Another "Super Draft"!

[White Winmar]

I'm amused by all this talk of a "super draft". I've worked as a consultant in the area for 14 years and let me tell you there is a "rating cycle" that each draft goes through. First of all, in order to generate excitement amongst the clubs, supporters and potential members, the idea is floated that this particular draft is packed with super-talented players, a "once in a lifetime" occurrence. The media is a willing player in this, as it used to be a traditionally slow time for their bread and butter sport, the AFL. Speculation and coverage of the prospective draft pool has given them plenty of fodder to fill the pages with until the real stuff starts again.

Secondly, there is a cooling off period just prior to the draft, when recruiters realise their reputations are on the line, and expectations are dampened in response to the oncoming reality. That is, this draft is the same as every other one, with a normal distribution of talent across the board. There are a few standouts, plenty who fall into the average category, and the outliers and speculative picks. This model doesn't vary much over time.

Thirdly, after the hoopla of the draft dies down and the absurdly inflated expectations of what we've picked up, morphs into the reality that very few players selected will have any significant impact in the coming season, the crafty recruiters cover their asses by contending that it was just "an ordinary draft" and that next year's will be better. In that way, any poor decisions can be rationalised by the argument that the talent pool wasn't that great in the first place.

The fact is that if you can develop 3 decent, regular senior players out of any draft, you've done well. Just look how our 2010 draft choices are shaping up. Most people seem to agree that we did well, but the fact remains, Jamie Cripps, our first choice, looks like walking, Sam Crocker, our second pick, has been delisted, which leaves Ledger and Siposs. While Arryn looks like being a beauty, Tommy has struggled a bit and the jury is still out as to whether he'll make it at all. Some even wanted to trade him back to WA, which if it had've eventuated, would've left us with one survivor of the 2010 draft.

The only way we'll know for sure is when we look back in a few years and see the results of our labour. The reason I feel optimistic about our future is that we have a shrewd and proven operator in the Pelican overseeing our list and the fact that while we have made some errors over the journey, we've done at least as well the other clubs, bar perhaps the Swines, who have an unfair advantage, the filth, Geelong and the Dorks, all of whom are far better resourced than we are.

So before we get too excited about all the trade rumours, the super draft and all the other media generated hype surrounding it, I urge you all to take a deep breath, have a cup of tea and brace yourself for more of the same we get every year.

[suss]

What is your opinion on the Lee / pick 12 exchange?

[Munga]

Top post WW

[dragit]

Some years are clearly stronger than others though…

Some years we see 4-5 players from the top 10 that go on to be A grade players, while other years there are lucky to be 2.

2005 - Murphy, Thomas, Kennedy, Pendlebury, Ryder, Clark

2006 - Gibbs, Selwood, N.Brown (would be a stretch)

[Dr Spaceman]

Some years are clearly stronger than others though…

Some years we see 4-5 players from the top 10 that go on to be A grade players, while other years there are lucky to be 2.

2005 - Murphy, Thomas, Kennedy, Pendlebury, Ryder, Clark

2006 - Gibbs, Selwood, N.Brown (would be a stretch)

True. But when people talk of super drafts some people start to feel there's 50 or so champs to be picked up.

Even if the first 10 are all "Juddies" that doesn't really help us with pick 13 likely to be our first selection.

Just need to keep it all in perspective.

[dragit]

Just need to keep it all in perspective.

No way, I'm going to lose my freaking mind if we don't draft 4 X 200+ gamers this year.

What would be a good stat is total games played from each draft… anyone?

[White Winmar]

What is your opinion on the Lee / pick 12 exchange?

I think we have done well here. Tom was always considered to be very talented, but he clearly lacked maturity the first time around. Matt Rendell was recently quoted as saying he wishes the Crows had persevered with him, such was his potential. The shock of being delisted and the chance to develop in the WAFL was exactly what he needed. Now that he's done his apprenticeship elsewhere, we are in a good position to reap the rewards. As I said, he has the natural ability, all he needs is to get his head right and he's capable of succeeding Roo. That's how highly I rate him on natural ability alone.

In my opinion, he was certain to go in the first round, so to secure him before the draft and to have two other decent picks thrown in, looks like a very good deal to me. All things being equal, he should play a fair bit of senior football for us next year as well. The Pelican has done well. Having said all of that, he'll probably break his leg in the NAB Cup!

[magnifisaint]

What is your opinion on the Lee / pick 12 exchange?

I think we have done well here. Tom was always considered to be very talented, but he clearly lacked maturity the first time around. Matt Rendell was recently quoted as saying he wishes the Crows had persevered with him, such was his potential. The shock of being delisted and the chance to develop in the WAFL was exactly what he needed. Now that he's done his apprenticeship elsewhere, we are in a good position to reap the rewards. As I said, he has the natural ability, all he needs is to get his head right and he's capable of succeeding Roo. That's how highly I rate him on natural ability alone.

In my opinion, he was certain to go in the first round, so to secure him before the draft and to have two other decent picks thrown in, looks like a very good deal to me. All things being equal, he should play a fair bit of senior football for us next year as well. The Pelican has done well. Having said all of that, he'll probably break his leg in the NAB Cup!

bulls***!

