Be careful New Zealand

[meher baba]

Re Economists: I think it was JK Galbraith who said that economists were only allowed to make forecasts in order to give astrologers less of a bad name. But Saul Eslake certainly isn't one of the worst going around.

Re AFL team in Tassie. Possibly should have happened in the 1990s. Didn't. Probably never will now. The north-south divide down here poisons everything, including football.

Re games in NZ: appalling idea. Worse than the decision to create the Suns, and that's saying something. It's a mindless pipe dream. Some expat Aussies will go to see it. So what? We played some games in the Emirates a few years back, what came of that? The Rugby League played a State of Origin game in the US a decade or so back. What did that achieve?

[SaintPav]

As to your first point, I agree that Tasmania is unlikely to get an AFL team soon. That's my point! The die has been cast ... I won't see a Tasmanian team in my lifetime. The quality league is poorer for that.

As to your second point, I am comfortable with his qualifications. There are dimmer lights than him trumpeting on the issue.(excuse the mixed metaphors )

point is Tasmania dont just automatically deserve an AFL team. they have saturation point at 6 games already. And with the pathetic petty north-south rivalry in Tasmania, the team would never get the whole state behind it.

Saul Estlake is a con artist like all economists. They get it wrong all the time, and really nobody cares if you are comfortable or not. I am sure a professional organisation like the AFL have their own "experts" on these subjects, or do you think they just decided on GWS and GC on a whim?

or at least economists who work for a bank..

GWS and GC wasn't made on a whim. They had all their consultants who are just as bad as economists crunch the numbers and come up with a recommendation. It's a calculated risk but could still turn out to be a giant money pit for th AFL. Expansion ventures fail all the time and and this is no different. Time will tell.

TV rights would be based on number of games and teams in the competition. TV rights earned would be a big KPI in AD and Gils performance plan and bonus payments. The AFL TV rights is a huge bubble and they won't get that sort of money in the next deal.

[Con Gorozidis]

i can see much change in the next 10 years.
the economy was doing much better when those teams were conceived of and planning started foe the expansion (sometime in 2008 pre GFC most likely).
Since then tv revenues have dropped and sponsorships are harder to come by. the AFL will find itself doing it tougher to keep the 2 new clubs alive as well as facing some melbourne clubs that are seriously struggling on and off field - and then port power...
i seriously cant see nz being anything but a complete failure (and i have been very bullish about gc and gws and still think they were good ideas).
so dunno. afl will just be in consolidation mode for the next decade.
tassies best hope is to lure the kangaroos permanently. the roos didnt elect to to go to the gc (they should have). but they might take take tassie is if it gets offered....
p.s brayshaw is a wanker

[magnifisaint]

i can see much change in the next 10 years.
the economy was doing much better when those teams were conceived of and planning started foe the expansion (sometime in 2008 pre GFC most likely).
Since then tv revenues have dropped and sponsorships are harder to come by. the AFL will find itself doing it tougher to keep the 2 new clubs alive as well as facing some melbourne clubs that are seriously struggling on and off field - and then port power...
i seriously cant see nz being anything but a complete failure (and i have been very bullish about gc and gws and still think they were good ideas).
so dunno. afl will just be in consolidation mode for the next decade.
tassies best hope is to lure the kangaroos permanently. the roos didnt elect to to go to the gc (they should have). but they might take take tassie is if it gets offered....
p.s brayshaw is a wanker

Maybe he has a lot to wank

[saintspremiers]

Brayshaw is a complete douchebag agree.

He "saved" Norf by creating massive debt and no hope rather than relocating to the GC. Is now costing the AFL (and hence all clubs) mega millions to prop up.

Well done Jimmy. Now f&$k off!

As for NZ try it for a few years if the money is right. If it is we can't lose.

[citywest]

Demetriou is only interested in himself.
If we had a proper CEO then the next expansion of the AFL should be in 2016 (Tasmania) and 2017 (3rd team in WA). That would make a total of 20 teams in the AFL.

* Each team plays each other once = 19 rounds..........
The following year whichever team you played at home (in rounds 1 to 19), the previous year you play away.
Round 20 is always determined by the ladder as at the end of round 19 and home ground advantage goes to the
higher placed team.

* Round 20 would be 1 vs 11, 2 vs 12, 3 vs 13, 4 vs 14, 5 vs 15, 6 vs 16, 7 vs 17, 8 vs 18, 9 vs 19 & 10 vs 20.

That makes 20 rounds with 10 games per round which = 200 home and away games.
Currently we have 22 rounds with 9 games per round which = 198 home and away games.

Totally fair and totally equitable.

What does everyone think?

