Window bolted shut?

[Richter]

the way i see it .. in the first 9 rounds :
Round 1 GC - big win
Round 2 Richmond - 50/50
Round 3 GWS - Big win
Round 4 Essendon - 60/40 in essendons favor
Round 5 Swans - in NZ so prob brings it in to 60/40 swans way
Round 6 Collingwood - coming off the NZ game 70/30 collingwoods way
round 7 Carlton - 50/50
round 8 Crows - in south australia 70/30 crows way
round 9 WB - big win

realistically we could have 3 wins by the end of round 9 worst case best i can see us doing is 5 wins being optimistic .. but i would not be shocked if we go on a five game losing run from round 4 to the lead up of round 9
again this year in my opinion is about rebuilding so getting games into the hopefully next generations stars and getting them match hardened is going to be more important than the actual results

A good discussion Trav. I think you may overrate some of our opponents.

I think that Carlton will continue to have a problem in not having any consistent forward Tall marking targets - Waite is way too injury prone and now getting on a bit. Also they remain too Judd reliant and whilst Murphy is an elite player, Gibbs shows little sign of being able to step up.

Yes, I agree that Richmond could be bolters - they are a reasonable bet to make the top 4 from outside the 8 next year... nevertheless they have no proven ability to even make the top 8 and remained fragile in 2012... will 2013 really prove to be the year they prove their potential? Dustin Martin (off-field) is a powder-keg, and they are very Cotchin-reliant so if anything were to happen to him they'd be in trouble.

The Bombers - who knows, but they were atrocious in the second half of the year. if they don't turn that form around next year they could even be a chance to be in the bottom 4. Giving them 60/40 odds to beat us at this stage is way off. I'd put that the other way round.

Collingwood fell away last year. I just wonder where some of their players are at from a psychological stand-point (eg Swan). I expected more of them last year (a GF spot at least) and ultimately they were pretty disappointing. Having said that they retain a core of having a number of super young-ish mids and I agree with your rating of 70/30 their way in our game against them.

The Crows I think will come back down to earth this year. They had a ridiculously easy draw last year - I know it is similarly appetising this year, but on the back of that they also won 3 games by less than a kick with all of their losses by more than that. In my view their true position this year would have been 6-8 rather than the 2nd on the ladder that they ended up in.

Adding all of that up I see 5 wins as par with 3 as worst case and 7 as best case.

[Richter]

- there is a much thinner spread of the elite players throughout the competition now than ever before due to the introduction of the 2 new teams
- in 2010 (and arguably in 2009) St Kilda had the better 'stars' but still lost both GFs. IMO our 'top 5' were better than either Geelong's or Collingwood's. The issue was that both their 'next 17' were much better than ours.

Fair points, though I don't reckon we had better stars in 09 - Geelong had a record number of AAs (IIRC) and two Brownlow Medallists. In 2010 you're probably right, Swan and Pendlebury, then Cloke and Jolly but a very strong supporting cast. No doubt their next 17 were better than ours, especially their bottom eight or so.

These two points combine to support the argument that the AFL competition relies even more than ever on a team first mentality.

Yeah, agreed, and I do very much agree with your original point, which was that the mental/motivational factors are more important than ever. Physical factors are becoming less of a differentiator with training becoming more sophisticated across the board, so a 5% mental edge is huge.

I think that we are probably mostly speaking fervently agreeing!

One other point that I would make is that it is not that we are in need of new midfield stars per se but rather a 'star midfield unit'. That's what Malthouse managed to do at Collingwood which was so impressive, as to some extent did Lyon between 2008 and 2009 (though it was more that Lyon turned star individuals into a star team). The difference that this point makes is that it brings much more in to focus the coaching and development abilities of the contending clubs. I may be biased but it really looks like we have a terrific 'development coach' in Watters and the football department more generally who are precisely matched to where we are as a club. It comes as little surprise that Watters has had past jobs in youth development and under Malthouse who led such an effective speedy regeneration at the pies.

[samuraisaint]

Good comment re:Watters. Development seems to be his bete noir. A lot of the young players showed a bit last year. Losing Cripps irked me a bit.

