Window bolted shut?

[SaintPav]

Yep we will win the Premiership because we have Lenny, the player will lift for him.

which player?

[spert]

It's a pretty erratic competition, and we are a good chance for the eight this season. Collingwood thought they would go on to a golden era after 2010 and win the next few premierships, buy there's always another team planning your downfall.

[clarky449]

Yep we will win the Premiership because we have Lenny, the player will lift for him.

which player?

Hush Child.

[Wrote for Luck]

Lenny will lift for Lenny!

[prwilkinson]

Haven't read any of the thread so not sure if anyone else has posted this but lets be honest, How many people would have tipped Sydney to win the premiership in 2012? Teams and players gel at different times... you never really know who is going to come on or fall away in any given year. Look at St.Kilda in '97... bottom of the ladder after 5 rounds. Anyone know the odds of the Saints making the Grand Final at that stage of '97?

The whole 5 year plan 'premiership window' is complete rubbish to me. The grand '5 year plan' only does one thing and that's keep the coaches in a job for a period of time.... why do you think they all say it???

[Kickit]

Haven't read any of the thread so not sure if anyone else has posted this but lets be honest, How many people would have tipped Sydney to win the premiership in 2012? Teams and players gel at different times... you never really know who is going to come on or fall away in any given year. Look at St.Kilda in '97... bottom of the ladder after 5 rounds. Anyone know the odds of the Saints making the Grand Final at that stage of '97?

The whole 5 year plan 'premiership window' is complete rubbish to me. The grand '5 year plan' only does one thing and that's keep the coaches in a job for a period of time.... why do you think they all say it???

Its amazing how many people believe the bottom out and win a premiership crap.
Wooden spooners:
2000 StKilda, No premiership ( close but not in a five year window ).
2001 Fremantle, No premiership.
2002 Carlton, No premiership ( but complicated ).
2003 Bulldogs. No premiership.
2004 Richmond, No permiership.
2005 Carlton , Still No premiership
2006 Carlton , STILL no premiership.
2007 Richmond, No premiership
2008 Melbourne , No premiership
2009 Melbourne, Nope
2010 West Coast, Possible but not yet.

Based on the majority of the above teams I'd say that the bottoming out strategy is remarkably easy to implement but can be really really painful when it fails.

[SaintPav]

Haven't read any of the thread so not sure if anyone else has posted this but lets be honest, How many people would have tipped Sydney to win the premiership in 2012? Teams and players gel at different times... you never really know who is going to come on or fall away in any given year. Look at St.Kilda in '97... bottom of the ladder after 5 rounds. Anyone know the odds of the Saints making the Grand Final at that stage of '97?

The whole 5 year plan 'premiership window' is complete rubbish to me. The grand '5 year plan' only does one thing and that's keep the coaches in a job for a period of time.... why do you think they all say it???

Its amazing how many people believe the bottom out and win a premiership crap.
Wooden spooners:
2000 StKilda, No premiership ( close but not in a five year window ).
2001 Fremantle, No premiership.
2002 Carlton, No premiership ( but complicated ).
2003 Bulldogs. No premiership.
2004 Richmond, No permiership.
2005 Carlton , Still No premiership
2006 Carlton , STILL no premiership.
2007 Richmond, No premiership
2008 Melbourne , No premiership
2009 Melbourne, Nope
2010 West Coast, Possible but not yet.

Based on the majority of the above teams I'd say that the bottoming out strategy is remarkably easy to implement but can be really really painful when it fails.

you don't have to finish dead last to bottom out. Pies and Hawks are examples of teams that finished towards the bottom of the ladder and did well out of drafting and went on to win flags.

[saintspremiers]

I'll repeat for the millionth time about Sydney.

THEY ARE GIFTED ABOUT AN EXTRA $1M IN THEIR SALARY CAP BY THE AFL!

Now can we stop comparing ourselves to an AFL lovechild team please? it's not apples with apples!

[bergholt]

Based on the majority of the above teams I'd say that the bottoming out strategy is remarkably easy to implement but can be really really painful when it fails.

