Window bolted shut?

[st.byron]

I unfortunately tend to agree with the fans from other clubs who think we had our chance, which we did - and damn it we came so close, and that for the current group of older players, the chance of a flag has passed. Would be totally wrapt to be wrong, but my expectation is a mid-table finish once again.

[tweedaletomanning]

In reality....

Our only real shot is if we happen to fluke a Steven Bradbury type of scenario.

Sad but true.

[kosifantutti]

No such thing as a premiership window, and the best team is not always the premier, hence we have as good a chance as anyone else next year. Go Sainters.

The Premiership window is the most overused concept in footy.

If you're good enough and you have some luck, you can win it.

[Cairnsman]

The optimist in me thinks that any hope of holding our ladder position from 2012 may heavily rely on Roo's knee, Lenny's heart and Milney's 2.24 goals per game.

The realist in me thinks bottom 4.

[bigcarl]

Yes he has plently of upside and could be anything but,

I want him to play a good game first. All this hype due to speed but needs to string 4 quarters first. Then several games.

Yep. He has great potential, but haven't seen him take a match by the scruff of the neck yet.

Let's hope 2013 is a breakout year in which Rhys becomes more than a bit player.

[bergholt]

The "window" being open for us in 2013 relies on four things:

Luck with injuries

Every team needs this every year. In 2012 we had relatively few injuries overall, but we lost McEvoy, Stanley and Fisher for periods we couldn't afford. In 2013 losing any one of Riewoldt, Fisher, Dempster, Hayes or Dal Santo would be hard to cover, while losing two of them would basically count us out completely. Consider Carlton's season this year for an example of what could happen.

Form of the older guys

The experienced, quality players have to keep performing near the level we know they can - this is mainly a mental question. Riewoldt has to be kicking goals; Fisher and Dempster have to be rocks in defence; Hayes, Dal and Joey have to continue to be the engine room. Once again, we can probably cover a form downturn in one of these guys, but any more than that is a stretch. There's such quality there that it doesn't just get replaced overnight - look at Brissie since 2003.

The mid-tier has to improve

This is the most important thing for us. 2012 was pleasing because it saw a few players take a step: Dempster, Armitage, Geary, Steven, Simpkin, Siposs. Dempster became a star, but the rest of them need to have a heap more improvement left in them for us to get close to a flag. Some of them need to take that Dempster step and become proper A-grade. Others in a similar spot include Ray, McEvoy, Roberton, Wilkes, Stanley and Dennis-Lane. If - for instance - Simpkin becomes the Hudghton/Scarlett clone that we hope for, Siposs becomes a dangerous forward, and Armo and Steven become A-grade mids then we're in with a real show.

We need a bolt from the blue

If just one inexperienced kid stands up and demands a spot as a classy regular then we get some X factor. Most premiership sides have someone winning a flag with less than 50 games under their belt because they forced their way in: Alex Johnson; Mitch Duncan; Beams and Sidebottom; Harry Taylor; Rioli; Selwood. Last year we had Saad come from nowhere, the year before Steven. This year it could probably be any of Newnes, Ledger, Dunell, Ross and Lee; maybe even Wright, Murdoch or Curren, or the forgotten man Jimmy Webster. It won't definitely happen - through the Lyon years not many at all popped up. But it's great when it does. And if it was more than one? That puts us seriously in the mix.


It's a tough four-part recipe but it's not out of the question. And we'll know by about round five on most of it. If we've got niggling injuries, the old guys are out of form, and no kids are particularly popping up then it'll be a long year. But hope springs eternal...

[gringo]

honestly i see us being better than -
GWS
Bulldogs
Port
GWS
Melbourne

i see us being a fair way off -
Hawthorn
Collingwood
WCE
Sydney
Crows
Freo

we are in the mix with the rest with possibly Essendon Richmond and North pulling away from us ... i see Carlton in a pretty similar position to us and lord only knows what Geelong will do now they have turned into a recycled player yard .. can we make the finals ? sure we can if we get a solid output from the older guys and a few of the younger guys burst out of the block but my gut feel we will be sitting about 11th on the ladder by years end ... that said i dont think it will be that long of a period before we are back up there

Pretty spot on assessment. We are in the middle of the teams but any of them could go up or down us included. It will be another really even season so luck will make the difference.

