Pre- season --- all going to plan!

[St.Carl]

As an eternal optomist I am taking a very different view of this year's 'home and away' series.

My thinking goes like this.
Each year when it comes to finals, coaches and commentators regularly remind us that it is a whole new ball game. The season is consigned to history. The only influence is a) getting to the finals and b) determining who you play in the first week and what pathway you have to the GF

The home and away games are effectively the pre-season lead up to the finals.

The usual strategy is to try and win every game in the H&A to get to the highest position on the ladder. To do this most teams bust their guts early in the season, running out of steam as the season progresses and, more importantly showing their hand (in terms of game plans and strategy).

Cadel Evans' performance in the Tour de France is a timely reminder that in an endurance event it is not about bursting out early and getting ahead of the pack but staying with the peleton and using the power when it can be most effective. The only stage that he won was about the second last - the one that sent the killer blow.

So, where does this leave us? Has Rossy developed a killer strategy?

The game against West Coast showed that we have several strings to our bow. We can come out and play attacking footy, getting a score on the board. We can also lock the game down and maybe while not scoring (!) keep a lid on the opposition. And then do what has to be done to clinch the victory.

As one of the commentators said against Gold Coast, St Kilda was playing the sort of footy that you need to play in finals. Not pretty or flamboyant scoring but solid and controlled. Have we quietly slipped into that mode of play when it counts for most?

If we keep travelling as we are at the moment we should finish in the lower part of the 8. Historically that is not promising. I think that something like 22 of the last 24 preliminary finalists have come from the top 4. However, this is where teams have busted their gut for the whole season to sneak into the 8 and don't have much of a show at getting much further.

I reckon that if my strategy is real, then we are coming into the finals on a roll and prepared for the greater intensity of the finals. Also, I think that there is a slight advantage in launching from the lower part of the 8. It is likely that if in the top 4, we would end up playing against Geelong and Collingwood, and play one of them twice - a tough few weeks.

If things go to [my] plan - the first week we play a team that is (hopefully) lucky to still be in the 8, win that and then play the loser to either Collingwood or Geelong (and hopefully bruised by the encounter), we then have either pies or cats in a prelim and then the other in the GF - all very simple!! But, I reckon it is still an easier path than from the top 4.

The other advantage is that we have not really exposed the game plan options as we would if going flat out all year. On this basis, I am happy for next weeks game against Collingwood to be treated as a practice match where we can throw a few different things around. The result itself is not important - more imprtant to see how they respond (lets play with their minds!!).

OK, maybe I'm deluded but I like to think that Ross has come up with a fiendish strategy. I hope that I am right!

Enjoy the rest of the pre-season and bring on the real contest!

GO SAINTS!

[Junction Oval]

It would be nice to think that our situation has been so well planned by the maestro, Ross, but that's not reality.

The next 4 games will tell us where we are really at - Freo, Pies, Swans, North. The Swans will be our "absolute must win" match for 6th place.

Our best scenario is to finish 6th, which means a game against 3rd - likely to be the Hawks, or possibly West Coast. If we finish 7th or 8th, it's "game over, " I am afraid.

[plugger66]

It would be nice to think that our situation has been so well planned by the maestro, Ross, but that's not reality.

The next 4 games will tell us where we are really at - Freo, Pies, Swans, North. The Swans will be our "absolute must win" match for 6th place.

Our best scenario is to finish 6th, which means a game against 3rd - likely to be the Hawks, or possibly West Coast. If we finish 7th or 8th, it's "game over, " I am afraid.

6th plays 7th.

[Junction Oval]

Junction Oval wrote:
It would be nice to think that our situation has been so well planned by the maestro, Ross, but that's not reality.

The next 4 games will tell us where we are really at - Freo, Pies, Swans, North. The Swans will be our "absolute must win" match for 6th place.

Our best scenario is to finish 6th, which means a game against 3rd - likely to be the Hawks, or possibly West Coast. If we finish 7th or 8th, it's "game over, " I am afraid.

Plugger's correction :

6th plays 7th.

Right Plugger. Apologies, I must be into the second half of my bottle of wine! I will have to re-consider the finals options again.

[Jacks Back]

By Jove, I think St Carl's got it

Due to the poor start to the season this new strategy makes a lot of sense.

And we are the September Specialists after all

[linmarnic]

Half way into your second or third bottle?

[ralphsmith]

A few more players need to follow Dal Santos example and start playing the best football of their lives.

Peake is doing that.
Steven is doing that.
I reckon Milne is doing that.

Kosi needs to.
Riewoldt needs to.
I reckon Armitage can up a gear

And Zac needs to get on the creatine and bicep curls to beef up those arms for the duel against Cloke.

[InkerSaint]

It would be nice to think that our situation has been so well planned by the maestro, Ross, but that's not reality.

The next 4 games will tell us where we are really at - Freo, Pies, Swans, North. The Swans will be our "absolute must win" match for 6th place.

