How far off resurge are we ?

[St Chris]

There's no doubt it's going to get worse before it gets better. On paper, we're better than WB, Melb, GWS and Brisbane only. Melbourne is the only one of those teams that will take longer to rise up toward the finals than us. On current form, the Suns have gone past us, in another 12-18 months GWS will have done the same, and I dont really see any other team heading in the other direction. We need some special kids, and those kids need to be developed properly.

"Onfield success" changes now. We're no longer looking at finals and premierships, we need to take joy out of the little things now. The Carlton win may turn out to be the best highlight of the year, against the odds we outplayed a team that most experts had in their top 4. If we can score a couple more scalps like that, there's still some joy to be had in 2013 even though we're probably not going to win the flag.

It's a bit like the premier league syndrome - having realistic expectations for your team, and you'll take plenty of joy when you surpass those expectations.

[dragit]

While Melbourne might be hopeless now, they have something that we are missing, a handful of genuine A grade youngsters. They will no doubt pull themselves together in the next couple of years & build a good side around Viney, Hogan, Toumpas... Plus Frawley, Watts, Trengove

They will add 2 or 3 more top 3 picks in the next year or 2.

A good coach will come in and turn them around.

[Stillwaiting]

While Melbourne might be hopeless now, they have something that we are missing, a handful of genuine A grade youngsters. They will no doubt pull themselves together in the next couple of years & build a good side around Viney, Hogan, Toumpas... Plus Frawley, Watts, Trengove

They will add 2 or 3 more top 3 picks in the next year or 2.

A good coach will come in and turn them around.

Agree, Melbourne have been held back by a very poor of field performance and the habit they have of going through coaches.
If they manage to get their of field shyte together and a experienced quality coach comes as well as more high draft selections this year and next, then they could turn it around and by 2016 could be playing finals.
We are lucky to still have a few experience guns to teach the kids, something they don't, but we really need to get our drafting an tradin right to be challenging again in 3-4 years tome

[SaintPav]

While Melbourne might be hopeless now, they have something that we are missing, a handful of genuine A grade youngsters. They will no doubt pull themselves together in the next couple of years & build a good side around Viney, Hogan, Toumpas... Plus Frawley, Watts, Trengove

They will add 2 or 3 more top 3 picks in the next year or 2.

A good coach will come in and turn them around.

They need more than a good coach. The club has some very serious cultural issues and they need a complete overhaul at both board and senior management level.

[dragit]

While Melbourne might be hopeless now, they have something that we are missing, a handful of genuine A grade youngsters. They will no doubt pull themselves together in the next couple of years & build a good side around Viney, Hogan, Toumpas... Plus Frawley, Watts, Trengove

They will add 2 or 3 more top 3 picks in the next year or 2.

A good coach will come in and turn them around.

They need more than a good coach. The club has some very serious cultural issues and they need a complete overhaul at both board and senior management level.

Pretty sure our rise in 2004 was more on the back of superstar talent than Butters.

Sure they need to get rid of Connelly & Co, but that has already started, Jackson will sort them out. They will be a good footy side before us, I have no doubt.

[joffaboy]

While Melbourne might be hopeless now, they have something that we are missing, a handful of genuine A grade youngsters. They will no doubt pull themselves together in the next couple of years & build a good side around Viney, Hogan, Toumpas... Plus Frawley, Watts, Trengove

They will add 2 or 3 more top 3 picks in the next year or 2.

A good coach will come in and turn them around.

They need more than a good coach. The club has some very serious cultural issues and they need a complete overhaul at both board and senior management level.

Pretty sure our rise in 2004 was more on the back of superstar talent than Butters.

Sure they need to get rid of Connelly & Co, but that has already started, Jackson will sort them out. They will be a good footy side before us, I have no doubt.

I doubt it. Their problems are structural both on and off the field.

We are in a much better position and have much better transitional arrangements. They got rid of any experience they had, lost Scully, and Watts is struggling.

If they lose a Frawley for example, they will be shot for 5-8 years at least.

