crazy trading

[St Ick]

We could've had Mac, Dal, Hartung, Taylor, Langdon.

Instead, we got Savage, Dunstan, Acres, Eli & Longer.

We certainly didn't lose out in that period, time will tell if we won it, at this stage, we are sitting 50/50 with only potential keeping us in it.

I will admit that Hawks did well to snag Mac, as he was what they were missing. Losing Savage won't hurt them as much as it will help us. As for Garlett and Hartung, talk about potential laden with issues!

[Con Gorozidis]

Bump

Just to reiterate - in the match from this thread was born - there were 17 Lions players with under 20 games experience.

So essentially a TAC cup opposition that Big Mac played against.

[Pleasing]

The McEvoy Trade was effectively this see below

St Kilda
Gain
Savage
Dunstan - 18
Acres - 19

Lose
Mc Evoy
Hartung - 24
Ceglar - 59

Haw
Gain
Mc Evoy - StK
Hartung - 24
Ceglar - 59

Lose
Savage
Dunstan - 18
Franklin - FA Comp 19 - Syd

So Sydney are the clear winners in this if we forget about the Salary Cap grief they will feel down the road. They get Franklin for nothing but this gives Hawks the currency to chase McEvoy.

Hawks gave up a lot losing Franklin and their First Round pick but made the most out of a bad situation and addressed a need that might sneak them another flag while they are at the top and Hartung looks like a direct replacement for Savage.

Saints built for the future and consequently took the greatest risk if Dunstan and Acres live up to their pre-draft billing then we will win on this trade but that won't be known for a few years yet. Given the state of our list, drastic action was needed so I support the philosophy but no doubt this trade will be constantly questioned over the next couple of years as McEvoy does the job for the Hawks and they vie for flags, while our young draftees try to find their feet in a bottom of the ladder team. I expect we will be pulling our hair out everytime a commentator mentions McEvoy and what a brilliant trade that was for the Hawks some will no doubt point to this as the reason for our demise. I can hear Brian Taylor - Dwayne and Tony Shaw already. By the time our youngsters are making an impression everyone will have forgotten how we got them and they will just be bundled in with all the other kids we picked up early in the draft for finishing down near the bottom of the ladder.

[dragit]

Good post Pleasing…

Add to this 2011 & 2012, we have

Given up (8)
Picks 12, 20, 24, 25, 48, Goddard, McEvoy, Dal Santo

Gained (13)
Hickey, White, Lee, Wright, Dunstan, Acres, Savage, Delaney, Saad, Milera, Ross, Longer, Bruce

Pelchen seems to playing a weight of numbers game. Clearly every player you draft is a risk, even in the first round… by bringing in 13 players we should find a few very good players while also plugging a few gaping holes in the list.

2 key backs, 2 key forwards, 2 ruckmen, 2 small forwards and 5 young mids. Very likely that in 3 years time 8+ of these players are in our starting 22.

[SaintPav]

Pleasing, I actually called AW one Sat arvo about 4 years back to correct Tony Shaw on his assertion that we only got good draft picks because we finished bottom.

I used the Dal trade (pick 13 for Barry Hall) as an example.....

his response was along the lines of:"yeah, but.......

It will happen as you say it will...

[Con Gorozidis]

Terrific post Pleasing.

And I agree with dragit.

Pelchens philosophy to recruiting is very obvious when you sit back and look at it.
It's a numbers game - recruit a surplus of youngish players in each position and let them jostle it out.
After a few years the best in each position will become clear and you churn through the rest.

[plugger66]

I always thought it was quality over quantity. I still reckon pelchen has taken pretty big risks epecially with players like White and Hickey. Even the Saad Milera deal in the end hasnt really done anything for the club. It will take at least 3 more years to know if it works. Hopefully it does.

[Con Gorozidis]

I always thought it was quality over quantity. I still reckon pelchen has taken pretty big risks epecially with players like White and Hickey. Even the Saad Milera deal in the end hasnt really done anything for the club. It will take at least 3 more years to know if it works. Hopefully it does.

How do you determine 'quality' plugger exactly? A crystal ball? A séance? Gut feel? Interviews?
Despite increases in data, screening and interviews etc - Drafting is a still very inexact science - especially outside the top 5 or so.

If there was a magic formula for 'quality' everyone would be doing it.

Pelchen understands this and thus treats it like a numbers game.

The more balls you have in lotto - the better the odds.

The Saad Milera deal looked good early - but looks pretty bad atm - I agree with that one.

But its a numbers game - you cant get 10/10 right - if you get 6/10 right - you've done well.

Our problem from 2006-2011 was we got well under 5/10 right.

[plugger66]

I always thought it was quality over quantity. I still reckon pelchen has taken pretty big risks epecially with players like White and Hickey. Even the Saad Milera deal in the end hasnt really done anything for the club. It will take at least 3 more years to know if it works. Hopefully it does.

