The Sums Just Don't Add

[Johnny Member]

WARNING: This post contains a few 'ifs' regarding our season to date.



I'm getting a bit puzzled.

We should have beaten Geelong. Not could have - we should have.

We should have beaten Richmond. Not could have - we should have.

We could have beaten Adelaide.

We could have beaten Carlton - probably should have considering we were in front with a minute to go. But to appear unbias, I'll go with could have for that one.

We should be 4-4, and could have been 6-2.


But how? Our guns are playing terribly (overall).

Our skills are worse than ever.

Our goal kicking has been putrid.

We've lost our best mid and arguably best player (Lenny).

Our no. 1 ruck hasn't played yet.

We get monstered in all the important stats every week.


How are we remaining competitive? Modern stats tell us, that if you lose contested footy and tackles - you get beaten. In most cases, you get beaten badly.
But we've lost in these areas twice and still won. And also lost 3 close ones (I'm including the Draw) where we lost these stats.


Maybe I'm naively optimistic, but what happens when/if our guns start to fire?
What happens when we get our no. 1 ruck back?

And more importantly, what happens if/when we start winning the tackle count and the constested footy?



To summarise, what are we doing so well that has allowed us to have won 2 games and nearly won 3 more, whilst getting killed in such apparently critical stats?

It's a strange situation, I reckon.

[SainterK]

We put the fear into the comp?

[Johnny Member]

We put the fear into the comp?

I'd imagine so.


But I don't really intend this to be a 'we'll worry some teams in the 8 if we get it right' sort of thread.

I'm more interested in thoughts from people who've been to more games than I have this year, as to why we can still be winning (albeit against average sides) and getting real close (Geelong, Richmond, Carlton) when we're losing the stats that are considered so absolutely critical.

What is it that's keeping us in it? It's not the individual brilliance of our superstars, that's for sure!

[SainterK]

Hmmm....

Maybe it's because our lesser likes have been playing well.

At the moment our negating players are winning the battle over the opponents influential players. If our guns are down, thanks to these guys, so are theirs?

[Spinner]

Good post!

[santazzi]

We put the fear into the comp?

I'd imagine so.


But I don't really intend this to be a 'we'll worry some teams in the 8 if we get it right' sort of thread.

I'm more interested in thoughts from people who've been to more games than I have this year, as to why we can still be winning (albeit against average sides) and getting real close (Geelong, Richmond, Carlton) when we're losing the stats that are considered so absolutely critical.

What is it that's keeping us in it? It's not the individual brilliance of our superstars, that's for sure!

May be Mr Coach is a lot more smarter than we give him credit.........may be there is something different about our preparation.........may be our players are being primed to peak at the business end of the season...........
I believe there is some thing different and deliberate about our preparation.........

[Enrico_Misso]

Whilst not trying to answer your main question (how are we still winning?),
your argument that we should be 4-4 could 6-2 is sound
despite the stars being out or out of sorts

But it just shows that there is a lot of upside still.
If we can just battle our way into the 8 we will scare plenty.

It's a dismal start and not where we thought we would be.
But all is not lost.

[saint66au]

The Carlton and Richmond games would have been steals..we were clearly the inferior side over the entire game on both occsaions IMO

The trouble is that when you lose clearances and contested posessions every week, youre at the mercy of how well the opposition play, as you are constantly have to deprive them of the footy before you can start creating your own play.

I said yesterday that we'd have been 6 goals in front at 1/2 time if we'd broken even in the centre, but it was closer because we were constantly relying on a turnover or skill error to win back posession of the footy rathner than getting it ourselves

Sides like Melbourne, Brisbane and to a lesser extent Richmond let you do that more often...Essendon, Carlton and Hawthorn didnt

[SainterK]

The Carlton and Richmond games would have been steals..we were clearly the inferior side over the entire game on both occsaions IMO

The trouble is that when you lose clearances and contested posessions every week, youre at the mercy of how well the opposition play, as you are constantly have to deprive them of the footy before you can start creating your own play.

I said yesterday that we'd have been 6 goals in front at 1/2 time if we'd broken even in the centre, but it was closer because we were constantly relying on a turnover or skill error to win back posession of the footy rathner than getting it ourselves

Sides like Melbourne, Brisbane and to a lesser extent Richmond let you do that more often...Essendon, Carlton and Hawthorn didnt

Richmond?

You think we were inferior that night?

I thought we were competitive, and the 30 scoring shots and subsequent inaccuracy told the story that night.

[joffaboy]

Sorry to be a damp squib (or is that a wet squid?) Mr Member, but I think you have built a Straw Man for you argument.

We are not 6-2 or 4-4 but 2-1-5, exactly where we should be with the way we have played.