[loris]

Being a Tasmanian myself, I totally understand where you are coming from. Its a disgrace. I am still trying to understand why we have a second team in Qld and NSW when they have little interest in AFL footy. I don't care if they are the growth areas in Australia, they are not AFL minded. The AFL is still propping up Sydney, so why would GWS be any different. Lions supporters have dropped off. Hardly anyone goes to the Suns games and yet what do the AFL do for the original sides like St Kilda, Footscray, Melbourne and North? The whole thing is a joke.

I also don't understand why our memberships have dropped off when we have had so much success in recent times. It leaves no alternative to the club but to explore opportunities else where, even if it is NZ. Is no use the fans complaining when they are not even prepared to go and see Lenny Hayes 250th, buy a membership or cheer our side.

If St Kilda supporters want a strong Club, they need to go to the footy when its cold, put their hands in their pockets. Stop bagging the cheer squad and help them, Get a bit of passion and make Ethihad a feared place to visit just like we did at Moorabbin.

+!.................................... Your final two paras summ it all up about our 'fair weather supporters'............... i'm afraid that indoor venue has made them a lot of armchair type supporters at times..........very wimpish lot.

[Moorabbin Man]

I'd rather the Saints play some games in the regional areas rather than NZ! I'd greatly enjoy going to a regional game anywhere in Victoria at a 'suburban' ground, I think North have a visionary idea there. What on earth is the point of NZ?

[BigMart]

Us going to Tassie has no substance.... That's why it failed!

The post is very simple

Tasmania shafted by the AFL

StK shafted Tasmania

The Apple isle has given plenty to both, what has it got in return??

A couple of games it pays 16million for..... I know you supported the move to bail on Tassie so you could see 17 not 15 games a year because your a selfish prick..

Me, I would gladly sacrifice two games, so the taswegiens got to see there beloved saints (and stk are easily the heaviest supported club in Tas) and we continued to attract further support there

[bigred]

We should never, ever, ever be selling home games.

Ever.

[BigMart]

Take it from a Tasmanian..... Joffa you've got little idea about what Tasmanians think or feel, let alone deserve about footy..

Did GC or GWS 'deserve' a footy team

Don't pretend to know about the north vs south rivalry
Happens on Intra-State event......

We as Northerners get behind any state team...... Do yo honestly think I don't support the Tassie Tigers because they play out of Bellrieve??

Nothing Tasmanians love more than the green, yellow and red jumper with a map and a T on it...... We would wage war on the 'mainlanders'

[gringo]

I thought this was a thread about Troy Schwartz being a man not a sheep.

[asiu]

.i'd go home for that war.
... if it's one thing we do unite over ,
its an invasion of know nothing big noting mainlanders.

[joffaboy]

Take it from a Tasmanian..... Joffa you've got little idea about what Tasmanians think or feel, let alone deserve about footy..

Well you probably dont speak for each of the 400k Tasmanians.

BM you dont know my relationship with Tasmania and what i know about it, so please dont assume.

Did GC or GWS 'deserve' a footy team

based on what criteria? Under the AFL's criteria obviously much more deserving than a footballing backwater.

Don't pretend to know about the north vs south rivalry

More assumptions. You are clueless with what I know or dont. You are not the speaker for all of Tasmania

Meher Baba who lives in Tasmania (you DONT BRW) said the exact same thing. He actually said the rivally posions everything in tasmania including football.

Prefer to listen to someone who actually lives there than some trumped up blowhard who makes a goose of himself in assuming I dont have any connections wit Tasmania

We as Northerners get behind any state team...... Do yo honestly think I don't support the Tassie Tigers because they play out of Bellrieve??

Couldn't care less whom you support, you may be one of the few in Tasmania who dont buy into the North South crap. But I will tell you for a fact, after working in numerous areas in both the North and South of Tasmania, the rivallry is prevelant in everything.

i was amazed that an insular tiny population would be so petty. Less than the population of the Western Suburbs of Melbourne and carry on like it is the North South civil war of the USA.

Nothing Tasmanians love more than the green, yellow and red jumper with a map and a T on it...... We would wage war on the 'mainlanders'

Yeah - and the pettiness and b!tching would start the moment the club was announced that it was in Launceston not Hobart.

It is a footballing backwater and woudl fail miserably. It can barely sustain 6 AFL games a year from proper AFL teams. A Tassie team would be millions of sunk costs with no future benefit for the AFL.

[joffaboy]

.i'd go home for that war.
... if it's one thing we do unite over ,
its an invasion of know nothing big noting mainlanders.

You a tasmanian gaz?

Always knew there was something amiss with you

Was in Launceston last November visiting with my wife (friends and work collegues).

Absolutely love Launceston and the Tamar, have done a lot of work b/w there and Devonport over the years.