[busso mick]

The "window" being open for us in 2013 relies on four things:

Luck with injuries

Every team needs this every year. In 2012 we had relatively few injuries overall, but we lost McEvoy, Stanley and Fisher for periods we couldn't afford. In 2013 losing any one of Riewoldt, Fisher, Dempster, Hayes or Dal Santo would be hard to cover, while losing two of them would basically count us out completely. Consider Carlton's season this year for an example of what could happen.

Form of the older guys

The experienced, quality players have to keep performing near the level we know they can - this is mainly a mental question. Riewoldt has to be kicking goals; Fisher and Dempster have to be rocks in defence; Hayes, Dal and Joey have to continue to be the engine room. Once again, we can probably cover a form downturn in one of these guys, but any more than that is a stretch. There's such quality there that it doesn't just get replaced overnight - look at Brissie since 2003.

The mid-tier has to improve

This is the most important thing for us. 2012 was pleasing because it saw a few players take a step: Dempster, Armitage, Geary, Steven, Simpkin, Siposs. Dempster became a star, but the rest of them need to have a heap more improvement left in them for us to get close to a flag. Some of them need to take that Dempster step and become proper A-grade. Others in a similar spot include Ray, McEvoy, Roberton, Wilkes, Stanley and Dennis-Lane. If - for instance - Simpkin becomes the Hudghton/Scarlett clone that we hope for, Siposs becomes a dangerous forward, and Armo and Steven become A-grade mids then we're in with a real show.

We need a bolt from the blue

If just one inexperienced kid stands up and demands a spot as a classy regular then we get some X factor. Most premiership sides have someone winning a flag with less than 50 games under their belt because they forced their way in: Alex Johnson; Mitch Duncan; Beams and Sidebottom; Harry Taylor; Rioli; Selwood. Last year we had Saad come from nowhere, the year before Steven. This year it could probably be any of Newnes, Ledger, Dunell, Ross and Lee; maybe even Wright, Murdoch or Curren, or the forgotten man Jimmy Webster. It won't definitely happen - through the Lyon years not many at all popped up. But it's great when it does. And if it was more than one? That puts us seriously in the mix.


It's a tough four-part recipe but it's not out of the question. And we'll know by about round five on most of it. If we've got niggling injuries, the old guys are out of form, and no kids are particularly popping up then it'll be a long year. But hope springs eternal...

A very thorough analysis there Bergholt, well done. For mine your first point is paramount as it will ensure continuity in our side. Sydney had a reasonably stable list year injury wise when many considered their "window" was not even ajar.

[plugger66]

Well and truly shut. Doesnt mean we cant make the 8 but does mean we cant win it. We arent going to win 15 which you need at least to finish top 4. I think we will finish between 9th and 12 th but love to be wrong. if we finish 12 we will finish lower the following year because a finish like that will just about certainly see the end of Lenny and Milney. They may retire anyway but a top8 position will at least make them think of staying.

[AnythingsPossibleSaints]

No such thing as a premiership window, and the best team is not always the premier, hence we have as good a chance as anyone else next year. Go Sainters.

The Premiership window is the most overused concept in footy.

If you're good enough and you have some luck, you can win it.

Agree. Sydney have kept themselves thereabouts for the past few years and by being used to playing in big games and finals they were able to be good enough at the right time this year to win it.

When we were smashing them earlier in the year (the first time we played them), or when we had 37 inside 50's to 13 to start the 2nd half of our game against them at the SCG, later in the year, I sure wasn't looking at them and thinking "hey we're going really well here against the team that's going to win this year's flag".