I think you've shown that finishing bottom doesn't work, but most flag teams were well down the ladder a couple of years earlier:

2012 Sydney, 12th three years earlier
- never really went down far

2010 Collingwood, 15th five years earlier, 13th six years earlier
- got Thomas, Pendlebury, Reid, Brown

2008 Hawthorn, 14th three years earlier, 15th four years earlier
- got Roughead, Franklin, Lewis, Birchall

2007 Geelong, 10th one year earlier, 12th four years earlier
- got lucky with Selwood, got Ottens, never really bottomed out

2006 West Coast, 14th five years earlier, 13th six years earlier
- got Judd, Kerr, Seaby

2005 Sydney, 11th three years earlier
- got McVeigh, Davis

2004 Port Adelaide, 14th four years earlier
- got Wakelin, S Burgoyne, K Cornes

2001 Brisbane, 16th three years earlier
- got Headland

2000 Essendon, 14th three years earlier
- got Bolton, Solomon

Most of those teams seriously benefited from being down the bottom, especially Collingwood and Hawthorn most recently. It's not a guarantee, because you still have to use the picks well, but it's much easier to use pick four well than pick eighteen.

[Kickit]

Based on the majority of the above teams I'd say that the bottoming out strategy is remarkably easy to implement but can be really really painful when it fails.

I think you've shown that finishing bottom doesn't work, but most flag teams were well down the ladder a couple of years earlier:

2012 Sydney, 12th three years earlier
- never really went down far

2010 Collingwood, 15th five years earlier, 13th six years earlier
- got Thomas, Pendlebury, Reid, Brown

2008 Hawthorn, 14th three years earlier, 15th four years earlier
- got Roughead, Franklin, Lewis, Birchall

2007 Geelong, 10th one year earlier, 12th four years earlier
- got lucky with Selwood, got Ottens, never really bottomed out

2006 West Coast, 14th five years earlier, 13th six years earlier
- got Judd, Kerr, Seaby

2005 Sydney, 11th three years earlier
- got McVeigh, Davis

2004 Port Adelaide, 14th four years earlier
- got Wakelin, S Burgoyne, K Cornes

2001 Brisbane, 16th three years earlier
- got Headland

2000 Essendon, 14th three years earlier
- got Bolton, Solomon

Most of those teams seriously benefited from being down the bottom, especially Collingwood and Hawthorn most recently. It's not a guarantee, because you still have to use the picks well, but it's much easier to use pick four well than pick eighteen.

Only first round picks are relevant.
StKilda could have got Birchall for example ( in fact the Hawks pretty much stuffed up their draft that year ).

[AnythingsPossibleSaints]

Here is an interesting article on Sydney's recruiting/rebuilding strategy: ""When I joined Sydney at the end of 2006, it was very much clear from the board through (chief executive) Andrew Ireland and the coaches that no one ever felt you needed to bottom out to be successful in this competition," Beatson said.

"They reckon it's a cop-out, so they have looked to alternative ways to regenerate the list."

http://www.heraldsun.com.au/afl/teams/f ... 6482139502

I'll repeat for the millionth time about Sydney.

THEY ARE GIFTED ABOUT AN EXTRA $1M IN THEIR SALARY CAP BY THE AFL!

Now can we stop comparing ourselves to an AFL lovechild team please? it's not apples with apples!

Why is it that Sydney had enough money in their salary cap this year to pay Kurt Tippett $1million per season or whatever it is over the next couple of years then? I think it is because they weren't paying anywhere near their allotted allowance. Apparently they won last year's premiership with a huge amount of cap space free, so while they had that allowance, it would appear they haven't been using it and as such won the premiership by paying approximately the same amount as any of the other clubs that were paying the full amount of their cap, despite the fact that the cost of living in Sydney is genuinely more expensive than in say Melbourne or Adelaide or Brisbane, making it a legitimate factor. I've heard suggestions that Sydney have been planning for free agency to come for a few years now and as such have been working to keep a lot of cap space free for when it arrived at the end of last season and were paying well under their cap in 2012.

