What I reckon about 2014...

[BigMart]

First

We need more luck with injury to key position players

Second

We need players to continue to develop

Third

We need some tough calls, on retirement and trades

We don't look half bad if we score a couple?!

Backs

Talls
We obviously need a Key Full Back, at the 23-26yo about 193-196/96-100kg with a defensive mindset.... We have been smashed every week by a key fwd.
Gwilt as a deep number 3, Sam Fisher as a High number 2

Another back up key defender as a back up FB and Simpkin as a back up number 2 and Ferguson as a back up number three... He must develop

Medium tall
Roberton, super impressive
Shenton, Siposs,, Dunnell, Webster, Murdoch or Ferguson as back ups

Utility Defender....small/medium/tall swingman
Dempster

Smalls
Geary, Wright
Webster as 1 back up... Need another

Rucks
McEvoy #1
Stanley #2 and fwd
Hickey back up
Pierce as development
Perhaps we need a mature age back up?

Mids
First group of 5
Montagna, Steven, Armitage, (Dal or Trade), Newnes
Second Group
Ross, Ray, Curran, Wright, NEW

Back Up
Dunnell, Saunders, Minchington, New, New/Siposs, Milera

Forwards

Tall
Riewoldt
Lee
Stanley... FP/2nd Ruck/utility
Back up
Maister, NEW, White

Medium
Gilbert or Trade?
Back up
Siposs, Murdoch, Markworth, Dunnell

Small
Schnieder, Curran
Back up
Minchington, Saunders, Milera

Full strength team IMO

B: Gwilt -------- New -------- Dempster
HB: Roberton ---Fisher -------- Geary

C: Newnes ------Armitage ----- Montagna (c)
Foll: McEvoy ----- New/Dal ------ Steven

HF: Schnieder ---- Riewoldt ----- Gilbert/New
F: Curran -----------Lee -------- Stanley

Int: Ross -------- Wright -------- New/Ray
Sub: Siposs ----- Webster ------ Saunders

Emerg
Minchington, Murdoch, Markworth, Ferguson

Back Up
Maister, Simpkin, Milera, Shenton, Dunnell

Developing
White, Pierce, Draft Picks

Get as many games into players under 22 as possible.... With trades... Only accept a trade if it comes out on our terms and we benefit...

[dragit]

Not trying to be rude but… what is it that you reckon?

We need less injuries, more development and we should retire guys that are over 32?

The 22 you've listed is pretty similar to the one currently getting belted weekly by 10 goals… not that there is much we can do about it with the current list… I think missing Dal & Lenny could make things worse.

I'm more interested in finding out all the players we should be taking in the next draft, not finding our in 2 years that we should have taken the player from pick 40 at pick 21…

Which players will be guns that will go late in the draft?

[bobmurray]

We only have to wait about 3 and a half more months and we'll know exactly what list we've got for 2014

The NAB AFL Draft will be held on Thursday, November 21, at the Gold Coast Convention Centre.

The Rookie draft will be moved forward to Wednesday, November 27.

Not sure when the pre season draft is..

There will have been over a 100 drafts on here by the time we get to the real one.

[st_Trav_ofWA]

The last line " only accept trade if it comes out on our terms and we benefit". I think that's pretty much the aim of every team ... I mean I don't think any team really go's in to a trade saying " man I hope we get ripped by this mob" ... The fact of it is now days trades only happen if both clubs feel that they are getting a fair deal out of it otherwise you end up with the Luke Ball situation ..


What we need for 2014 is a continuation of what we have already put in place

[BigMart]

I know you just trying to have a go Dragit.... You're not a fan

How many changes do you reckon we can make in one off season period.... To the senior team

As I have indicated, about 4 will do it... And about another 5-6 to the developing list... The transition needs to be over three years, with succession planning for Rooey and Fisher

We will be similar, but can be much better.... We have been competitive for periods in most games, and have done so without two key defensive posts... A fit Fisher and a FB will help there.... Also with 1/3 of the team with very little experience....

We are a better side than most of us think IMO

Continued development of all U22s will add more depth and some more fresh blood will add more talent.
Siposs, Stanley, Simpkin will be important as they have a lot of improvement in them....

We will continue to develop in 2014 and improve...... Dip again in the following years before a sharp increase after that

So for 2014
I predict 6-8 wins and three future stars unveiled
Newnes, Wright, Aish

Steven to settle in at A Grade and Armo/Mac/Geary consolidate as B Graders

[noob]

We don't really need a mature key back now if people are saying on what was presented the other night (Golden age year 2018) by then the kid/s we develop will be 24 and ready.

[BigMart]

WA person

Don't think every team can go into a trade expecting to be a winner......

We didn't win the Hickey trade, we wanted him... Therefore paid overs....

We would not have won the Brown trade, we wanted him and WCE held the whip hand

We lost the Lovett trade... A FRP for a 27yo who never had a top ten B&F finish? We desperately wanted pace

We lost on the Ball trade, and was always going to....

