Inside 50 Targets

[SainterK]

For those interested.

When we've kicked it to Roo more than any other player, we've lost.

Coincidence?

Inside 50 target

Melbourne
63 inside 50’s
Goddard 1
Roo 4
Steven 1
Peake 1
Jones 1
Armo 1
Milne 9
Schneider 3
Kosi 6
Siposs 3

Hawks
31 inside 50’s
Dal 1
Roo 6
Dempster 1
Schneider 1
Milne 1
Polo 1
Kosi 1
McEvoy 3
Siposs 3

Carlton
54 inside 50’s
Armo 1
Roo 5
Goddard 1
McEvoy 3
Mini 2
Kosi 5
Milne 11
Steven 2
Cripps 3
Siposs 1

Brisbane
49 inside 50’s
Joey 1
Roo 3
Milne 3
Steven 1
Stanley 3

Essendon
52 inside 50’s
Goddard 2
Milne 5
Roo 16
Gwilt 1
McEvoy 4
Steven 2
Stanley 5

Richmond
48 inside 50’s
Milne 6
Gram 1
Fisher 1
Gilbert 3
Roo 7
Goddard 4
McEvoy 2
Gamble 3
Blake 1
Archer 4

Geelong
52 inside 50’s
Joey 1
Goddard 2
Riewoldt 12
Armo 1
McEvoy 1
Dempster 1
Gamble 1
Blake 3
Milne 2

[Cairnsman]

Getting the ball by running hard at the ball and taking a leaping mark are his strengths. Teams have worked him out and give him a bit of a nudge as soon as his feet leave the ground. Can he kick. Nup. Is he a key forward. Nup.

[BAM! (shhhh)]

Where can I get those numbers?

[eppo67]

I'm very keen to see Roo, Siposs & Will J all in the same Fwd. line.

[SainterK]

Where can I get those numbers?

Pro-stats Bam, I think they are fairly close to accurate.

[Cairnsman]

Where can I get those numbers?

Pro-stats Bam, I think they are fairly close to accurate.

That sounds like stats a politician could use.

[SaintPav]

That's settled. lets trade Roo as well.

[gringo]

I agree Will J. would add another target and bring that defensive forward in. Siposs could get free easier if we stretched them a bit.

[Teflon]

Good thread - Sainter K.

Its embarrassing isnt it? I mean, weve bemoaned how 1 dimensional we have been for some time and yet we STILL go down the same path?

We MUST break this. Move Riewoldt out -let him drift fwd when permitting.

Force the opposition to structure up for a different Saints fwd half.

[sainta]

The stats show that if we kick it to Milne the most we win. Problem solved.

[Teflon]

The stats show that if we kick it to Milne the most we win. Problem solved.

Good point. Stats are useless.

Still, relying on 1 player cant be good......we've been there before.

[True Blue Sainter]

Ideally, you would like to see at least 6 players be the target on multiple occasions.

Roo
Kosi/Will J
McEvoy
Milne
Schneider
Siposs

with some cameos from midfielders such as Joey, Polo & Dal drifting down there.

It is important to have a vast spread of players to kick to, or else you become one-dimensional. If you're too predictable, it becomes much easier to defend for the opposition.

[BAM! (shhhh)]

Teams need set targets inside 50.

Ideally you'll have a few, and be able to spread the load to make it harder for opposition defenses to set up, but key forwards are supposed to be regular targets.

[SainterK]

Teams need set targets inside 50.

Ideally you'll have a few, and be able to spread the load to make it harder for opposition defenses to set up, but key forwards are supposed to be regular targets.

No doubt, however 16 times against Essendon was too high, and reflected in the result somewhat.

[Johnny Member]

Teams need set targets inside 50.

Ideally you'll have a few, and be able to spread the load to make it harder for opposition defenses to set up, but key forwards are supposed to be regular targets.

I don't agree at all.

Kicking to a person, should be the last resort.

Kicking to designated spots on the ground is the most effective way of moving the ball forward.


The reason SainterK's stats are relevant, are simply because it shows how predictable we are.
That's the reason we get rolled when we kick to Roo too much. Not because he's no good - it's because everyone in the entire arena knows that that is where the ball is going.

[Junction Oval]

It seems a simple solution, but "kick to the best opprtunity."

Admittedly, from a long way out, the CHF is likely to be front and centre in leading forward. However, others need to "think" a little more and position themselves to be another option, which will force other defenders to fall of the leading man (Nick).

Better delivery into the forward line would also be of some minor assistance.

[Johnny Member]

It seems a simple solution, but "kick to the best opprtunity."

Admittedly, from a long way out, the CHF is likely to be front and centre in leading forward. However, others need to "think" a little more and position themselves to be another option, which will force other defenders to fall of the leading man (Nick).

Better delivery into the forward line would also be of some minor assistance.

The idea should be, you don't think about 'who' to kick to at all.

You kick to a spot in the F50. Obviously not the same spot every time - or we'd be back in the predictable zone.

The forwards ensure they keep their men away from the space, and amongst themselves determine who runs to the that space as the ball comes in.

It's what Geelong and Collingwood do so well.

[Junction Oval]

Sounds a bit too intellectual to me JM. Are the players up to it? The theory sounds interesting, but it relies on the left hand knowing what the right hand is going to do, if you know what I mean.

It requires mind-reading by players, both up the ground and in the forward 50 to work properly. If a player kicks to any spot in the F50 (we don't want to be predictable), then how do all players communicate which space to leave open (on each forward entry).

The've got it, we've got it, it's in dispute, seems a bit easier to comprehend.

[BAM! (shhhh)]

Teams need set targets inside 50.