How do you determine 'quality' plugger exactly? A crystal ball? A séance? Gut feel? Interviews?
Despite increases in data, screening and interviews etc - Drafting is a still very inexact science - especially outside the top 5 or so.

If there was a magic formula for 'quality' everyone would be doing it.

Pelchen understands this and thus treats it like a numbers game.

The more balls you have in lotto - the better the odds.

The Saad Milera deal looked good early - but looks pretty bad atm - I agree with that one.

But its a numbers game - you cant get 10/10 right - if you get 6/10 right - you've done well.

Our problem from 2006-2011 was we got well under 5/10 right.

Obviously no one knows the quality before they play but the odds increase as the picks get higher. We have no idea yet if the deal involving Hickey will work. It may but getting 2 players for pick 12 is no good if they play like pick 112. I would suggest no one would swap pick one when we got Rooy but plenty would swap pick 4 when the Tigers got fiora. yes its a guessing game but getting more players for low picks only works if at least one make it. If they are 21 and 22 on the list its better to take the punt on the original lower pic but its all hindsight but I for one arent that excited by quantity.

By the way Lotto is a complete lottery, picking players from the draft at least has some science to it. Pick 1 in lotto is the same as pick 45. Dont think its the same in the draft.

[Junior]

I always thought it was quality over quantity. I still reckon pelchen has taken pretty big risks epecially with players like White and Hickey. Even the Saad Milera deal in the end hasnt really done anything for the club. It will take at least 3 more years to know if it works. Hopefully it does.

How do you determine 'quality' plugger exactly? A crystal ball? A séance? Gut feel? Interviews?
Despite increases in data, screening and interviews etc - Drafting is a still very inexact science - especially outside the top 5 or so.

If there was a magic formula for 'quality' everyone would be doing it.

Pelchen understands this and thus treats it like a numbers game.

The more balls you have in lotto - the better the odds.

The Saad Milera deal looked good early - but looks pretty bad atm - I agree with that one.

But its a numbers game - you cant get 10/10 right - if you get 6/10 right - you've done well.

Our problem from 2006-2011 was we got well under 5/10 right.

So drafting is an inexact science, I do agree with this yet despite the screening and interviews and data used by our recruiters you were happy to write of our first round draft pick after not even half a game.

Though the magic formula was country kid/public school = Gun especially if they have crap parents.

I guess we will all know more in three or so years how the Pelchen method has worked out, but I support the path they have taken as urgent action was needed on our list.

[dragit]

I always thought it was quality over quantity. I still reckon pelchen has taken pretty big risks epecially with players like White and Hickey. Even the Saad Milera deal in the end hasnt really done anything for the club. It will take at least 3 more years to know if it works. Hopefully it does.

We have been in a pretty unique (dire) situation regarding the list… which has really prompted such an aggressive list management approach.

Adding one top 25 player each year was clearly not going to cut it if we are hoping to rise up the ladder in the next 10 years.

The Saad/Milera/Ross deal was a very low risk move… even if the Saad & Milera don't make it, we've ended up with a young mid who I am sure was on our radar at pick 20 anyway, players taken in this gap are Hayden Crozier, Josh Bootsma, Murray Newman & Henry Schade - although we'll never know if we'd have taken them, it will interesting to see how they turn out… Crozier looks the goods IMO.

Picks 12 & 13 basically downgraded to 24 & 26, plus 2 highly rated players in Lee & Hickey, is not a huge risk IMO… as you can easily end up with 2 duds at 12 & 13. Same again, we'll never know but we can keep an eye on Kristian Jaksch & Jesse Lonergan for fun I'm pretty confident Wright will be a very good player, hopefully at least one of Hickey, Lee & White come good too… if more than one comes good then it will be a massive success.

We've taken some risks, but we've desperately needed to do something… whether it works or not we'll find out later, but I appreciate the aggressive approach as I reckon we were staring at 7-8 spoons as the list was shaping.

[lloyd21]

Pretty cofident Kristan Jaksch will be in Melbourne (vic) next year coming home Plowman same both uncontracted hopefully one or both saints players.

[Con Gorozidis]

I always thought it was quality over quantity. I still reckon pelchen has taken pretty big risks epecially with players like White and Hickey. Even the Saad Milera deal in the end hasnt really done anything for the club. It will take at least 3 more years to know if it works. Hopefully it does.

How do you determine 'quality' plugger exactly? A crystal ball? A séance? Gut feel? Interviews?
Despite increases in data, screening and interviews etc - Drafting is a still very inexact science - especially outside the top 5 or so.

If there was a magic formula for 'quality' everyone would be doing it.

Pelchen understands this and thus treats it like a numbers game.

