Spencer White

[gringo]

just watched the you tube vid
i like what i saw at the end of it
some big marks and has a very relaxed action on the left when kicking for goal

gee, hopefully he turns into something special for us in the next two or so years

Yeah, apparently that video doesn't really do justice to his high marking capabilities. That big one in the goalsquare near the end is apparently one of several like that he took this year. It seems he is more renowned by those who have seen him play full games for his strong and at times spectacular overhead marking, rather than his Buddy-style runs, which are more prevalent in the video. The fact he can do both, as well as get good separation on the lead, augurs very well for his prospects, though.

As for his run-up when kicking for goal, it is one of the most relaxed and rhythmical that I've seen, so that will hopefully hold him in good stead going forward.

I'm loving that most of those we've gotten for our forward line in the past couple of years seem to be so accurate when shooting for goal.
White, Lee, Siposs, Saad, TDL in particular all look to be exceptionally accurate, generally. Milera and Wilkes also look to be above average at least in that area.

He remind me of the big Snake G Train. Laconic kicking style that gets the job done. I just heard the SEN guy Luff talking the AFL prospectus run downs on clubs and he predicts that our 3 years of below standard recruiting are going to put us out of the picture for a long time. We had better hope some of our speculative recruiting is on the money because we are in for a world of pain otherwise. Nearly all our recruits seem to be a little bit blessed with x factor lately so hopefully we can get some happening because we need some gun mids bad.

[AnythingsPossibleSaints]

He remind me of the big Snake G Train. Laconic kicking style that gets the job done.

Yep, me too. Really like it.

I just heard the SEN guy Luff talking the AFL prospectus run downs on clubs and he predicts that our 3 years of below standard recruiting are going to put us out of the picture for a long time. We had better hope some of our speculative recruiting is on the money because we are in for a world of pain otherwise. Nearly all our recruits seem to be a little bit blessed with x factor lately so hopefully we can get some happening because we need some gun mids bad.

If it hadn't been for the way we've gone about our recruiting and drafting in the past couple of years (especially effectively getting two or three for one pick on three occasions- we've effectively gotten Saad, Milera, Ross, Lee, Hickey, Wright, White and TDL for 4 picks- 12, 13, 20 and 37, which is bloody outstanding, IMO) then I would probably be concerned as well, but I think we've done tremendously well with the picks we've had to work with in the last two trade/draft periods and as a result I expect that we will have averted that fate.

I think it has helped us to avoid going the way the Western Bulldogs have in the past couple of years, for instance and has put us in a strong position to be able to instead go the way Sydney did after they dropped out of the 8 in 2009, after years in the finals (when they had a fair bit worse year than we did this year). They looked like they were on the way out, but one really good trade/draft period (2009, when they traded for Kennedy, Mumford, McGlynn and drafted Jetta and Reid) helped them to turn things around and put them on the path that included playing finals every year since and ultimately winning the premiership this year.

We now have 29 on our lists who are listed as going to be 24yo or under at the start of next season, so despite what some think, we have ample "youth" (and which we rate so highly that we didn't even bother to participate in either of yesterday's drafts- which has to tell you something), but we still also have ample "top end talent", in the form of Riewoldt, Hayes, Milne, Fisher, Dal, Joey, Dempster, Gwilt, Gilbert, etc. who, unless they all of a sudden hit the wall en masse, or get a bunch of injuries at the same time, ought to be able to enable us to stay highly competitive (as we were this year), while gradually integrating those under 24 into our senior team, where they get to learn from some of the best in the business, side by side and get to play in highly competitive games of footy, in a team that knows how to win, rather then in games that are non-competitive, in a team that is out of the habit of winning and will pretty much need to learn how to win again (which can take time).

The other thing potentially in our favour from this point on is the fact that free agency is now upon us. It's looking like we could have up to $1million spare in the salary cap from the end of next season on and if anyone like Hayes or Milne happen to retire in 12 months time (on top of Kosi, CJ and Blake, who probably will, plus Gram being paid out by then), we could have a lot more, so that means we could be in a VERY strong position to go very hard at next year's Brendon Goddard, Josh Caddy, Mitch Clarke, Clinton Young, etc, and especially anyone who wants out of GWS and wants to come to Melb. Our relationship with SOS (if he is still there) could help us considerably with that.

10 years ago (probably the last time we had a heap of salary cap space free) we got F Gehrig, A Hamill and S Lawrence in one trade week and I imagine we'll be going hard to pull off something similar to that next year, especially if say Hayes or Milne happen to retire. And maybe again, the following year, if we have more free cap space then, depending on how many, if any, we land next year.

