How good are Armo and Steven actually?

[PJ]

As someone pointed out Armo can impact the mental contest with his intimidation.The value of his aggression needs to be taken into consideration when judging him. Teflon's comparison to Stephen Powell is on the money, players would sh*t themselves when Powell was around - Night GF vs Geelong (I believe "red headed c***" was his expression).

[Kickit]

Nice point JB

ppl forget that our premium players weren't always premium players

Dal and Lenny weren't frequently flagged as drifters til about 5 years ago

hence the importance of continuing to persevere with players that show something rather than play them 2-3 times, dump them for not being good enough and replace them with McQualter etc because they're already at their peak

Fanciful argument at best, Lenny won a B&F & AA in 03, while Dal had numerous top 5 B&F results plus was 3rd in the brownlow in 2005 - 8 years ago, younger than both Armo & Jack now.

I don't think anyone is suggesting they should be dropped, just thinking about where they rank in the league right now... Would like nothing better than if they got anywhere near Dal & Lenny, but right now they aren't tracking that trajectory. Who knows though.

I know raw disposals are a limited way of evaluating, but it is a general measure.
In their first fifty games , Lenny averaged 14.6 disposals , max 25. (3 seasons ) Dal Santo averaged 16, max 27 ( 3 seasons ) . Montagna : Average 15 max 34. ( 5 seasons ).
Steven 18.4 disposals , max 29 ( 4 seasons ) Armitage Average 14, max 26 ( 5 seasons ).
I dont think Steven is tracking too badly at all, and I blame the Lyon development program for their slow progress.

[st_Trav_ofWA]

might be worth factoring the comp average of dissposals in those years ...
for example in lennys first three years the player with the most disposals average was 25.7, 27.8 and 24.8
in Dals first three it was 23.2, 27.8 and 25.2
and in joeys first five it was 23.2, 27.8 , 25.2 ,28.9 and 29.5

for Armo 27.8, 29.2 , 30.7 , 31.5 and 31.6
for Jack 30.7 , 31.5 31.6 and 34.5

so the figures for disposal might not be a true indication as the ammount of disposals from when lenny started to last year has grown signifigantly

[Kickit]

True.
St Kilda are averaging around 26% more disposals than in 2003. The best teams are averaging around 25% more than the best team in 2003.
Interestingly the best players are only averaging 14% more than the best players were in 2003. ( Buckley, Black , West vs Beans , Thompson, Swan ).

If you add a 14% loading to the oldie's Steven still compare's OK.

[dragit]

This is where stats are pretty irrelevant...

When Dal was Jack's age...
2005 - 21 years old - 4th season
75 games
All Australian - starting midfield
3rd in the brownlow

When Lenny was Armo's age...
2003 - 23 years old - 5th season
93 games
All Australian
B&F winner

To say that Dal & Lenny weren't going that well at the same age is ridiculous, granted they probably had more opportunities at the same age, however they were both considered AA midfielders by 23 and we are generally agreeing that Jack & Armo aren't yet in the top 50. Chalk and cheese.

[Spinner]

This is where stats are pretty irrelevant...

When Dal was Jack's age...
2005 - 21 years old - 4th season
75 games
All Australian - starting midfield
3rd in the brownlow

When Lenny was Armo's age...
2003 - 23 years old - 5th season
93 games
All Australian
B&F winner

To say that Dal & Lenny weren't going that well at the same age is ridiculous, granted they probably had more opportunities at the same age, however they were both considered AA midfielders by 23 and we are generally agreeing that Jack & Armo aren't yet in the top 50. Chalk and cheese.

Spot on. Lenny took a bit more, maybe 5 years. Dal was straight into it.

[gringo]

I still believe that both Armo and Steven will develop into the next a graders in the midfield. Armo was stifled under Ross and hasn't had the development that a guy his age would usually have had. He's come to play with his better fitness this year and will lift again is my guess. Steven is still a work in progress and it's hard not to argue that as a group the current guys lifted once Haves left. Steven looks like a Dane swan type in more than his gait. Just needs to get his head around where he could take his game to and he could be anything.

