The Fox Report - 2013

[rodgerfox]

We're in deep s***.


Well, let me clarify that....we could well be in deep s***.


We sit in that unfortunate position of missing a generation of good players. And by good players, I mean players who will win you games. If you're lucky (or maybe it's more than luck) you develop young guys whilst you still have mid-old guys performing at their best.

That way, when the mid-old guys retire or get older and their input diminishes, there are other dudes ready to go. Geelong are an example of that.

The other thing Geelong are an example of, and so are we, is that our old guys aren't genuine ball winners. Geelong's are.

If you're trying to blood young kids whilst they have to win their own ball each week and play key roles, you're going to get killed more often than not.

If you have Coreys, Enrights etc. still winning their own nut - life is far easier for the Christensons etc. of the world. Go back a few years and the same thing applied. They were able to bring Selwood in as a 4th onballer, Taylor came in as a 3rd defender and so on and so on.

However if you look at us, our 'old guys' aren't really genuine ball winners. Roo is, but Milne, Dal, Joey, Fisher probably aren't. For Fisher to be at his best, he gets free and/or plays 3rd man up. But to have that luxury, you need a key defender to hold the contest. Suddenly we're either getting Fisher to hold that contest himself (whic hisn't really his go) or asking a child to do it. It means we lose the contest more often than not - and at the same time Fisher's influence is reduced.

Our backline and midfield are in dire imbalance in regards to the above point at the moment.

With Roo, our forward line has been able to ease a few dudes through. They will be better for it as time goes by and will develop faster.


So at present, we're in trouble. But that's Ok, it happens. You have your highs then you will then have your lows. Some lower than others (due to the above). Carlton will be in exactly the same boat. However at least we had 2 GFs to show for it.

Carlton's older guys aren't ball winners. So when it comes tmie to blood new guys, they're going to have to do it the hard way.



As for the future, this is why I say we may well be in deep s*** going forward....

The team we see right now, may not be the team that takes us forward. From the current crop of 'middle tier players', some may not improve. Which means any improvement in the team will come solely from the kids. That will take years.

What if the kids we see playing now, don't come in in the next 1-2 years and give genuine glimpses that they'll be good enough to take us forward as a contender? That would mean we'd then have to wait for another crop of kids to come through and hope for the best. The difference there would be that in that scenario the new crop would be very high in the draft!



6 weeks ago, I didn't really see anything to give me confidence that our kids were going to be any good. However now, I'm starting to like what I see. I watched Sandy last week and I'm quietly pleased with what we have coming through, and how we seem to be managing them for the future.

With any luck, we may have a crop of 5-6 genuinely good players come through together, and notch up 50-100 games around the same time. This is the recipe to success that we need to hope for. A crop of kids coming through, learning the trade together and peaking together. Getting one top 3 draft pick isn't the key. Getting a bunch of good kids coming through is what you need.

If we can do this, which I tend to think we can, and Armitage, Stevens, Gwilt, Gilbert etc. get better or don't get any worse, and we use the draft well and get another couple of good kids each year - we could be contending again in 3 years.



However, if we can't get at least 4-5 of our current kids being A or B graders within the next 3-4 years - we're in deep s***.

[SainterK]

Interesting your point about a lack of ball winners.

To be fair, think the gameplan dictated that, some have been reprogrammed to play one on one, others perhaps were exposed a little in this area after Scott came.

Welcome back.

[st_Trav_ofWA]

we are further ahead than we were last time we were down ... in 2000 we had a much worse team than we have now , yes a large chunk of our 2013 team (much like the large chunk of the 2000 team) will not be there by the time we are back in finals contention but we will keep bringing kids through and slowly they will get better and better ... the quallity we get may not be quiet as strong as the Lenny Roo era as honeslty players like that are once in a generation players but we will get some quallity with the pick we take in these down years some will make it some wont (same as 2000 era )

[joffaboy]

I dont agree.

Didn't read the OP, but I dont agree.

[sainter#4]

TBH i reckon with abit of luck we will recruit well.

I just believe the key to rebuilding is finding a rookie who makes the cut or a mature age out of nowhere

So we need our own A grade versions of sam mitchell or harry taylor

[plugger66]

we are further ahead than we were last time we were down ... in 2000 we had a much worse team than we have now , yes a large chunk of our 2013 team (much like the large chunk of the 2000 team) will not be there by the time we are back in finals contention but we will keep bringing kids through and slowly they will get better and better ... the quallity we get may not be quiet as strong as the Lenny Roo era as honeslty players like that are once in a generation players but we will get some quallity with the pick we take in these down years some will make it some wont (same as 2000 era )

In 2000 we still have some once in a generation players who were going to be around another 3 or 4 years or so. its doubtful we will this time. Also the huge difference is there were priorty picks back then and we used them pretty well. Not sure we will get this time unless you are wrong and we are worse off than 2000. And the final big difference was we get Blight to coach us. he may not have been a great coach for us but was probably one of the reasons we got Hamill and Fraser.