[st_Trav_ofWA]

the thing with richmond is that they get wobbly against the teams that should be easy to beat eg gold coast but when they come up against a solid team they lift eg the hawthorn match ... we have had the wood over the tiges for a long time but i reckon its due to come to an end ...

with Essendon everyone talks up how pathetic they were in the second half of last year and rightfull so but lets not forget how they started the year last season they won 8 of the first 9 games with the first loss by 1 point on Anzac day we have got them round 4 so its fair to say we should be facing a similar essendon of the start of 2012 then the one we met at the end of 2012 given they are also strenghtend by Godard and we are weakend by goddard i would have them ahead of us ...

Carlton will turn up to play make no doubt of it list wise we are prob even with them they are very Judd reliant as we are very Lenny reliant i wouldnt be confidently chalking it up as a win

the Pies fell away last year but so did we albeit further so im not sure how you can say that they will fall further again this year but think we will make gains ? the pies fall still got them into the top four only behind the most dominant team of the year in Hawthorn , the premiers and the team you say got the easiest draw in history

the Crows may have got the easyier draw last year but in the finals there are no easy draws and they were very close to making the g/f , over the off season they have had some bad stuff happen but not anything to derail a club , given this game is also in South Australia a place where we have performed not so well at i again wouldnt be putting money on us to take the points in that game

[Richter]

If we're talking $$ then at the odds you're offering I'd take us vs Essendon and the Crows. Nevertheless, I do take your point about the Bombers having been flying at the start of last year, when the Weapon was looking like a genius... re the Crows in finals... they were shocking week 1, and struggled week 2 until fatigue caught up with a leggy Fremantle (coming off a 6 day break and having travelled back from Melbourne, and then taking on another trip East to Adelaide)... though admittedly they did perform admirably against the Hawks in the prelim...

[bergholt]

Good comment re:Watters. Development seems to be his bete noir. A lot of the young players showed a bit last year. Losing Cripps irked me a bit.

I don't think bete noire means what you think it means.

[Con Gorozidis]

Good comment re:Watters. Development seems to be his bete noir. A lot of the young players showed a bit last year. Losing Cripps irked me a bit.

I don't think bete noire means what you think it means.

Lyons attitude towards development remains my bete noir!

[plugger66]

Good comment re:Watters. Development seems to be his bete noir. A lot of the young players showed a bit last year. Losing Cripps irked me a bit.

I don't think bete noire means what you think it means.

Maybe he is a Brian ferry fan.

[Kickit]

Now have a look at Collingwood's fixture and tell me how they will be looking by mid year.

If it's relevant how about you do that leg work and add to the discussion rather than making what otherwise looks like a random comment?

I have, and I find it very difficult to believe Collingwood and some of the others will have a good year.
There is actually a system to the fixture this year.
Those in the 8 last season play each other more than others. And those outside the 8 play each other more than those in the 8.
I cannot belive that its remotely feasible that the Saints will end up a 15th or so where some are predicting.

[Dave McNamara]

Good comment re:Watters. Development seems to be his bete noir. A lot of the young players showed a bit last year. Losing Cripps irked me a bit.

I don't think bete noire means what you think it means.

Correct Bergs', that was a typo', but Samurai is on the money. He meant Vince Noir, who is one cool, cutting edge hipster...

Mr Susan: If you choose wrongly you will replace me here in the mirror world for all eternity with nothing but your own reflection for company...
Vince Noir: Sounds alright to me.
Mr Susan: What? Staring at your own reflection forever?
Vince Noir: Sounds great.

Vince Noir: It's the most up-to-date magazine around. It's so cutting edge it goes out of date every three hours. Can't get it in shops. It's delivered by ninjas.

At Cuddles' request, Vince (and team) are already secretly on the job, fast-tracking the development of our latest international rookie. A stroke of genius that won't break the bank as he's willing to play for peanuts. This is the young bloke who'll be filling the hole at fullback for us from 2014.