I think Sainter K was just referring to his NZ and driving incidents and suggesting he stops partying and starts knuckling down. Not a bad suggestion for any young footballer.

[Kickit]

I still believe that both Armo and Steven will develop into the next a graders in the midfield. Armo was stifled under Ross and hasn't had the development that a guy his age would usually have had. He's come to play with his better fitness this year and will lift again is my guess. Steven is still a work in progress and it's hard not to argue that as a group the current guys lifted once Haves left. Steven looks like a Dane swan type in more than his gait. Just needs to get his head around where he could take his game to and he could be anything.

I think Sainter K was just referring to his NZ and driving incidents and suggesting he stops partying and starts knuckling down. Not a bad suggestion for any young footballer.

Absolutely which is why I was looking at performance compared to number of games, rather than by age/season.

[Teflon]

This is where stats are pretty irrelevant...

When Dal was Jack's age...
2005 - 21 years old - 4th season
75 games
All Australian - starting midfield
3rd in the brownlow

When Lenny was Armo's age...
2003 - 23 years old - 5th season
93 games
All Australian
B&F winner

To say that Dal & Lenny weren't going that well at the same age is ridiculous, granted they probably had more opportunities at the same age, however they were both considered AA midfielders by 23 and we are generally agreeing that Jack & Armo aren't yet in the top 50. Chalk and cheese.

Geez...Jack/Armo.....its all in front of you going off that.

Jack has till the end of this year to make AA starting midfield and finish 3rd in the Brownlow........I cant see it.

Lets not pressure these guys - they are solid mids hopefully aka Montagna level but not in Hayes/Dal class so IMO IF we can snag an A grader or 2 in drafts/free trade next few seasons we will be well placed by the midfield cause by then Armo/Jack would certainly be v good midfield depth.

[hungry for a premiership]

"How good they were at the same age" is irrelevant - remember Dal, Lenny and co. were given heavy midfield responsibility from the get-go, whilst Jack and Armo have been forced to undergo a bastards entry & growth into the team... In all practical reality, they've both only played two seasons of real football in the midfield.


As of now, the OP puts Jack and Armo in the same group as Monty (B Grade). I wondered about that, so I checked the 2012 stats to see if this claim stands up to the cold hard light of scientific investigation, or whether it pales away into so much insignificance under the blow-torch of truth that is statistical evidence... (our whole society, the entire structure and paradigm of Western culture, is built on the premise that the way to understand the truth of the world around us is to look at the scientific evidence, which is revealed to us first & foremost through numbers, mathematics and statistics, and then only a distant 2nd by observations made through use of the shady and deceptive 5 senses, which so easily lend themselves to manipulation by an individuals conscious or unconscious wants and desires, especially in a game like football.)
Are Jack & Armo as good as Monty? Right now, that is? Here is what science, the harbinger of truth and foundation of modern civilization, has to say about the matter:


'12 averages: DISPOSALS MARKS TACKLES GOALS DREAMTEAM
MONTY:______23.5______4.5____4.7_____0.6____96.7___
ARMO:_______20.3_______4.8____4.7_____0.8____89.2___
JACK:________20.2_______3.7_____4______0.8____84.2___
__________TOTAL_____
MONTY:____130____
ARMO:_____119.8__
JACK:______112.9__

Now compare this with our two genuine A-Graders (as alleged by OP) in Lenny and Dal:
'12 averages: DISPOSALS MARKS TACKLES GOALS DREAMTEAM
LENNY:______24.5______3.2_____5.9____0.3_____95.1___
DAL:________23.3______2.8_____4.6____0.8_____91.5___

TOTALS:
MONTY: 130
LENNY: 129
DAL: 123
ARMO: 119.8
JACK: 112.9

Prognosis:
-Leigh Montagna is a very under-rated player. Well, not by the club - he did finish 2nd in the B&F. But by the OP, yes.
-As it stands now, we have 2 A-graders; Monty & Lenny. Dal stands slightly above Armo in the realm of a solid B-grader (though if Armo takes as big a step forward this year as he did last, he'll move into A-grade territory). Jack is hovering between low B to high C grade range.