Did we lose on the Cripps trade? Pick 24 and 2 years development.... Pick 43.... I think we lost

Tom Lynch.... Pick 13 three years and pick 37 in return??

Sometimes in a trade, a club has to accept the offer on the table and pay unders or overs to get an outcome....

We won on the Gehrig trade, because he wanted out of WCE.... Pick 18 for an AA 195cm 24yo 130 game player?

In the case of our tradeable players, we are not desperate to get rid of them.... Other clubs would have to satisfy our needs.... Or nothing
Like WCE did to us last year

With trades.... There's often a winner or loser...

[BigMart]

I think we need a key back.... In the meantime

A competitive team develops quicker than a bottom team... Winning games, being competitive builds a culture needed for success

We have cap space ATM that needs to be spent.... Why would we not fill an obvious need?

[joffaboy]

Who is the Parker and Darling of this year BigMart?

Tell us now or will you wait for two years like you did with the above two?

[vacuous space]

BM was complaining about not taking Darling the day of the draft. I remember him correctly pointed out that the player we took instead didn't have a photo on the draft tracker.

[Cairnsman]

I think we will go better in 2014 if we can get get some players that are better than the ones we've got now or if we can make the players we've got now play better.

[borderbarry]

I agree with a lot of what you are posting BM, but a few points. McEvoy should be just as mature as a ruckman as he is going to get, and the three younger ruckmen will have had an extra pre-season, and the benefits of having played the 2013 season. An extra ruckman on the list only if Mcevoy is traded out.
We desperately need a fullback, but I believe we should make a play for Darcy Gardiner, considered the best big defender in the draft and we will have several years to develop him by the look of it. We will however need to trade for a mid first round pick to get him.
We should try and get the best mids we can in the draft, and trade for the best player/s we can get. I still think Jonathon Paton is within our reach.

[Teflon]

we're rooted for 3

[vacuous space]

I still think Jonathon Paton is within our reach.

I'd rather go after the Boyd pick and I think GWS would rather trade that. I'd move just about anyone on the list other than Nick Riewoldt or Jack Steven.

[st_Trav_ofWA]

Vic person ...

No dah in hinesight there is always a winner and a loser in trades but at the time of the trade both parties are at some point satisfied with what transpires otherwise you get the Luke Ball situation ... All you have done is state the bloody obvious and claim it as some kind of master stroke plan you came up with all by yourself .. At the same time covering your own backside with an each way bet ... If we trade and it works in our favour you beat your chest telling everyone " see I told you" if we trade and it goes against us you best your chest saying "if only they did what I said"...

In the trades you mention it's all subjective on who wins or who loses .. Hickey could be the next dean cox in two years time so we win ... Cripps could well be delisted next year and Saunders could well be a consistent player for us .. Tom Lynch could be known forever as that guy who once kicked a crapload of goals against GWS and did nothing since where Newnes could be a 200 gamer for us ... It's far to early to say who won and lost on those...

[st_Trav_ofWA]

I think we will go better in 2014 if we can get get some players that are better than the ones we've got now or if we can make the players we've got now play better.

I agree ...

[bergholt]

we're rooted for 3

Yup, I reckon. Can't see how we could possibly win 6 or 8 games next year - who are we going to beat?

Our experienced players might be still there physically but mentally is another story. The game is 50% mental at the highest level, and without having the prospect of finals at the end of the year they just won't have the guts to tough out tight ones. Hence we lose some games we could have won, which pushes motivation down still further. It takes a few years to come back out of that spiral of defeat.

[skeptic]

we're rooted for 3

Yup, I reckon. Can't see how we could possibly win 6 or 8 games next year - who are we going to beat?

2 Wins against GWS, 1 win against GC, 2 wins against Melbourne and 1 fluke

Can I rise to an occasion or what

[GeorgeYoung27]

We would have won 6-8 this year with the Bulldogs draw. We will only play 1 side lower than 9th twice this year (GC) and didn't get home games against some of the weaker interstate sides (Lions, Crows or GWS). It does help explain why we only have 3 wins.

[BackFromUSA]

My prediction re the list. I cannot believe that I actually did a spreadsheet to predict this. I am sure many will disagree. Just my opinion on what I would do IF I was asked.

Four Retirements:

Fisher, Milne, Blake, Kosi

Keep for experience:

Hayes, Montagna, Schneider, Jones, Ray (Midfield) Gilbert, Dempster (Backs) Maister, Riewoldt (Forwards) - all will be phased out 2014-6

Mid-Aged Players (reaching their peak in 2014-2020)

Steven, Armitage (Midfield) Geary, Roberton, Simpkin (Backs) Stanley, Hickey (Rucks) Lee (Forwards)

Young guns:

Newnes, Ross, Curren, Saunders, Murdoch, Shenton (Midfield) Lever, Webster, Wright (Backs) Siposs, Minchington, Markworth, White (Forwards) Pierce (Ruck)

Rookie Upgrades:

Shenton, Curren and Minchington

Rookies released and potentially reselected at a later stage:

Ferguson, Staley

Trades:

