As a newly drafted midfielder, 3 seasons is about what it takes to see if they will succeed at afl level.
Looking at the 2010 draft, the first 6 picks haven't set the world on fire. The first 9 picks have all played afl, some having played more games than others and some standing out more:
1 Swallow
2 Bennell
3 Day
4 Gaff
5 Polec
6 Conca
7 Caddy
8 Heppell
9 Prestia
I don't see any Judds selwoods or hodges in here?
Do we think any of the above are going to be genuine stars? Heppell looks very good. Bennell shows glimpses of brilliance. Day and Polec are struggling. Swallow won the rising star, but has flat-lined since.
Having high draft picks is great, but don't be hoping that the player we draft is going to be our saviour, another Joel Selwood etc..
We may be better off trading pick 6 for some certainty around the player we are getting. Don't forget we will still have pick 24 and pick 42 to use on draft day. We may even receive a pick with the Prestia deal.
Lets be honest, if we drafted jarred Polec with pick 5 in 2010, this forum would have exploded by now blaming Ross Lyon, our recruiting staff etc.. "We could have had Heppell or Caddy but instead we got this dud Polec".
I think we may be better of using pick 6 with some certainty and then taking a punt with our 2nd and 3rd rounders on players with massive upside. Al la 2010 draft - jack darling (pick 26) Jeremy Howe (pick 33) Luke Parker (pick 40) even Siposs (pick 75). If we were like Melbourne or gold coast and had a plethora of top draft picks then I could understand rolling the dice and going all out with trying to draft the best available talent, out of 2-3 top 10 picks, law of averages says we are more likely to land a gun.. In 2y time prestia would look pretty handy in our midfield hitting riewoldt and white lace out in the fwd line!! (Roo's last season of course)