Just out of interest, I thought apply this same scrutiny to BJ to see what we've really lost. Here goes:

'12 avg: BJ
DISPOSALS:___24.3___
MARKS:_______6_____
TACKLES:______3_____
GOALS:_______0.6____
DREAMTEAM:___97.3___

TOTAL:________131.2_______


Prognosis:
-Make no mistake about it, we're going to miss him. He was our best A-grader.

We're going to need not just one, but a small crop of talented youngsters coming through to fill that particular breach. It can be done. If we get a decent chunk of improvement from all of Sipposs, Stanley, Simpkin, Saad, Ross/Newnes/Ledger, and Milera and the old core has a good year with injuries, we're back in front. And if Hickey, Lee & TDL can have a significant impact on top of this...well, anything's possible.

EDIT
(I applied the above formula to last years brownlow medalist Jobe Watson, him being adjudged the best A-grader in the league, to give the top end of the A-B-C-D grade scale - his total score was 152)

[bergholt]

As of now, the OP puts Jack and Armo in the same group as Monty (B Grade).

Actually, I was trying to make a point by putting the best possible spin on them. I did say "You could make the case that quite a few of these guys are still a bit ahead of both Steven and Armo..." which would obviously include Joey.

You're absolutely right that Joey is a very good player, and probably underrated by both Saints supporters and supporters of other clubs. But despite your stats, I still maintain that he's behind Lenny, Dal and the other guys in that star group.

[minneapolis]

Great discussion. Could you please have a go at naming the two guys who are currently at the club who you believe will join them in the midfield group mentioned in the OP?

[dragit]

Great discussion. Could you please have a go at naming the two guys who are currently at the club who you believe will join them in the midfield group mentioned in the OP?

Newnes & Ross... but not for awhile obviously.

[spert]

Good but could be better- both need to work on aerobic capacity, and should spend time with a running coach. Steven holds on to the ball too long and in many cases, is disposing off-balance as he is about to be tackled, which doesn't help those down field who are trying to read the play. Armo and Steven need to show improvement this season, as I had hoped they would last season but disappointed me a bit.

[Richter]

We're going to need not just one, but a small crop of talented youngsters coming through to fill that particular breach. It can be done. If we get a decent chunk of improvement from all of Sipposs, Stanley, Simpkin, Saad, Ross/Newnes/Ledger, and Milera and the old core has a good year with injuries, we're back in front. And if Hickey, Lee & TDL can have a significant impact on top of this...well, anything's possible.

Some superb analysis hfap.

A couple of points though... IMO the stats give a 'raw score' which helps us to get a rough guesstimate of a player's worth. However, they do not tell us the whole picture e.g they don't tell us that Lenny is an inside hard-nut, that Dal has a well-balanced inside and outside game, but whose greatest quality is his high consistency of excellent ball-use, or that BJ is a good setter-up of play (a quarterback if you will) who can also swing forward with ease to be a half-forward marking target but who is not an A grade inside player (perhaps his lower tackle count implies this though?)

The stats measure the specific variable, putting them together to provide a coherent narrative inevitably involves a large dose of subjectivity.

PS I fully agree with the paragraph I have quoted.

[bergholt]

Great discussion. Could you please have a go at naming the two guys who are currently at the club who you believe will join them in the midfield group mentioned in the OP?