Ideally you'll have a few, and be able to spread the load to make it harder for opposition defenses to set up, but key forwards are supposed to be regular targets.

I don't agree at all.

Kicking to a person, should be the last resort.

Kicking to designated spots on the ground is the most effective way of moving the ball forward.


The reason SainterK's stats are relevant, are simply because it shows how predictable we are.
That's the reason we get rolled when we kick to Roo too much. Not because he's no good - it's because everyone in the entire arena knows that that is where the ball is going.

Haven't had a chance to look on pro-stats for comparison yet, but before SainterK's stats can be labelled as relevant they need context. ATM the numbers above are anecdotal - they don't prove (or even suggest) anything yet.

i.e. in comparison to other teams around the league, what's the norm for targetting an individual? Kennedy got targetted a lot on Sunday and that worked okay, Brown got targetted a lot on Saturday night and it worked okay... we know that hawthorn's Buddy-centric. We also know that when Fev left the Blues, they got better.

Anecdotally, it's easy to see that team's like the Saints, Hawks, Lions get lazy and kick to their key forwards when they're triple covered. That's bad. However, the stats presented are far from proving that having a key target is bad, or giving any sort of indication of how much is too much. For what it's worth, I'm on board with the "kick to sports over people" concept... but suspect we'd still find Reiwoldt as our leading target inside 50 by a wide margin.

I'm pretty comfortable that the Saints 2 wins being the 2 games where Milne rather than Roo was the frequent target inside 50 is not the primary driver for the win.

[Johnny Member]

Sounds a bit too intellectual to me JM. Are the players up to it? The theory sounds interesting, but it relies on the left hand knowing what the right hand is going to do, if you know what I mean.

It requires mind-reading by players, both up the ground and in the forward 50 to work properly. If a player kicks to any spot in the F50 (we don't want to be predictable), then how do all players communicate which space to leave open (on each forward entry).

The've got it, we've got it, it's in dispute, seems a bit easier to comprehend.

The key is, like anything in footy, if you practice it enough and play together long enough, and stick to the game plan - you'll get it right.

I wrote this in another thread once, but it's like a ruckman and his on-ballers.
They practice, over and over again their setups. The ruckman doesn't hit it to a player, he hits to the spot he knows the on-ballers is going to be - and the on-baller runs to the spot where he knows the ruckman is going to hit it.

[SainterK]

For those interested.

Roo remains low, we look more even

Inside 50 target

Fremantle
46 inside 50's
Joey 1
Armo 1
Schneider 1
Peake 4
Milne 3
Jones 1
Roo 2
Polo 1
Blake 1
Lynch 3
Siposs 2

Melbourne
63 inside 50’s
Goddard 1
Roo 4
Steven 1
Peake 1
Jones 1
Armo 1
Milne 9
Schneider 3
Kosi 6
Siposs 3

Hawks
31 inside 50’s
Dal 1
Roo 6
Dempster 1
Schneider 1
Milne 1
Polo 1
Kosi 1
McEvoy 3
Siposs 3

Carlton
54 inside 50’s
Armo 1
Roo 5
Goddard 1
McEvoy 3
Mini 2
Kosi 5
Milne 11
Steven 2
Cripps 3
Siposs 1

Brisbane
49 inside 50’s
Joey 1
Roo 3
Milne 3
Steven 1
Stanley 3

Essendon
52 inside 50’s
Goddard 2
Milne 5
Roo 16
Gwilt 1
McEvoy 4
Steven 2
Stanley 5

Richmond
48 inside 50’s
Milne 6
Gram 1
Fisher 1
Gilbert 3
Roo 7
Goddard 4
McEvoy 2
Gamble 3
Blake 1
Archer 4

Geelong
52 inside 50’s
Joey 1
Goddard 2
Riewoldt 12
Armo 1
McEvoy 1
Dempster 1
Gamble 1
Blake 3
Milne 2

[dcstkfc]

Thanks SainterK.
Where'd you get the data from?

[Bernard Shakey]

"Pro-Stats The Stats The Coaches Use"

Their home page is looking for people to keep these stats. I don't thing the coaches rely on these too much. Too many stats are just rubbish.

I do think however, that Roo needs to play up the ground, as many here have been saying for quite a while.

[Johnny Member]

In my opinion, the best way to use Roo is as a roaming half forward.

I don't think he's required in the forward line anyway at the moment, as we've just shown we can kick 100 points without him there.

But, the best scenario is that he still attracts the best defender - that's why I'd prefer him as a roaming HF as opposed to starting on a wing. A guy like Dale Thomas for example, would hurt him offensively whereas a guy like McPharlin last week had a bit of the pill, but was still wearing his defenders hat and didn't do any damage.

So Roo would effectively play the role of wingman/HF, but try to make sure he's not matched up on a nimble quality wingman, but instead a big defender who can't hurt us.


In addition to that, I'd still like to see Roo drift into the F50 occasionally and add another string to our forward bow. Probably only once or twice a quarter (or as appropriate), just to make sure opposition teams don't adjust to us without him being there.
Meaning, I don't believe Roo the forward is the problem. The problem is that we are too predictable when Roo is a forward.
So taking him out of there is great, if it makes us unpredictable. However if taking him out of there just means we become predictable again by going through other guys then it's not really much value.

[Liam_G]

Too many stats are just rubbish

The words often muttered by those who have no idea about the depth of statistical analysis that goes on at club level in modern football.

I can guarantee you that clubs spend hundreds of thousands of dollars a year for such "rubbish". No surprise that the two benchmark teams of 2010 were also the two that spent the most time, money and resources on heavy statistical analysis. One of the main reasons why much more money was poured into the Football Department over the past few years, compared to those before it.