Moneyball

[hungry for a premiership]

Has anyone seen this movie???

I just watched it and honestly, the parallels between the Cleveland Athletics 2002 season and St.Kilda's '09 season are unbelievable.

They, like us, were/are a team that doesn't have the money as the more powerful clubs.

They had a defensive strategy and there playing list was made up mostly of role players.

They won 20 games straight but didn't win the last game of the season.

The only difference is that at the end of the movie the GM (Brad Pitt) stays loyal to his team and doesn't take the big money offer by the Boston Redsox.

Good movie, I recommend it.

[matrix]

yeah saw it
actually wasnt a bad movie
worth watching

[doppler effect]

the parallels between the Cleveland Athletics 2002 season and St.Kilda's '09 season are unbelievable.

Oakland Athletics.

It's a brilliant film though. 4 and a half stars.

[Spinner]

Great film, just watched it on the weekend.

The parallels are more obvious with Sydneys recruiting. Paul Roos is a big believer.


Recruits such as Mumford, Kennedy, McGlynn.... and unfortunately Tommy Walsh are examples.

Players that were undervalued at their clubs. Mumford is a great example... He wasnt getting played because of the long line in front of him. Same as Walsh.

[PaytonPlace]

Only problem was Billy Beane wrote the book

And then everyone copied his methods

Bye Bye A's as a competitive force...

http://articles.sfgate.com/2012-01-04/s ... illy-beane

[defacto]

i was going to post this two days ago when i finished watching it. couldnt agree more. the likeness is uncanny. i read an article not long ago that said sydney based their drafting and list management off of the book. it got them a flag by 1 point.

i think its unquestionable that lyon has taken that philosphy to the saints. the problem is he didnt exactly keep the salary cap down. some players were paid very very well others not so well.

movie just depressed me when i was thinking of 09. key difference. lyon went for the money.

i think we've evolved past where lyon is at though. baseball has evolved past where moneyball was at.

[busso mick]

I remember a few years back Lyon mentioning Moneyball when he was asked about our recycled pickups.

[70s sainter]

I was the same. All I could think of while watching it was the saints almost perfect season of 09 playing with a bunch of misfits ( saints third tier players) , only to go down in the final. When Pitt was too scared to leave the dressing room to watch, it brought up some of the feelings from the g.f . I was actually a bit depressed at the end of the movie. .... Anyway , looking forward to 12 and smashing freo round 4.

[70s sainter]

I was the same. All I could think of while watching it was the saints almost perfect season of 09 playing with a bunch of misfits ( saints third tier players) , only to go down in the final. When Pitt was too scared to leave the dressing room to watch, it brought up some of the feelings from the g.f . I was actually a bit depressed at the end of the movie. .... Anyway , looking forward to 12 and smashing freo round 4.

[The Redeemer]

I remember a few years back Lyon mentioning Moneyball when he was asked about our recycled pickups.

It is super in theory and Sydney have done it so well for so long in using draft choices but seemingly paying unders in hindsight.

[bobmurray]

I've got that movie...i just haven't watched it yet....

[saintsRrising]

the problem is he didnt exactly keep the salary cap down

I do not follow your logic on this point.

ALL AFL teams have to pay their players within a tight band. There is a minimum and maximum, and while I do not know the current amount that band only allows a variance of about 10%.

That is a tiny variance, and the minimum was brought in after Fitzroy tried to stay in existence by paying very low salaries.

That meant letting very good, but expensive players go and playing a lot of younger and/or ordinary players and becoming a shocking team due to it.

This upper and lower combo salary cap makes the AFL an unique competition.

[B W and R all over]

http://articles.sfgate.com/2012-01-04/s ... illy-beane

"I don't leave for clear skies as soon as I start seeing the clouds. I keep thinking something will get better."

Well there's one major difference between Lyon and Beane.

[The OtherThommo]

Only problem was Billy Beane wrote the book

And then everyone copied his methods

Bye Bye A's as a competitive force...

http://articles.sfgate.com/2012-01-04/s ... illy-beane

The book was written by Michael Lewis, who first came to prominence with Liars' Poker, a book about Wall Street, in the late 80's (he resigned from a Wall Street investment bank to write it). He's also written Blind Side (the basis of the film with Bullock) and The Big Short, about the GFC, and a swag of other books.

Terrific author. Multiple qualifications, including art history and economics. Has worked in art and as a bond trader (among other things). A very diverse thinker which, when you read him, stands out.

[awesome_days]

Good movie, great book, while the main point of finding undervalued players is good, it doesnt apply as easily to AFL.

1) Afl season is too small statistically, I think MLB is over 100 game season, where statistical anomalies cant exist, ie the best team will win

2) The salary cap doesnt allow for huge inequality between teams

3) Baseball is a 2D game. The batter and the pitcher are the only 2 players in control at any time This is what allows for such "perfect" statistics. AFL being a 3D game doesnt allow for the statistical perfection.

4) Baseball has a fluid trading market

If moneyball existed we would be:
- drafting Fev, proven goalscorer, cheap
- would look at more 21 yo players instead of 18 as we have more history on them
- we would consistently sell off overvalued marquee players, Jason Gram would have been traded following the Geelong GF at an inflated price.

Another book, Soccernomics is quite similar but for soccer, I would highly recommend it.

[saintsRrising]

If moneyball existed we would be:
- drafting Fev, proven goalscorer, cheap
.

Though the issue with Fev is not just his football ability...... but the disruption he causes to the club.

Baseball because of the type of game it is is more suited to a "pure" moneyball approach. However as all the baseball clubs know the strategy now, it's value to gain an edge is lost.

With AFL the lesson is to look for "value". Not in terms of the pure statistical approach of Moneyball but none the less the message is to look in all competitions for "value".

Now "value" for Saints includes improving what we are weak in....footskills and pace. Pelchen this year, and the Saints last year are doing this. Getting this in a value way we can see with Saad and Milera. Whether we actually achive this we will know ina season or two.

Lyon's value early on was different....but it was not all about role, which is what nay focus on and expound the perception that Lyon only gained GOPs that could playa role. Schneider is a very talented player....Lovett was (though had other issues!!!)......Ray was highly rated...and Peake had had his moments. ....and Gardiner certainly had star qualities.

The last year of Lyon's reign saw a change in recruiting thrust....as well as dare I say more able recruiting (and about time too).



Drafting is now more than ever about "value"....and not simply picking the best kids. Good kids are firmly part of the value, equation, but only part.

Our drafting this year is firmly of the "value" model with even some of our kids having an extra year or two in their tank.

[I Love Peter Kiel]

This was a brilliant film.
Yes, I know MLB's totally different to AFL, but like previous posters the 'almost' perfect season had a bittersweet quality...too much like '09 for a Saints supporter!