It's a great question, but surely it's impossible to tell at this point. My thoughts on a couple of them who we've got some information about:

- Milera: Won't get to top 50 but will be useful
- Armitage: As mentioned, will be solid for a good while, might scrape top 50 but won't get to top 20
- Dennis-Lane: Won't be a midfielder
- Steven: could definitely get to top 50, outside chance at top 20
- Dunell: No idea if he'll be a mid or not, feels more like a HBF
- Roberton: Smokey for top 50, still very young and has a lot of developing to do
- Ledger: Has a lot of the tools, could easily get to top 50 if the penny drops for him
- Markworth: promising signs for top 50, but his body has to hold up
- Siposs: could be anything, not sure if he'll be a full-time mid but he's the best chance at top 20
- Newnes: very likely to be top 50, relatively unlikely to be top 20 as he doesn't excel in anything - but attitude goes a long way
- Ross: no idea but people seem to rate him, that suggests he'll get to top 50 at least

So Siposs is the only one I think has a chance of being a superstar; Armo, Steven, Ledger, Newnes and Ross are likely to play a lot of midfield games in the next five years if all goes according to plan.

[elizabethr]

Comparisons are odious !

[SaintPav]

Great discussion. Could you please have a go at naming the two guys who are currently at the club who you believe will join them in the midfield group mentioned in the OP?

It's a great question, but surely it's impossible to tell at this point. My thoughts on a couple of them who we've got some information about:

- Milera: Won't get to top 50 but will be useful
- Armitage: As mentioned, will be solid for a good while, might scrape top 50 but won't get to top 20
- Dennis-Lane: Won't be a midfielder
- Steven: could definitely get to top 50, outside chance at top 20
- Dunell: No idea if he'll be a mid or not, feels more like a HBF
- Roberton: Smokey for top 50, still very young and has a lot of developing to do
- Ledger: Has a lot of the tools, could easily get to top 50 if the penny drops for him
- Markworth: promising signs for top 50, but his body has to hold up
- Siposs: could be anything, not sure if he'll be a full-time mid but he's the best chance at top 20
- Newnes: very likely to be top 50, relatively unlikely to be top 20 as he doesn't excel in anything - but attitude goes a long way
- Ross: no idea but people seem to rate him, that suggests he'll get to top 50 at least

So Siposs is the only one I think has a chance of being a superstar; Armo, Steven, Ledger, Newnes and Ross are likely to play a lot of midfield games in the next five years if all goes according to plan.

What about Saad?

I bet that most of these will be GOP and that our next super star doesn't come from this lot.

[gringo]

Great discussion. Could you please have a go at naming the two guys who are currently at the club who you believe will join them in the midfield group mentioned in the OP?

It's a great question, but surely it's impossible to tell at this point. My thoughts on a couple of them who we've got some information about:

- Milera: Won't get to top 50 but will be useful
- Armitage: As mentioned, will be solid for a good while, might scrape top 50 but won't get to top 20
- Dennis-Lane: Won't be a midfielder
- Steven: could definitely get to top 50, outside chance at top 20
- Dunell: No idea if he'll be a mid or not, feels more like a HBF
- Roberton: Smokey for top 50, still very young and has a lot of developing to do
- Ledger: Has a lot of the tools, could easily get to top 50 if the penny drops for him
- Markworth: promising signs for top 50, but his body has to hold up
- Siposs: could be anything, not sure if he'll be a full-time mid but he's the best chance at top 20
- Newnes: very likely to be top 50, relatively unlikely to be top 20 as he doesn't excel in anything - but attitude goes a long way
- Ross: no idea but people seem to rate him, that suggests he'll get to top 50 at least

So Siposs is the only one I think has a chance of being a superstar; Armo, Steven, Ledger, Newnes and Ross are likely to play a lot of midfield games in the next five years if all goes according to plan.

I think both Armo and Steven have the ability to be top 50 but would require a shift in belief and application. Jobe Watson looked like a dud early on and if he'd played as well as Armo dons would have been happy. Like wise Dane Swan. Two brownlow medalists that show that early career form doesn't always suggest the future.