We wont get rid of our older players willy nilly. Our core has two to three years left and they will slowly transition out as our current crop and future recruits/ dps come on board.

Probably 2015 before we challenge for the bottom half of the eight. 2016 before we are consistant.

[dragit]

Willy nilly?

You mean like BJ #1, Ball #2?

Our core is absolutely finished already, otherwise we wouldn't be 2 - 6.

Roo & Joey are the only players over 28 still having any impact.

Without Roo we could easily be 0 - 8, 1 - 7 at best

Melbourne have been absolutely hopeless, but have picked up some absolute premium A grade talent, something you just can't replace.

Unless Lee, Hickey & White turn out to be some kind of miracles, we will be middling for many years.

In 2015 we will be 18th.

[SaintPav]

While Melbourne might be hopeless now, they have something that we are missing, a handful of genuine A grade youngsters. They will no doubt pull themselves together in the next couple of years & build a good side around Viney, Hogan, Toumpas... Plus Frawley, Watts, Trengove

They will add 2 or 3 more top 3 picks in the next year or 2.

A good coach will come in and turn them around.

They need more than a good coach. The club has some very serious cultural issues and they need a complete overhaul at both board and senior management level.

Pretty sure our rise in 2004 was more on the back of superstar talent than Butters.

Sure they need to get rid of Connelly & Co, but that has already started, Jackson will sort them out. They will be a good footy side before us, I have no doubt.

For thier supporters sake I really hope so, but JB is correct. They have serious structural issues off the field that are unrelated to coaching. This is why the AFL has had to intervene. They have some shocking decision making and governance issues at board level on some pretty basic stuff. The coach is only one piece of the puzzle, a big piece none the less.

The cultural issues probbaly go as far back as 40 years IMO.

[Teflon]

Dear God, there's some candidates for Carpal Tunnel Syndrome on here...........

Good call.

Also some limp wristed wets as well..

[cwrcyn]

2015 team could look like this

B Gwilt ?????? Roberton
HB Geary ????? Gilbert
C Newnes Steven Saunders
HF Markworth Stanley Murdoch
F Minchington White Lee/Riewoldt

R McEvoy Wright Ross

I/C Siposs Hickey Webster Armitage

Still in the mix or still around: Dal Santo Saad Milera Montagna Maister


Need to fill the two key back posts asap. if we do that with competent players who can give us at least 100 games, then we'll be a competitive team throughout 2015 to 2018.

[joffaboy]

Willy nilly?

You mean like BJ #1, Ball #2?

Did we get rid oof bj?

Our core is absolutely finished already, otherwise we wouldn't be 2 - 6.

So Dal Santo, Fisher, Dempster and Schneider are finished?

This is what I mean. We aren't in contention and we need to transition our older players out.

Or do you think it is good development for kids to get belted like Melbourne, or like GWS, where there are numerous 1st round dps not getting a game and wanting come home

Without Roo we could easily be 0 - 8, 1 - 7 at best

Conversely with Lenny we may be 3-5 or 4-4

Melbourne have been absolutely hopeless, but have picked up some absolute premium A grade talent, something you just can't replace.

Unless Lee, Hickey & White turn out to be some kind of miracles, we will be middling for many years.

In 2015 we will be 18th.

Oh for gods sake. So you reckon we will be stone motherless last in three years?

None of our kids will be able to improve, we wont trade or recruit out of FA?

I heard all this doom and gloom before when harvs retired. I heard we wouldn't make the eight in 2009 because harvs was our best mid.

You shudder at the prospect of losing a Fishers for example. Remember he was a pick #55 or thereabouts. Who would have predicted he would be an AA and be a staple in our backline for season upon season.

We picked up a Roberton this season, that people moaned about. He is looking the goods. Why cant we pick up a Frawley or a stopper like Brown to compliment a Roberton and Gwilt?

To be so pessimistic to say we will be last in 3 seasons is a bit sad sack in my opinion.

I think we can bounce back pretty well and pretty quickly - 2-3 seasons.

