This is what pick 13 gets us

[bergholt]

2011: Taylor Adams, GWS - 15 games (15.0 per year)
2010: Seb Tape, GCS - 23 games (11.5 per year)
2009: Daniel Talia, Adelaide - 32 games (10.7 per year)
2008: Tom Lynch, St Kilda - 12 games (3.0 per year)
2007: Brad Ebert, West Coast - 98 games (19.6 per year)
2006: Jack Riewoldt, Richmond - 112 games (18.7 per year)
2005: Shannon Hurn, West Coast - 122 games (17.4 per year)
2004: Matthew Bate, Melbourne - 102 games (12.8 per year)
2003: Brent Stanton, Essendon - 182 games (20.2 per year)
2002: Byron Schammer, Fremantle - 129 games (14.3 per year)
2001: Nick Dal Santo, St Kilda - 238 games (21.6 per year)
2000: Ash McGrath, Brisbane - 188 games (15.7 per year)
1999: Robert Murphy, Footscray - 230 games (17.7 per year)
1998: Chris Lamb, Melbourne - 21 games (4.2 per year)
1997: Callum Chambers, West Coast - 66 games (7.3 per year)
1996: Tom Gilligan, Adelaide - 3 games (1.5 per year)
1995: Brad Rowe, Fremantle - 8 games (8.0 per year)
1994: Chris Hemley, St Kilda - 1 game (1.0 per year)
1993: David Ugrinic, Geelong - 0 games
1992: Andrew McKay, Carlton - 244 games (22.2 per year)
1991: Shane Crawford, Hawthorn - 305 games (17.9 per year)

[plugger66]

That has been an unbelievably lucky pick.

[bergholt]

Some pretty solid picks in there!

I rate all of Crawford, McKay, Murphy, Dal Santo and Stanton very highly. The next tier is McGrath, Hurn, Riewoldt, Ebert and Talia, all very solid players and some who could wind up better than that. Chambers, Schammer and Bate all played a few games and were OK but never cemented a place at AFL level. Most of the rest were failures, with the caveat that Tape and Adams (and Lynch?) are still too early in their careers to make a call on.

So that's 21 drafts of which 10 are players you'd be very happy to have in the side - that suggests roughly a 50% strike rate for pick 13.

However, since Chris Lamb in 1998, there have been 13 drafts and very few true failures, so I reckon the strike rate is a fair bit better than that.

[bergholt]

And here's a side made up only of these pick 13s (and Todd Ridley who I think was 13 in 1990):

FB: McGrath, Lamb, Tape
HB: Talia, McKay, Hurn
C: Ebert, Dal Santo, Murphy
HF: Schammer, Lynch, Bate
FF: Ridley, Riewoldt, Chambers
R: Gilligan, Stanton, Crawford
IC: Ugrinic, Adams, Rowe, Hemley

Pretty solid defence, not an amazing forward line but a great midfield despite the lack of ruck depth.

[gringo]

Schammer was under rated just had an unreliable body. He could have been a gun. Not a bad pick throughout the years.

[st_Trav_ofWA]

Schammer was quality until illness struck he had some virus that wouldn't go away and he lost like 20kgs he came back from it and got back to a decent weight but he was never the same

[sippo]

Schammer couldnt kick when he was well, and coming back even in the WAFL, still cant kick. I see Schammer and i think Peake

[saintbrat]

SEN are suggesting Caddy for Pick 13
but given radio talk last night suggesting he DOES NOT want to come to the saints - where does that stand....

[plugger66]

SEN are suggesting Caddy for Pick 13
but given radio talk last night suggesting he DOES NOT want to come to the saints - where does that stand....

Then he doesnt come. The player must agree as well as the clubs.

[joffaboy]

SEN are suggesting Caddy for Pick 13
but given radio talk last night suggesting he DOES NOT want to come to the saints - where does that stand....

Hudson on SEN said Caddy wants to come to the Saints and the pick will get it done.

Also nice backhanded about TEAM FIRST from the Saints

[SainterK]

Just heard Pelchen talk on AFL radio saying we don't even know what our compensation is until we've done all our deals in the coming weeks.

[battye]

Just heard Pelchen talk on AFL radio saying we don't even know what our compensation is until we've done all our deals in the coming weeks.

Fantastic. Sounds like we are utterly unprepared.

[bergholt]

Just heard Pelchen talk on AFL radio saying we don't even know what our compensation is until we've done all our deals in the coming weeks.

Fantastic. Sounds like we are utterly unprepared.

What? The compensation can't be calculated until all free agents are completed, in and out. If we take a free agent then the (presumably) mid-first round pick is reduced. I'm not sure that's being "utterly unprepared".

