Goddard hits back at Westaway

[osama milne laden]

He'd never have made a similar statement...
http://physed.otago.ac.nz/staff/dbooth.html

[Dave McNamara]

When one is on $500/600+ p.a., would a few hundred thousand dollars here or there really be that significant??? (Oh, and that's gross, and then you pay tax.)

Yes a few hundred thousand is very significant to probably everyone on this planet .

IMHO top line footballers like BJ should be well set-up financially after ten years in the system.

Hi Felix, I hear where you are coming from, however my point is that someone in BJ's position should be financially set by now, and be able to play for the love of the game c/f out of financial necessity. If he's invested wisely, he should be on a passive income of several hundred thousand a year.

NB: For simplicity I'm including increasing equity in his investment portfolio (such as real estate) as passive income. I'm also assuming/hoping that he didn't take share tips from Ro$$y...

[felix]

When one is on $500/600+ p.a., would a few hundred thousand dollars here or there really be that significant??? (Oh, and that's gross, and then you pay tax.)

Yes a few hundred thousand is very significant to probably everyone on this planet .

IMHO top line footballers like BJ should be well set-up financially after ten years in the system.

Hi Felix, I hear where you are coming from, however my point is that someone in BJ's position should be financially set by now, and be able to play for the love of the game c/f out of financial necessity. If he's invested wisely, he should be on a passive income of several hundred thousand a year.

NB: For simplicity I'm including increasing equity in his investment portfolio (such as real estate) as passive income. I'm also assuming/hoping that he didn't take share tips from Ro$$y...

Not to sure it works like that in the real world , another big real estate crash around the corner ..over capitalised maybe .. Divorce might cost half one day , injury cut career short..stock market crashes ... Can't take anything for granted these days ..he maybe unemployable down the track . Your a long time out of footy so take the money while you can . Life is bigger than footy .

[Dave McNamara]

Not to sure it works like that in the real world , another big real estate crash around the corner ..over capitalised maybe .. Divorce might cost half one day , injury cut career short..stock market crashes ... Can't take anything for granted these days ..he maybe unemployable down the track . Your a long time out of footy so take the money while you can . Life is bigger than footy .

Again, all true and possible points Felix.

Everyone says, yeah, they maybe on the good $$$, but it's only for a short time. But remember, these blokes get to earn in a decade what it takes the average punter maybe a lifetime to earn. That provides an incredible opportunity to invest to set oneself up for life in a relatively short space of time.

Being conservative...

By 2005 he could have bought $2mil in inner city real estate (say 4* $500k properties).
He's be on the top tax rate, so say approx half of whatever the going interest rate is could be written off against his tax.
The tenant pays another 2-3% net in rent. (This will effectively increase with inflation.)
Other various deprecation write-offs can go towards any repairs.
So that covers the bulk of his interest repayments to the bank...
Since 2005 those properties would have comfortably at least doubled...

So that's $2mil in equity (less interest repayments), just there.

Everyone worries about a real estate crash. However, since the city's founding, Melbourne real estate has an average growth rate of ~8% p.a. (or is it 10???) Regardless, that figure includes all suburbs, so in-demand areas like the inner city will outperform that average.

Also there's the laws of supply and demand. The last figures I heard were that 2000 people (net) move to Melbs every week. I doubt that we are building 2000 new bedrooms a week... or even 1000 if people share...

As for share market crashes... there's stop losses, and follow the strategies of Warren Buffet, not Ro$$y.

And hey, as I said, all the above is just conservative. I'm sure there're fellow Saintsationalists who could provide advice to BJ to invest considerably more effectively.

[Reggie]

Heres my take for what its worth

1. It is clearly about the money and nothing else. He exercised his right under the FTA and moved to the northern side of the Yarra on a 4 year big $$ offer. We had to match the offer or he was gone we chose not to or could not. we only found out of the details of the deal once the FTA window opened so I believe Westerway cleary knows the details of deal from Essendon as we had to match it so $750K 4th year is probably spot on.
2. If he was chasing a premiership good luck to him but the odds aren't good, there are no guarantees. most "experts" have them equal to us on the ladder and we are on the rebuild apparently
3. Footy is a team sport. the ability of your bottom 6 players compaired to the opposition's has a direct bearing on the outcome of the match rather than the superstar in the side. I'm not saying you don't need them in your side more so its a question of balance.

In the end we don't need a petulant sook that cracks the sads when thing don't go his way rather than showing leadership and example (ie. Lenny). What we have seen is him jump ship when things don't look so great. Out of adversity comes opportunity.

[bergholt]

If players want free agency then the footy public should have the right to know what they get paid. The NBA publish player salaries every season, everyone knows where they stand. Easy.

How did this post sink? It's absolutely correct. These guys want to be paid oversize amounts but not have anyone know about it, including the supporters who eventually pay their wages. Make them all public and see what happens.

[plugger66]

If players want free agency then the footy public should have the right to know what they get paid. The NBA publish player salaries every season, everyone knows where they stand. Easy.