So there's no doubt that we could drop right away, if, as I said, the older ones on our list all hit the wall en masse, or if we got a year or more of terrible injuries, but if neither of those things happens, I'm confident that we can remain highly competitive, at a minimum, for the next couple of years, while the transition takes place between the generations. If we don't though, then we drop down the ladder and get ourselves some nice juicy high draft picks, to get that "elite" younger talent that we may be lacking. Either way, we have nothing to fear.

I agree that we will most likely need to add some "elite" talent to our midfield, over the next couple of years, though, either from some on our own list really stepping it up, or from trading/free agency/drafting, because teams like GWS, Gold Coast, Western Bulldogs and Richmond are stocking up big-time in that area. If everyone thought Brisbane's midfield was good in the early 2000's, or Geelong's or Collingwood's in recent years, they may almost pale into insignificance compared to what some of these teams may come up with in their midfield's in the next 10 years, especially GWS.

Something that I like to do to be comfortable about our prospects long term is to look at what our team in 5 years time might look like and for the first time in probably a few years I think it's worth doing one now. I now feel that we have enough quality "young talent" on our list to be able to do one and be confident of how this team would perform if they stepped out on the park for us in 5 years time. Even if we didn't add anyone to our list for the next 4 years, this looks like a potentially very competitive team right here, if we had to keep the same list for the next 5 years, except for retirements. There is some serious potential quality on that interchange bench, let alone in the team itself (the starting 18 is pretty conservative, some I've named on the bench will probably have passed some of those in the starting 18 by then, those most likely coming from: Ross, Wright, Minchington, Hickey, Saunders, Murdoch, Dunell and hopefully Ferguson):

2017 R1 team:

B: Gwilt Stanley Geary

HB: Gilbert Simpkin Siposs

C: Newnes Steven Dal Santo

HF: Markworth Lee Milera

F: Saad White Wilkes/Hickey

R: McEvoy Armitage Ledger

I: Ross Dunell Wright Minchington Saunders Wilkes/Hickey Roberton Murdoch Webster Ferguson Lever Staley Dennis-Lane Curren Pierce Shenton

[plugger66]

We can spin it anyway we like but we are going to drop down the ladder. You dont replace once in a generation players and we will probably lose 2 of those at the end of next year and maybe another at the end of 2014. All of them arent going to be replaced with what we have now. One may but not 3. We also will lose great players like Chips and Dal in a few years as well as Joey. They may be replaced but even that maybe hopeful. And if they are replaced I doubt they will be at their peak when those players retire.

It was said today we only have 5 players on our list out of 24 taken between 2008 and 2010. Of those none are better than GOPS at the moment. You cant just lose 3 years of recruiting and expect to stay up especially as our stars will go in a group.

As for GWS that will not help us with FA and having SOS there will again not help us at all. By the way you have to pay 95% of your salary cap a year so players do retire together we arent going to have a huge number to spend. it will be a very good amount though but do you want to get stars in if our stars are going to retire unless of course kids come through quicker than the average kid takes. I cant see why that would happen though especially as we havent had a high draft pick for years.

[AnythingsPossibleSaints]

I disagree with much of that and if you reckon SOS doing the negotiating for GWS didn't help us to get Saad and Milera for just a 5 pick downgrade (possibly the most one-sided deal in history) and to then get Lee, as well as picks 24 and 43, for pick 12, when some in the industry apparently rated him as being worth as much as a top 10-12 pick this year, then I believe you're very mistaken there. He gave us "mates rates" in a big way. I very much doubt he would have given them to any other clubs (except maybe Freo) that cheaply.

By the way, I must have missed us taking a dive down the ladder when our last batch of "once in a generation players", such as Nathan Burke, Aussie Jones, Robert Harvey, Fraser Gehrig, Aaron Hamill, Andrew Thompson, Max Hudghton and co. retired. All of them retired in the 2003-2009 period and in that time we didn't have a single season when we lost more games than we won. In much of that time we were of course playing in finals, prelims and grannys.

So not only can be done, but we've even done it ourselves fairly recently and with free agency being available to us now, on top of trading, we can now potentially replace the next batch "like for like" immediately, if those on our list already are not able to step up that much. I'm not suggesting that it will be easy to do that, by any means, but again, we've done something similar ourselves in recent years, when we got all of Gehrig, Hamill and Lawrence in one go and that was before free agency was even an option. Like we did this year, I expect we will be going very hard at trading and/or FA over the next few years, as those older ones you spoke of retire, freeing up lots of cap space.