[gringo]

The reasoning I heard was that the TV rights in Tassie don't contribute enough due to population. The AFL looked at future growth projections and saw that GC and GWS are the fastest grown geographic areas in Oz. On attendance alone Tassie would be a winner in comparison, (they truck along in bus loads to a museum about vaginas) and there isn't much else to compete with in winter. I'd still be doing outdoors stuff in GC and GWS won't ever have anyone show for games. They couldn't even get the ball back when it went under the signage.

[asiu]

... yea , a boy of the south.
big crayfish , big cliffs , big trees , big chill factor 'n big hearts.

at the end of the day , taswegians are a good people.
(the northeners are a bit , how do i say it respectfully ,
ummmmm , 6 toed , but they mean well)

[joffaboy]

... yea , a boy of the south.
big crayfish , big cliffs , big trees , big chill factor 'n big hearts.

at the end of the day , taswegians are a good people.
(the northeners are a bit , how do i say it respectfully ,
ummmmm , 6 toed , but they mean well)

lol - love Tassie - a truly beautiful mainly unspoilt place, fully of Tasmanians though

[Dave McNamara]

Don't pretend to know about the north vs south rivalry

...Meher Baba who lives in Tasmania (you DONT BRW) said the exact same thing. He actually said the rivally posions everything in tasmania including football. Prefer to listen to someone who actually lives there than some trumped up blowhard who makes a goose of himself in assuming I dont have any connections wit Tasmania

Hi JB, you are correct in that (as far as I know) Sainter K does not live in Tassie. But you are crediting her with quotes that aren't hers.

[BigMart]

Surely you realize I grew up in Tassie.... NW Coast... Played footy/cricket there.... My brother still does, my entire family and In Law family do also.... We visit Home a number of times every year... And own a house in Ulverstone, which I plan on returning to...

I know a fair bit about the Tasmanian culture..... I reckon more than a mainlanders that hears about it.....

We are proud of our state.

7000 at Sloda???
We got more than that to Watch Fev at Bouyer!

Backwater..... Seriously...

The footballing backwater that delivered.....

Baldock, Hart, Stewart, Hudson, Croswell, Greening, Howell, Lawrence, Johnson, Jones, Roach, Breen, Lynch, Nash, C.Robertson, Gale, Gale, Armstrong, Wright, Febey, Lovell, McCarthy, N Reiwoldt, Lyon, Nietz, J.Riewoldt, Shanahan, Creswell, Rawlings, Green, Richardson, Manson, Barwick, Young, Fletcher, Birchall, Johnson, J.Rawlings, R.Robertson, Minto Connell, Atkins, Grant, McPherson, Pritchard, Paul Hudson, Williams.....

Should I go on?????

There are many more........ Footballing backwater my arse!

[Ice Wolf]

The only way Tasmain gets a team is if they acquire an AFL licence.

As the AFL wont be releasing any new licences for a long time they'll have to acquire one of the existing licences.

Of the existing 18 licences the following would not be available West Coast Eagles, Fremantle (owned by the WAFC); Adelaide, Port Adelaide (owned by the SANFL); South Melbourne, Brisbane Bears, Gold Coast, Greater Western Sydney (owned by the AFL)

The only licenceses that could be acquired are those owned by the 10 victorian clubs.

The only way to acquire these would be by purchasing enough memberships to be able to force and win a relocation vote.

Of the 10 victorian clubs the most likely candidate to be able to achieve this is North Melbourne.

So the quickest way for Tasmania to get a club would be to get at least 50k Tasmanians to buy a North Melbourne membership that includes voting rights and vote on a move to Tasmania.

[taz]

So the quickest way for Tasmania to get a club would be to get at least 50k Tasmanians to buy a North Melbourne membership that includes voting rights and vote on a move to Tasmania.

On this logic I suspect Tasmania has poured enough cash into the Hawks to own them outright!

[desertsaint]

How much will north cost me to buy outright?
I'll gift them to tasmania. Give em a horrible green, red, and yellow guernsey too. Rename them 'wineglass bay roodevils'.
(I was going to buy the saints, but none of you lightweights would attend home games in Alice).

[felix]

My take on the reason their was initially a parochial divide between the north and the south of tas was
That in the early settler days the north of the state was the primary production centre of the state and the south was the administrative centre of the state . The hard earned wages of the north were taxed to provide for admin and a growing bureaucracy in the south, the north was doing very well , lots of mansions and tea parties but they grew very resentful of the increasing taxes to keep the south going . Property owners of the north vs the bureaucrats of the south.

[St Lenny]

My take on the reason their was initially a parochial divide between the north and the south of tas was
That in the early settler days the north of the state was the primary production centre of the state and the south was the administrative centre of the state . The hard earned wages of the north were taxed to provide for admin and a growing bureaucracy in the south, the north was doing very well , lots of mansions and tea parties but they grew very resentful of the increasing taxes to keep the south going . Property owners of the north vs the bureaucrats of the south.

So nothings changed pretty much