OUR FINALS ROAD - Looks really bloody tough

SainterK · Post: # 1133031Post **SainterK** » Wed 07 Sep 2011 7:50pm

I'm an optimist, but I am thinking this week is going to be tough?

They are in good form, games are usually tight and low scoring.

Seems Saints fans are pretty confident?

3rd generation saint · Wed 07 Sep 2011 9:28pm

I've been thinking about this a lot, so here are some sobering facts.
No team has ever won 4 finals in a row.
The closest any one has got to it was Collingwood in 1980 and Essendon in 1983.
Both teams, in the old Final 5 format, won their way through to the Grand Final winning the Elimination, Ist Semi and Prelim.
However, both got absolutely toweled up in the Grand Final.
Since the current final 8 system was adopted in 2000, only two teams have made it through to the prelim, Hawthorn in 01, and Collingwood 07.
Both lost.
The nearest precedent of someone coming from no where to win a flag that I can find happened in 1969 and 1998.
In 1969, Richmond just scrapped into the then final 4 and looked certain to be eliminated in the 1st Semi, they thrashed Geelong by over 100 points, then mauled Collingwood and ran away with the flag beating Carlton.
However they only won 3 and had a weeks rest after winning the 1st Semi.
1998 Adelaide finished 5th, but in those days 4th played 5th in the first week of the finals, Adelaide was thrashed by Melbourne, but lived to fight another day.
They then, clawed out a win on a muddy SCG the following week against Sydney, then thrashed the Bulldogs in the prelim (what the Bulldogs losing a prelim, how typical).
They then beat North in GF because North couldn't buy a goal in 1st half that they dominated and the game should have been over at halftime.
SO there some history that portrays how difficult it is going to be.
Someone will do it one day, hopefully 2011 might be that year, but, if it is to happen, St.Kilda needs a hell of a lot of something that it just doesn't seem to get, Good Luck.

Rosco · Post: # 1133074Post **Rosco** » Wed 07 Sep 2011 9:49pm

3rd generation saint wrote:St.Kilda needs a hell of a lot of something that it just doesn't seem to get, Good Luck.

a hell of a lot of good luck our way, some bad luck our opponents way, and roo's knee to wake up.

Rosco · Post: # 1133077Post **Rosco** » Wed 07 Sep 2011 9:54pm

markp wrote:Yep, I hear ya, and it's maybe largely irrational, but I think we need the cats to end the filth for us, as they've shown they're able (in an epic and bruising encounter, of course!), I also think the eagles can and may very well beat them this weekend... and I'd rather our chances against the eagles over there than the filth here.... we'd likely lease a plane and fly back at low altitude and all that too.

Also, I'd rather the eagles win the flag than cats, or either of them than the filth to even make the gf.

But at this stage I'll be very happy to beat the swans!

imagine the hoopla if the filth lost to the eagles - it would be awesome. but realistically, it's not going to happen and i would much rather collingwood lose when they don't have a double chance up their sleeve. if they lose to the eagles they will beat carlton/essendon in a very scary way.

Sainternist · Wed 07 Sep 2011 10:02pm

It would be nothing short of miraculous for us to make the GF.

I reckon if we could get as far as a Preliminary, we can walk away with our heads help pretty high.

I actually can't see us being humiliated by a Geelong or Filth, if we get to play on the top two. RL's style of game doesn't permit an opposition to kick a high score. I mean, how teams scored more than 100 points in a game against us this year? Once again, our defense proved to be extremely misely.

However, losing to the Swines on Saturday would almost prove to be a distrastrous way to the end the season.

Life Long Saint · Wed 07 Sep 2011 11:34pm

perfectionist wrote:
Life Long Saint wrote:Not surprising...

To win the flag, you need to beat three of the top four teams.

Even when you finish in the top 4 that is your equation.
Actually, if you finish in the top 4, then you may only need to beat one top four team. For instance, if West Coast beats Collingwood, Collingwood would then play the winner of Carlton and Essendon. If they win that, then they would need to beat another top four team in the PF (the winner of Geelong and Hawthorn). If they win that, they could play another 5 to 8 team which has won its three games, in the Grand Final. In other words - us!

Name any year that has happened with the current format of the finals!

St. Luke · Post: # 1133123Post **St. Luke** » Thu 08 Sep 2011 12:25am

Loved the post Austinn!!