If they win next year's premiership as a result of paying that extra million for Tippett, then you could have a case to say that they won that illigitimately, or whatever, but I'm not sure it played much part if at all in them winning the last one.

[Dis Believer]

I think everyone is ovelooking a major change in the landscape as part of their thinking - free agency. The pattern of teams emeging with premierships 4 to 5 years after being near the bottom and recruiting well seemed to get stronger as the "art" of recruiting became more scientific (in the early picks). The heavily compromised drafts in recent times have meant that teams have become more creative and broader in their thinking to uncover untapped talent outside the mainstream sources. The ones that adapt best to make free agency work for them will be the ones that are able to load up for a tilt at a flag more regularly. We have massive cap space opening up, a clear strategy in place and the effect of losing top liners will not be pronounced as it used to be prior to free agency if we work it well.

As an example, the loss of say, a Lenny Hayes, would be heavily offset it we were able to land say, a Scott Pendelbury. Now I am not saying we will go out and rip Pendelbury off the Filth, but we no longer need to get top 5 picks, recruit kids , develop them, and hope that they actually reach their potential (say a 3 to 4 year process on average). With the recently done trade deals by our current team we've filled some gaps, we have clearly got a strong policy on cap expenditure and wages, and I would expect us to be very savvy beneficiaries of free agency over the longer term. We already appear to have a direction in recruiting that dictates speed and footskills are a priority, and development is clearly a major focus. That to me means our regeneration of the team will be on a shorter cycle than we have seen in the past. I think we also seem to trying to have a more even spread of talent than we have had in the past, and that means you are less likely to see the team slide on the dparture of even two or three players.

I think we are evolving past the issue of a "premiership window".

[spert]

Sydney's current success totally hinges on Goodes being on the field and playing 10 minute bursts of inspirational footy, once he is gone, then Sydney will slip back to the pack.

[bergholt]

Sydney's current success totally hinges on Goodes being on the field and playing 10 minute bursts of inspirational footy, once he is gone, then Sydney will slip back to the pack.

...as ours relied on Riewoldt, Hayes and Goddard doing the same. Who's our next Goodes?

[samuraisaint]

Haven't read any of the thread so not sure if anyone else has posted this but lets be honest, How many people would have tipped Sydney to win the premiership in 2012? Teams and players gel at different times... you never really know who is going to come on or fall away in any given year. Look at St.Kilda in '97... bottom of the ladder after 5 rounds. Anyone know the odds of the Saints making the Grand Final at that stage of '97?

The whole 5 year plan 'premiership window' is complete rubbish to me. The grand '5 year plan' only does one thing and that's keep the coaches in a job for a period of time.... why do you think they all say it???

And just as remarkable as playing off in the Grannie is the fact that we actually finished ON TOP OF THE LADDER that year!!!! Which just goes to show that momentum is the key to success, just as teams like Hawthorn expect to win flags and consistently compete in the top 4, St Kilda now can start to consolidate their status as a good team by getting back into finals this year hopefully if we can replicate our form from last year, 12 wins plus % of 120 should sneak us in. Success is built on self belief.

[SainterK]

[saint66au]

I'll repeat for the millionth time about Sydney.

THEY ARE GIFTED ABOUT AN EXTRA $1M IN THEIR SALARY CAP BY THE AFL!

Now can we stop comparing ourselves to an AFL lovechild team please? it's not apples with apples!

No...its not for the millionth time..its the first time. Last time you said they were cheats...which is so far away from being gifted the money its not funny.

[Richter]

Well you'd think it's going to be Lenny's last crack at it and, with him being something of a spiritual leader, no doubt there's plenty of motivation. He's never been one to say "can't".

I attach great importance to a good start to the season. Set the standard early and anything can happen. Momentum is crucial.

Spot on bigcarl.

Our group will know there is every chance that it is the last year they'll have together and if that doesn't motivate them to go all-in then probably nothing will.

My heart tells me that we will slide this year, but I have had a look at the fixture for the first couple of months and feel a little more optimistic.

Checking out the first 9 rounds and factoring in the 2012 season's form....