Just be patient and have faith Saintsationalists..., the pieces of the jigsaw are all falling into place.

[SainterK]

The only time this is relevant is if we lost the Jeldwen sponsorship...

[bigcarl]

A workmate of mine, Melbourne fan, says we could finish bottom four as we have too many old players and haven't recruited well (he says).

I pointed out that, yes, we have the oldest list in the competition. Followed directly by Sydney (who won it last season), Collingwood and Hawthorn (who easily could have won it).

So why is it we are considered too old and they are not?

I still think that if we start well anything is possible. But I stress, we need to start well.

[saintspremiers]

A workmate of mine, Melbourne fan, says we could finish bottom four as we have too many old players and haven't recruited well (he says).

I pointed out that, yes, we have the oldest list in the competition. Followed directly by Sydney (who won it last season), Collingwood and Hawthorn (who easily could have won it).

So why is it we are considered too old and they are not?

I still think that if we start well anything is possible. But I stress, we need to start well.

Surely you are not a deluded Premeirship dreamer? We have Buckley's chance of winning the flag this year.

[bobmurray]

Good comment re:Watters. Development seems to be his bete noir. A lot of the young players showed a bit last year. Losing Cripps irked me a bit.

I don't think bete noire means what you think it means.

Bete´ noire´
1. Something especially hated or dreaded; a bugbear.

[bigcarl]

Surely you are not a deluded Premeirship dreamer? We have Buckley's chance of winning the flag this year.

We are doomed, the sky is falling in. You ought to change your nick to saintspooners to reflect your positive outlook.

I'd be disappointed if the club wasn't aiming at least for a top 4 finish.

[SaintPav]

Surely you are not a deluded Premeirship dreamer? We have Buckley's chance of winning the flag this year.

We are doomed, the sky is falling in. You ought to change your nick to saintspooners to reflect your positive outlook.

I'd be disappointed if the club wasn't aiming at least for a top 4 finish.

Trading BJ is strong evidence that they are not aiming for a top four finish.

[Dis Believer]

Surely you are not a deluded Premeirship dreamer? We have Buckley's chance of winning the flag this year.

We are doomed, the sky is falling in. You ought to change your nick to saintspooners to reflect your positive outlook.

I'd be disappointed if the club wasn't aiming at least for a top 4 finish.

Trading BJ is strong evidence that they are not aiming for a top four finish.

They didn't trade BJ.........

He left as a free agent after we refused to sell the farm to meet his contract demands.........

[Witeout23]

Who's BJ?

[White Winmar]

Some greedy, no good turncoat, apparently.

[bigcarl]

Trading BJ is strong evidence that they are not aiming for a top four finish.

As I recall it we made him a good offer (as much as we could afford) but were trumped by a better one from Essendon. I wouldn't read that as intent to not aim high.

[samuraisaint]

Good comment re:Watters. Development seems to be his bete noir. A lot of the young players showed a bit last year. Losing Cripps irked me a bit.

I don't think bete noire means what you think it means.

Bete´ noire´
1. Something especially hated or dreaded; a bugbear.

Damn! That's the last time I use russian to make a point

[SaintPav]

They didn't trade BJ.........

He left as a free agent after we refused to sell the farm to meet his contract demands.........

If you say so.

[SaintPav]

Damn! That's the last time I use russian to make a point

Being corrected by someone like Bob Murray. Yikes.

You might mean raison d'être?

[samuraisaint]

Damn! That's the last time I use russian to make a point

Being corrected by someone like Bob Murray. Yikes.

You might mean raison d'être?

はい、かんぺっきだよ。

[desertsaint]

No such thing as a premiership window, and the best team is not always the premier, hence we have as good a chance as anyone else next year. Go Sainters.

This.
Add the fact that we were very close to finals last year - in Watters' first - think we finished with a percentage easily in the top eight as well as one of the best scoring records. Reverse all the two goal and under results for all teams last year and we finish top four - we were that close!
And we played two interstate games in a row twice! Add nine 6 day breaks, and the odds were stacked against us.
I reckon we're a decent shot and expect us to play finals!