Dal Santo + 4th rounder (or Milera) for Reece Conca and Ben Griffith (Richmond) / or with Milera for the required 4th rounder (to Adelaide / Port Adelaide)

McEvoy + Gwilt for Jon Patton + 3rd round draft pick (GWS) - assumes that GWS get Boyd at #1 and / or Buddy and this gives them a ruck and a mature back

Delist if trading doesn't open up enough extra spots:

In order - Saad (assume banned), Ledger, Dennis-Lane, Dunnell (could also be thrown in as steak knives in trade deals)

Free Agency:

Experienced ruckman - Max Bailey (Hawthorn) assuming we trade McEvoy

Mature Midfielder - Colin Sylvia (Melbourne) assuming we trade Dal Santo

Trading using picks and/or players:

Mid Aged Gorilla Defender: Luke Delaney (North Melbourne) - for 3rd rounder (and maybe one of our to be delisted players as sweetener)

Draft:

Pick 3: Midfielder

Pick 19/20: Midfielder

Other selections will be best available.

SUMMARY:

Out: Kosi, Blake, Milne, Fisher (retired) Dal Santo; McEvoy; Gwilt; Milera (Trades) Saad (delist), Ledger, Dennis-Lane, Dunnell (12 spots)

In: Conca, Sylvia (Midfield) Griffiths, Delaney (Backs); Patton (Forward); Bailey (Ruck); Curren; Minchington; Shenton; Estimated Picks 3, 19, 37 (12 spots)

BEST TEAM WITHOUT INJURY:

Wright Griffiths Dempster
Roberton Simpkin Geary
Montagna Armitage Conca
Sylvia Riewoldt Schneider
Minchington Patton Maister

Hickey
Hayes
Steven

Gilbert, Newnes, Geary, Ray

SECONDS TEAM:

Webster Lever (pick 37)
Murdoch Delaney Shenton
Saunders Ross (pick 3)
Siposs Lee Markworth
Stanley White (pick 19)

Bailey
Jones
Curren

Pierce (rookie 1) (rookie 2) (rookie 3) (rookie 4) (rookie 5)

Note with an average injury list of 4 to 10 players per week there will be plenty of opportunities for our very young players to get senior games with priority given to players that will have to step in for Hayes, Riewoldt, Schneider, Dempster - who will need replacing within a year or two.

[saintspremiers]

I love your optimism dumping 12 players. I reckon it will only be 10 but exciting times is the off season when you are a crap side. .

The day after the granny we are third on the ladder!!!

[plugger66]

WA person. What arrogance.

[BackFromUSA]

I love your optimism dumping 12 players. I reckon it will only be 10 but exciting times is the off season when you are a crap side. .

The day after the granny we are third on the ladder!!!

Well technically it is really 9 spots if you look at

Curren for Ledger
Minchington for Dennis-Lane
Shenton for Dunnell (and I am not totally convinced on this one)

Plus we have no choice on Saad unless we waste a space on our list.

Then there is little we can do about 4 retirements - I believe Fisher has ongoing injury restrictions that will force him to retire although I am not privvy to any information.

In essence I am trading 4 players

Dal - is replaced by Conca
McEvoy - is replaced by Bailey
Gwilt - replaced by Delaney a 194 strong centre half back
Milera - replaced by Sylvia (with more midfield run)

Kosi is replaced by Patton
Fisher is replaced by Griffith as a 200cm full back and we have an ample supply of mid sized running defenders these days.

Milne and Blake are replaced by young talent coming through like Minchington and Simpkin.

[spert]

What we need is to win more games in the first half of the season than in 2013..otherwise any remaining fair-weather supporters and potential members will drop away and sponsors will be even harder to attract. We need strength and maturity in the midfield, backline and forward line, plus a few younger players to go the next step. Watters needs to work on his defensive game and midfield setups, as it's year three for him and apart from bringing through and developing players, he also needs to start stamping his style of play (if any) on the team..it's all going to be a bloody big ask IMHO

[CURLY]

WA person

Don't think every team can go into a trade expecting to be a winner......

We didn't win the Hickey trade, we wanted him... Therefore paid overs....

We would not have won the Brown trade, we wanted him and WCE held the whip hand

We lost the Lovett trade... A FRP for a 27yo who never had a top ten B&F finish? We desperately wanted pace

We lost on the Ball trade, and was always going to....

Did we lose on the Cripps trade? Pick 24 and 2 years development.... Pick 43.... I think we lost

Tom Lynch.... Pick 13 three years and pick 37 in return??

Sometimes in a trade, a club has to accept the offer on the table and pay unders or overs to get an outcome....

We won on the Gehrig trade, because he wanted out of WCE.... Pick 18 for an AA 195cm 24yo 130 game player?

In the case of our tradeable players, we are not desperate to get rid of them.... Other clubs would have to satisfy our needs.... Or nothing
Like WCE did to us last year

With trades.... There's often a winner or loser...

How the hell do you work out we paid overs for Hickey? Seems to me we did ver ywell out of it.