Why we shouldn't draft Aish

[Ned Stark]

I have been an avid observer of this forum for many years. This is actually my first post, so bear with me. I should preface my remarks by confirming that I am a South Australian, but have been residing in Melbourne for the past 5 years. I am also a Saints member, to the extent that this adds any weight to my bona fides!

Ok, I don't think we should draft Aish with pick 3 (if he is available). Before I am accused of being an ignorant fool, hear me out.

I remember about 13-14 years ago there was a skinny, prodigiously talented teenage wingman playing in the SANFL. He played for Port Adelaide, a strong team who I think won the premiership the year that this kid burst onto the scene. This particular player was quick and skillful, could take a grab and had a raking left foot. He shot to prominence (from memory) with a 40 odd disposal game for the Magpies. Not bad for a skinny teenager playing against men. So good was this kid, that Richmond took him at pick 3 over Pavlich. His name was Aaron Fiora. I was living in Adelaide at the time and supported Matthew Pavlich's team, the Eagles. He was a 17 year kid dominating at CHF against men. However, Pav was double and triple teamed at the U18 championships and slipped down the order slightly, to Freo's everlasting delight. But I digress...

I see some possible similarities with Aish here. Quick, skillful wingmen always look great in good teams, which is precisely what Norwood have been for the past two years. Do I think Aish will end up like Fizz? No, not if he is developed properly in a good system and has good, strong bodied midfielders around him. But he does represent a risk, particularly given he will be developing in a struggling team for the first couple of years.

However the greatest risk, I think, is that he is a serious flight risk. The Aish name is royalty in South Australia. If he turns out to be half as good as everyone says, there will be a huge sentimental push to get him to the Crows (similar to the drive to get Ebert back to Port, but slightly different given he was over in WA). In two years time, when Aish's first contract ends, I think (regrettably) that the Crows will be challenging for the premiership and we will be in the middle of a rebuild/development phase. In the circumstances, I think there is at least a 60-70% chance of him becoming "homesick" and demanding a trade home to the Crows, who will gleefully offer pick 30 and a dud for him.

Of course I could be wrong about this. He could be a Ryan Griffin, another skinny croweater who became a gun and hasn't succumbed to "homesickness"!

I don't profess to be a draft watcher, but from what I have gleaned from all of the available market data, we would be better served drafting Kelly or Billings. It looks like Kelly could be a modern day Craig Bradley: not the hardest nut going around, but blessed with amazing running capacity and excellent skills. Billings sounds like a Stevie J style player. We can whack him on a forward flank for two years while he develops a tank, then have him rotating through the midfield like Stevie J now does.

I pose this question: is Aish so much better than Kelly or Billings that he is worth the material risk that we are effectively developing a player for the Crows' benefit? I, for one, will spend two years watching this kid play with a nagging doubt in the back of mind as to whether he will stay with us...

Anyhow, if we do draft Aish, I hope I am wrong and he develops into a midfielder of Griffin/O'Meara standard and, like me, develops reverse homesickness (ie sickness of living in bloody Adelaide!).

Interested to hear everyone's thoughts.

[karnaby]

G'day Ned, good 1st post.

I'm constantly scared of homesickness biting us on the bum. To my mind I'd always like us to go for a local kid rather than an interstater if they were ranked equally.

[Con Gorozidis]

Terrific post Ned.
Certainly raises some well thought out points.
I have been advocating for Aish but I am a bit uneasy and your post really is a thought provoker.

What is your position on Sharenberg ?

I also feel Kelly is a bit risky too.

I am starting to lean toward Billings slightly only based on gut.

[suss]

Have you seen much of Sharenberg? He would be in the mix no? (I have the same question con!)

[PADDLEPOP1001]

I Agree with you on this one,had thought that he would be a definite to go home in a couple of years!

[HitTheBoundary]

I don't want Aish either.

I really hope we take Billings.

[Jacks Back]

Great 1st post there Ned.

As far as the homesickness factor is concerned, I think that is a big possibility.

I reckon Melbourne were worried about that when they had first pick a few years ago which should have been Nic Nat but, because he was from WA they thought they would go with Watts. I still reckon if they had of got Nic Nat then he would have wanted to go home. So maybe you're damned if you do and damned if you don't.