- We have 3 games against teams we had a 2-0 record last year (Gold Coast, Carlton, Bulldogs)
- We have 2 games against teams we had a 1-0 record last year (Essendon, GWS)

- We have 1 games against a team we had a 1-1 record last year (Swans)

- We have 3 games against teams we lost to by under 10 points (Richmond (8-point loss); Collingwood (6-point loss); Adelaide (4-point loss)) - we were ahead at some point in the final quarter against all of those teams.

- We have no games against teams who beat us comfortably in 2012 (i.e. by 2 goals or more) during the first part of season 2013.

-------------------

Hence on last year's form we have a realistic chance in every single game for the first 2 months of the season. We could conceivably be 6-3 or better by the start of June and on a roll.

[Richter]

On the face of it, it seems fanciful to suggest that 'the team could win it for Lenny' or that 'Lenny could inspire the team'... because after all, if it were that easy then Lenny would simply stand up at the beginning of each quarter and say 'win it for me lads' and then the boys would go out and smash the opposition. And yet it is undeniable that conscious and unconscious psychological factors DO play a part in football (and sport in general). Can anyone deny the fact that we made the 2010 grand final on the back of the disappointment that the boys felt in failing in 2009? Or that the slide in 2011 was largely due to the feeling that we had shot our bolt in 2009/10... or that Geelong won in 2011 due to the confidence of having previously climbed the summit in 2007/09?

The point about the 'mental' aspect of football is that it is both incredibly important and in analytical terms largely objectively unmeasurable (at least without a retrospectoscope)... in advance all we can say is that (in general) momentum counts and that success breeds success... hance I agree with the posters who say that a good start to the season is extremely important.

[bergholt]

Can anyone deny the fact that we made the 2010 grand final on the back of the disappointment that the boys felt in failing in 2009?

Not really. But also that we came within a bee's dick of winning it thanks to superhuman performances from two guys - Hayes and Goddard. One's gone, one's almost gone.

You need true stars to win flags, so we desperately need to find our next few.

[Kickit]

Well you'd think it's going to be Lenny's last crack at it and, with him being something of a spiritual leader, no doubt there's plenty of motivation. He's never been one to say "can't".

I attach great importance to a good start to the season. Set the standard early and anything can happen. Momentum is crucial.

Spot on bigcarl.

Our group will know there is every chance that it is the last year they'll have together and if that doesn't motivate them to go all-in then probably nothing will.

My heart tells me that we will slide this year, but I have had a look at the fixture for the first couple of months and feel a little more optimistic.

Checking out the first 9 rounds and factoring in the 2012 season's form....

- We have 3 games against teams we had a 2-0 record last year (Gold Coast, Carlton, Bulldogs)
- We have 2 games against teams we had a 1-0 record last year (Essendon, GWS)

- We have 1 games against a team we had a 1-1 record last year (Swans)

- We have 3 games against teams we lost to by under 10 points (Richmond (8-point loss); Collingwood (6-point loss); Adelaide (4-point loss)) - we were ahead at some point in the final quarter against all of those teams.

- We have no games against teams who beat us comfortably in 2012 (i.e. by 2 goals or more) during the first part of season 2013.

-------------------

Hence on last year's form we have a realistic chance in every single game for the first 2 months of the season. We could conceivably be 6-3 or better by the start of June and on a roll.

Now have a look at Collingwood's fixture and tell me how they will be looking by mid year.

[Richter]

Now have a look at Collingwood's fixture and tell me how they will be looking by mid year.

If it's relevant how about you do that leg work and add to the discussion rather than making what otherwise looks like a random comment?

[Richter]

Can anyone deny the fact that we made the 2010 grand final on the back of the disappointment that the boys felt in failing in 2009?

Not really. But also that we came within a bee's dick of winning it thanks to superhuman performances from two guys - Hayes and Goddard. One's gone, one's almost gone.

You need true stars to win flags, so we desperately need to find our next few.

Yes you do, but a couple of points...