I'm not so sure West Coast won't give the Pies a run for their money. Collingwood could have played themselves out of a bit of form last week. Regardless of what they say, or how much some believed they were foxing, you don't humiliate your own club by posting a record loss against another club! No bloody way!

markinUSA · Post: # 1133136Post **markinUSA** » Thu 08 Sep 2011 7:38am

We (players and fans) have got to combine hope, belief, optimism, skill, mental toughness, luck, and good fortune. Given that, anything is possible!

stevie · Post: # 1133142Post **stevie** » Thu 08 Sep 2011 8:13am

3rd generation saint wrote:I've been thinking about this a lot, so here are some sobering facts.
No team has ever won 4 finals in a row.
The closest any one has got to it was Collingwood in 1980 and Essendon in 1983.
Both teams, in the old Final 5 format, won their way through to the Grand Final winning the Elimination, Ist Semi and Prelim.
However, both got absolutely toweled up in the Grand Final.
Since the current final 8 system was adopted in 2000, only two teams have made it through to the prelim, Hawthorn in 01, and Collingwood 07.
Both lost.
The nearest precedent of someone coming from no where to win a flag that I can find happened in 1969 and 1998.
In 1969, Richmond just scrapped into the then final 4 and looked certain to be eliminated in the 1st Semi, they thrashed Geelong by over 100 points, then mauled Collingwood and ran away with the flag beating Carlton.
However they only won 3 and had a weeks rest after winning the 1st Semi.
1998 Adelaide finished 5th, but in those days 4th played 5th in the first week of the finals, Adelaide was thrashed by Melbourne, but lived to fight another day.
They then, clawed out a win on a muddy SCG the following week against Sydney, then thrashed the Bulldogs in the prelim (what the Bulldogs losing a prelim, how typical).
They then beat North in GF because North couldn't buy a goal in 1st half that they dominated and the game should have been over at halftime.
SO there some history that portrays how difficult it is going to be.
Someone will do it one day, hopefully 2011 might be that year, but, if it is to happen, St.Kilda needs a hell of a lot of something that it just doesn't seem to get, Good Luck.

As has been pointed out Shytney won the flag in 05 after losing the first week
And I just realised so did wet toast in 06...

Thinline · Post: # 1133147Post **Thinline** » Thu 08 Sep 2011 8:40am

Sydney will be an immense struggle. I can't think beyond it. Amazed others can. All power to you of course, but I'm stuck on this weekend's midfield battle and our fickle clearance abilities and their midfield grinding machine. Can't get further than that.

St. Luke · Post: # 1133199Post **St. Luke** » Thu 08 Sep 2011 10:59am

Thinline wrote:Sydney will be an immense struggle. I can't think beyond it. Amazed others can. All power to you of course, but I'm stuck on this weekend's midfield battle and our fickle clearance abilities and their midfield grinding machine. Can't get further than that.

I can't help but look forward and wonder where to from there. But of course I totally agree. This Saturday night presents us with a massive hurdle to overcome. The Swans are certainly up and about.

Goodes needs to be shut out of the game for us to be a chance. The guy is a freak!

SainterK · Post: # 1133209Post **SainterK** » Thu 08 Sep 2011 11:20am

Thinline wrote:Sydney will be an immense struggle. I can't think beyond it. Amazed others can. All power to you of course, but I'm stuck on this weekend's midfield battle and our fickle clearance abilities and their midfield grinding machine. Can't get further than that.

Yep.

I reckon I'm going to get a few more grey hairs before this one is over.

SainterK · Post: # 1133753Post **SainterK** » Fri 09 Sep 2011 2:58pm

Wow, things really going wrong for the Pies.

Heard whispers yesterday that Ben Reid did his hamstring at training, MMM now reporting that he has injured his groin and in serious doubt v WCE.

He is so important against the WCE talls.

I don't like to hear of any injuries, but to miss out on September with something like an injury during training would be very upsetting for the young guy.

Injuries play such a part in a teams story.

mr six o'clock · Fri 09 Sep 2011 3:06pm

its simple ; win 4 games = flag

plugger66 · Post: # 1133764Post **plugger66** » Fri 09 Sep 2011 3:35pm

SainterK wrote:Wow, things really going wrong for the Pies.

Heard whispers yesterday that Ben Reid did his hamstring at training, MMM now reporting that he has injured his groin and in serious doubt v WCE.

He is so important against the WCE talls.

I don't like to hear of any injuries, but to miss out on September with something like an injury during training would be very upsetting for the young guy.

Injuries play such a part in a teams story.

Apart from the Reid injury what else is going wrong?