[kosifantutti]

"How good they were at the same age" is irrelevant - remember Dal, Lenny and co. were given heavy midfield responsibility from the get-go, whilst Jack and Armo have been forced to undergo a bastards entry & growth into the team... In all practical reality, they've both only played two seasons of real football in the midfield.


As of now, the OP puts Jack and Armo in the same group as Monty (B Grade). I wondered about that, so I checked the 2012 stats to see if this claim stands up to the cold hard light of scientific investigation, or whether it pales away into so much insignificance under the blow-torch of truth that is statistical evidence... (our whole society, the entire structure and paradigm of Western culture, is built on the premise that the way to understand the truth of the world around us is to look at the scientific evidence, which is revealed to us first & foremost through numbers, mathematics and statistics, and then only a distant 2nd by observations made through use of the shady and deceptive 5 senses, which so easily lend themselves to manipulation by an individuals conscious or unconscious wants and desires, especially in a game like football.)
Are Jack & Armo as good as Monty? Right now, that is? Here is what science, the harbinger of truth and foundation of modern civilization, has to say about the matter:


'12 averages: DISPOSALS MARKS TACKLES GOALS DREAMTEAM
MONTY:______23.5______4.5____4.7_____0.6____96.7___
ARMO:_______20.3_______4.8____4.7_____0.8____89.2___
JACK:________20.2_______3.7_____4______0.8____84.2___
__________TOTAL_____
MONTY:____130____
ARMO:_____119.8__
JACK:______112.9__

Now compare this with our two genuine A-Graders (as alleged by OP) in Lenny and Dal:
'12 averages: DISPOSALS MARKS TACKLES GOALS DREAMTEAM
LENNY:______24.5______3.2_____5.9____0.3_____95.1___
DAL:________23.3______2.8_____4.6____0.8_____91.5___

TOTALS:
MONTY: 130
LENNY: 129
DAL: 123
ARMO: 119.8
JACK: 112.9

Prognosis:
-Leigh Montagna is a very under-rated player. Well, not by the club - he did finish 2nd in the B&F. But by the OP, yes.
-As it stands now, we have 2 A-graders; Monty & Lenny. Dal stands slightly above Armo in the realm of a solid B-grader (though if Armo takes as big a step forward this year as he did last, he'll move into A-grade territory). Jack is hovering between low B to high C grade range.

Just out of interest, I thought apply this same scrutiny to BJ to see what we've really lost. Here goes:

'12 avg: BJ
DISPOSALS:___24.3___
MARKS:_______6_____
TACKLES:______3_____
GOALS:_______0.6____
DREAMTEAM:___97.3___

TOTAL:________131.2_______


Prognosis:
-Make no mistake about it, we're going to miss him. He was our best A-grader.

We're going to need not just one, but a small crop of talented youngsters coming through to fill that particular breach. It can be done. If we get a decent chunk of improvement from all of Sipposs, Stanley, Simpkin, Saad, Ross/Newnes/Ledger, and Milera and the old core has a good year with injuries, we're back in front. And if Hickey, Lee & TDL can have a significant impact on top of this...well, anything's possible.

EDIT
(I applied the above formula to last years brownlow medalist Jobe Watson, him being adjudged the best A-grader in the league, to give the top end of the A-B-C-D grade scale - his total score was 152)

Why would you try and get any meaningful statistic from adding kicks, marks, tackles and goals to dream team points when dream team points are based on kicks marks tackles and goals.

[bergholt]

What about Saad?

Dunno, doesn't strike me as a mid any more than Milne ever did, but happy to be proved wrong.

I bet that most of these will be GOP and that our next super star doesn't come from this lot.

I suspect you may be right, but that means we're not going to be close to a flag for a long time.