[joffaboy]

2015 team could look like this

B Gwilt ?????? Roberton
HB Geary ????? Gilbert
C Newnes Steven Saunders
HF Markworth Stanley Murdoch
F Minchington White Lee/Riewoldt

R McEvoy Wright Ross

I/C Siposs Hickey Webster Armitage

Still in the mix or still around: Dal Santo Saad Milera Montagna Maister


Need to fill the two key back posts asap. if we do that with competent players who can give us at least 100 games, then we'll be a competitive team throughout 2015 to 2018.

And this assumed absolutely no trading or picking up a ready to go dp like we have done in Wright.

Good post.

[dragit]

Hope you're right joff...

I could be being negative, in my mind it is just realistic... A lot of unknowns of course.

We are still heading south, GWS & GC are heading up. Dogs & demons seem pretty stationary but have a couple of years of good picks in front of us.

As good as we think Newnes, wright and Ross are... We are still held together by guys that won't be at the club in 2015, and were still struggling to win any games.

If spending a couple more years down the bottom means a better chance at a flag, I can cope, we've all done it before.

[Old Mate]

I'm not sure we have that bottom out year when Roo, Milne, Hayes and Co. retire. Since Watters came to the club we've been getting consistent games into players such as Sippos, Newnes, Saad, Wright and Ross. By the time our core retire those players (and others in time) will have 30-50 games under their belts and be a lot better for it. Look at Steven for example. He's already overtaken Dal Santo and probably Hayes and is about even with Monty, on this years form I mean. I'm expecting Wright, Newnes and Ross to outperform a 2013 version of Hayes and Dal Santo by the time they 50 games under their belts. Same with Saad verse Milne. Hopefully they continue improvement from their and have similar careers to those legends.

If we do have that 'bottom out' year I'd say it's 2013-4 - Here we have 6-8 wins in those two seasons. That's without completely bottoming out like a Demons, Blues, Tigers etc. By 2015-6, and with those players mentioned above having 50 games under their belt I see us moving up the ladder order from there. Possibly 2016 we go close to playing finals and 2017-8 start playing for top 4 and putting ourselves in a position to play off for a flag.

[tweedaletomanning]

Willy nilly?

You mean like BJ #1, Ball #2?

Our core is absolutely finished already, otherwise we wouldn't be 2 - 6.

Roo & Joey are the only players over 28 still having any impact.

Without Roo we could easily be 0 - 8, 1 - 7 at best

Melbourne have been absolutely hopeless, but have picked up some absolute premium A grade talent, something you just can't replace.

Unless Lee, Hickey & White turn out to be some kind of miracles, we will be middling for many years.

In 2015 we will be 18th.

I think you will be proven to be right.

Melbourne and the dogs have far better younger players than we do overall at this stage ( as a matter of fact which team doesn't, seriously)

[gringo]

I'm not sure we have that bottom out year when Roo, Milne, Hayes and Co. retire. Since Watters came to the club we've been getting consistent games into players such as Sippos, Newnes, Saad, Wright and Ross. By the time our core retire those players (and others in time) will have 30-50 games under their belts and be a lot better for it. Look at Steven for example. He's already overtaken Dal Santo and probably Hayes and is about even with Monty, on this years form I mean. I'm expecting Wright, Newnes and Ross to outperform a 2013 version of Hayes and Dal Santo by the time they 50 games under their belts. Same with Saad verse Milne. Hopefully they continue improvement from their and have similar careers to those legends.

If we do have that 'bottom out' year I'd say it's 2013-4 - Here we have 6-8 wins in those two seasons. That's without completely bottoming out like a Demons, Blues, Tigers etc. By 2015-6, and with those players mentioned above having 50 games under their belt I see us moving up the ladder order from there. Possibly 2016 we go close to playing finals and 2017-8 start playing for top 4 and putting ourselves in a position to play off for a flag.

Steven and armo will be the Lenny types that are going to hold up our younger mids. We probably need a little luck with our KPPs and we should be right on the time frames you suggest. At the end of the day it will depend on how good our recruiters have done.