How did this post sink? It's absolutely correct. These guys want to be paid oversize amounts but not have anyone know about it, including the supporters who eventually pay their wages. Make them all public and see what happens.

Sorry but I dont agree. The public pay most peoples wages in some way but we dont get to see what others earn. It seems a harder question to ask your mates what they earn than who they will vote for. I cant see any reason why we have the right to know what a player earns.

[bergholt]

Sorry but I dont agree. The public pay most peoples wages in some way but we dont get to see what others earn. It seems a harder question to ask your mates what they earn than who they will vote for. I cant see any reason why we have the right to know what a player earns.

See, I'm actually in favour of all tax returns being public, as they do in much of Scandinavia without any obvious negative effects. It'd be great to know whether people like Rinehart, Palmer and Forrest actually pay much tax at all.

[Reggie]

If players want free agency then the footy public should have the right to know what they get paid. The NBA publish player salaries every season, everyone knows where they stand. Easy.

How did this post sink? It's absolutely correct. These guys want to be paid oversize amounts but not have anyone know about it, including the supporters who eventually pay their wages. Make them all public and see what happens.

Sorry but I dont agree. The public pay most peoples wages in some way but we dont get to see what others earn. It seems a harder question to ask your mates what they earn than who they will vote for. I cant see any reason why we have the right to know what a player earns.

Work in any job thats covered by an EBA you can find out what they earn its a simple as going onto the FWA website and veiwing/download the EBA for the employer and union argreement they are all there.

[plugger66]

How did this post sink? It's absolutely correct. These guys want to be paid oversize amounts but not have anyone know about it, including the supporters who eventually pay their wages. Make them all public and see what happens.

Sorry but I dont agree. The public pay most peoples wages in some way but we dont get to see what others earn. It seems a harder question to ask your mates what they earn than who they will vote for. I cant see any reason why we have the right to know what a player earns.

Work in any job thats covered by an EBA you can find out what they earn its a simple as going onto the FWA website and veiwing/download the EBA for the employer and union argreement they are all there.

What about overtime and other benefits. Anyway there are many jobs that you wouldnt be able to find out what someone earns. I can honestly say I have no idea what any of my mates earn.

[felix]

Not to sure it works like that in the real world , another big real estate crash around the corner ..over capitalised maybe .. Divorce might cost half one day , injury cut career short..stock market crashes ... Can't take anything for granted these days ..he maybe unemployable down the track . Your a long time out of footy so take the money while you can . Life is bigger than footy .

Again, all true and possible points Felix.

Everyone says, yeah, they maybe on the good $$$, but it's only for a short time. But remember, these blokes get to earn in a decade what it takes the average punter maybe a lifetime to earn. That provides an incredible opportunity to invest to set oneself up for life in a relatively short space of time.

Being conservative...

By 2005 he could have bought $2mil in inner city real estate (say 4* $500k properties).
He's be on the top tax rate, so say approx half of whatever the going interest rate is could be written off against his tax.
The tenant pays another 2-3% net in rent. (This will effectively increase with inflation.)
Other various deprecation write-offs can go towards any repairs.
So that covers the bulk of his interest repayments to the bank...
Since 2005 those properties would have comfortably at least doubled...

So that's $2mil in equity (less interest repayments), just there.

Everyone worries about a real estate crash. However, since the city's founding, Melbourne real estate has an average growth rate of ~8% p.a. (or is it 10???) Regardless, that figure includes all suburbs, so in-demand areas like the inner city will outperform that average.

Also there's the laws of supply and demand. The last figures I heard were that 2000 people (net) move to Melbs every week. I doubt that we are building 2000 new bedrooms a week... or even 1000 if people share...

As for share market crashes... there's stop losses, and follow the strategies of Warren Buffet, not Ro$$y.

And hey, as I said, all the above is just conservative. I'm sure there're fellow Saintsationalists who could provide advice to BJ to invest considerably more effectively.

Has he done any of that !!! Yes the city may have had n average growth rate of 8% over its life time that doesn't mean every one made money Over the last. 10 years . I still think to say he should give up a few hundred thou is naive no matter how much more money he made than you .

[SaintPav]

Everyone worries about a real estate crash. However, since the city's founding, Melbourne real estate has an average growth rate of ~8% p.a. (or is it 10???)

.

Maybe since the mid Sixties and the higher number since the late 90s when credit growth began to expand at 11% a year.

Property hasn't performed that well over a longer time horizon or since 1835 as you sugegsted. It's probably just tracked inflation over this longer time horizon of say 3-3.5%.

Try doubling $20 every seven years since 1835 (10.2% growth rate) and see what number you get.

[plugger66]

Everyone worries about a real estate crash. However, since the city's founding, Melbourne real estate has an average growth rate of ~8% p.a. (or is it 10???)

.

Maybe since the mid Sixties and the higher number since the late 90s when credit growth began to expand at 11% a year.