[Teflon]

"How good they were at the same age" is irrelevant - remember Dal, Lenny and co. were given heavy midfield responsibility from the get-go, whilst Jack and Armo have been forced to undergo a bastards entry & growth into the team... In all practical reality, they've both only played two seasons of real football in the midfield.


As of now, the OP puts Jack and Armo in the same group as Monty (B Grade). I wondered about that, so I checked the 2012 stats to see if this claim stands up to the cold hard light of scientific investigation, or whether it pales away into so much insignificance under the blow-torch of truth that is statistical evidence... (our whole society, the entire structure and paradigm of Western culture, is built on the premise that the way to understand the truth of the world around us is to look at the scientific evidence, which is revealed to us first & foremost through numbers, mathematics and statistics, and then only a distant 2nd by observations made through use of the shady and deceptive 5 senses, which so easily lend themselves to manipulation by an individuals conscious or unconscious wants and desires, especially in a game like football.)
Are Jack & Armo as good as Monty? Right now, that is? Here is what science, the harbinger of truth and foundation of modern civilization, has to say about the matter:


'12 averages: DISPOSALS MARKS TACKLES GOALS DREAMTEAM
MONTY:______23.5______4.5____4.7_____0.6____96.7___
ARMO:_______20.3_______4.8____4.7_____0.8____89.2___
JACK:________20.2_______3.7_____4______0.8____84.2___
__________TOTAL_____
MONTY:____130____
ARMO:_____119.8__
JACK:______112.9__

Now compare this with our two genuine A-Graders (as alleged by OP) in Lenny and Dal:
'12 averages: DISPOSALS MARKS TACKLES GOALS DREAMTEAM
LENNY:______24.5______3.2_____5.9____0.3_____95.1___
DAL:________23.3______2.8_____4.6____0.8_____91.5___

TOTALS:
MONTY: 130
LENNY: 129
DAL: 123
ARMO: 119.8
JACK: 112.9

Prognosis:
-Leigh Montagna is a very under-rated player. Well, not by the club - he did finish 2nd in the B&F. But by the OP, yes.
-As it stands now, we have 2 A-graders; Monty & Lenny. Dal stands slightly above Armo in the realm of a solid B-grader (though if Armo takes as big a step forward this year as he did last, he'll move into A-grade territory). Jack is hovering between low B to high C grade range.

Just out of interest, I thought apply this same scrutiny to BJ to see what we've really lost. Here goes:

'12 avg: BJ
DISPOSALS:___24.3___
MARKS:_______6_____
TACKLES:______3_____
GOALS:_______0.6____
DREAMTEAM:___97.3___

TOTAL:________131.2_______


Prognosis:
-Make no mistake about it, we're going to miss him. He was our best A-grader.

We're going to need not just one, but a small crop of talented youngsters coming through to fill that particular breach. It can be done. If we get a decent chunk of improvement from all of Sipposs, Stanley, Simpkin, Saad, Ross/Newnes/Ledger, and Milera and the old core has a good year with injuries, we're back in front. And if Hickey, Lee & TDL can have a significant impact on top of this...well, anything's possible.

EDIT
(I applied the above formula to last years brownlow medalist Jobe Watson, him being adjudged the best A-grader in the league, to give the top end of the A-B-C-D grade scale - his total score was 152)

Great analysis - where in the stats does it mention that Dal Santo due to superior damaging disposal is tagged weekly while Montagna isn't?

[SaintPav]

What about Saad?

Dunno, doesn't strike me as a mid any more than Milne ever did, but happy to be proved wrong.

Yes, probably not. Thought you meant next star.

[hungry for a premiership]

"How good they were at the same age" is irrelevant - remember Dal, Lenny and co. were given heavy midfield responsibility from the get-go, whilst Jack and Armo have been forced to undergo a bastards entry & growth into the team... In all practical reality, they've both only played two seasons of real football in the midfield.