[cwrcyn]

WE are obviously banking on our younger guys developing into good players, as is every club. In the under 22 age group, those who I can confidently say will be regular senior players are Newnes, Siposs, Wright, Hickey, & Roberton.

Ross, Saunders, Murdoch, Markworth, White, and Webster have shown signs, yet it's too early to tell how they will develop. They've all certainly shown more than the majority of players we recruited between 2007 and 2010.

Melbourne and the Bulldogs have many players in this category, and as far as rebuilding is concerned, the Dogs are 12 months ahead of us, so more of their younger players have been exposed. Much of our success will depend on the development programs for these players.

The 2013 and 2014 drafts shape up as being absolutely critical. If we can secure Brown in a trade, and get another key position back line player during this year's draft period, then that will immediately improve the balance and competitiveness of our team. It simply cannot be underestimated how important it is to fill these two roles of FB and CHB. With those two positions settled, the club can then start adding a bit more quality and depth to our midfield.

[plugger66]

WE are obviously banking on our younger guys developing into good players, as is every club. In the under 22 age group, those who I can confidently say will be regular senior players are Newnes, Siposs, Wright, Hickey, & Roberton.

Ross, Saunders, Murdoch, Markworth, White, and Webster have shown signs, yet it's too early to tell how they will develop. They've all certainly shown more than the majority of players we recruited between 2007 and 2010.

Melbourne and the Bulldogs have many players in this category, and as far as rebuilding is concerned, the Dogs are 12 months ahead of us, so more of their younger players have been exposed. Much of our success will depend on the development programs for these players.

The 2013 and 2014 drafts shape up as being absolutely critical. If we can secure Brown in a trade, and get another key position back line player during this year's draft period, then that will immediately improve the balance and competitiveness of our team. It simply cannot be underestimated how important it is to fill these two roles of FB and CHB. With those two positions settled, the club can then start adding a bit more quality and depth to our midfield.

I still dont get this Brown love by some. What has he ever done and yes i know WCE have a strong backline but if you are good enough surely you would have a regular spot after 6 years of footy. Im happy to get Brown for nothing but I wouldnt even trade a pick for him. Thank goodness the supposed trade of 2 draft picks didnt happen last season. We may be 3 and 5 but we wouldnt have Wright or White.

[SaintPav]

WE are obviously banking on our younger guys developing into good players, as is every club. In the under 22 age group, those who I can confidently say will be regular senior players are Newnes, Siposs, Wright, Hickey, & Roberton.

Ross, Saunders, Murdoch, Markworth, White, and Webster have shown signs, yet it's too early to tell how they will develop. They've all certainly shown more than the majority of players we recruited between 2007 and 2010.

Melbourne and the Bulldogs have many players in this category, and as far as rebuilding is concerned, the Dogs are 12 months ahead of us, so more of their younger players have been exposed. Much of our success will depend on the development programs for these players.

The 2013 and 2014 drafts shape up as being absolutely critical. If we can secure Brown in a trade, and get another key position back line player during this year's draft period, then that will immediately improve the balance and competitiveness of our team. It simply cannot be underestimated how important it is to fill these two roles of FB and CHB. With those two positions settled, the club can then start adding a bit more quality and depth to our midfield.

I still dont get this Brown love by some. What has he ever done and yes i know WCE have a strong backline but if you are good enough surely you would have a regular spot after 6 years of footy. Im happy to get Brown for nothing but I wouldnt even trade a pick for him. Thank goodness the supposed trade of 2 draft picks didnt happen last season. We may be 3 and 5 but we wouldnt have Wright or White.

Right!

[Dr Spaceman]

[joffaboy]

WE are obviously banking on our younger guys developing into good players, as is every club. In the under 22 age group, those who I can confidently say will be regular senior players are Newnes, Siposs, Wright, Hickey, & Roberton.

Ross, Saunders, Murdoch, Markworth, White, and Webster have shown signs, yet it's too early to tell how they will develop. They've all certainly shown more than the majority of players we recruited between 2007 and 2010.