The more balls you have in lotto - the better the odds.

The Saad Milera deal looked good early - but looks pretty bad atm - I agree with that one.

But its a numbers game - you cant get 10/10 right - if you get 6/10 right - you've done well.

Our problem from 2006-2011 was we got well under 5/10 right.

So drafting is an inexact science, I do agree with this yet despite the screening and interviews and data used by our recruiters you were happy to write of our first round draft pick after not even half a game.

Though the magic formula was country kid/public school = Gun especially if they have crap parents.

I guess we will all know more in three or so years how the Pelchen method has worked out, but I support the path they have taken as urgent action was needed on our list.

Junior not heard a peep out of you ever - but mention private schools and you just fly off the handle!

Hilarious that this topic is so close to your heart .

I am for all treating each kid on his merits. And we shall see! Hopefully I am wrong and I will enjoy eating humble pie. But so far your rantings and ravings haven't swayed me at all.

[plugger66]

I always thought it was quality over quantity. I still reckon pelchen has taken pretty big risks epecially with players like White and Hickey. Even the Saad Milera deal in the end hasnt really done anything for the club. It will take at least 3 more years to know if it works. Hopefully it does.

We have been in a pretty unique (dire) situation regarding the list… which has really prompted such an aggressive list management approach.

Adding one top 25 player each year was clearly not going to cut it if we are hoping to rise up the ladder in the next 10 years.

The Saad/Milera/Ross deal was a very low risk move… even if the Saad & Milera don't make it, we've ended up with a young mid who I am sure was on our radar at pick 20 anyway, players taken in this gap are Hayden Crozier, Josh Bootsma, Murray Newman & Henry Schade - although we'll never know if we'd have taken them, it will interesting to see how they turn out… Crozier looks the goods IMO.

Picks 12 & 13 basically downgraded to 24 & 26, plus 2 highly rated players in Lee & Hickey, is not a huge risk IMO… as you can easily end up with 2 duds at 12 & 13. Same again, we'll never know but we can keep an eye on Kristian Jaksch & Jesse Lonergan for fun I'm pretty confident Wright will be a very good player, hopefully at least one of Hickey, Lee & White come good too… if more than one comes good then it will be a massive success.

We've taken some risks, but we've desperately needed to do something… whether it works or not we'll find out later, but I appreciate the aggressive approach as I reckon we were staring at 7-8 spoons as the list was shaping.

I never take notice of who other teams got for the pick we traded after about pick 10. Yes I know we had a poor list due to poor trading but we did choose to lose a player in the preformed age group in ben. You say it isnt a huge risk in Lee and Hickey but if they dont make it it then becomes a bigger risk because we then need Wright and white to make it. 4 GOPS isnt going to help us at all unless there are stars around them. Like I said earlier its far to early to tell but its a really risky statergy IMO. Hope the risk pays huge dividends.

[St Ick]

Pretty cofident Kristan Jaksch will be in Melbourne (vic) next year coming home Plowman same both uncontracted hopefully one or both saints players.

I'll take it!

[evo]

I was one of the FEW on here that never rated Ben, now he has gone it seems to be fashionable... strange. Having said that I think he will be an upgrade on Bailey for the Dorks.

[St Ick]

The McEvoy Trade was effectively this see below

St Kilda
Gain
Savage
Dunstan - 18
Acres - 19

Lose
Mc Evoy
Hartung - 24
Ceglar - 59

Haw
Gain
Mc Evoy - StK
Hartung - 24
Ceglar - 59

Lose
Savage
Dunstan - 18
Franklin - FA Comp 19 - Syd

So Sydney are the clear winners in this if we forget about the Salary Cap grief they will feel down the road. They get Franklin for nothing but this gives Hawks the currency to chase McEvoy.

Hawks gave up a lot losing Franklin and their First Round pick but made the most out of a bad situation and addressed a need that might sneak them another flag while they are at the top and Hartung looks like a direct replacement for Savage.

Saints built for the future and consequently took the greatest risk if Dunstan and Acres live up to their pre-draft billing then we will win on this trade but that won't be known for a few years yet. Given the state of our list, drastic action was needed so I support the philosophy but no doubt this trade will be constantly questioned over the next couple of years as McEvoy does the job for the Hawks and they vie for flags, while our young draftees try to find their feet in a bottom of the ladder team. I expect we will be pulling our hair out everytime a commentator mentions McEvoy and what a brilliant trade that was for the Hawks some will no doubt point to this as the reason for our demise. I can hear Brian Taylor - Dwayne and Tony Shaw already. By the time our youngsters are making an impression everyone will have forgotten how we got them and they will just be bundled in with all the other kids we picked up early in the draft for finishing down near the bottom of the ladder.