As of now, the OP puts Jack and Armo in the same group as Monty (B Grade). I wondered about that, so I checked the 2012 stats to see if this claim stands up to the cold hard light of scientific investigation, or whether it pales away into so much insignificance under the blow-torch of truth that is statistical evidence... (our whole society, the entire structure and paradigm of Western culture, is built on the premise that the way to understand the truth of the world around us is to look at the scientific evidence, which is revealed to us first & foremost through numbers, mathematics and statistics, and then only a distant 2nd by observations made through use of the shady and deceptive 5 senses, which so easily lend themselves to manipulation by an individuals conscious or unconscious wants and desires, especially in a game like football.)
Are Jack & Armo as good as Monty? Right now, that is? Here is what science, the harbinger of truth and foundation of modern civilization, has to say about the matter:


'12 averages: DISPOSALS MARKS TACKLES GOALS DREAMTEAM
MONTY:______23.5______4.5____4.7_____0.6____96.7___
ARMO:_______20.3_______4.8____4.7_____0.8____89.2___
JACK:________20.2_______3.7_____4______0.8____84.2___
__________TOTAL_____
MONTY:____130____
ARMO:_____119.8__
JACK:______112.9__

Now compare this with our two genuine A-Graders (as alleged by OP) in Lenny and Dal:
'12 averages: DISPOSALS MARKS TACKLES GOALS DREAMTEAM
LENNY:______24.5______3.2_____5.9____0.3_____95.1___
DAL:________23.3______2.8_____4.6____0.8_____91.5___

TOTALS:
MONTY: 130
LENNY: 129
DAL: 123
ARMO: 119.8
JACK: 112.9

Prognosis:
-Leigh Montagna is a very under-rated player. Well, not by the club - he did finish 2nd in the B&F. But by the OP, yes.
-As it stands now, we have 2 A-graders; Monty & Lenny. Dal stands slightly above Armo in the realm of a solid B-grader (though if Armo takes as big a step forward this year as he did last, he'll move into A-grade territory). Jack is hovering between low B to high C grade range.

Just out of interest, I thought apply this same scrutiny to BJ to see what we've really lost. Here goes:

'12 avg: BJ
DISPOSALS:___24.3___
MARKS:_______6_____
TACKLES:______3_____
GOALS:_______0.6____
DREAMTEAM:___97.3___

TOTAL:________131.2_______


Prognosis:
-Make no mistake about it, we're going to miss him. He was our best A-grader.

We're going to need not just one, but a small crop of talented youngsters coming through to fill that particular breach. It can be done. If we get a decent chunk of improvement from all of Sipposs, Stanley, Simpkin, Saad, Ross/Newnes/Ledger, and Milera and the old core has a good year with injuries, we're back in front. And if Hickey, Lee & TDL can have a significant impact on top of this...well, anything's possible.

EDIT
(I applied the above formula to last years brownlow medalist Jobe Watson, him being adjudged the best A-grader in the league, to give the top end of the A-B-C-D grade scale - his total score was 152)

Great analysis - where in the stats does it mention that Dal Santo due to superior damaging disposal is tagged weekly while Montagna isn't?

Are you absolutely sure that Dal has superior damaging disposal to Monty? I mean, yes, he looks a better kick, but have you actually checked their kicking efficiency percentages to confirm this?

But I do take your point: Stats clearly dont tell us everything. Still, though, I maintain that they tell us about 90% of the story. It's not an exact science, by any stretch, but football is becoming more and more of a science nevertheless, a numbers game, and the simple fact is, that (i'd wager) roughly 90% of the time, the player with more kicks, marks, tackles and goals will have a bigger influence over a game, the side with more kicks, marks, tackles and goals will win the match, and the team with the most kicks, marks, tackles and goals all year will win the flag. The only proviso to that is that an AFL grand final is a strange beast, and the underdog going into a GF is somehow, in some way, kind of wont to defeat the best-side-all-year, ie. the team with the most stats. But I think you'll find that almost every season, the team with the most stats will make the GF. Last year it was Hawthorn. The year before, Collingwood. The year before, Collingwood again. The year before that, it was us. '08 was Geelong, etc..... These teams had players who collectively had more stats then any other team, therefore they were the best team and the best players....
They dont tell you everything, but they tell you almost everything...