As for needing the younger ones to "come on quicker than the average kid takes" you might not have noticed, but in the past two years we've seemingly made a concerted effort to draft/trade for those that are in the 21-24yo age bracket, that we really rate, to make up for those lost years you spoke of, as I said in my post above. So we've effectively skipped the "development phase" with them and gotten them when they're ready to roll from day one.

Just like how Saad and Milera were able to come in straight away this year and make a significant impact (averaging over 3 goals a game between them, despite it being their first years of senior AFL footy) we will be hoping that Lee and Hickey (if required) will be able to come in and make a similarly immediate impact next season and that the likes of TDL and Roberton will be as well, if needed.

By the time the likes of Milne and Roo retire, for instance, the likes of Saad, Milera and Lee will hopefully have as many as 50 games up and be in at least their mid 20's. I'm not suggesting that it's likely that they'll be as good as them, but they are likely to be well and truly established by then and able to take on the added responsibility, hopefully with help from others, like TDL, Spencer White, Markworth, Minchington, etc.

Saad, Lee and Hickey may not have been drafted in that 2008-2010 period (although Lee was, originally) but they may as well have been, as they fit into that age bracket and Siposs was one of those we drafted in 2010 and while he may not have been taken in the top 20 then, if the draft was done over tomorrow, I can pretty much guarantee you he would be now. Steven, Stanley and Simpkin were others taken in that 2008-2010 period and I'm confident that they will also continue to improve and be well and truly worth having in the team and that they will start taking more of a load off the older ones from next season onwards.

As for the salary cap and needing to use up 95% of it, I'm not sure what you're getting at there, but I'm aware that you need to use up 95% of it. I'm also aware that we would have had a big chunk of space set aside for BJ's next contract in next year's cap, so, now that we've lost him, I expect that at least one contract will have been re-negotiated, since he left, to front-end it for next year, to take up some of that space that BJ would have taken up (I imagine Riewoldt's recent contract extension would have had that done to it- he's probably getting a huge chunk of it next year and very little the next, to open up loads of space in our salary cap for 2014). So not only will we have almost all the space we had earmarked for both Goddard and Roo's 2014 contracts available to us from the end of next year (if we've re-negotiated Roo's and front ended it into next year), but we will also have all the space that Gram's contract was going to take up (probably $400K, from what we hear), plus all the space that Kosi's contract ending will free up, ditto Jones' contract and then, as I said, if Lenny or Milne retire, that will free up even more.

I see all that adding up to at least $1million free cap space for 2014, and possibly quite a lot more, especially if we do in fact fill up as much as we can of next year's cap, by front-ending some contracts, now that Goddard has gone and we've missed out on Mitch Brown (who we could apparently afford even if we kept BJ, so that is even more free cap space we have!) Then, if we don't get anyone through FA or trading next year, we front end a bunch of contracts again for the next year, to A: Make sure that we meet the 95% requirement and B: Make sure that we have a heap of cap space free at the end of the following year as well, to again go hard at FA/trading. You just keep on doing that until you land some "gun free agents" or "trade big-fish", while also using the draft to get the best young talent you can.

As I said, we could certainly go either way, but I don't believe that it's a "given" at all that we have to go further down any time soon and I don't believe that the club believes that either.

[plugger66]

Sorry I thought we got Rooy because of finishing bottom. Also Ball, Dal BJ and others because we were down the bottom. Our past top 10 pick was probably Armo. And as much as he is improving he isnt replacing Lenny.

[Con Gorozidis]

Tom Lee is(was) the best player outside of the AFL.

[AnythingsPossibleSaints]

Sorry I thought we got Rooy because of finishing bottom. Also Ball, Dal BJ and others because we were down the bottom. Our past top 10 pick was probably Armo. And as much as he is improving he isnt replacing Lenny.

There are many ways to skin a cat. How many top 10 picks did Sydney have in their premiership team this year? So that you don't have to look it up, I'm pretty sure it was the number one higher than zero.

It can be done and will be done again, I imagine.

We can also do a lot of damage with a big cheque book and $1million+ of free space in the salary cap.

[plugger66]

Sorry I thought we got Rooy because of finishing bottom. Also Ball, Dal BJ and others because we were down the bottom. Our past top 10 pick was probably Armo. And as much as he is improving he isnt replacing Lenny.

There are many ways to skin a cat.