Property hasn't performed that well over a longer time horizon or since 1835 as you sugegsted. It's probably just tracked inflation over this longer time horizon of say 3-3.5%.

Try doubling $20 every seven years since 1835 (10.2% growth rate) and see what number you get.

about 680 million.

[Dave McNamara]

Has he done any of that !!!

I would hope so Felix. He's certainly had the chance to do some of the above, and a whole lot more.

Yes the city may have had n average growth rate of 8% over its life time that doesn't mean every one made money Over the last. 10 years . I still think to say he should give up a few hundred thou is naive no matter how much more money he made than you .

No, I never said that he should give up a few hundred thou', I said that he should be in a position where he could afford to... there's a difference.

That said, if you're on $650K-odd for four years c/f $800k-odd... are you really going to be doing it tough...?

He's still earning in about a decade what it takes the average punter (often) a lifetime to earn (and good luck to him)... and that provides an incredible opportunity to set oneself up for life. Another way to look on it could be, if someone in BJ's situation isn't pretty set financially by now, then something's wrong...

Everyone worries about a real estate crash. However, since the city's founding, Melbourne real estate has an average growth rate of ~8% p.a. (or is it 10???)

.

Maybe since the mid Sixties and the higher number since the late 90s when credit growth began to expand at 11% a year.

Property hasn't performed that well over a longer time horizon or since 1835 as you sugegsted. It's probably just tracked inflation over this longer time horizon of say 3-3.5%.

Try doubling $20 every seven years since 1835 (10.2% growth rate) and see what number you get.

The following are Australia-wide figures. Prime suburbs in Melbs' would easily do better again...

England
England has by far the longest uninterrupted collection of price statistics on land and property compared to any other country on earth. This is because, when the Normans conquered the Saxons in 1066 A.D., they introduced a method of governing England through a unique collection of statistics in every parish.

The Doomsday Book, maintained in every parish in England since 1088 a.d., has collected meticulously accurate statistics on every birth, death, marriage and sale of land. Because of this unique and accurate history of land prices, researchers have done much study on property prices in England.

The result is that, for 919 years, property prices have raised at a compound rate of increase of 10.2% per annum. The Rule of 72 states that any number which increases at 10% p.a. compound, doubles every 7.2 years. So, for over 900 years, property prices in England have been doubling, on average, every 7 years.

Australia

In Australia, over some 120 years or so of not quite so accurate statistics, (edit: c/f England's) property prices have risen at an average compound rate of 10.4%, very slightly ahead of England.

Again, property prices have doubled every 7 years or so despite droughts, wars, changes of government, interstate and overseas migration, interest rate movements, exchange rate movements, changing rates of unemployment, CPI movements, etc etc.

http://www.propertyplanet.com.au/cms-in ... ourne.phps

[Richter]

Oh come on if the invest smartly a guy like BJ is set up for life already. Half of them are gambling addicts because they can't think of anything to spend time and money on. Poor bastards are molly coddled and have no life skills because they are little prima donna bitches who have it all done for them and then get upset when they play s*** and still want more.

From here http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/0/football/21790728

Riches to Rags: Millionaire footballers who lose everything

[Lee Hendrie] ... is just one of a number of footballers facing serious financial problems. The group claims as many as three in five Premier League footballers face bankruptcy within five years of retiring from the game. Gordon Taylor, chief executive of the Professional Footballers' Association, disputes these figures, saying it is closer to 10% or 20%, but the fact that many multi-millionaire players fall on hard times is not in question. It is hard to feel sympathy for footballers, especially when they're happy to showcase their flash lifestyle

...

Peter Kelsey, who advises wealthy people, including footballers and TV presenters, says he often has to tell his clients that their fame and wealth can be temporary. He says: "I tell them that their careers aren't likely to last as long as they want them to and stress the importance of financial planning but it's a difficult reality to accept. "Footballers fall into a group who aren't as well educated as other rich people around them and have role-models who aren't always the best examples."

"It is about saving, about being sensible, about being careful - it's about not expecting to have the same lifestyle. Not everybody can adapt. That exit strategy is important."

It's about footballers in England, but it is a sobering article nonetheless and suggests that perhaps going for the cash grab as a young sportsman is really not all that it is cracked up to be...

[SaintPav]

http://www.propertyplanet.com.au/cms-in ... ourne.phps[/url]

[/quote]

Dave, thanks for the link and no offense meant, but I think that site is wrong and I wouldn't be trusting a website called property planet to give non biased advice on property investment. I can't believe they are allowed to get away with this sort of stuff. It sounds like typical real estate marketing and PR. Official property data only goes back to the mid sixties anyway. The claim that property prices have doubled every seven years over the last 120 years is an outright lie IMO. While its might have done so since say 1996, it certainly has not done over the last 120 years. It's a mathematical impossibility. Property has gone down in Melbourne over certain periods and it does.


There are plenty of good blogs out there which do not have a conflict of interest in providing commentary on economic, financial or property issues. Macro business is a good one.