Banking on the Draft

[damienc]

We're in the silly season of footy when NOT much is happening apart from drafting new players, some old some new and saying goodbye to others who didn't work out. But this year's draft has got me a bit excited about 2013.

It could be because I'm seeing everything through rose colored glasses and all of that optimism is being generated by hope rather than anything tangible.

I am also tired and impatient that we've only ever won a single premiership and I'm still dark on the fact that we let a player of the calibre of Luke Ball, a midfielder with real talent, to go to the filth for absolutely zip.

So despite what the naysayers might say I have to think we've got a chance to go close in 2013 based on the talent we have reecruited. Forget about the kids. They are all works in progress although Nathan Wright and Brodie Murdoch might get some game time.

The recruits I'm talking about are Tom Lee and TDL who are battle hardened and ready to go. Scott Watters knows both of these blokes very well. He coached one of them in the WAFL and has had his eye on the other for some time.

I can't help thinking he also knows what they are capable of. Capabilities that Adelaide and the Swanees were unable to unleash. More importantly capabilities that no-one else thinks they have.

I reckon we are desperate for a couple of new blokes to really step up and dominate instead of always relying on the usual suspects like Lenny and Rooey and Nicky Del as well as a KPD which we don't have but that's another story.

I also reckon we are well and truly ready for some luck because in the words of a former Australian Prime Minister it's time.

[sasaint]

+1 to that. I would include Dunnell in that list as some with innate skills and with a bit of additional age which will allow him to step straight up.

[ace]

The bookies have St Kilda as 12th favourite for the flag.
They like our chances better than
the two start up clubs Greater Western Sydney and Gold Coast.
the sick culture of Port Adelaide,
the tough without skill or purpose approach of Michael Voss at Brisbane,
the mal administrations of Western Bulldogs and Melbourne.

Last year the club only just scaped into the top half at 9th, in a competition including 2 clubs manned by children.
This year the bookies have us sliding behind Carlton, Essendon and Richmond.

I hope they are wrong but when I look at the mid field that contains the aging Hayes and Dal Santo and then a heap of also rans I can understand why.
Armitage and Steven will try all day but for every bit of brilliance they display in most matches their opponents will display more.
And the relief for Armitage and Steven are ........ I can't even remember.
Whoever they are, our defence is going to be pelted with footballs.

[Dis Believer]

The bookies have St Kilda as 12th favourite for the flag.
They like our chances better than
the two start up clubs Greater Western Sydney and Gold Coast.
the sick culture of Port Adelaide,
the tough without skill or purpose approach of Michael Voss at Brisbane,
the mal administrations of Western Bulldogs and Melbourne.

Last year the club only just scaped into the top half at 9th, in a competition including 2 clubs manned by children.
This year the bookies have us sliding behind Carlton, Essendon and Richmond.

I hope they are wrong but when I look at the mid field that contains the aging Hayes and Dal Santo and then a heap of also rans I can understand why.
Armitage and Steven will try all day but for every bit of brilliance they display in most matches their opponents will display more.
And the relief for Armitage and Steven are ........ I can't even remember.
Whoever they are, our defence is going to be pelted with footballs.

Jeez, your house must be a fun joint.......

[bobmurray]

The bookies have St Kilda as 12th favourite for the flag.
They like our chances better than
the two start up clubs Greater Western Sydney and Gold Coast.
the sick culture of Port Adelaide,
the tough without skill or purpose approach of Michael Voss at Brisbane,
the mal administrations of Western Bulldogs and Melbourne.

Last year the club only just scaped into the top half at 9th, in a competition including 2 clubs manned by children.
This year the bookies have us sliding behind Carlton, Essendon and Richmond.

I hope they are wrong but when I look at the mid field that contains the aging Hayes and Dal Santo and then a heap of also rans I can understand why.
Armitage and Steven will try all day but for every bit of brilliance they display in most matches their opponents will display more.
And the relief for Armitage and Steven are ........ I can't even remember.
Whoever they are, our defence is going to be pelted with footballs.

There is some merit in a lot of what you wrote there....time will tell how we are travelling BUT we knew when Lyin fled that the list
needed an overhaul and it's started. I don't know if we are drafting champs or chumps but WA Inc is big on development so it'll be very
interesting to see what they can produce in the development factory.....

[cannavaro17]

Damien C- agred mate! I like to think about what we have and what they can do to get us where we need to be- as opposed to what we can't do. If no one goes backwards and we get more out of Steven, Armo & Sippos and Hickey & Lee come to the party... then why the hell not! Who would have said that Sydney could have won it last year! Carmon Saints!