There are but all logic suggests you dont replace once in a generation players with picks outside the top 5 and if you do it may be one every few years and not a group all at once. Especially in a time where we have had compromised drafts. Those 3 years of pathetic recruiting will have to hurt.

[AnythingsPossibleSaints]

As I said in my edited post above, I'm pretty sure Sydney only had one in their premiership team this year that they got in the top 10 of a draft and we can also do a lot of damage with a big cheque book and $1million+ of free space in the salary cap.

Our list is also in much, much better shape than many of the "doomsdayers" reckon. We've undone a lot of the damage of those 2008-2010 years with our drafting and trading in the past 14 months. We really have. The fact that we were so comfortable with our lists that we didn't have a single pick in either of yesterday's drafts, despite every other team except Geelong having at least one, is a good indication of how confident we are of all the "youth" on the list.

I agree, as I've said a few times in the past couple of days, that we will most likely need to add some serious class to our midfield in the next year or two, though, depending on how those we already have develop. If one or more really step up more than expected, as often happens when a need arises, then that will lessen that need. That will probably be a huge priority though. If there is a Caddy, or Boak available next year, I expect we will be going massively hard at them, especially anyone that slips out of GWS, as I said.

Depending on what happens next year we may also be looking at FB again, but other than that, our list is looking to have pretty good depth everywhere, as I showed in that projected/possible 2017 team I listed above. There are no obviously big holes there as far as I'm concerned, except for maybe some "elite" talent in the midfield and someone really good for FB, depending on how we go there next year and beyond.

[SuperDuper]

[quote]Siposs was one of those we drafted in 2010 and while he may not have been taken in the top 20 then, if the draft was done over tomorrow[quote]

Gotta agree with that... the bloke is at the bottom age of the 2010 group... his peers are almost closer to the 2011 group.. .if he were compared with the 2011 group, he has 16 games, making him right up there... would be easily top 20 in a 2010 "redraft".. and may prove to be even higher in the long run

[gringo]

I'm not sure we need once in a generation players on mass. We more need a solid spread of talent than a few key players. Armo might do the same as the post Harvey mid field did. It was almost like the loss of Harvey made them need to step up. Sydney don't need 22 guns, just 22 contributors. The Swans have a premiership with only a few guys I consider in the top 60 players in the AFL. Goodes is outstanding and then there are a few on the fringes of being superstars. After Lockett we were never going to play another final. Hall was a disaster, all worked out. I have a lot of faith in the systematic approach of Pelchen's team.

They seem to have a solid plan, sometimes working with your back to the wall makes you creative. Melbourne seems to have been lazy in their recruiting because they had no pressure other than taking the guys everyone thought they should.

[bobmurray]

I'm not sure we need once in a generation players on mass. We more need a solid spread of talent than a few key players. Armo might do the same as the post Harvey mid field did. It was almost like the loss of Harvey made them need to step up. Sydney don't need 22 guns, just 22 contributors. The Swans have a premiership with only a few guys I consider in the top 60 players in the AFL. Goodes is outstanding and then there are a few on the fringes of being superstars. After Lockett we were never going to play another final. Hall was a disaster, all worked out. I have a lot of faith in the systematic approach of Pelchen's team.

They seem to have a solid plan, sometimes working with your back to the wall makes you creative. Melbourne seems to have been lazy in their recruiting because they had no pressure other than taking the guys everyone thought they should.

Melbourne have had a bit of a clean out, who's to say they have got it right this time with their top ups .....

I hope the saints don't ever follow melbournes recruiting model

[gringo]

I'm not sure we need once in a generation players on mass. We more need a solid spread of talent than a few key players. Armo might do the same as the post Harvey mid field did. It was almost like the loss of Harvey made them need to step up. Sydney don't need 22 guns, just 22 contributors. The Swans have a premiership with only a few guys I consider in the top 60 players in the AFL. Goodes is outstanding and then there are a few on the fringes of being superstars. After Lockett we were never going to play another final. Hall was a disaster, all worked out. I have a lot of faith in the systematic approach of Pelchen's team.

They seem to have a solid plan, sometimes working with your back to the wall makes you creative. Melbourne seems to have been lazy in their recruiting because they had no pressure other than taking the guys everyone thought they should.

Melbourne have had a bit of a clean out, who's to say they have got it right this time with their top ups .....

I hope the saints don't ever follow melbournes recruiting model

Melbournes list is so awful it's scary. They have no mids coming through anytime soon and apart from Nathan Jones are fairly ordinary. Tompas and Viney are 3 years off being elite so there is some serious pain coming their way for a while. They didn't even get the right types of retreads.