[rodgerfox]

Once the massive hype subsided, in reality the crop of superstar freaks that Gerard Healy had winning us 5 flags in a row - fizzled out to a large degree.

Raph, X, Kosi and Goose never met their potential.


So although we appeared brilliantly placed due to the young talent, it didn't actually eventuate. What brought us success (albeit limited in some opinions) was the fact that a big crop of kids all came through together, developed together and peaked together.


That's the key. And with some luck it could happen again with this bunch.

[rodgerfox]

Further to that, Geelong didn't get the glamour drafting that we did.

They had the same situation of a bunch of young guys coming through together, and clearly they ended up being one of the best teams ever. Which for mine, just goes to show that developing a core together is far important than getting high draft picks.

[skeptic]

Geelong did get a handy few father sons that they wouldn't have lasted til their picks though... so they did get a few gifts

[rodgerfox]

They won a flag without Ablett though.


I have no doubt they wouldn't have been the freak team they are without getting Ablett and Hawkins - but I also have no doubt that they still would have been a contender if not a premiership team without them.

[Con Gorozidis]

Welcome back Roger!

[Con Gorozidis]

I certainly agree with your sentiments - I think next year will be interesting - will improvement in our youngsters offset the decline in our older guys?
I tend to think we might be slightly improved next year - whereas I had previously figured wed be way worse next year. But slight improvement still means we could finish bottom 3. It is hard to see anyone drop below us next year? Only West Coast and the Blues look like declining towards the bottom next year.
So yeah two low finishes. 4 high draft picks.
I think 2015 at best we can look for improvement. 2016 we could play finals if we do everything right from here on.

[MC Gusto]

He's back!!


Agree with the sentiment of your post. My main fear is that given our supposed huge spending ability this year (according to the coach and others we are going to be 'extremely aggressive' in the FA) we end up paying overs for quick fixes and do not end up getting the bunch of quality kids coming through together as you suggest.
The next 2 years drafting and trading is critical. To date the past 2 years by the pelican et al has certainly IMO earnt a pass. Lets see if he gets an 'exceed' in the years to come..

[saintsRrising]

However, if we can't get at least 4-5 of our current kids being A or B graders within the next 3-4 years - we're in deep s***.

This is core

Our drafting has improved the last 3 years no doubt. Our "new" team has many young guys shaping up, though not all will make it of course. But we need some "stars" to emerge. You cannot be a successful club without having some genuine stars.

[saintsRrising]

He's back!!


My main fear is that given our supposed huge spending ability this year (according to the coach and others we are going to be 'extremely aggressive' in the FA)..

I am quite skeptical about this, or at least rather in attracting any genuine FA stars.

Due the AFL skew other clubs have more money.
Yet others do not, but have the lure of being genuine finals contenders "now".

I do believe that we can gain at least a handy FB by this means...and this would make a large structural difference to our backline, and allow our flankers to be flankers rather than fill-in key backs.. Zac showed that.

But to gain a genuine FA mid that will be classy enough to make a difference? We basically need someone who is better than Jack or Armo, or could be in a year or two.

Main chance of this might be extracting someone from the Suns or GWS.,,but then they would not be FA, but trades.

[saint66au]

However, if we can't get at least 4-5 of our current kids being A or B graders within the next 3-4 years - we're in deep s***.

This is core

Our drafting has improved the last 3 years no doubt. Our "new" team has many young guys shaping up, though not all will make it of course. But we need some "stars" to emerge. You cannot be a successful club without having some genuine stars.

Agree totally,

[gringo]

I'm not as worried as you are. We have 2 genuine good players in the mid age range in Armo and steven who will improve further. Geary is more than handy and Ben could still be anything. That's four in the group of mid aged players. With most teams that would be about the keepers from that range. We need to keep bringing in kids and developing them but got some good ones to do it with.

Fisher is so under rated- he's a ball winner and a front foot player. He was one of our few real attacking players under Ross along with BJ. Montagna is a ball winner too for that matter.

Geelong will be screwed too if those kids don't go from good players to excellent players. Corey, Enright, Johnson, JPod, Mackie, Stokes will all be gone in a few years and they will need to have some kids lifting up above the average to sustain the form. Johnson and Stokes have been their best this year as mids.