[bozza1980]

Just heard Pelchen talk on AFL radio saying we don't even know what our compensation is until we've done all our deals in the coming weeks.

Fantastic. Sounds like we are utterly unprepared.

Ofcourse they have no idea, they don't know if they will sign a free agent from another club.

If this is to happen our compensation changes.

Explain, how they are to be "prepared" when there is an awful lot of water to pass under the bridge.

No doubt, they know what they will receive if this our sole involvemement in free agency.

[St Ick]

SEN are suggesting Caddy for Pick 13
but given radio talk last night suggesting he DOES NOT want to come to the saints - where does that stand....

Hudson on SEN said Caddy wants to come to the Saints and the pick will get it done.

Also nice backhanded about TEAM FIRST from the Saints

Yes, heard this too. I believe pick 13 is slightly too much, but a pick in the 20s is too much for Hickey. Still holding hope that we can pull off the Caddy, Hickey, Toy trade somehow.

Something spectacular would want to happen now we have lost our best most promising player. Now Roo looks a fool for suggesting captaincy and having him in the bridal party.

Scotty Watters seems genuinely shattered on SEN, jeez he says the right things doesn't he. GO Scotty!

[battye]

Okay, fair enough. When I read it I thought the club weren't sure which band he was considered to be in - didn't consider other free agents.

Having said that, I hope we don't waste our time on any other free agents. Goddard was the only one of any quality on the market, I'd prefer to see us invest in quality player in the draft with our compensation first round pick.

[bergholt]

Having said that, I hope we don't waste our time on any other free agents. Goddard was the only one of any quality on the market, I'd prefer to see us invest in quality player in the draft with our compensation first round pick.

At the rate the other free agents are going, I don't think there'll be any left by the end of the week! Not sure they'll need the whole month of free agency.

[mad saint guy]

Pick 13 has a very good strike rate over the past decade or so. If we can't get Caddy then I'd be quite happy to hang on to both 12 and 13 and see if we can't snare a gun tall forward and midfielder for the next 12 years. We need some genuine talent for the new core of the St Kilda footy club that you're much more likely to find with high draft picks than anything else. We might find some handy role players and flankers through late picks and low-cost trades, but we really need to find the new star tall forward and some gun midfielders.

[Munga]

So the bombers could trade away their first 3 picks (after the Daniher pick) and we'd be forced to take whatever ceap is left over?
If Daniher is judged to be a first round pick, and so is Goddard, then it should be up to the bombers to trade to send a first round pick our way. It would be BS if we get shafted with anything less than a first round pick, and BS if the bombers get all these guns for 1 pick.

[mad saint guy]

So the bombers could trade away their first 3 picks (after the Daniher pick) and we'd be forced to take whatever ceap is left over?
If Daniher is judged to be a first round pick, and so is Goddard, then it should be up to the bombers to trade to send a first round pick our way. It would be BS if we get shafted with anything less than a first round pick, and BS if the bombers get all these guns for 1 pick.

???

What does trading have to do with Goddard? He has accepted Essendon's offer and St Kilda isn't going to match it. He has moved via free agency.

[8856brother]

Surely with 12 AND 13 we will get at least one gun. Even we couldn't stuff it up. Could we?

[Buckets]

So the bombers could trade away their first 3 picks (after the Daniher pick) and we'd be forced to take whatever ceap is left over?
If Daniher is judged to be a first round pick, and so is Goddard, then it should be up to the bombers to trade to send a first round pick our way. It would be BS if we get shafted with anything less than a first round pick, and BS if the bombers get all these guns for 1 pick.

Ummmm we at this stage will have 2 first round draft picks both before the bombers. They will get Daniher and will have to wait till Round 2 for their first technical pick of the draft!

[noob]

So the bombers could trade away their first 3 picks (after the Daniher pick) and we'd be forced to take whatever ceap is left over?
If Daniher is judged to be a first round pick, and so is Goddard, then it should be up to the bombers to trade to send a first round pick our way. It would be BS if we get shafted with anything less than a first round pick, and BS if the bombers get all these guns for 1 pick.

Ummmm we at this stage will have 2 first round draft picks both before the bombers. They will get Daniher and will have to wait till Round 2 for their first technical pick of the draft!

To be fair though Daniher will be a good player for them.

[Munga]

We'll have 2 first round picks from where?
We have 12, bombers have to use 13 on Daniher yeah?

[Buckets]

We'll have 2 first round picks from where?
We have 12, bombers have to use 13 on Daniher yeah?

Unless we get a free agent ourselves we will get pick 13. Bombers will have to use their first pick which is 10? Which for Daniher seems fair. They then wait until nearly pick 30 for their next one.