[PJ]

Sorry I thought we got Rooy because of finishing bottom. Also Ball, Dal BJ and others because we were down the bottom. Our past top 10 pick was probably Armo. And as much as he is improving he isnt replacing Lenny.

Likewise having top draft picks doesn't garrantee you a shot at the top - "melbourne fc". It's about having a good structure/system in place to maximise the potential that exists within your walls. You keep sprouting this we're on the slide philosophy but times change and what used to happen doesn't necessarily happen any more.

[AnythingsPossibleSaints]

Siposs was one of those we drafted in 2010 and while he may not have been taken in the top 20 then, if the draft was done over tomorrow

Gotta agree with that... the bloke is at the bottom age of the 2010 group... his peers are almost closer to the 2011 group.. .if he were compared with the 2011 group, he has 16 games, making him right up there... would be easily top 20 in a 2010 "redraft".. and may prove to be even higher in the long run

He might indeed. If he was born just 6 weeks later he would have played U18's for one more year (all things being equal) and could have been taken much, much higher in the following year's draft, especially if he'd been given more opportunities to play in different positions, to show his versatility, and if he'd been able to test at the combine that year, which he didn't in the year he got drafted in (due to injury, which would have contributed to him sliding to 75, I expect).

I re-read an old article on him a few days ago and it said that he went from playing U16's footy for Beaconsfield to playing senior AFL footy with us, within 20 games. http://www.heraldsun.com.au/afl/mor...- ... 6052136130

I don't think he necessarily even ever did an U18's preseason in the TAC Cup. He may have gone from doing a local footy preseason with his U16's team one year, to doing an AFL preseason with us the following year and then being in our senior team within 4 games the following season!

Given the amount of talent, class, versatility and potential he has and how he's taken to playing senior AFL footy like a duck to water, it wouldn't surprise me in the least if he was taken as high as top ten if his draft was done again today. At the very least I expect he'd be taken in the top 20.

I'm not sure we need once in a generation players on mass. We more need a solid spread of talent than a few key players. Armo might do the same as the post Harvey mid field did. It was almost like the loss of Harvey made them need to step up. Sydney don't need 22 guns, just 22 contributors. The Swans have a premiership with only a few guys I consider in the top 60 players in the AFL. Goodes is outstanding and then there are a few on the fringes of being superstars. After Lockett we were never going to play another final. Hall was a disaster, all worked out. I have a lot of faith in the systematic approach of Pelchen's team.

They seem to have a solid plan, sometimes working with your back to the wall makes you creative.

Agree with all that. It's amazing how when you need someone to step up, someone invariably does.

Last year when Lenny went down with his knee was another example. Armo was doing OK I thought, in his place, but then out of nowhere Jack Steven (who had been in and out of the team all year and was struggling in the forward pocket at the time) was all of a sudden thrown into the middle and started getting clearances galore and was a bit of a revelation there. Very few would have seen that coming.

He plateaued a bit this year, while Armo took another step up, but Jack now has 50 games under his belt (a lot less than most of his draft class, some of whom have as many as 110) and ought to be really ready to take another big step forward next year.

In spite of Lenny going down early last year and us getting off to a horrible start as a team, we were still able to finish off the season so strongly that we ended up the H&A rounds in 6th spot, despite Lenny not playing any part on-field after R2 and I think everyone would agree that if Lenny was to retire in 12 months time, that Jack and Armo would be in a far greater position to be able to take over from him then, than they were 18 months ago, when they made a pretty good fist of it as it was. Hopefully by then someone else like Ledger and/or Ross will also be making strong inroads into the team and/or we have someone lined up through free agency or a trade, to help out.

As you said though, it's going to be all about playing as a team and everyone sticking to the plan and giving it all they've got and improving on our weaknesses as a team, not so much any of the individuals involved, that is going to determine whether we stay strong, or fall down the ladder.

We need to stay focused on what it is we need to do, not worry about who is or isn't going to be there to do it. If we're strong as an organisation, someone will be able to step up and bear the load.

[Jiminy Wagga]

Sorry I thought we got Rooy because of finishing bottom. Also Ball, Dal BJ and others because we were down the bottom. Our past top 10 pick was probably Armo. And as much as he is improving he isnt replacing Lenny.

There are many ways to skin a cat.