[hungry for a premiership]

"How good they were at the same age" is irrelevant - remember Dal, Lenny and co. were given heavy midfield responsibility from the get-go, whilst Jack and Armo have been forced to undergo a bastards entry & growth into the team... In all practical reality, they've both only played two seasons of real football in the midfield.


As of now, the OP puts Jack and Armo in the same group as Monty (B Grade). I wondered about that, so I checked the 2012 stats to see if this claim stands up to the cold hard light of scientific investigation, or whether it pales away into so much insignificance under the blow-torch of truth that is statistical evidence... (our whole society, the entire structure and paradigm of Western culture, is built on the premise that the way to understand the truth of the world around us is to look at the scientific evidence, which is revealed to us first & foremost through numbers, mathematics and statistics, and then only a distant 2nd by observations made through use of the shady and deceptive 5 senses, which so easily lend themselves to manipulation by an individuals conscious or unconscious wants and desires, especially in a game like football.)
Are Jack & Armo as good as Monty? Right now, that is? Here is what science, the harbinger of truth and foundation of modern civilization, has to say about the matter:


'12 averages: DISPOSALS MARKS TACKLES GOALS DREAMTEAM
MONTY:______23.5______4.5____4.7_____0.6____96.7___
ARMO:_______20.3_______4.8____4.7_____0.8____89.2___
JACK:________20.2_______3.7_____4______0.8____84.2___
__________TOTAL_____
MONTY:____130____
ARMO:_____119.8__
JACK:______112.9__

Now compare this with our two genuine A-Graders (as alleged by OP) in Lenny and Dal:
'12 averages: DISPOSALS MARKS TACKLES GOALS DREAMTEAM
LENNY:______24.5______3.2_____5.9____0.3_____95.1___
DAL:________23.3______2.8_____4.6____0.8_____91.5___

TOTALS:
MONTY: 130
LENNY: 129
DAL: 123
ARMO: 119.8
JACK: 112.9

Prognosis:
-Leigh Montagna is a very under-rated player. Well, not by the club - he did finish 2nd in the B&F. But by the OP, yes.
-As it stands now, we have 2 A-graders; Monty & Lenny. Dal stands slightly above Armo in the realm of a solid B-grader (though if Armo takes as big a step forward this year as he did last, he'll move into A-grade territory). Jack is hovering between low B to high C grade range.

Just out of interest, I thought apply this same scrutiny to BJ to see what we've really lost. Here goes:

'12 avg: BJ
DISPOSALS:___24.3___
MARKS:_______6_____
TACKLES:______3_____
GOALS:_______0.6____
DREAMTEAM:___97.3___

TOTAL:________131.2_______


Prognosis:
-Make no mistake about it, we're going to miss him. He was our best A-grader.

We're going to need not just one, but a small crop of talented youngsters coming through to fill that particular breach. It can be done. If we get a decent chunk of improvement from all of Sipposs, Stanley, Simpkin, Saad, Ross/Newnes/Ledger, and Milera and the old core has a good year with injuries, we're back in front. And if Hickey, Lee & TDL can have a significant impact on top of this...well, anything's possible.

EDIT
(I applied the above formula to last years brownlow medalist Jobe Watson, him being adjudged the best A-grader in the league, to give the top end of the A-B-C-D grade scale - his total score was 152)

Why would you try and get any meaningful statistic from adding kicks, marks, tackles and goals to dream team points when dream team points are based on kicks marks tackles and goals.

Dreamteam points factor in things like effective vs non-effective disposals, spoils/smothers/1 percenters, and more, which is why I included them with the raw stats...