I don't think they were the best team all year, but they were good enough to take their opportunities when they arose and that is sometimes all you need to do to win the flag. I don't for a second expect us to be the best team in the comp next year. Probably every single thing would have to go like a dream for us to achieve that, but that doesn't mean we couldn't put ourselves in a good enough position to be close enough if we're good enough, especially if it's another fairly open and even year. Again, we were just four 8 point or less losses away from a top 4 spot this year and we didn't have a great year by our recent standard by any means.

Who for instance would have tipped us to finish top of the ladder in 1997 and to go into the GF on the back of 10 straight wins, as the shortest priced favourite in years, after not having played finals since 1992?

Anything can happen if things go your way and you get on a roll and we as a club have shown on a few occasions in the past 15 years that we can get on a roll with the best of them.

[Teflon]

sliding till bout 2015 - praying that the new recruits measure. Don't see a Riewoldt among them yet.

[bergholt]

sliding till bout 2015 - praying that the new recruits measure. Don't see a Riewoldt among them yet.

Yeah, spot on.

It's pretty hard to win a flag without stars. I reckon that's at least a couple of players considered to be in the top twenty-five of the league. Here's the last few premiership sides lined up against Sheahan's pre-season top 50s:

2012: Goodes, Mumford
2011: Selwood, Chapman, Bartel, Scarlett
2010: -
2009: Ablett, Scarlett, Bartel, Corey
2008: Franklin, Hodge, Mitchell
2007: -
2006: Judd, Cousins
2005: Hall, Goodes
2004: Tredrea, Primus
2003: Voss, Leppitsch, Akermanis, Lappin, Brown

Obviously Geelong's rise in 2007 and Collingwood in 2010 are outliers to this, but they had players who came up during the season to star level: Ablett, Bartel, Ottens in 2007; Swan, Pendlebury, Thomas in 2010. Kennedy, Richards and Jack did it this year.

So you either need proper elite players, or players who reach that level during the year. And I agree with you, Teffers, that it's hard to see which current Saints players will reach actual stardom - there's no obvious Riewoldt, Hayes or Goddard, let alone a Dal Santo, Fisher or Montagna. Until we find a couple, the future will be cloudy.

[saint6709]

I was talking to some opposition supporters at the cricket yesterday. A couple of Carltons, a Collingwood and an Essendon.

The consensus was that we will not improve in 2013, that we had our chance and didn't take it.

I said, "we'll see" and pointed out that (apart from not nabbing a full back) I thought we'd recruited well.

What do Saintsationalists think in their hearts? Can we make the finals in 2013?

I am ever the optimist when it comes to the saints - I think we can give it a real crack this year and I believe in the way watters and pelchin etc etc are going about it - I don't give a to$$ what opposition supporters think - I don't care how opposition teams are training , recruiting, developing talent etc etc so have no real feel for how they are tracking and don't expect supporters of other clubs to be closely tracking our progress - so value their opinions not particularly highly

i think we will surprise alot of people in 2013 - Go Saints!

[samuraisaint]

We wouldn't want to lose Fisher for any period in 2013 - that would be absolutely disastrous.
Also - think without a full back we will struggle to hold any big forwards, especially those who are mobile, like Franklin or Riewoldt. We could cop a couple of hidings next year.
Having said all that, reckon we can make the eight, as we could beat any of the bottom eight from 2012, and a couple of finalists from this year too.
I expect a few sides to slide, Hawthorn being the obvious one, and Collingwood another.

Geelong will continue to be dangerous as they have recruited well.

Expect us to be aggressive in the trades next year as I predict the retirements of several club stalwarts at the end of next season, especially if we do end up missing out on finals action again.

[PJ]

Every year preseason speculation usually goes a#se up. Last year Carlton were supposed to set the world on fire and Adelaide were going to stay in the bottom half.

Window bolted shut? World coming to an end? Stanley to win the brownlow? Julia Gillard to stay prime minister? - Who knows

[bigcarl]

Well you'd think it's going to be Lenny's last crack at it and, with him being something of a spiritual leader, no doubt there's plenty of motivation. He's never been one to say "can't".