[cannavaro17]

I want Sharenberg! Think it's more important to have a player like this than a winger.

[Ned Stark]

I haven't seen much of Sharenberg, apart from the youtube videos. Accordingly, take my comments with a generous pinch of salt.

Berg doesn't have the same sentimental issues associated with his name as Aish. I therefore think the risk is slightly lower for him. Nevertheless, the Crows and Power will keep tabs on him and both will be challenging in two years time, so will be an attractive proposition. The Crows have been chasing Pav for years and he resisted, but I get the sense now that players will be more proactive in seeking moves having seen the example of guys like Josh Caddy (kid no runs on the board at all, but was interviewing clubs like he was Chris Judd!).

Probably little risk that Berg will end up being a Fiora, as he seems to be a completely different sort of player...

[derby Street]

Great post Ned - can't disagree with anything. I am from S.A as well. Recent times there seems to be more & more of a go home factor.

[Con Gorozidis]

Good observation re Caddy.
That was annoying.
Hopefully that was short term based on the compromised drafts and the fact 16 of 18 clubs were effectively locked out of the early stages of the draft so were desperate for young talent giving the players of that age group heaps of power.

[joffaboy]

Welcome aboard Ned.

Dont know who to take, but I am soooooo glad we have this problem

[Jiminy Wagga]

Good to see we have another game of thrones fan! Let's hope the SS lynch mob don't behead you

[Nymeria]

[saintsRrising]

Welcome. Excellent first post.

I have not seen any of the kids first hand, and so it is great to gain considered opinions from others.

[Eastern]

Welcome Aboard Ned.

FWIW I think that Scharenberg will ultimately turn out to be the BEST player to come out of this years Draft. People will have to wiat 5-6 years to call me a Genius or a Dill !!

[Schillaci]

Great post. I have no idea as to who we should take and will leave it to others to comment though I had read about Aish's royal SA football bloodlines and had the thought he may return to SA at the earliest opportunity should we draft him. If in doubt perhaps homegrown talent is the way to go.

[gringo]

Welcome Aboard Ned.

FWIW I think that Scharenberg will ultimately turn out to be the BEST player to come out of this years Draft. People will have to wiat 5-6 years to call me a Genius or a Dill !!

I saw Scharenberg at last years carnival and he was too young to draft. I was hoping we could somehow manage to draft him so I hope we get him. Colquhoun and him linked up from the backline and drove the ball end to end. Schazza was a more complete and dominant player though. He is Goddard like.

[MCG-Unit]

I hope they take Scharenberg 190/89 - or Billings 184/78 at DP 3

Bigger bodied types, ready to go.

[Con Gorozidis]

Just watched videos of billings .
Great player but gee he looks little.
Is he really 184 ?

[gringo]

Just watched videos of billings .
Great player but gee he looks little.
Is he really 184 ?

He's a little guy from what i have seen but it might be that he has a big head so looks little bodied. He could be an Adam Schnieder type in my view so not sure how he would go as a mid. He is supposedly one of the most skilled in the draft and some have said could be the best player in it. The concern is he is like a bit of a lead up HFF so hard to use well, if he can adjust to a mid role he will be a steal, if not he's another small forward.

[Ghost Like]

Awesome post Ned. Agree with your concerns. Normally a strong club can hold on to their young guns, unfortunately we are going to be few years away from being one so we should be cautious with our drafts, taking into account those with a "going home" factor.

[MCG-Unit]

Yep Billings 183 or 184 depending what you read - he's not small

Doubt he or Scharenberg will have any problems transitioning to the midfield

[Jiminy Wagga]

Just watched videos of billings .
Great player but gee he looks little.
Is he really 184 ?

The only footage I could find is the ais v nz on youtube? If you could post a link that would be great!

[Eastern]

I have reservations about Billings & Kelly. When the whips were cracking in the National Carnival they were both overshadowed by Mitch Honeychurch. Mitch is smaller and skinnier than both of them but was still able to be named Vic Metro's MVP for the carnival.

Whist Billings & Kelly were hovering around the Forward Flanks & Pockets this skinny kid was doing the grunt work in the middle. He also kicked more goals than both of them. Perhaps we should look at him as a 2nd or 3rd Round pick !!