Flag tilt 5 years away?

[BigMart]

I've read with interest in half a dozen threads about how we are going to have a flag tilt in about 5 seasons. It seems like its a certainty if you read this site... Only problem is, there is a number of clubs with an arsenal of 20-23 yo players of high quality that has been getting experience for 2-4 years now

For that tilt to happen we need a core group of players at 25-28 ATT who are quality plus some quality kids and some older players 29+ for experience.

10-12 The core group would need to between 21/23 about now.... Need 3/4 A Graders in that group

6-8 Kids 18-20 pulse kids we draft over the next three years 1/2 a graders

And 3 or 4 senior players to fit that mould 1 A grader

You need 6-7 A Graders

I'm not sure we have close to that in the core.... ATM

Unless we have a tradefest like 2000-2002
Where Powell, Voss, Gehrig, Guerra, Penny, knobel, Black, Hamill, Gram came into the club
Or 2007-2008
Gardiner, Schnieder, Dempster, Peake, King, Dawson... We're added to grow the list.

That was targeted recruiting either for QUALITY added or deficiencies addressed..... Not recruiting fringe back up players in case we had injuries... When those injuries occur that's a perfect opportunity for a kid to get some games playing 4/10 with scope rather than a back up playing a 5/10 with no scope.

Example
Riewoldts injury..... Better off playing a Pattison or Stanley.
Midfield injury....... Playing Polo or Steven
Gwilt injury....... Playing Blake or Simpkin

[spert]

I don't see a lot to enthuse about right now, and I don't see enough match-turning spark from recruits over the last few years. Our midfield and onball group are serviceable to good but clearly way behind a lot of teams. I think that recruits such as Wright, Ross, Murdoch and Dunnell need to be in the seniors right now, and getting used to senior footy.

[FQF]

I don't see a lot to enthuse about right now, and I don't see enough match-turning spark from recruits over the last few years. Our midfield and onball group are serviceable to good but clearly way behind a lot of teams. I think that recruits such as Wright, Ross, Murdoch and Dunnell need to be in the seniors right now, and getting used to senior footy.

And what better time to bring them in than this week.

[spert]

I don't see a lot to enthuse about right now, and I don't see enough match-turning spark from recruits over the last few years. Our midfield and onball group are serviceable to good but clearly way behind a lot of teams. I think that recruits such as Wright, Ross, Murdoch and Dunnell need to be in the seniors right now, and getting used to senior footy.

And what better time to bring them in than this week.

Spot-on!

[saint66au]

Everyones saying give the kids time..but time is something we dont have.

Yesterday a bloke with 15 games under his belt kicked 5 goals and was BOG in one of the biggest games of the year. Seen one of our 15 gamers do that recently? Collingwood have 6-8 regular players out yet still win huge games..cos when we were recruiting Johnson, Cahill Pattinson and Heyne they were recruiting Beams Sidebottom Fasolo Jolly and Blair. Thats why they are Top 4 and we arent..to be brutal. Their depth (and Geelongs and Hawthorns) is so much better than ourt its not funny

Cool..we'll give this side til 2016 to show their wares....just as the GWS/GC kids hit their straps and dominate Top 4

[Teflon]

Scary huh?

[joffaboy]

Big Mart is pretty close to the truth unfortunately.

After 2010 GF1, I thought 2015 will be the time we may start to challenge again.

Now looking more like the latter half of the decade.

We weren't bad on Friday night, and were reemed by the umpires, but i heard the same thing against the Tigers I heard for much of last year - "St.kilda still in the game despite being completely domiated by the opposition".

Once we have our aging stars like Lenny, Roo, et al gone or on the downward curve of their careers, those "hanging in there" comments wont be around. We will just get dominated and flogged.

Pessismism is not great, but we may need a season or two like the Dogs (hopefully not Melbourne) before we start the long road back up the ladder.

Watters has stated numerous time we are looking at the recruiting over the next 12-24 months. Put two or three seasons on that for any recruits to gel and get games into them. So at least another five years before we look at top four.

We may need to look at recruiting not just through the draft or we will make the St.Kilda of 2000 look like world beaters.

[saint58]

Everyones saying give the kids time..but time is something we dont have.

Yesterday a bloke with 15 games under his belt kicked 5 goals and was BOG in one of the biggest games of the year. Seen one of our 15 gamers do that recently? Collingwood have 6-8 regular players out yet still win huge games..cos when we were recruiting Johnson, Cahill Pattinson and Heyne they were recruiting Beams Sidebottom Fasolo Jolly and Blair. Thats why they are Top 4 and we arent..to be brutal. Their depth (and Geelongs and Hawthorns) is so much better than ourt its not funny

Cool..we'll give this side til 2016 to show their wares....just as the GWS/GC kids hit their straps and dominate Top 4

What happend to our famed defenceive presser where teams were harrassed and forced into mistakes. We have the core of the back six still there and our midfield so what happend.

Was it RL?

SW was defenceive coach at collingwood so iam buggered to know what happend i would rather kick 6 goals and win the kick 14 and lose!

I know we have kids but so does Hawthorn,Geelong,Collingwood.