[ace]

Since we were gifted in 2000, 2001, 2002 for being nearly the worst club in the competition yet again
1. Nick Riewoldt 2000,
2. Justin Koschitzke 2000,
2. Luke Ball 2001,
5. Xavier Clarke 2001,
13. (for Bary Hall) Nick Dal Santo 2001
1. Brendon Goddard 2002
and traded in
4. (for Darryl Wakelin) Aaron Hamill 2001
18. Fraser Gehrig 2001



St Kilda's top 20 draft picks have been the following star players
8. Raphael Clarke 2003
17. Andrew McQualter 2004
9. David Armitage 2006
9. Ben McEvoy 2007
13. Tom Lynch 2008

In the same time period we traded top 20 draft picks for the following super stars
17. Fergus Watts 2005
16. Andrew Lovett 2009
12. Tom Lee 2012
13. (for Brendon Goddard) Tom Hickey 2012


Does anyone see a pattern to the quality of players recruited with our top 20 picks for the years 2003 through to 2009.
All of them brownlow medal prospects maybe.
Why would you expect anything different now.

[slider]

Why would you expect anything different now.

Because i dont live in the past with my head up my butt.

[Wrote for Luck]

just rewatched the first game against carlscum from last season and this occured to me...

we probably won't miss Goddard that much. and between Ray and Gram, I would pick Ray every day of the week.

I make the Ray/Gram comparison because I reckon there was only one spot between them going forward.

also, that carlscum game was when Milera and Saad combined to give us a 'new look'. imo there are replacement type players and there are 'new look' type players.

another couple of guys similar to this are Markworth and Dunell (perhaps Newnes).

and if Hickey, Lee, Siposs etc... can hit the ground running next year, why couldn't we play finals? absolutely we can.

[SaintPav]

Since we were gifted in 2000, 2001, 2002 for being nearly the worst club in the competition yet again
1. Nick Riewoldt 2000,
2. Justin Koschitzke 2000,
2. Luke Ball 2001,
5. Xavier Clarke 2001,
13. (for Bary Hall) Nick Dal Santo 2001
1. Brendon Goddard 2002
and traded in
4. (for Darryl Wakelin) Aaron Hamill 2001
18. Fraser Gehrig 2001



St Kilda's top 20 draft picks have been the following star players
8. Raphael Clarke 2003
17. Andrew McQualter 2004
9. David Armitage 2006
9. Ben McEvoy 2007
13. Tom Lynch 2008

In the same time period we traded top 20 draft picks for the following super stars
17. Fergus Watts 2005
16. Andrew Lovett 2009
12. Tom Lee 2012
13. (for Brendon Goddard) Tom Hickey 2012


Does anyone see a pattern to the quality of players recruited with our top 20 picks for the years 2003 through to 2009.
All of them brownlow medal prospects maybe.
Why would you expect anything different now.

You forgot the 2002 Barry Brooks trade for pick 6 and 31.

[gringo]

I can't wait to see what Lee and TDL can do too. I don't care if we are down for a while as long as we are getting in some quality. Lee has some x factor and at his best TDL does too, both will be fun to watch. Recruiting is still a little bit about luck- melbourne's best recruit in the last few years was Jeremy Howe no where near a top pick. Saad is going to improve, Milera, Dunnel, Simpkin should all get better. Gwilt will get his touch back, we have back up rucks, competition for key forward roles etc. Should be plenty of entertainment at least.

[AnythingsPossibleSaints]

Why would you expect anything different now.

Because those in charge of our recruiting now are different from those we had for much of that time, especially the years under Peake, which look to have been a bit of a disaster.

For starters, we have Pelchan in charge of the whole thing, who is the one who has been largely credited with building Hawthorn's 2008 premiership list, as well as the team that they've had since then, which is considerably different to their 2008 team and which got back into a GF this year, plus apparently for helping to build Port Adelaide's 2004 premiership list.

Then we also have Elshaugh heading up our recruiting department and he is also extremely highly regarded in the industry, from what I've heard, as well as anyone else that we brought in last year.

Between them they managed to identify Saad and Milera last year and then managed to get them to us for a packet of chips, as well as then nabbing us Jack Newnes at 37, who impressed the club so much over his first preseason that he was in the senior side by about R2.

They managed to identify that Sam Dunell was worth picking up, after only playing 6 games in the VFL, coming from an Ammos background and the word was that the club were so impressed with how he started off this year that they would have liked to have had a look at him in the seniors from as early as about round 4/5.

They got us Darren Minchington with a pick in the rookie draft on the back of just half a season in the TAC Cup last year and he was another who burst out of the blocks this year at Sandy (before his hip injury mid season) and who the club (in particularly Scott Watters) apparently really rates, etc, so I don't think it's in any way unreasonable to feel confident about those they have picked up for us this year.

Tom Lee, in particular, looks like he's a bloody ripper and I think we'll look back at the deal that got us him in years to come and see that as a really great deal for us as well. Maybe even as good as the Saad, Milera and Ross for effectively just pick 20 last year. Hickey could also be well worth giving up pick 13 for, especially when you consider we also got two later picks upgraded as well as getting him, one of which we used to draft Spencer White, who has an enormous up-side.