We never lost Ceglar, he was never available to us as he was a promoted rookie. We could've had Marsh, Honeychurch, Templeton (most likely considering where we rated him) or Langdon but not Ceglar. Would've expected Hartung or Taylor @ 24 for us.

Other than that, good post.

[plugger66]

I was one of the FEW on here that never rated Ben, now he has gone it seems to be fashionable... strange. Having said that I think he will be an upgrade on Bailey for the Dorks.

Exactly. Amazing how many say he is no loss. At least you and Rols made it clear you didnt rate him when he was with us.

[bergholt]

Pretty cofident Kristan Jaksch will be in Melbourne (vic) next year coming home Plowman same both uncontracted hopefully one or both saints players.

What makes you think they'll come home, let alone that they might end up at the Saints?

[Junior]

Junior not heard a peep out of you ever - but mention private schools and you just fly off the handle!

Hilarious that this topic is so close to your heart .

I am for all treating each kid on his merits. And we shall see! Hopefully I am wrong and I will enjoy eating humble pie. But so far your rantings and ravings haven't swayed me at all.[/quote]


What is close to my heart is the St Kilda football club, could not give a stuff if the players are from country, city, private or public school, black or white, catholic , Muslim, Jewish, straight or gay. Only thing I care about is can they play the game.

You are totally ignoring the facts of what are being said just like you have refused to nominate who we should have drafted. I will reiterate what my issue is so hopefully it sinks in for you this time. My issue is that you wrote off Billings based on a practice match where he played 40% game time. Nothing to do where he came from if you had of said the same about Dunstan or Templeton I would have argued for them. There is no way I could tell if Billings was soft from that are as he barely got near the ball, so I am going with what I have seen in the past.

So how many times have you seen Billings play?

As for not posting much, not everyone can post as often as you. Am currently laid up at home so have all day and night if i see fit to post, so you will find that I will be posting more regularly for a few weeks. Have no interest in just posting to get my number of posts up.

As for me you have no idea what my background is, so just because I defend a player do not assume things.

Anyway I hope you are wrong as I would hate to think that our highest draft pick in years was not going to make it.

[lloyd21]

Pretty cofident Kristan Jaksch will be in Melbourne (vic) next year coming home Plowman same both uncontracted hopefully one or both saints players.

What makes you think they'll come home, let alone that they might end up at the Saints?

Did not say it would be " Saints " said hopefully it was Saints

Why will they come home .. well they have declined to be contracted beyond this year , manager has stated they will consider their contract at the end of the season

Have heard Graeme Allan talk about the GWS and they are resigned to losing some players his words not mine to going home factor.

[Pleasing]

I reckon the quality over quantity debate is a luxury only teams with half way decent lists can afford an incremental approach wasn't going to work for us. Pelchens strategy in extracting multiple picks in the teens and twentys for slightly higher picks or established players is about rebuilding the base of the side. The real cream of the draft is to be found in the top 10 and Billings is the first chance we have had at the top 10 since Pelchan arrived and we held on to that pick. No doubt Pelchan sees a couple more top 10's coming our way over the next couple of years. But definately this is the risk and concern with the strategy. Where are our next batch of elite stars coming from.

As an alternative we could have taken a far more passive or traditional approach and just waited for the draft and picked the best available, let our vetrans see out their careers at the Saints and perhaps traded to fill some obvious gaps in the side.

Instead we have been far more strategic and adventurous than most clubs and have taken advantage as much as possible of the distortions to draft that the AFL have introduced over the past few years. First the expansion clubs pre-listing and draft concessions by extracting multiple picks/players from clubs with such an abundance of picks that they consider selections in the 20's worthless. Second by using the Free Agency compensation rules to get some earlier picks for players who won't be around come the next finals tilt.

In the past failure led to priority picks now it reaps just one good kid a year, that would be a long long rebuild if we just let nature take its course.

At least we appear to have a plan.

[ROLS-LEE]

I was one of the FEW on here that never rated Ben, now he has gone it seems to be fashionable... strange. Having said that I think he will be an upgrade on Bailey for the Dorks.

Exactly. Amazing how many say he is no loss. At least you and Rols made it clear you didnt rate him when he was with us.

Thanks plugs.

Evo is right as well. Ben will be an upgrade to Bailey. Ben does have some good attributes like endurance and marking. It just that at the saints we either needed more from an experiended player in which he was not delivering. Anyhow when Ben finally hits his peak (if he does) he would be no benefit to us like Minson was to the dogs last year. When dogs will be contending Minson will be too old.
We need a good group of players to blossom together. Not years apart.

[samoht]

If Longer wins his own football 15 times plus on average around the ground and takes important marks (as McEvoy does), then we're ahead.
McEvoy was too slow, couldn't get to contests, etc... - but still got plenty of his own football.