We should be up there in the 8 right now i dont subscribe to the thery of rebuild and bottom out we still have enough good players not to do that.

[dragit]

I suppose what we don't know yet is how good some of the guys are that we have already drafted…

We really need one of
White/Lee/Hickey
Newnes/Markworth/Ross
Wright/Murdoch
(2-3)
to become A graders, then hopefully we get a couple more in the next 2 drafts.
(2 from top 5 picks)
I think any of
Saad, MacEvoy, Siposs, Stanley could lift into the top tier in the next 2-3 years
(2 from 4)
= 6-7
Not unfathomable, but would take a lot of things to go right I guess…

Also with FA, we will not have to give up picks and could land a few very good b graders.

It's a long haul, but I actually think we might be dropping off at a time when lots of clubs are actually rising… hopefully their cycles start to wane when we are getting stronger.

[bergholt]

It's a long haul, but I actually think we might be dropping off at a time when lots of clubs are actually rising… hopefully their cycles start to wane when we are getting stronger.

Yep, I think those macro factors are actually going to have the biggest say.

In three years it'll be 2016. GC and GWS should be looking very good, and plenty of the current strong teams look like they've got good young talent coming through so they should be up there. Young teams like Brissie, North and Richmond would be hoping to have also joined them.

That's a lot of competition for spots in the eight and it's very doubtful that we'll be amongst them. So we'll be bottoming out with Melbourne, Footscray, maybe Carlton or even Sydney. Not many that you'd guarantee would be poor then though, so there'll actually be not too much competition for draft picks. God forbid, but we might even deserve a priority pick around then.

At the very least we should end up with a top three draft pick one year and maybe a few top six picks. Use them well - pick 6 in the last few years has been Wingard, Conca, Rohan, Yarran - and we should have a good chance of getting at least a couple of A-graders. Then in 2019 - another three years - we still have Armo, Geary, McEvoy, Saad, Dunell, Steven, Simpkin, Stanley, Lee, Hickey, Roberton, Ledger, Markworth, Siposs, Newnes etc. They all need to have developed reasonably well, but I agree that I can't see more than a couple of A-graders coming from that lot, so that's maybe 4-6. We'll need to have added a couple from trading and FA as well to be close.

Doesn't look impossible? But that's a good six years away at least.

[SainterK]

I think Elliots game is a little overplayed (ducks for cover)

I think it more has to do with throwing a spanner into the works of the opposition coach, who probably hasn't prepared for that particular guy.

It's entirely possible that a kid not particularly starring in the VFL for us, could come in and have good impact for exactly the same reason, that nobody prepared for them.

There is also the scenario of McGuane against us the other night, not sure anyone prepared for that.

I'd like to see say Dunnel in to play down back and Gears into the midfield, not sure Sheeds would expect that.....those are the kind of scenarios that I'm talking about, a debutant that has the advantage of not having much history, or a strategic move.

[Dis Believer]

What happend to our famed defenceive presser where teams were harrassed and forced into mistakes. We have the core of the back six still there and our midfield so what happend.

Was it RL?

SW was defenceive coach at collingwood so iam buggered to know what happend i would rather kick 6 goals and win the kick 14 and lose!

Actually I would argue that point. We had an underdone Sam Fisher fresh out of a moon boot, no Gwilt, No Goddard, No Gram, Dempster with a broken wrist...

There's a strong case to say that the core of our defence has been dismantled in the past year or so and we were a team built on defence, so maybe therein lies our problem......

[dragit]

I think Elliots game is a little overplayed (ducks for cover)

I think it more has to do with throwing a spanner into the works of the opposition coach, who probably hasn't prepared for that particular guy.

It's entirely possible that a kid not particularly starring in the VFL for us, could come in and have good impact for exactly the same reason, that nobody prepared for them.

There is also the scenario of McGuane against us the other night, not sure anyone prepared for that.

I'd like to see say Dunnel in to play down back and Gears into the midfield, not sure Sheeds would expect that.....those are the kind of scenarios that I'm talking about, a debutant that has the advantage of not having much history, or a strategic move.

Could be overplayed, but I did watch a little of collingwood in the VFL and saw Didak, Krakour & Thomas running around.

Just think its good to see a team that is vying for a flag willing to back a youngster for a huge match, rather than look to an older star that is under done or out of form. Imagine the confidence Elliott has gained from that match.

[Con Gorozidis]

7 years probably more like it meaning anyone over 24 now will be gone.
Gws will be hard to beat in 4 or 5 years.

That still leaves a core group of siposs hickey newnes roberton stanley simpkin steven to build on.

[SinCitySainter]

I hate to say it but I think it is more to do with development than recruitment.
Geelong, Collingwood and Hawthorn all have the resources to take in young players and have almost personalised training programs developed for them.
What this means is that they can take a middle of the road kid and give them every opportunity to turn them into a servicable player.
We don't have those resources so middle of the road kids remain middle of the road.
Our kids are just as good as everyone elses kids.
It is no coincidence that the richer teams with better resources seem to recruit players who are ready for senior football sooner than the poorer teams can. They are not recruiting better thay are developing better.
The cream shows through regardless of the development but it is in developing the midrange players where the well resourced clubs hav a huge advantage.