[SinCitySainter]

Given our luck I fully expect him to spontaneously combust within 2 minutes of his first start after kicking 10 3 games straight for Sandy.

[bobmurray]

Good Post

I have mentioned a few times that this wasn't a Super Draft.

All i've heard the "EXPERTS" say is that all picks in the first round should net a club a talented player...

We won't know for 2 years how true that expert statement was...

[Legendary]

Have a look at the 2003 draft. Worst. Draft. Ever.

[White Winmar]

Have a look at the 2003 draft. Worst. Draft. Ever.

Indeed Legendary. Love the comic book guy reference as well. I was amused to read the hype around that draft at the time. Kepler Bradley and Kane Tenace were going to be superstars. Raph Clarke was widely touted as being a superior player to his brother and many had him going top 3. There were plenty of references to it being a "bonanza" for the clubs, such was the supposed depth.

In reality, half of the clubs' first round picks were delisted within 4 years, and people generally considered it to be one of the worst drafts ever. Interestingly though, to mount the opposing argument, 7 of the top ten picks are still in the system and 2003 produced the only No.1 pick to ever win the Brownlow, in Adam Cooney. Apart from Raph Clarke, we also picked up Sam Fisher with pick 55 (What a beauty) and we traded picks 23 for Gram and 39 for Guerra. Not bad! Zac Dawson also went in this draft at 41 to Hawthorn and Michael Rischitelli at 61 to the Brions. Stanton went at 13 to Essendon. There are plenty of others I could mention who are still in the system.

So while the perception is that it was a shocker, the truth is, over a decade, it isn't significantly better of worse than most of the rest. Just like all the others!

[jays]

this year there is a lot of great kids going around

[ctqs]

Someone from the club told me in August that this year's draft would be ok, but not the super draft people considered it to be initially. Still, our recruiting dept under Pelchan have done ok for us so far, so I'll back them to get it right until proven otherwise.

[bobmurray]

Someone from the club told me in August that this year's draft would be ok, but not the super draft people considered it to be initially. Still, our recruiting dept under Pelchan have done ok for us so far, so I'll back them to get it right until proven otherwise.

I'm sure it was Rendell who peddled the Super Draft bull back when he worked for Adelaide, probably around the time he imploded....

[desertsaint]

Best draft since 2012...easily!

[gringo]

The draft is very front heavy with some really strong players from most states coming through. To me there will be some really good gets at the start of the second round even. The first 10 picks will be really hard to guess because there is a kind of even talent spread outside Whitfield there doesn't appear to be too many absolute stand outs.

There are some handy later picks too all expected to probably go second to third round-

Nathan Hrovat is classy but small
Spencer White- a better Kosi but could be incredible....... http://www.afl.com.au/news/newsarticle/ ... fault.aspx
Colquhoun- Classy rebounding defender with huge upside
Nick Rodda- huge FB massive unit

[wally]

It still poses the question,do you recruit the best to fill a hole ,play him to fit a spot forever,or recruit the best talent ,
not play him ,he cracks the its and leaves.
It might mean paying overs initially but cheap long term.

[vacuous space]

I'm amused by all this talk of a "super draft".

Has anybody credible actually called it a superdraft?

[plugger66]

Hahn or Carlton?

[White Winmar]

I'm amused by all this talk of a "super draft".

Has anybody credible actually called it a superdraft?

I think your point is well made, VS. I think there is a perception that this year's draft will have more "depth", because GC and GWS don't get to take the cream off the top, as in the past two years. I've heard it variously described in the media as being more talent laden than ever and I'm positive I've heard and seen it described as "Super" at least a couple of times. The real question is, as you rightly point out, did this come from a credible source? When considering the general quality of sports journalists in this country, the field is a very narrow one.

[vacuous space]

The real question is, as you rightly point out, did this come from a credible source?

I'm not sure why we're talking about it unless somebody specific stated it. Lots of crazy people say lots of crazy things. Wellingham went for pick 17. It's not a superdraft.

[Dis Believer]

The real question is, as you rightly point out, did this come from a credible source?

I'm not sure why we're talking about it unless somebody specific stated it. Lots of crazy people say lots of crazy things. Wellingham went for pick 17. It's not a superdraft.

I fail to see how WCE's stupidity reflects on the quality of the draft???

[vacuous space]

I fail to see how WCE's stupidity reflects on the quality of the draft???

Time will tell how stupid they are, but one of the best resourced clubs in the comp basically said a depth mid is worth more than a top-20 pick in this draft. Melbourne dealt 20+ for Dawes after dealing their entire Scully comp for a guy who can't play next year. Gold Coast preferred Jack Martin to any player available in this draft bar Whitfield. Teams don't seem desperate to keep their first picks. Compare that to 2008 when nobody dealt a top-20 pick at all. I think plenty of teams are making statements about this draft at the trade table.

[noob]

Although I wouldn't mind trading a player for one of GWS 12 or 14th picks