Ifs, buts and maybes

[Thinline]

Here's an interesting take on the year if it panned out slightly differently (apologies for formatting glitches...).

For mine it shows how well Watters mananged change and that luck always plays a part.

http://australianfootball.com/articles/ ... sue+13/168


There were 23 AFL games in 2012 that were decided by a goal or less. Gigs takes a look at what would have happened if one more goal had been kicked in those encounters.

What a difference a goal makes

Yes, we know there's no point speculating about "what might have been" but, just for fun, we're going to do it anyway. In this year's home and away season there were 23 games decided by a goal or less. What if the losing side in each of those games had kicked one final goal? As it turns out, the impact would have been significant for quite a few clubs, in particular Ross Lyon's teams, old and new. Here's how the ladder at the end of the home and away season would have panned out.

Team Actual wins "What if" wins Actual position "What if" position
HAWTHORN 17 20 1st 1st
NORTH MELBOURNE 14 16 8th 2nd
SYDNEY 16 15.5 3rd 3rd
GEELONG 15 15.5 6th 4th
ST KILDA 12 14.5 9th 5th
ADELAIDE 17 14 2nd 6th
WEST COAST 15 14 5th 7th
COLLINGWOOD 16 13.5 4th 8th
Richmond 10.5 13.5 12th 9th
Essendon 11 13.5 11th 10th
Fremantle 14 13 7th 11th
Carlton 11 10 10th 12th
Brisbane 10 9 13th 13th
Western Bulldogs 5 5 15th 14th
Port Adelaide 5.5 3.5 14th 15th
Melbourne 4 3.5 16th 16th
Gold Coast 3 2 17th 17th
GWS 2 2 18th 18th

What can we glean from this "Sliding Doors" scenario? Quite a few things. Here are some of them:

Seven of the top eight teams would still have made the finals, albeit in significantly different positions for most.

The team that would have missed out on the eight is Fremantle, Ross Lyon's new side. The team that would have claimed their spot is St Kilda, Ross Lyon's old side.

The match-up everyone was hoping for, Hawthorn v Geelong, would have occurred in week 1 of the finals, with the possibility of the two sides meeting up again on Grand Final day.

Geelong would have had a double-chance.

Adelaide, who in reality finished level with Hawthorn on 17 wins, would have finished six games behind Hawthorn, and played West Coast in a knock-out final at home.

Hawthorn would still have finished on top, but four games clear of any other side.

Rather than finishing 8th and facing West Coast in Perth in a knock-out final in week 1 of the finals, North Melbourne would have finished 2nd on the ladder, with a double-chance and a home week 1 final against Sydney.

Collingwood would have scraped into the eight on percentage and played St Kilda first-up, with the two sides having played a draw just five weeks earlier.

But, as interesting and exciting as all of those outcomes would have been, there can be absolutely no doubt that the BEST thing about that scenario is that Richmond would have finished 9th.

[dragit]

Interesting article, though I feel like we are drifting into Richmond territory if we start clinging to "what ifs' just to scrape into the 8…

With the draw we had this year, if we were any good at all, we should not have to of looked to luck to make the finals…

Prelim 2009 - we were lucky, Qualifying final 2010 - we were lucky, both leading to grand final appearances, glad we had the "luck" then instead this year where there are clearly 5-6 better sides than us.

Doggies fans must still rue that prelim, like we do the GF's…

[CURLY]

Just think about how much that cheat Margetts changed the season. Due to him cheating Collingwood finished forth on percentage from the Eagles giving them a home final Saturday night. Massive ramifications due to a umpire having an agenda against Milne.

[gringo]

The revised ladder is about what I would have thought was around what I would have imagined pre season except I would have found a spot for Freo and North wouldn't have been as strong.

[oh when the]

We lost to sides that finished below us,starting with round 1, always playing catch up footy after that.