Bottomed Out?

[Beno88]

Since our last win (vs Melbourne R13) we have had the second biggest drop off in form in the competition.

From Round 14 we have been a six goal worse side than what we were in Rounds 1-13. Only Essendon has had a bigger drop off this season.

Our draw has been tougher in the second half of the year and we have had a lot of injuries, but the fall away has been huge.

Rounds 1-13
Ave Score : 84 vs 93
Ave Goals : 12 vs 13
Ave Shots : 24 vs 26
Qtrs Won : 25
% : 89.80

Rounds 14-21
Ave Score : 65 vs 111
Ave Goals : 9 vs 16
Ave Shots : 19 vs 30
Qtrs Won : 5
% : 58.25

To outline how poor we've been in since our last win, Melbourne's percentage in that time is 57.80%, they average 65 points a game and they've won 8 quarters.

Let's hope this can be improved, otherwise we'll be lucky to win a game in 2014.

[bigcarl]

That is bad. Mindset plays a big part in sport and ours is shot to pieces. We feel bad about ourselves and it shows in the results.

[saintspremiers]

I'm expecting a total of 5 wins in the next 2 seasons.

Going to be tough to watch, but every quarter won will be like a small victory.

Just need those 3 quarter efforts, problem is the "bad" quarter is the one that blows out the margin generally.

[gringo]

Having the chance of playing finals is a big motivation and the policy of playing the kids has been put in place.

[Bluthy]

The second half blowouts have been disappointing. But its indicative of a young team that played hard contested footy for the first half of the year and just fell short (unlike Melbourne who played soft dishonest footy). Injuries and length of the season have taken their toll. Next year they should be a bit more developed and be competitive deeper into games and deeper into the season.

[spert]

I'm not seeing many positives, although I want to. I was encouraged by Curren and Hickey against the Swans, and those two will step up in the next season or two...otherwise I don't see much else coming through. We have a disfunctional forward line and midfield, with an undermanned backline who are being hammered each week thanks to the ineffective midfield, and Lenny I think has had it. Steven will improve even more, but I don't think Armo will. The four small forwards have all failed- Milne, TDL, Milera and Saad for whatever reason, and Schneider's injuries mean he has never recovered his old form..who is going to kick the goals?

I'm not convinced Watters will take us anywhere, and 2014 will be pretty lean I expect, unless a few players have breakout seasons, and hopefully we can keep more experienced and stronger players on the field such as Maister, Gilbert, Fisher- but I reckon we need to recruit one or two stronger mature players- 24-26 y.o. to shore up the deficiency.

[dragit]

Next year they should be a bit more developed and be competitive deeper into games and deeper into the season.

If you have a look at GWS & GCS, it seems that is takes about 3 - 4 years (50+ games) before this starts happening… Our young guys are all still mainly between 0 & 25 games… this is why Milne & CJ just have to make way so that we can fast track experience IMO

and Schneider's injuries mean he has never recovered his old form..who is going to kick the goals

I reckon his 50 disposals and 3 goals in about 3 hours of footy have been pretty impressive… just needs to shake off the injuries, hopefully he can next year.

I think the next 2 years won't be much better than this one, this could be the first year of a 3 year bottom out. We need a few of Lee, White, Markworth, Hickey to to really surprise us if we are to start heading up the ladder any time soon. Newnes & Wright look very likely to become good players IMO.

[AP Erebus]

I think a good example of how to do it and how quickly it can improve is the Bulldogs...

2011 they just missed the finals
2012 they won 5... but GWS and GC were still very raw.
2013 they've won 7 and clearly improved...

I see similarities to us, just we are a year later.

It's going to be tough for a few years, and SW has been pretty adamant on saying how many preseasons you need to be able to maintain pressure for an entire game (4-5).

I'm excited about the future of this club and our list.

[mambo2706]

The kids are only going to get better with experience. Hopefully injuries to key players won't be as bad next year. Recruit a big backman and a gun midfielder and I think the near future will be promising.

