Is it over now?

[Jacks Back]

Something may fall back our way.

I doubt it. We would have to be close to being the most unluckiest team on the planet.

[paddy]

now that Freo has beaten WCE, the 8 is pretty much out of our sights....

prob only way we can get in is if essendon drop out... even then, it seems as if it will be freo and nth who make it

sad night...

gallant effort, but just couldn't get there

[3rd generation saint]

Think we got two chances now, Buckley's and none, and Buckley is probably depositing some money into Geichen's Swiss bank account now for the absolute screw job we got tonight.
Sadly, like always, we will simply bend over and take it.

[Teflon]

we need Freo or Nth to lose 2.

We know they play each other once
Freo play Crows at AAMI next round.....later they play Nth at Etihad (where they should not have beaten us)

Nth have to beat Bombers next week (whowe hope will be fired up after a loss to Crows), then Coll the Fremantle......

Ofcourse, we have to win EVERY game now.....unlikely but given our only real obstacle is Cats and its Etihad.........we are a chance...

Theres really 2 games left for us.....................Geel and Blues......win them and we are in imo.

[SainterJ]

You would like to think that after the publicity tonight's umpires will get, we might look forward to better decisions in the upcoming weeks. The Club needs to throw a right royal tantrum over tonight's game. I really think they need to go over the game with a fine tooth comb and highlight all of the errors and omissions. Absolutely disgraceful tonight. If my perception of tonight's performance is relatively accurate the game needs to be looked at, at the highest level and some tough questions asked.

[happy feet]

Yep, you better believe it. The AFL is run in the interest of the powerful clubs like Collongwood, Essendon, Hawthorn and now the interstate teams. The Saints along with the Doggies, North, Melbourne & Tigers have no hope. It is not in the interest of the AFL to them succeed. Many Saints fans I know are now starting to think they will not witness a premiership in their lifetime and I am one of them. Lets look at a few facts.

1. Last nights pathetic umpiring display, not just the last decision but all nights. Did we get a free kick in our forward line? I cannot remember.

2. Wellingham only getting 3 weeks for breaking someones jaw. No wonder Ziebell and the Roos are unhappy.

3. The stacked draw that has given the Pies a distinct advantage over every other team in the lst three years.

4. Eddie M negotiating Heath Shaws punishment to have him available for the finals.

5. Havings teams with the home ground at the MCG where the GF is played. All should be rotated through the two Melbourne venues.

Lets face it, the whole situation is rigged. The AFL will want less teams is Melbourne and they are going to get it by making life impossible for the less strong clubs. That is, its over as far as I am concerned. I love the Club but enough of the bulls*** system that is rigged.

[bergholt]

About 25% chance of making the finals from here.

a bit less, i reckon. we need to win all our games, and despite two easy ones we've got a 50% chance of beating carlton and a 25% chance of beating geelong, which makes for a 12.5% chance of getting there.

why do we need to win all of them?

- essendon's got plenty of winnable games, they're always a chance against the pies and blues, should beat richmond and could beat north. so they should end the season on 52 or 56.
- north and freo have similar draws from here on. one of them should end the season on 52, the other on 48, depending on the result of their game.

so if we beat geelong and win the other two games, then after the others have played but before saints v blues in the last round it would be:

7: essendon 52 - 56
8: fremantle/north melbourne 52
9: st kilda 48
10: north melbourne/fremantle 48
11: carlton 40 - 44

beat the blues and we go eighth on percentage, maybe even seventh. this is our best bet - but that means we have to have beaten geelong. so to make the finals we need to win all four.

lose to geelong, as seems more likely, and it looks like this:

7: essendon 52 - 56
8: fremantle/north melbourne 52
9: north melbourne/fremantle 48
10: st kilda 44
11: carlton 40 - 44

at that point even if we beat carlton we go ninth, and if we lose it's tenth or even eleventh. eleventh, in a season where we've been competitive and ended up with a percentage above 120, seems a bit unjust. but it would give us some pretty solid draft picks - first pick would be number 10. i don't mind that, so if we lose to geelong we really should probably lose to carlton as well.

but yeah, overall i reckon we need to win em all, and we won't.

[To the top]

There is always next week and there is always next season - and seasons after that.

Consequently you are always looking forward.

The real problem we have from my perspective is the "structure" of our list

You can start by listing the players we have who are over 191 cm - the bare minimum height to hold down a key position in defence and under the height to hold down a key forward position or to ruck.

Then you can look at the age profile of our list, where the concern is the age of our elite core and where our period of success and the recruiting of list players instead of rolling the dice with drafting is producing a consequence.

Yes, we have some kids who have played at junior levels to a standard which has seen them drafted by St Kilda but those players have been secured by picks in the 40's, 50's, 60's and 70's so there is a wing and a prayer element in play here.

Given the structure of our list in regards players at 191 cm or over, I was surprised to see a couple let go at the end of last season and particularly as we focussed on the drafting of mid-sized players (recognising that potential KPP's do not fall off trees at picks 40 plus).

It is also the reason why I have presented that, of our elite core, I would have broached the trade of Milne to GSW for a first round pick.

This was premised on the basis that Milne would have seen Sheedy's interest on a range of promotional issues (which is Sheedy's forte) and that Milne was the most expendable (and most tradeable by pandering to Sheedy and his characteristics) of our elite core - based on would you offer up Hayes as the genuine mid-fielder he is or Milne as a specialist forward pocket in a team which I assess can no longer afford to deploy a specialist forward pocket because the grooming of our next mid-field, whilst we still have our 28 year old plus core to shield them and educate them, is the absolute requirement.