I reckon our list is in very, very good hands. It would have been better if they'd managed to get us someone tall for FB, but other than that I've loved most of their work so far and maybe they have someone up their sleeves that is on the list already to play that role down back.

[cannavaro17]

Why would you expect anything different now.

Because those in charge of our recruiting now are different from those we had for much of that time, especially the years under Peake, which look to have been a bit of a disaster.

For starters, we have Pelchan in charge of the whole thing, who is the one who has been largely credited with building Hawthorn's 2008 premiership list, as well as the team that they've had since then, which is considerably different to their 2008 team and which got back into a GF this year, plus apparently for helping to build Port Adelaide's 2004 premiership list.

Then we also have Elshaugh heading up our recruiting department and he is also extremely highly regarded in the industry, from what I've heard, as well as anyone else that we brought in last year.

Between them they managed to identify Saad and Milera last year and then managed to get them to us for a packet of chips, as well as then nabbing us Jack Newnes at 37, who impressed the club so much over his first preseason that he was in the senior side by about R2.

They managed to identify that Sam Dunell was worth picking up, after only playing 6 games in the VFL, coming from an Ammos background and the word was that the club were so impressed with how he started off this year that they would have liked to have had a look at him in the seniors from as early as about round 4/5.

They got us Darren Minchington with a pick in the rookie draft on the back of just half a season in the TAC Cup last year and he was another who burst out of the blocks this year at Sandy (before his hip injury mid season) and who the club (in particularly Scott Watters) apparently really rates, etc, so I don't think it's in any way unreasonable to feel confident about those they have picked up for us this year.

Tom Lee, in particular, looks like he's a bloody ripper and I think we'll look back at the deal that got us him in years to come and see that as a really great deal for us as well. Maybe even as good as the Saad, Milera and Ross for effectively just pick 20 last year. Hickey could also be well worth giving up pick 13 for, especially when you consider we also got two later picks upgraded as well as getting him, one of which we used to draft Spencer White, who has an enormous up-side.

I reckon our list is in very, very good hands. It would have been better if they'd managed to get us someone tall for FB, but other than that I've loved most of their work so far and maybe they have someone up their sleeves that is on the list already to play that role down back.

+1

[matrix]

The bookies have St Kilda as 12th favourite for the flag.
They like our chances better than
the two start up clubs Greater Western Sydney and Gold Coast.
the sick culture of Port Adelaide,
the tough without skill or purpose approach of Michael Voss at Brisbane,
the mal administrations of Western Bulldogs and Melbourne.

Last year the club only just scaped into the top half at 9th, in a competition including 2 clubs manned by children.
This year the bookies have us sliding behind Carlton, Essendon and Richmond.

I hope they are wrong but when I look at the mid field that contains the aging Hayes and Dal Santo and then a heap of also rans I can understand why.
Armitage and Steven will try all day but for every bit of brilliance they display in most matches their opponents will display more.
And the relief for Armitage and Steven are ........ I can't even remember.
Whoever they are, our defence is going to be pelted with footballs.

Jeez, your house must be a fun joint.......

lol
yeah i thought the midfield wasnt that bad tbh
hayes still running around as good as he was 5 years ago
dal still the same
steven getting better

dunnell looks promising

cheer up ace
lol

[AnythingsPossibleSaints]

I do think our midfield is an area of slight concern though and will probably be an area we will hope to add to through free agency next year.

Some clubs talk about having as many as 10-12 high quality options that run through there, whereas we have Lenny, Dal, Joey, Armo, Jack and probably Ray (6 of them), but then you start wondering who is next (probably Gilbert and Schneider, who will be required on the wings, I imagine) and with Goddard gone and CJ seemingly on the outer, it is going to be very important for the likes of Ledger in particular and then Ross, Newnes and Curren to come on well this year and also for someone like Milera and/or Siposs to be able to make the transition to the wing.

Geary, with his phenomenal endurance, is another option that could play the tagging role CJ has previously played, I expect, but then we'd have to find someone to play his role down back, not so easy now that Gram, who played a similar role, is now gone (although Wright would be ideally suited to it in the long term).

Full back and midfield are clearly the no.1 priorities for next year's trade/free agency period, IMO, given that we have well and truly stocked up on forward options in the past couple of years.

[hayes66]

Why would you expect anything different now.

Because those in charge of our recruiting now are different from those we had for much of that time, especially the years under Peake, which look to have been a bit of a disaster.
I have a question? Why do you, when supporting the new administration, have to downgrade everything that went before?
What was a disaster, in getting, McEvoy, Steven, Simpkin, Stanley, Siposs, Ledger.?
Disappointing losing Cripps as I think he would of been reasonable.
Steven, Stanley, Siposs, Ledger and Simpkin were all taken late in drafts. We didn't have many early picks as we were plaing late in September. A few Grand Finals I think.
Yes there were mistakes made in trying to " top up" but that was done in an effort to win while the core group were at their peak.