[borderbarry]

If we could get Darcy Gardiner, who is said to be the best big defender, and Dayle Garlett, who would be ready to go straight into the seniors, and Markworth debuts and does well, we would be having a much beter year than 2013. Add to that the improvement of the youngsters, and we are on our way.

[gringo]

We wanted Sam Mayes last year but he went to the Lions- he did okay yesterday. We apparently interviewed Mayes twice last year.

On a side note I noticed Magner had a lazy 51 disposals on the weekend. Well done the Mitsubishi.

[jays]

lol

[dragit]

I think a good example of how to do it and how quickly it can improve is the Bulldogs...

2011 they just missed the finals
2012 they won 5... but GWS and GC were still very raw.
2013 they've won 7 and clearly improved...

I see similarities to us, just we are a year later.

It's going to be tough for a few years, and SW has been pretty adamant on saying how many preseasons you need to be able to maintain pressure for an entire game (4-5).

I'm excited about the future of this club and our list.

What we don't know though is how high the bulldogs will climb with their current plan… maybe they only get to 6th then plateau…

I don't want to just make the finals, I want to build to win a flag, if it takes longer so be it.

[Con Gorozidis]

We are an absolute monty for the spoon next year and it wouldnt change a thing if we had Norm Smith as Asst Coach to Jock McHale.
The issue isnt how we bottom out its the choices we make while we are bottom.
We need to not panic and make every trade and draft decision a winner and create a professional culture .
We did it a decade ago - we can do it again!

[lloyd21]

Would have to a lot wrong to finish below Melbourne

[Kickit]

I hope we don't stay down too long.
It has to affect the mindset of the players when they go in expecting to lose every week. At the moment I'm thinking that many ( like me) will be thinking about next season.
Let it go on for too many seasons and they'll all be thinking about the next Christmas holidays by May. This is potentially what can happen if we just chuck out everyone over 29 and play the kids.

From 2010
Curren. most people see him as a win. Still need to prove himself, but his early signs are very good. His average contested possessions during his 3 full games has been better than all except Lenny, Jack and Armo.
Siposs. Has issues. Has had different roles this year, and hasn't necessarily been "given" the ball or not. Not written off but his future is far from certain.
Ledger. I assume he's a goner.

From 2011
Saad, had promise, but may have killed his career by a foolish act.
Milera, Can show a bit at AFL level, but at 25 what we see may be what we get. I suspect he looks better in a winning team.
Ross, hes had a couple of good games, not necessarily against easy teams. I'm surprised at people writing him off, he'll impact a few games next season.
Markworth, unlikely to be a big impact next season.
Newnes, Last season Newnes had only one of 7 games where he got more than 5 contested posessions. The same game was the only one with more than 15 disposals.
This season Newnes had 4 of 17 with more than 5CP and 7 with more than 15 disposals. Improvement showing, and at his best potential ( based on his best games to date ) a very good player.
Possible breakout season in 2014.
Maister, possibly a depth player. Will be handy if Riewoldt can't play every game for the season.
Dunnel, Late developing 24 YO. Always looks good, but probably not influencing games much. Hard to see him making the difference next season.
Shenton/ Staley, Will be on the list and get a game if he's lucky.
Minchington. Looks promising but needs to get more of the ball. Wont be a big influence in 2014.

Without any trades ( or retirements ) the strongest team in 2014 would be something like:

Roberton, Fisher, Gwilt
Geary , Gilbert, Dempster
Dal Santo, Curren, Montagna,
Riewoldt, Armitage, Stanley
Milne, Lee , Schnieder

R: McEvoy, Hayes, Steven

Newnes, Jones, Ray : Ross

Not really a lot of "youth" there. But if you are talking "strongest team" then on current form Saunders, Wright, Minchington, Murdoch, are not there yet. Not saying that someone like Saunders couldn't surprise after a good pre-season.

[plugger66]

I think a good example of how to do it and how quickly it can improve is the Bulldogs...

2011 they just missed the finals
2012 they won 5... but GWS and GC were still very raw.
2013 they've won 7 and clearly improved...

I see similarities to us, just we are a year later.

It's going to be tough for a few years, and SW has been pretty adamant on saying how many preseasons you need to be able to maintain pressure for an entire game (4-5).