There are but all logic suggests you dont replace once in a generation players with picks outside the top 5 and if you do it may be one every few years and not a group all at once. Especially in a time where we have had compromised drafts. Those 3 years of pathetic recruiting will have to hurt.

I disagree. Chips was picked in the 50's joey circa pick 37 Gilbert in the 20's dal pick 13 ..I don't believe in premiership windows I think that's an excuse exception of course are 2 expansion teams..look at Sydney hawks and the baby bombers in 93. its about replinishing the list and balancing the list which we have done in the last couple of years.there's no need to bottom out anymore

[plugger66]

There are but all logic suggests you dont replace once in a generation players with picks outside the top 5 and if you do it may be one every few years and not a group all at once. Especially in a time where we have had compromised drafts. Those 3 years of pathetic recruiting will have to hurt.

I disagree. Chips was picked in the 50's joey circa pick 37 Gilbert in the 20's dal pick 13 ..I don't believe in premiership windows I think that's an excuse exception of course are 2 expansion teams..look at Sydney hawks and the baby bombers in 93. its about replinishing the list and balancing the list which we have done in the last couple of years.there's no need to bottom out anymore

The problem is our best players are our older players and by a long way. We have lost BJ, Lenny and Milney probably have a year left and then Rooy 2 years. By then Dal and Chips will nearly be gone as well and even joey. We lost 3 years of the draft with only 5 players from that era still on the list and none better than GOPS at this stage. Now people are saying we recruited players of a more mature age to replace the players we missed out in that period. Whilst that is true only 2 of them have played and that is Saad and Milera. Both show promise but need to improve quickly for us to improve. Then we got another 3 or 4 of that age this year. Apart from TDL who is a Gop none are AFL proven.

People use Sydney as an example. The problem with using them is that they are so even and we are not. Our midfield for a start is in real trouble. Clearly our best mids are Lenny, Dal and Joey. Jack and Armo are nice players and after that we have unproven players. Games are won in the midfield.

Teams improve every year and no improvement will see you drop down the ladder. Our only hope to improve this year is for Milera, Saad, Stanley, Jack and Armo to improve by at least 20% because losing BJ and even Gram and with stars getting older we have lost at least 15% there. People thinking Hickey, Lee and TDL are going to be good players in their first year are in fantasy land.

[White Winmar]

Sorry I thought we got Rooy because of finishing bottom. Also Ball, Dal BJ and others because we were down the bottom. Our past top 10 pick was probably Armo. And as much as he is improving he isnt replacing Lenny.

It was Ben McEvoy. Pick 9, 2007 draft.

[kosifantutti]

Our list is also in much, much better shape than many of the "doomsdayers" reckon. We've undone a lot of the damage of those 2008-2010 years with our drafting and trading in the past 14 months. We really have. The fact that we were so comfortable with our lists that we didn't have a single pick in either of yesterday's drafts, despite every other team except Geelong having at least one, is a good indication of how confident we are of all the "youth" on the list.

I wouldn't read anything into that. We had no spots on either list except for the delisting of Winmar. We effectively drafted Roberton before the PSD.

And I can't remember the club coming out after any of the previous drafts and saying 'gee we did poorly this year' Of course they feel comfortable with those they just drafted.

[matrix]

if milney and lenny have reasonable years i would expect them to play on
especially lenny
if he gets thru the year without a serious injury he could easily go on again, possibly two

he still has it
look at his 2012 performance
ill stick $50 on it now he goes around again (bar some injury which cuts his career short)
milney im not sure
if kicks another 50 odd i reckon he'll go again, if he is wanted

i think we look alright
i cant see us bottoming out at all
around 9 to 11 position in the ladder at the worst i reckon
if roo dal joey are around for another 2 years and lenny and milne at least one more each after this season then the knowledge the young brigade will gain is very valuable.
i dont see why we couldnt be a swans
and lenny could be bolton

quite easily imo

[Dave McNamara]

There are but all logic suggests you dont replace once in a generation players with picks outside the top 5 and if you do it may be one every few years and not a group all at once. Especially in a time where we have had compromised drafts. Those 3 years of pathetic recruiting will have to hurt.

The problem is our best players are our older players and by a long way. We have lost BJ, Lenny and Milney probably have a year left and then Rooy 2 years. By then Dal and Chips will nearly be gone as well and even joey. We lost 3 years of the draft with only 5 players from that era still on the list and none better than GOPS at this stage. Now people are saying we recruited players of a more mature age to replace the players we missed out in that period. Whilst that is true only 2 of them have played and that is Saad and Milera. Both show promise but need to improve quickly for us to improve. Then we got another 3 or 4 of that age this year. Apart from TDL who is a Gop none are AFL proven.