[BigMart]

We just didn't give enough opportunities to younger players from 2009-2011

Armitage, Geary, Steven, Stanley, Lynch (harder for McEvoy)..... We're not filtered through enough.... If these are the kids we drafted... Filter them in..... If they couldn't cut the mustard after 20 or so games... Get new ones in...

HTF were Polo, Pattison and some other very average players getting a game. As decoys? Because they could tackle? Because Lyon believed players had to be in the system for 4 years before they could handle AFL?

[bergholt]

We just didn't give enough opportunities to younger players from 2009-2011

That's a stupid argument. Unless you can guarantee that, using that strategy, we would have made two grand finals and come very close to winning them, then the only conclusion to draw is that Lyon did the right thing. What if he'd played a kid or two more and we'd lost another prelim? Would that have made you happy?

We were in contention and in that case you shouldn't think about the long-term, simply about how best to win the flag that year. We failed, but not for want of trying.

[spert]

We just didn't give enough opportunities to younger players from 2009-2011

That's a stupid argument. Unless you can guarantee that, using that strategy, we would have made two grand finals and come very close to winning them, then the only conclusion to draw is that Lyon did the right thing. What if he'd played a kid or two more and we'd lost another prelim? Would that have made you happy?

We were in contention and in that case you shouldn't think about the long-term, simply about how best to win the flag that year. We failed, but not for want of trying.

We didn't win a premiership, so the crop of players didn't have the goods regardless of how close, or which way a bloody bounce went etc etc..maybe one of the young players might have had a purple patch in one quarter and slotted a couple of goals that one of the experienced heads couldn't do.

[lloyd21]

Could be right won't really know for another year or two but using example of the benchmark in recent times Geelong

Stephen Motlop ( 2008 draft )

Allen Christiansen ( 2009 draft)

Taylor Hunt (2008 draft )

Horlin Smith (2010 draft)

All these guys are playing more regular now for the Cats so there is your time frame for Stkilda's list .

[Quixote]

Some good analysis, thanks to all contributing.


For my brief 2 cents - it's Play The Kids time now pretty much at all costs. And some honourable retirements come season's end.

[saint66au]

I think Elliots game is a little overplayed (ducks for cover)

I think it more has to do with throwing a spanner into the works of the opposition coach, who probably hasn't prepared for that particular guy.

It's entirely possible that a kid not particularly starring in the VFL for us, could come in and have good impact for exactly the same reason, that nobody prepared for them.

There is also the scenario of McGuane against us the other night, not sure anyone prepared for that.

I'd like to see say Dunnel in to play down back and Gears into the midfield, not sure Sheeds would expect that.....those are the kind of scenarios that I'm talking about, a debutant that has the advantage of not having much history, or a strategic move.

Take your point..but when was the last time one of our blokes with that amount of experience snuck under the radar grabbed a game by the scruff of his neck? Luke Ball? Roo? Sure as hell noone in the last 10 years

[bergholt]

We didn't win a premiership, so the crop of players didn't have the goods regardless of how close, or which way a bloody bounce went etc etc..maybe one of the young players might have had a purple patch in one quarter and slotted a couple of goals that one of the experienced heads couldn't do.

Yep, sure, but more likely given how good they seem to be now, they would have contributed less than the "spud" who played in their place so we wouldn't have even got through those close finals to get to the Grand Final in the first place.

[mad saint guy]

We really do need about three amazing off-seasons in which we draft brilliantly, trade ruthlessly and steal a few guns through FA, otherwise I think it could be much longer than five years before we contend again.

The core of our side is old. The younger players we currently have can't replace the core - they are mostly support players with limited talent. Siposs, Stanley and Steven being the exceptions.

Likely retirements over the next two years: Hayes, Milne, Riewoldt, Kosi, Blake, Fisher

Retirements over the following two years: Dal Santo, Montagna, Dempster, Schneider


Our best team from our current list would then be something like this in five years:

B: Gwilt (31), Simpkin (27), Geary (29)
HB: Gilbert (31), Stanley (27), Newnes (25)
C: Wright (24), Armitage (29), Curren (25)
HF: Siposs (25), Lee (27), Dunell (28)
F: Saad (28), White (23), Markworth (26)

Foll: McEvoy (28), Steven (28), Ross (24)
Int: Ray (31), Hickey (27), Ledger (26), Roberton (26)


And there's only 9 or 10 players in that team who I would say have a safe future in the AFL. Half of the team would need to be quality recruits if we're going to be challenging in 5 years.

[saintspremiers]

Basically barring a miracle recruiting or development period we are FAARKED come 2015.

Almost certainties to be bottom 4 sometime over the next 3 years IMO.

WHY aren't Dunnell, Ross, Ledger demanding spots??

WHY did Siposs look B grade on Friday night?

None of the above are A grade at the moment. Will be lucky if one of them become A grade eventually.

The fact that Kosi and Blake are still on the list as insurance is really damning and smacks utter desperation due to our lack of quality kids.

[Quixote]

Bottom 4 sounds awesome, at least we can go back to abusing the s*** out of any and everyone and at the same time being kind of liked for being shithouse.