I attach great importance to a good start to the season. Set the standard early and anything can happen. Momentum is crucial.

[AnythingsPossibleSaints]

Well you'd think it's going to be Lenny's last crack at it and, with him being something of a spiritual leader, no doubt there's plenty of motivation. He's never been one to say "can't".

I attach great importance to a good start to the season. Set the standard early and anything can happen. Momentum is crucial.

Spot on bigcarl.

Our group will know there is every chance that it is the last year they'll have together and if that doesn't motivate them to go all-in then probably nothing will.

[plugger66]

Well you'd think it's going to be Lenny's last crack at it and, with him being something of a spiritual leader, no doubt there's plenty of motivation. He's never been one to say "can't".

I attach great importance to a good start to the season. Set the standard early and anything can happen. Momentum is crucial.

Spot on bigcarl.

Our group will know there is every chance that it is the last year they'll have together and if that doesn't motivate them to go all-in then probably nothing will.

I would suggest as well liked as Lenny is it will have no more than about .01% difference to next season. I cant think of a player who is going to think before any training session this could be Lennys last year so I better put in a bit more. This year could have been his last and we didnt make the 8.

[AnythingsPossibleSaints]

I wasn't necessarily suggesting that they would "do it for Lenny", but more that the whole group will know that there is every chance that this is the last year they will all have together, with Lenny, Milney, Kosi, etc and that if they want to really achieve something together that this could easily be the last chance to do that. They may have somewhat realised it this year, but BJ leaving, Kosi and CJ being dumped from the team for the last couple of games and Gram and Raph going might have just made them all a lot more acutely aware of it and who knows, it may have even been brought up by someone over the preseason, to try and get that extra little bit out of the group. And if you think that someone like Lenny couldn't inspire a group to lift then I believe you are mistaken.

[Quixote]

The only team that I felt really got on top of us last year was Hawthorn. And yet we still got back into that match.

If we must use the term, my opinion is the window is open.

[plugger66]

I wasn't necessarily suggesting that they would "do it for Lenny", but more that the whole group will know that there is every chance that this is the last year they will all have together, with Lenny, Milney, Kosi, etc and that if they want to really achieve something together that this could easily be the last chance to do that. They may have somewhat realised it this year, but BJ leaving, Kosi and CJ being dumped from the team for the last couple of games and Gram and Raph going might have just made them all a lot more acutely aware of it and who knows, it may have even been brought up by someone over the preseason, to try and get that extra little bit out of the group. And if you think that someone like Lenny couldn't inspire a group to lift then I believe you are mistaken.

The problem with Lenny inspiring a group either suggests he didnt this year or if he did we just werent good enough and i fail to see how BJ and Gram going will help them either. lets face it our only hope of success revolves around our 3rd to 5th year players doing a kennedy or a Jack this coming season. All other thoughts are really grasping at straws.

[saintdooley]

very interesting read.

the 'window' has a different meaning to everyone. our premiership window closed for good at about half time in the replay grand final. all the hard work, all those years of pain, there was to be no reward at the end.
In my view it is shut, and will be for a while. we have some great young players to come through and still a lot of skill in our older players, but we are far from any sort of threat when it comes to Grand final day. We may make the 8 next year and we may win a final, but i see us as no threat what so ever and the bolts on that window are still screwed on pretty well.

[Dr Spaceman]

Well if the window is shut then hopefully we can Lever it open

[bigcarl]

And if you think that someone like Lenny couldn't inspire a group to lift then I believe you are mistaken.

Agree. I know he's not captain, but his leadership is inspirational. Makes everyone go up a notch.

[plugger66]

And if you think that someone like Lenny couldn't inspire a group to lift then I believe you are mistaken.

Agree. I know he's not captain, but he is an inspirational figure. Makes everyone go up a notch.

No he doesnt. He makes supporters go up a notch. If that was the case we would have won the 2010 GF by 10 goals.