People use Sydney as an example. The problem with using them is that they are so even and we are not. Our midfield for a start is in real trouble. Clearly our best mids are Lenny, Dal and Joey. Jack and Armo are nice players and after that we have unproven players. Games are won in the midfield.

Teams improve every year and no improvement will see you drop down the ladder. Our only hope to improve this year is for Milera, Saad, Stanley, Jack and Armo to improve by at least 20% because losing BJ and even Gram and with stars getting older we have lost at least 15% there. People thinking Hickey, Lee and TDL are going to be good players in their first year are in fantasy land.

Wow, Pluggs, this debate really means something to you(!) ...you've brought your ghost writer back in.

I can see your point re our elite players either retiring or twilight zoning over the next couple of seasons. Can we replace them like-for-like...? Maybe not, as you fear.

However, maybe the question to also ask is... can we replace them very adequately?

For reasons outlined by the likes of APS, I'm confident that (unlike Obama)... yes we can. And don't be too surprised when several of our young'ns end up as elite players.

Then throw in us now having our salary cap sorted for the first time in nearly a decade... hold tight for some marauding not seen since the Vikings.

Things are looking good. Think those positive vibes.



(We might yet get in your mate Chip Frawley? And Hurley... knowing how keen you are on repatriating Saint's supporters...)

[loris]

'AnythingsPossibleSaints'............................... I think I'm falling in love with you................. or at least your posts.
Keep 'em coming, you make me feel confident about the next few years for the Saints. Thanks!!

[saintsRrising]

2013...yes not doubt there area lot of "if's". If they do not work, 9th will be a good result. But if they do we could be a much better team than we were in 2012.

Jack: Looks ready to bloom to be a truly good mid.
Armo: I don't think that he will be as good as Jack. But there is upside still.

Rhys: Is one of the big keys foe 2013. If he can have a good year it really changes the dynamic of our forward line and will greatly ease the pressure on Roo. It will also mean that it will be a lot easier for the third tall to make a reasonable contribution. Lee, Wilkes and Kosi are all options. Rhys will also be needed for those athletic ruckman that Ben cannot handle.

Saad: had a great first year. However at times was a bit lost in team play. ie knowing when to handball rather than shoot for goal etc. I expect that the coaches will have really worked on this and that Saad will be more valuable in 2013.

Schneider: I am a big fan as he really sets up play well. But 2012 he had various injury interuptions. If he can be fit and firing I expect to see him rotate through the midfield more.

Siposs: Should become a valuable contributor and would not surprise to see him take over BJ's role as he designated kicker out of defence.

Sam: I expect to see him play full back. Dempster and others will play his former sweeper role. Hopefully Simpkim will have gained a few more kilos of muscle to better assist him.

Depth: With Dunnel, Milera, TDL etc the club ow has much better depth.


But yes we need players emerge....to take the next step. If noy,then bottom eight is the likely fate.

[AnythingsPossibleSaints]

For mine, a heap of it is going to come down to what Thommo alluded to in the other thread and that is how much of a fire in the belly do the older ones still have?

If it is not quite there, then we we won't be doing anything but making up the numbers, as the younger ones are not ready to step up that much yet, but if they see the writing on the wall after the likes of Kosi, Blake and CJ were out of the team to end this year (plus the fact that BJ, Gram and Raph are now gone) and realise that this year is almost certainly the last that they are all going to be together and the last chance they're going to have to do anything significant together, then that might awaken the beast that has been pretty much asleep since the 2010 GF replay and get them fired up to have one last harrah.

If they come out breathing fire at the start of the year and get off to a flier and get a taste for winning and being in the top 8 again, then I have no doubt that they can still play very good footy, as older teams like Geelong and Sydney have also done in the past few years.

If those SR mentioned in the post above do also step up to support them and we have a decent run with injuries, then we can make up that 4 goals that was the difference between us making the top 4 this year and missing the 8 altogether. If West Coast could go from stone motherless last in 2010 to top 4 in 2011 then we can sure as s*** turn around missing the top 4 by losing 4 games by 8 points or less, or at the very least arrest the slide and start improving again.

There are lots and lots of ways we can improve on this year. There will be plenty of things making that difficult, but they can be overcome, if we really want it.