- there is a much thinner spread of the elite players throughout the competition now than ever before due to the introduction of the 2 new teams
- in 2010 (and arguably in 2009) St Kilda had the better 'stars' but still lost both GFs. IMO our 'top 5' were better than either Geelong's or Collingwood's. The issue was that both their 'next 17' were much better than ours.

These two points combine to support the argument that the AFL competition relies even more than ever on a team first mentality. Look at the 2012 premiers... they had 4 All Australians in Ted Richards and Josh Kennedy (2012), Adam Goodes (2011, 2009, 2006, 2003), Ryan O'Keefe (2006). In 2013 St Kilda's starting will have 7 AAs (Dempster, Milne, Dal Santo, Montagna, Hayes, Riewoldt, Fisher).

Of course Sydney do have a number of midfield players coming through who are potential out-and-out stars like Jack, Jetta, Hannebury, Mumford... the challenge for our up and coming players like Armitage, Steven, McEvoy, Stanley, Milera, Dunnell is to make similar strides forward.

[st_Trav_ofWA]

a few points to highlight ....

My heart tells me that we will slide this year, but I have had a look at the fixture for the first couple of months and feel a little more optimistic.

Checking out the first 9 rounds and factoring in the 2012 season's form....

- We have 3 games against teams we had a 2-0 record last year (Gold Coast, Carlton, Bulldogs) - i would expect Carlton to have improved from the team we beat in the last game we played them in - We have 2 games against

teams we had a 1-0 record last year (Essendon, GWS) - the Essendon game was one of our best perfomances of the year and one of Essendons worst its fair to say the results of that game are not a real indicator of how close the return game in 2013 will be so at best its a 50/50 prospect beating them

- We have 1 games against a team we had a 1-1 record last year (Swans) - again the reigning premiers are always a tough assignment

- We have 3 games against teams we lost to by under 10 points (Richmond (8-point loss); Collingwood (6-point loss); Adelaide (4-point loss)) - we were ahead at some point in the final quarter against all of those teams. - its fair to say despite those narrow losses we are a fair way behind the likes of the crows and the Pies and Richmond are massive improvers i would not be shocked if we lost all of those

- We have no games against teams who beat us comfortably in 2012 (i.e. by 2 goals or more) during the first part of season 2013.

-------------------

Hence on last year's form we have a realistic chance in every single game for the first 2 months of the season. We could conceivably be 6-3 or better by the start of June and on a roll.

the way i see it .. in the first 9 rounds :
Round 1 GC - big win
Round 2 Richmond - 50/50
Round 3 GWS - Big win
Round 4 Essendon - 60/40 in essendons favor
Round 5 Swans - in NZ so prob brings it in to 60/40 swans way
Round 6 Collingwood - coming off the NZ game 70/30 collingwoods way
round 7 Carlton - 50/50
round 8 Crows - in south australia 70/30 crows way
round 9 WB - big win

realistically we could have 3 wins by the end of round 9 worst case best i can see us doing is 5 wins being optimistic .. but i would not be shocked if we go on a five game losing run from round 4 to the lead up of round 9
again this year in my opinion is about rebuilding so getting games into the hopefully next generations stars and getting them match hardened is going to be more important than the actual results

[bergholt]

- there is a much thinner spread of the elite players throughout the competition now than ever before due to the introduction of the 2 new teams
- in 2010 (and arguably in 2009) St Kilda had the better 'stars' but still lost both GFs. IMO our 'top 5' were better than either Geelong's or Collingwood's. The issue was that both their 'next 17' were much better than ours.

Fair points, though I don't reckon we had better stars in 09 - Geelong had a record number of AAs (IIRC) and two Brownlow Medallists. In 2010 you're probably right, Swan and Pendlebury, then Cloke and Jolly but a very strong supporting cast. No doubt their next 17 were better than ours, especially their bottom eight or so.

These two points combine to support the argument that the AFL competition relies even more than ever on a team first mentality.

Yeah, agreed, and I do very much agree with your original point, which was that the mental/motivational factors are more important than ever. Physical factors are becoming less of a differentiator with training becoming more sophisticated across the board, so a 5% mental edge is huge.