I'm excited about the future of this club and our list.

Slight difference. well a reasonably big difference. 2 father son picks for a start and also I doubt there recruiting was as bad as ours for about 5 years which has left us with bugger all 24 to 28 year olds. And we havent had a pick below 10 for about 6 years which usually but not always means to dont get the A grade players. And we have bottom out yet because we still have about 7 over 30 year olds who are still nearly our best players.I expect us to take at least 3 years from now to be where the WB are now.

[maverick]

I think a good example of how to do it and how quickly it can improve is the Bulldogs...

2011 they just missed the finals
2012 they won 5... but GWS and GC were still very raw.
2013 they've won 7 and clearly improved...

I see similarities to us, just we are a year later.

It's going to be tough for a few years, and SW has been pretty adamant on saying how many preseasons you need to be able to maintain pressure for an entire game (4-5).

I'm excited about the future of this club and our list.

Slight difference. well a reasonably big difference. 2 father son picks for a start and also I doubt there recruiting was as bad as ours for about 5 years which has left us with bugger all 24 to 28 year olds. And we havent had a pick below 10 for about 6 years which usually but not always means to dont get the A grade players. And we have bottom out yet because we still have about 7 over 30 year olds who are still nearly our best players.I expect us to take at least 3 years from now to be where the WB are now.

Two more for mine, end of 2015 winning last 4 games.

[AP Erebus]

I think a good example of how to do it and how quickly it can improve is the Bulldogs...

2011 they just missed the finals
2012 they won 5... but GWS and GC were still very raw.
2013 they've won 7 and clearly improved...

I see similarities to us, just we are a year later.

It's going to be tough for a few years, and SW has been pretty adamant on saying how many preseasons you need to be able to maintain pressure for an entire game (4-5).

I'm excited about the future of this club and our list.

Slight difference. well a reasonably big difference. 2 father son picks for a start and also I doubt there recruiting was as bad as ours for about 5 years which has left us with bugger all 24 to 28 year olds. And we havent had a pick below 10 for about 6 years which usually but not always means to dont get the A grade players. And we have bottom out yet because we still have about 7 over 30 year olds who are still nearly our best players.I expect us to take at least 3 years from now to be where the WB are now.

Yeah, fair enough.

I'm not super familiar with the dogs list, so what you said makes sense

[plugger66]

I think a good example of how to do it and how quickly it can improve is the Bulldogs...

2011 they just missed the finals
2012 they won 5... but GWS and GC were still very raw.
2013 they've won 7 and clearly improved...

I see similarities to us, just we are a year later.

It's going to be tough for a few years, and SW has been pretty adamant on saying how many preseasons you need to be able to maintain pressure for an entire game (4-5).

I'm excited about the future of this club and our list.

Slight difference. well a reasonably big difference. 2 father son picks for a start and also I doubt there recruiting was as bad as ours for about 5 years which has left us with bugger all 24 to 28 year olds. And we havent had a pick below 10 for about 6 years which usually but not always means to dont get the A grade players. And we have bottom out yet because we still have about 7 over 30 year olds who are still nearly our best players.I expect us to take at least 3 years from now to be where the WB are now.

Two more for mine, end of 2015 winning last 4 games.

It will be tough though. No Lenny, Rooy, Milney, Blake, CJ, Chips probably Schneider and Dempster and Dal and Joey past their peak.

[gringo]

I'm not sure if they still have Scott Clayton but they recruited very well. They also got a compensation leg up because they lost Callum Ward and Harbrow. Father son isn't as big a leg up as it was as unless they are in the top few players like Daniher or Viney all clubs can push the value around where they belong.

they have done well from speculative picks as well like Dahlhouse from the rookie list and Kobe Stevens from WCE. At the end of the day you need good recruiters and play the kids and the rest will take care of it's self.

It's about 50 percent planning and development and 50 percent luck. Dane Swan has been a better value player than Gumbleton but they came from opposite ends of the recruitment placings.

[maverick]

I think a good example of how to do it and how quickly it can improve is the Bulldogs...