[AnythingsPossibleSaints]

I posted this in a thread on BF about who in your team's best 22 was likely to improve, stay the same, or decline next year and it shows just how many in our side could genuinely have better years next year without all that much trouble:


This is based on everyone playing most games and not carrying any significant injuries next year, as it's not worth trying to predict who will and won't get injured in 2013:

B: Gwilt (+) Fisher (+) Geary (=)
HB: Gilbert (+) Simpkin (+) Dempster (=)
C: Schneider (+) Hayes (=) Dal Santo (=)
HF: Saad (=) Stanley (+) Steven (+)
F: Milne (-) Riewoldt (+) Wilkes (+)
R: McEvoy (+) Armitage (+) Montagna (=)
I: Milera (+) Siposs (+) Ray (+) Lee (+)

>Gwilt- Coming back from his knee reco (which saw him miss the first several games) he was no-where near as good as he was the previous year or two, so could very easily improve next year on his 2012 output.
>Fisher- Missed chunks of footy this year, so if he plays most games next year he'll almost certainly have a better year.
>Geary- Really stepped it up this year and could easily improve again, but may plateau before going up another notch in a year or so.
>Gilbert- Last two years not a patch on his form from 2009/2010, but showed signs in the 2nd half that he was getting back closer to best.
>Simpkin- Apparently had successful surgery on chronic shin splints 12 months ago, so last summer was his 1st proper preseason. Was very good this year, but with another good preseason and a year of footy under his belt, will hopefully be better and stronger next year.
>Dempster- Has had two terrific years back to back and hard to see him having an even better one next year.
>Schneider- Hardly played and apparently carried an ankle injury this year when he did, so not hard for him to have a vastly improved year next year.
>Hayes- Played pretty much the whole year with a leaky heart valve that reportedly caused him breathing difficulties and was also coming off a knee reco, so could be better next year with those two things sorted, but that would take some doing at his age, considering he still won the B&F and came 8th in the Brownlow!
>Dal Santo- Was no-where near as good this year as he was last year, but with Goddard gone he probably gets tagged most weeks next year. Big challenge for him.
>Saad- Did very well in his first year, so won't be easy to top that immediately, although he did hurt his knee mid-season and could do better again with another preseason under his belt and his knee better. He was apparently pretty tired by the end of this season, so he will probably be "better for the run".
>Stanley- Missed two sizeable chunks of matches through injury, but was looking more assured by the week when he was playing. Is coming up to that age, so could be in for a break-out year, up forward, back, or in the ruck.
>Steven- Probably wasn't as good this year as last, really, so we need him to step it up a notch or two next year.
>Milne- Just keeps on kicking 50+ goals. May start declining next year. May not.
>Riewoldt- Reportedly had some very successful treatments from Europe on his dodgy knee/s during 2012 and was actually able to train mid week again by the 2nd half of the season and started to get back close to his very best as a result. If his knees continue to improve, he could be good for all/more of next year.
>Wilkes- Was continually subbed off, dropped, etc this year (especially early), so if given a chance to really settle and play more games, could easily have a better year. Has apparently fronted up to preseason looking much fitter and slimmer, so ought to improve for sure.
>McEvoy- Missed a chunk of games through injury in 2012 and is now getting to that age where he could really start reaching his peak in the ruck and around the ground. Seems very primed for a big year.
>Armitage- Was generally very good this year and we need him to go up another notch again next year.
>Montagna- Hasn't been as good the last two years, but still very consistent.
>Milera- Started well, but then faded a bit, but came back pretty well at the end. Looking forward to seeing him after another preseason and with a year under his belt, maybe even on the wing.
>Siposs- Huge potential across HF, HB, or wing. Finished off 2012 terrifically and will be in 3rd season and 20yo next year. Will play some of the roles Goddard did and has some very similar weapons/attributes. Cherry ripe to step it up.
>Ray- Was very stiff to spend so much time in the VFL this year, as he was generally very good when he played seniors. Could get more game time again with Goddard and Gram now gone and could almost cancel out Gram's loss on his own.
> Lee- We didn't give up pick 12 to be able to get him for no reason. Kicked 60 goals in 14 WAFL games this year and another 10 in the Foxtel Cup (including 6 in the GF against Werribee) and like Saad this year (who kicked 50 goals in 20 games in the VFL last year) will hopefully come in and hit the ground running (and jumping) next year. Could have played plenty of senior AFL footy this year if he'd been on an AFL list, so with another AFL preseason under his belt and being 22 next year, could play a big part.

Goddard, Gram and Cripps all gone are all minuses though, especially the former two, although neither of them had been close to their best consistently for two years.