You don't need kids coming through together just give them opportunity to prove themselves and keep playing them.

[saint66au]

I'm not as worried as you are. We have 2 genuine good players in the mid age range in Armo and steven who will improve further. Geary is more than handy and Ben could still be anything. That's four in the group of mid aged players. With most teams that would be about the keepers from that range. We need to keep bringing in kids and developing them but got some good ones to do it with.

Fisher is so under rated- he's a ball winner and a front foot player. He was one of our few real attacking players under Ross along with BJ. Montagna is a ball winner too for that matter.

Geelong will be screwed too if those kids don't go from good players to excellent players. Corey, Enright, Johnson, JPod, Mackie, Stokes will all be gone in a few years and they will need to have some kids lifting up above the average to sustain the form. Johnson and Stokes have been their best this year as mids.

You don't need kids coming through together just give them opportunity to prove themselves and keep playing them.

Armo will never be a star..,that's not a knock...Selwood, Dangerfield and Fyfe are stars...Armo is a good player but he's a 25 yo mid who will never reach those heights

One of Geelongs kids will be AA this year most likely

[Zed]

The signs from our last 2 drafts are promising. This years upcoming draft and next years draft are crucial for us to get right. We will get a top 5 draft pick this year and another one next year, combined with 2 early 2nd round picks. If 3 of those 4 players turn out to be 200 game players, and with some luck get a few better than average GOPs with the 3rd and 4th round picks as well then we will have a solid core of players built up over 4 years that will mature together as a group. The next Saints team that plays in Prelim Final will I believe be built on a much more even team - something akin to the Swans , rather than the teams of 97, 04-05 and 08-10, which all relied on once in a generation players.

If we get the next 2 drafts right and don't implode along the way, I see us returning to finals footy in 2016/17, a prelim final a year later and in contention for a GF the year after. So yes, it currently is a bit reminiscent of the 2000 season but the rebuild may take a year or 2 longer because we don't have priority picks to help out.

[AeonFlux]

2013????

Come on Rodge!

Time to come in from the cold honey.

- Aeon.

[loris]

rogerthedoger here is a little tune for you my love




ding de ding

[True Blue Sainter]

I'm not as worried as you are. We have 2 genuine good players in the mid age range in Armo and steven who will improve further. Geary is more than handy and Ben could still be anything. That's four in the group of mid aged players. With most teams that would be about the keepers from that range. We need to keep bringing in kids and developing them but got some good ones to do it with.

Fisher is so under rated- he's a ball winner and a front foot player. He was one of our few real attacking players under Ross along with BJ. Montagna is a ball winner too for that matter.

Geelong will be screwed too if those kids don't go from good players to excellent players. Corey, Enright, Johnson, JPod, Mackie, Stokes will all be gone in a few years and they will need to have some kids lifting up above the average to sustain the form. Johnson and Stokes have been their best this year as mids.

You don't need kids coming through together just give them opportunity to prove themselves and keep playing them.

Armo will never be a star..,that's not a knock...Selwood, Dangerfield and Fyfe are stars...Armo is a good player but he's a 25 yo mid who will never reach those heights

One of Geelongs kids will be AA this year most likely

Wow, I think most of us would have been thinking the same thing as saint66au, but still...

Armo has taken his game to literally the highest of levels. The only players IMO that you could definitively argue are having a better season would be Fyfe and Rance.

[AeonFlux]

but I too, would like to know who Roger & West are.

Roger honey, you simply HAVE to come back! There is a whole Saint’s generation who do not know of your fame.

That is NOT right. (Sigh. )

[Legendary]

Which for mine, just goes to show that developing a core together is far important than getting high draft picks.

I think we are seeing rodger's statement from 2013 come true - our "core" of Ross, Newnes, Hickey, Bruce, Minchington, Billings, Webster, Dunstan, Acres, McCartin, Hickey etc. are coming through together. This will be far more important as the sum of its parts than any one individual player.

[No Holds Bard]

Which for mine, just goes to show that developing a core together is far important than getting high draft picks.

I think we are seeing rodger's statement from 2013 come true - our "core" of Ross, Newnes, Hickey, Bruce, Minchington, Billings, Webster, Dunstan, Acres, McCartin, Hickey etc. are coming through together. This will be far more important as the sum of its parts than any one individual player.

Alas poor roger. Uneasy lies the head that wears the crown.
Oh for the muse of fire! He didth bestride this narrow forum like a Colossus; and we petty men walk under his huge legs, and peep about to find ourselves dishonourable graves.
We have seen better days, but no better roger.