Our best scenario is to finish 6th, which means a game against 3rd - likely to be the Hawks, or possibly West Coast. If we finish 7th or 8th, it's "game over, " I am afraid.

6th plays 7th.

Yes, but at 6th's home ground. If the teams are in different states it is 7th that has to hop on a plane there and back.

[Teflon]

Nice theory and look i want to believe it also.

BUT..

As much as talk about strategies and "tuning" players and game plans like they are roboitys/machines....facts are they arent.

IMO our recent form comes down to a few things:

1. We have slowly worked into the year - I do believe our delayed pre season has hampered us early and resulted in a slow start and losing 2 GF's did challenge them mentally (I know I felt like "oh shyte not this again..." so imagine how players doing the hard work felt?>??)

2. We (at the time we were struggling) hit all top sides......now we are hitting some form we are hitting bowwom sides......good for confidence but you will see in the next few weeks where we are truly at. In fact, I reckon Sydney game more than Collingwood atg Dome is the barometer.

3. Good players finding form - Goddard, Gilbert etc have hit some form. Dal been great all season. The good news here IMHO is that Goddard, Roo, Gilbert even Joey have more in them for mine...

4. Settled team with right mix of role players getting the footy to the good players hands - when we are at our best thats what we do well no doubt.

Id love to win the flag but cant see it BUT if we have a decent finals series then IMHO the depth we have uncovered in 2011 will make us stronger in 2012. I can see a retrun to top 4 next year IF we just get a half decent run from injury.

[saintspremiers]

The preliminary final dream is alive.

Anything else is a bonus.

[gringo]

Sydney with Roos, Misson and Lyon used to confound the competition by peaking just as the need arose. Some how they would drift all season then just sneak up and grind out wins. Can see us sneaking into the prelim and if you get there it is anyones game. I'm just glad we aren't tanking for pick 20 in a s*** draft.

[noob]

You would probably rather finish 5th or 8th so you can avoid collingwood till the GF rather than the prelim. The rest we're pretty competitive.

[desertsaint]

You would probably rather finish 5th or 8th so you can avoid collingwood till the GF rather than the prelim. The rest we're pretty competitive.

rather meet them in the prelim myself - rather lose that one to them. if we do beat them then we go in knowing we can beat anyone.

[Dan Warna]

statistically we can make 4th

reality we should make 6th.

I think if we have our heads on straight there isn't a team we can't beat.

[#1GILL]

You would probably rather finish 5th or 8th so you can avoid collingwood till the GF rather than the prelim. The rest we're pretty competitive.

rather meet them in the prelim myself - rather lose that one to them. if we do beat them then we go in knowing we can beat anyone.

Yep, Collingwood in the grandfinal- no thanks.

[stinger]

As an eternal optomist I am taking a very different view of this year's 'home and away' series.

GO SAINTS!

hope you are right...too scarred to dream.....

[villasaint]

If we finish 6th and win the first final who would we play next if 1 beats 4 (west coast) and 2 beats 3 (hawthorn)?

[thefatdork]

You would probably rather finish 5th or 8th so you can avoid collingwood till the GF rather than the prelim. The rest we're pretty competitive.

rather meet them in the prelim myself - rather lose that one to them. if we do beat them then we go in knowing we can beat anyone.

Yep, Collingwood in the grandfinal- no thanks.

Interesting thoughts, but which is better - meeting a Collingwood side in a Prelim when they are still hungry to reach the GF, or meet an over-confident Collingwood in the GF and trample over them.

I reckon we take it a week at a time - but I think we'll be 6th with a home final and then give it a real crack from then on - injuries and match review panel permitting.

GO SAINTS

[villasaint]

We need to get to a prelim if we have to play the second final in Perth it's all over. Pies, cats who cares it would be greaT to make another prelim.

[Griggsy]

While I like to think I am an optimist, it is a bit of a stretch. All those games that we lead and ended up losing at the start of the season would no doubt have been turning Lyon grey. If we had won those, the slow start would not appear to be as slow as it actually was. In fact we could have been top 4 or atleast on the brink. Cats, Tigers, Blues were all winnable with us leading in the 4th and losing by less than a goal (+draw), also forfeiting a 32 point lead to the Hawks.

Also notably is the fact that 3 of those teams make up the top4 suggesting how good we were to remain that close. If thats us playing slow, then the 2011 Saints on a roll would be comparable to 2009. I just don't think they are that good.

But I do hope I am wrong and we match that 09 streak at the right end of the season this time round. Playing out 4 quarters and an in form Roo may be all we need to do so.

[Verdun66]

I'm with Stinger. Too scarred to dream.

But... in 2009 we came out and blitzed everything and everybody, and late season had a lull, and never really regained the form of earlier. We should have won the game though.

2010 we stuttered along, and lost Rooey, and never really hit 2009 form. Bingo, we nearly win the first GF. Blown away in the second out of steam.

2011....who knows. I'll take what comes, no expectations.