[AnythingsPossibleSaints]

Why would you expect anything different now.

Because those in charge of our recruiting now are different from those we had for much of that time, especially the years under Peake, which look to have been a bit of a disaster.

I have a question? Why do you, when supporting the new administration, have to downgrade everything that went before?
What was a disaster, in getting, McEvoy, Steven, Simpkin, Stanley, Siposs, Ledger.?
Disappointing losing Cripps as I think he would of been reasonable.
Steven, Stanley, Siposs, Ledger and Simpkin were all taken late in drafts. We didn't have many early picks as we were plaing late in September. A few Grand Finals I think.
Yes there were mistakes made in trying to " top up" but that was done in an effort to win while the core group were at their peak.

I have an answer. I don't have to, hence my not doing so on this occasion.

As you may have noticed, I suggested that it was a "bit of a disaster", not a complete disaster and the parts that I consider to be disastrous, since you've asked, are mostly the fact that we have only one left on our list from the 2008 and 2009 national drafts combined. I read somewhere the other day that not only do we have no-one left from the 2009 national draft, but that all 10 that we picked up that year, whether it be from the national draft, PSD, rookie draft, or through trades, is still on our list, just 3 years later. I would suggest that that is a pretty bad year of trading and drafting.

It was far from all bad, as a result of those you named, but they are only 6, from 8 drafts (within the last 5 years) and that is well short of what most would consider a pass mark, I would imagine.

[hayes66]

Thank you for taking the time to responded to my question. You have clarified your viewpoint to some degree.
You do make an interesting point regards assessing drafts. I must admit I have difficulty in doing that. The reason being, I don't think all picks are the same value. For example, a lot of people will say Collingwood did exceptionally well selecting Pendlebury and Thomas. Which is true, but they were pick 2-5.
How does that compare to a club that has later picks that fail or are only GOP's?
With regards to rookies I always think they are a bonus if they come up. Yes, there are some good players that were originally rookies, but I would think the strike rate, for all clubs, would be low.
The thing I do like about what's happening at the saints now, is the strategy of getting numbers of players in. Saad and Milera for virtually one pick. Using the compo pick to get Hickey but in return getting an extra pick in the twenty's.
How well has the last few drafts been? In my opinion that will be accurately assessed overtime.

[Dr Spaceman]

All clubs must make a minimum of 3 selections at each National Draft.

If we got every selection 100% right every time, who the hell would we delist in order to make room on our list at the end of each season?

[borderbarry]

Doc we would have to delist the old blokes then, would'nt we.

[Dr Spaceman]

Doc we would have to delist the old blokes then, would'nt we.

But they would be good ol' boys.

[evo]

Doc we would have to delist the old blokes then, would'nt we.

But they would be good ol' boys.

And it would take approx.14 years to replace the entire side at 3 picks per draft.

[ShanghaiSaint]

The bookies have St Kilda as 12th favourite for the flag.

I wonder where the bookies had us start of 09?

[Zed]

I expect improvement from both jack Steven and armo - as both now have the belief that they belong at senior level. Simpkin and Saad will both improve. Big Mac still has some improvement left in him.

I would have expected Cripps to play about 10 - 15 games. I see TDL as his replacement. Newnes will be a beauty. His 2013 onfield output will be on par at least with what Gram would have delivered. BJ was a class act, but the shine had worn off - however we probably don't cover his loss with a single player - rather a mixture of players improving. For example, if Gilbert can recapture his confidence, Dunnell and Siposs continue their improvement, and Stanley delivers on some of his promise.

And we have some genuine mysteries - milera could be a class finisher a cut above BJ in his prime. Lee could the 3rd tall forward that releases the pressure on Roo.

For the first time in about 10 years I can see a solid crop coming through, we just need a couple of them to pleasntly surprise us.

[Zed]

I expect improvement from both jack Steven and armo - as both now have the belief that they belong at senior level. Simpkin and Saad will both improve. Big Mac still has some improvement left in him.

I would have expected Cripps to play about 10 - 15 games. I see TDL as his replacement. Newnes will be a beauty. His 2013 onfield output will be on par at least with what Gram would have delivered. BJ was a class act, but the shine had worn off - however we probably don't cover his loss with a single player - rather a mixture of players improving. For example, if Gilbert can recapture his confidence, Dunnell and Siposs continue their improvement, and Stanley delivers on some of his promise.

And we have some genuine mysteries - milera could be a class finisher a cut above BJ in his prime. Lee could the 3rd tall forward that releases the pressure on Roo.

For the first time in about 10 years I can see a solid crop coming through, we just need a couple of them to pleasntly surprise us.