2011 they just missed the finals
2012 they won 5... but GWS and GC were still very raw.
2013 they've won 7 and clearly improved...

I see similarities to us, just we are a year later.

It's going to be tough for a few years, and SW has been pretty adamant on saying how many preseasons you need to be able to maintain pressure for an entire game (4-5).

I'm excited about the future of this club and our list.

Slight difference. well a reasonably big difference. 2 father son picks for a start and also I doubt there recruiting was as bad as ours for about 5 years which has left us with bugger all 24 to 28 year olds. And we havent had a pick below 10 for about 6 years which usually but not always means to dont get the A grade players. And we have bottom out yet because we still have about 7 over 30 year olds who are still nearly our best players.I expect us to take at least 3 years from now to be where the WB are now.

Two more for mine, end of 2015 winning last 4 games.

It will be tough though. No Lenny, Rooy, Milney, Blake, CJ, Chips probably Schneider and Dempster and Dal and Joey past their peak.

Milney, CJ, Blake, Lenny (hate saying it), Chips and Dempster are probably contributing little now....
Dal will be gone or off a HBF and still good
Joey will be gone, Schneider 50/50
Losing Rooey will be the big one.
Need a big/gun forward replacement next year or early the following...
I see the bulk of Ross, Murdoch, Saunders, Wright, Steven, Armo and pick 3 2013 carrying our midfield.
Support acts the like of Curren etc will be on the edge
Webster, Geary, Newnes, Roberton, Gilbert, hopefully SImpkin carrying defence, with at least one if not two big defenders needed
Forward line looks light on, need Sipposs and Lee to make it with either Stanley or White needing to make it.
Always crystal balling but I reckon Steven and pick 3 2013 A grade, Ross and Armo B Grade with Saunders, Wright, Newnes, Murdoch and Curren floating in and out between support and B grade.

Our big hole is a big forward, or gun tall.

Look at the Hawks midfield. Only Mitchell pure A grade mid. Rioli and Hodge A grade but float in and out...Sewell, Lewis, Burgoyne B grade, with Whitecross, Smith, Shiels and a host of others floating in and out. They are a great team because of their adaptability not because of their host of A graders. For me they have 5; Mitchell, Roughead, Franklin, Hodge and Rioli.

It doesn't need to be that hard.

[spert]

We have the situation where we have no standout KPPs down the spine, even though Roo tries his guts out, he is not as effective as the season goes on. It's a bit much to expect middle size flankers and runners to make a huge impact if there's no big KPPs to feed off. If we had a bigger, stronger FB and CHB, then players like Gwilt, Dempster, Roberton, Simpkin, Newnes, Dunnell etc would be much more effective. All across the ground we are undermanned, so it's a challenge for the club to sort it out for the next few seasons. Probably the most important recruiting/ list management challenge the club has faced for a long time.

[dragit]

For me they have 5; Mitchell, Roughead, Franklin, Hodge and Rioli.

It doesn't need to be that hard.

I would have Lewis, Gibson, Lake, Burgoyne, Birchall all very close to A grade… high B's probably.

Smith, Breust & Gunston becoming very good players…

They bat very deep.

Rioli's 15 disposals and 1 goal per game doesn't make him A grade in my book, if he's a mid he doesn't get enough footy, if he's a forward he doesn't kick enough goals… He's exciting and tackles well though.

[maverick]

For me they have 5; Mitchell, Roughead, Franklin, Hodge and Rioli.

It doesn't need to be that hard.

I would have Lewis, Gibson, Lake, Burgoyne, Birchall all very close to A grade… high B's probably.

Smith, Breust & Gunston becoming very good players…

They bat very deep.

Rioli's 15 disposals and 1 goal per game doesn't make him A grade in my book, if he's a mid he doesn't get enough footy, if he's a forward he doesn't kick enough goals… He's exciting and tackles well though.

Who were our A's in 2009/10

I have 5: Roo, Lenny, Dal, Chips & BJ
I like your high B's scenario: Joey, Gram, Schneider, Milne and probably Gilbert and maybe Baker.

That's the line that needs developing for mine.
As you say, that's how you bat deep.

I reckon they don't get many injuries either.....