Melbourne and the Bulldogs have many players in this category, and as far as rebuilding is concerned, the Dogs are 12 months ahead of us, so more of their younger players have been exposed. Much of our success will depend on the development programs for these players.

The 2013 and 2014 drafts shape up as being absolutely critical. If we can secure Brown in a trade, and get another key position back line player during this year's draft period, then that will immediately improve the balance and competitiveness of our team. It simply cannot be underestimated how important it is to fill these two roles of FB and CHB. With those two positions settled, the club can then start adding a bit more quality and depth to our midfield.

I still dont get this Brown love by some. What has he ever done and yes i know WCE have a strong backline but if you are good enough surely you would have a regular spot after 6 years of footy. Im happy to get Brown for nothing but I wouldnt even trade a pick for him. Thank goodness the supposed trade of 2 draft picks didnt happen last season. We may be 3 and 5 but we wouldnt have Wright or White.

All very true, but remember nobody wanted Roberton, or for that matter Fisher when he was picked up as a 23 y.o. from the SANFL.

Gwilt was perservered with and we are now reaping the benefits.

We dont have a stopper. Everyone bagged Zac, but without him our backline gets monstered by the likes of WCE and Essendon. With a true stopper the backline as a whole would be stronger. I reckon a Brown may well bring more to the backline than just his position, a lot like Zac did (and does for Freo).

You may well be proven right and he is a complete spud. Many thought the same of Roberton, but as you said Brown would have cost Wright and Wight. Roberton cost nothing in trade terms.

[Teflon]

Get Frawley - Stanley to CHB

In business forget Brown

[mick13]

I suspect we'll stay at this 13th-16th mark for another three or four years before pushing for the finals, then hopefully being a premiership contender a couple of years after that. So by 2018 I think we'll be a finals side.

We just don't have enough quality players in/reaching their prime over the next few years to really change our position. Lenny and Milne should probably retire at the end of the year (along with Kosi, Blake and Jones retiring/delisted). Roo might only have one more year after this and is a knee injury away from retirement. Dal isn't the player he used to be. Joey looks capable of another few years of good footy as long as he doesn't lose his pace.

I'd say a footballers prime years are 24-28. In 2015 our "core" in their prime will be the following

Gwilt 28
Gilbert 28
Armitage 26
Geary 26
McEvoy 25
Saad 25
Steven 25
Simpkin 24
Stanley 24
Lee 24
Hickey 24

There are some decent enough players there, but it is a long way off being a premiership core. Compare that to 2009 in Riewoldt, Hayes, Goddard, Milne, Ball, Dal Santo, Montagna, Fisher, Schneider, Koschitzke, Gardiner, Gram, Baker, Hudghton. We just don't have the A-grade talent on the list yet. I'd say no one over 26 will be a part of our next finals side.

How old were Sidebottom (almost best on) and Beams in 2010? Even Pendles and Thomas were only 23. Selwood, Rioli all young and not super high picks.

Without being too overly positive, I don't think its unfair to say that Ross (22), Newnes (22), Wright (20) and Roberton (23) should all be included in that list for 2015. And while maybe not 'in their prime', certainly doing their bit.

We haven't used a pick above 25 since 2008. And with a number of decent later pick ups we're going okay. Will be definitely interesting to see how we go in the next couple years when our second pick is better than our highest picks of the past 4 years.

Not all doom and gloom yet.

[cwrcyn]

There aren't many 195cm key defenders available. Brown is no superstar, I admit, but I'd rather have a genuine key defender playing in that position, rather than have someone like Fisher, Gwilt, or Roberton fill the role. When those guys have to step into CHB or FB we badly miss their run from defence, and it throws out the whole balance of the back line. We were our most damaging defensively when Gwilt and Fisher played as running backs

At the right price or no price at all, I'd take Brown. Like many others, I was glad we didn't end up coughing up so much for him last year.

[southernsaint]

do not underestimate chriss pelchan. we are already two years into our...re~direction