There may never be another Milne and we will live with that, but there has to be another Hayes, or Dal Santo, or Montagna et al.

Steven and Armitage are developing well - but they will need support and that is the agenda, along with our dearth of ruck and key position options.

So, on with the future!

[saber]

I reckon without some sort of divine intervention (hey we're the saints after all!), we've run our race for this year.

Looking at the upcoming draw for us, and based on our current form:
Vs Melbourne: Win
Vs Geelong: Loss
Vs GWS: Win
Vs Carlton: Win

3 wins, 1 loss.

Now look at North:

Vs Essendon: Win
Vs Collingwood: Loss
Vs Fremantle: Win
Vs GWS: Win

3 wins, 1 loss

And Freo
Vs Adeliade: Loss
Vs Richmond: Win
Vs North Melbourne: Loss
Vs Melbourne: Win

2 wins, 2 loses

As we're 2 games outside the 8, and based off the above results, we won't catch North/Freo in the race for the 8.

I wonder what mad monday will be like? Been a while since the boys have had one so early in the year!

[Iceman234]

"What are you gonna do f**khead?" was Milney's response to an obvious taunt of some sort from Harry O. It appeared to be a retaliation to a threat rather than an R word comment.

The fifty was weak and soft but unfortunately it was there - S.18.1.g of the Rules - (g) engages in any other conduct for which a Free Kick would
ordinarily be awarded, in accordance with 16.7 (b); where 16.7 (b) states...

(b) Where a Field Umpire has awarded a Free Kick or a Mark to a Player
and before disposing of the football a Player from the opposition
Team engages in conduct for which a Free Kick would ordinarily
be awarded, then the resultant Free Kick shall be taken where the
offence occurred, or a Fifty-Metre Penalty shall be awarded to the
Player with the original Free Kick

which unfortunately related to S.15.10.1 (d)

(d) a Free Kick to be awarded against a Player who uses
abusive, insulting, threatening or obscene language
and/or gesture;

I guess.

Soft.

[tweedaletomanning]

Something may fall back our way.

I doubt it. We would have to be close to being the most unluckiest team on the planet.

And in the last 45 years, what's changed?

[plugger66]

Its over because we dont have the form to win 4 let alone 2 sides losing two. An average to good year which could have been a good to great year with a tall FB and a fair dinkum forward come ruckman.

[Con Gorozidis]

I just had a quick cross check of draws. A draw last night what not have been any difference to a loss.
We can definitely make the 8 of we win all 4. Downside is we havent be able to win 3 in a row all year let alone 4 - so it would take a lot for us to do that.
Pretty obvious to say - if we lose to the cats it is all over red rover for 2012.

[SaintPav]

Agree with the above but in our favour is that we play the Dees and then three in a row at Etihad and we play pretty well there. Geelong will be hard but I have this weird feeling that next week will not be a walk in the park.

[bergholt]

Its over because we dont have the form to win 4 let alone 2 sides losing two. An average to good year which could have been a good to great year with a tall FB and a fair dinkum forward come ruckman.

...which is exactly why kosi isn't going anywhere next year, unfortunately, though surely he drops down behind rhys, when and if rhys is ever fit.

that said, i'm not sure this year would have been any worse without him. gilbo would probably have played in the ruck a bit, which isn't a good thing but is probably about as good as kosi.

[plugger66]

Essendon look like winning. It is now over. Not much you can do with 4 games though. 2 that look certain wins and probably a loss to the Cats. By the last game both sides may forfeit. Our last game will probably be on a Sunday now as both sides cant play finals.

[bergholt]

Essendon look like winning. It is now over. Not much you can do with 4 games though. 2 that look certain wins and probably a loss to the Cats. By the last game both sides may forfeit. Our last game will probably be on a Sunday now as both sides cant play finals.

nah, we're not in competition with essendon, just with north and freo, so today's result has no bearing. if we win all four we're still in - but we won't win all four so it doesn't matter.

[plugger66]

Essendon look like winning. It is now over. Not much you can do with 4 games though. 2 that look certain wins and probably a loss to the Cats. By the last game both sides may forfeit. Our last game will probably be on a Sunday now as both sides cant play finals.

nah, we're not in competition with essendon, just with north and freo, so today's result has no bearing. if we win all four we're still in - but we won't win all four so it doesn't matter.

Essendon had the hardest draw though if they lost today. North will win 3 and that ends it. We needed at least North and Essendon to be only 2 games behind.

[SaintPav]

Crows are only down by 22 points and it's not even half time.

[saintsRrising]

Essendon lost by the way.

[SainterK]

Essendon look like winning. It is now over.

Early.

[plugger66]

Essendon lost by the way.

I have picked 9 wins for the year. I was sure as soon as i said they were over the line they would lose. Need any other sides to lose next week?

[bobmurray]

Honest question.

I'm not sure.

Results didn't favour us this weekend.

I'd love to feel that second half effort sees the Saints somehow make it, because kids like Simpkin, Geary, Steven, Armitage would be served so well to play some more finals.

Have to keep on keeping on until it is no longer possible, just because that's how you build culture with the kids, show them that you won't die wondering.

It's been OVER for awhile

[SaintPav]

technically, we can still make it.

[bobmurray]

technically, we can still make it.