Leo.J · Post: # 1133768Post **Leo.J** » Fri 09 Sep 2011 3:40pm

Getting beaten by 96 points, players being suspended and under done, captain under an injury cloud as is their ruckman.

Not much else apart from that.

Rosco · Post: # 1133771Post **Rosco** » Fri 09 Sep 2011 3:45pm

without reid their backline looks a bit shaky. harry o doesn't appear to like to play on big fwds, heath shaw has no match fitness, maxwell has no match fitness and a questionable thumb, davis is back from a hammy twinge (perhaps rested), tarrant has a questionable ankle from last week (i think), and leigh brown (named at CHF) might need to go back to cover the backline but may also need split the ruck duties with jolly who hasn't appeared right over the past few weeks. yes, plenty of speculation there but i'd much rather be bringing daniel kerr into my side (as wcoast are) than have those worries.

plugger66 · Post: # 1133772Post **plugger66** » Fri 09 Sep 2011 3:46pm

Leo.J wrote:Getting beaten by 96 points, players being suspended and under done, captain under an injury cloud as is their ruckman.

Not much else apart from that.

Getting beaten. Who cares. Captain injured. They just replace him if he isnt fit as he isnt a star. Missing Thomas doesnt help but they just replace him. Lets face it they win tomorrow. It is that simple and if they do none of these things will be an issue by prelim time. If they lose it may be a different matter. They wont though.

SainterK · Post: # 1133777Post **SainterK** » Fri 09 Sep 2011 3:59pm

plugger66 wrote:
SainterK wrote:Wow, things really going wrong for the Pies.

Heard whispers yesterday that Ben Reid did his hamstring at training, MMM now reporting that he has injured his groin and in serious doubt v WCE.

He is so important against the WCE talls.

I don't like to hear of any injuries, but to miss out on September with something like an injury during training would be very upsetting for the young guy.

Injuries play such a part in a teams story.
Apart from the Reid injury what else is going wrong?

stevie · Post: # 1133795Post **stevie** » Fri 09 Sep 2011 4:41pm

Reminds me of 'Life Of Brian'...

'Well, apart from the roads, aqueducts, sanitation and the wine, what have the Romans ever done for us?'

'Brought peace?'

'Oh, peace? SHUT UP!!!

degruch · Post: # 1133800Post **degruch** » Fri 09 Sep 2011 5:05pm

To get to a GF we have to beat...a lot of teams we've beaten before. Of course it's no walk in the park, but I doubt any other team is thinking it's a soda.

Remember what happened to the Collingwood v Geelong 2010 GF? Yes, that's right, we pushed a listless Geelong aside and ploughed on, almost completely ruining the party. I have not sought The Oracle, but I think Collingwood will win by 40 points this week, on way to meeting us at a prelim.

Buckets · Post: # 1134288Post **Buckets** » Sat 10 Sep 2011 7:08pm

3rd generation saint wrote:I've been thinking about this a lot, so here are some sobering facts.
No team has ever won 4 finals in a row.
The closest any one has got to it was Collingwood in 1980 and Essendon in 1983.
Both teams, in the old Final 5 format, won their way through to the Grand Final winning the Elimination, Ist Semi and Prelim.
However, both got absolutely toweled up in the Grand Final.
Since the current final 8 system was adopted in 2000, only two teams have made it through to the prelim, Hawthorn in 01, and Collingwood 07.
Both lost.
The nearest precedent of someone coming from no where to win a flag that I can find happened in 1969 and 1998.
In 1969, Richmond just scrapped into the then final 4 and looked certain to be eliminated in the 1st Semi, they thrashed Geelong by over 100 points, then mauled Collingwood and ran away with the flag beating Carlton.
However they only won 3 and had a weeks rest after winning the 1st Semi.
1998 Adelaide finished 5th, but in those days 4th played 5th in the first week of the finals, Adelaide was thrashed by Melbourne, but lived to fight another day.
They then, clawed out a win on a muddy SCG the following week against Sydney, then thrashed the Bulldogs in the prelim (what the Bulldogs losing a prelim, how typical).
They then beat North in GF because North couldn't buy a goal in 1st half that they dominated and the game should have been over at halftime.
SO there some history that portrays how difficult it is going to be.
Someone will do it one day, hopefully 2011 might be that year, but, if it is to happen, St.Kilda needs a hell of a lot of something that it just doesn't seem to get, Good Luck.

Brisbane 03
Sydney 05
West Coast 06

All won 4 finals to take the Cup.
Hard but not impossible