Our big guns began firing yesterday and we still just got over the line of an injuy depleted botton 4 team.

We are a shadow of the Saints team of 09 and 10 without Lenny and Gardiner. We get flogged by a team without a ruckam this week and by a team who had to use Roughead and Franklin last week.

I am not optimistic at all.

[dcstkfc]

How are we still remaining somewhat competitive?

3 main reasons:

1. We run out games well, we are one of the fittest teams around.

2. Our defence holds up very well under pressure.

3. Our skills are actually reasonable. Our kicking for goal has been poor, but our kicking skills are generally not too bad, despite what many on this site will tell you.

[Junction Oval]

Let's enjoy the moment, but don't get carried away just yet.

The next 4 weeks will tell us where we stand.

[Enrico_Misso]

Agree
The Richmond game was definitely a SHOULD.
We were all over them in the first half and should have put them away.
Then we were bombarding the goals at the end (for points) and were beaten by the siren.

Whilst the Adelaide and Carlton games were definitely COULDs.

[thejiggingsaint]

Its all a matter of opinion is it not? I watched the Geelong game on TV from Tassie and that first half (and some of the second) saw some of the most woeful "football skills" we've served up in years.
The Richmond game? Well I was at that one, and again the football was woeful.
Adelaide? Well, ONE goal in a half of football is in anyones book: WOEFUL!
Essendon? Well need I dwell on THAT game?
I reckon we are exactly where we deserve to be, based on what we've seen from the team so far.
I love the club and will support the side, but the numbers are adding up for me, so far.

[Teflon]

Ive wondered this also.

BUT I reckon Lyon summed it up in his last press conference....the contested posessions/clearance stats are just that........stats. They are outcomes and NOT the influencer of the outcome - that is EFFORT.

Ive seen effort from this side on a few occasions this year and that IMO keeps us in games. The trick is combining that with some polish to either win a clearance or score.

[widereceiver]

It would be wrong to criticise the effort put in by the players on the day. They are trying their guts out, I am sure. The remnants of our forward defence have made it difficult for most sides to give us a caning most weeks, with the exception of two.

Essedon (only one n? really? you ignorant Western peasants?) seem to better us with fast breaks and long kicking every time we play them.

Hawthorn beat us because we put the cue in the rack, our most disgraceful loss since... that Hawthorn game with Tim Watson at the helm.

The lack of cohesion of the team and the low morale of the team made it possible for the Demons' reserves to challenge as late as mid third q. yesterday. Our mids lose the clearance count most quarters and we have no ruckman at all.

Our skills are, simply, abysmal and unprofessional by hand and foot.

[desertsaint]

We put the fear into the comp?

I'd imagine so.


But I don't really intend this to be a 'we'll worry some teams in the 8 if we get it right' sort of thread.

I'm more interested in thoughts from people who've been to more games than I have this year, as to why we can still be winning (albeit against average sides) and getting real close (Geelong, Richmond, Carlton) when we're losing the stats that are considered so absolutely critical.

What is it that's keeping us in it? It's not the individual brilliance of our superstars, that's for sure!

May be Mr Coach is a lot more smarter than we give him credit.........may be there is something different about our preparation.........may be our players are being primed to peak at the business end of the season...........
I believe there is some thing different and deliberate about our preparation.........

we'll be fit and firing come the finals. pity we'll come 10th.

[Johnny Member]

Sorry to be a damp squib (or is that a wet squid?) Mr Member, but I think you have built a Straw Man for you argument.

We are not 6-2 or 4-4 but 2-1-5, exactly where we should be with the way we have played.

I'm not really putting forward an argument as such.

The real point I was trying to get across, was the oddity that we are 2-1-5 when we've been murdered in tackles, contested footy and clearances (I left that stat out in the OP - and it's probably the most important!).

The fact we could or should have a better win-loss ratio was only really mentioned to highlight the fact further that it's strange that we've been as competetive as we have been considering these stats.


If you watch footy this season, teams that win clearances and contested footy win. When a team is getting smashed during a game, it's almost always because they're losing clearances and contested footy at that point.

Collingwood yesterday were getting beaten in this area, and found themselves with only 50 points on the board and 4 goals in arrear with 15 minutes to go! The moment they started to win these stats they piled on 11 goals!

There just seems to be such a direct correlation with clearances, tackles and contested posession and winning.
In both of our wins (and 3 close non-wins) we've lost these areas. Any other team would be 0-8 with the performances in these areas that we've had.

That's what doesn't add up.

It's almost as if, whether by design or accident, we've found a way to put ourselves in a winning position without winning these stats.

[InkerSaint]

Spot on Johnny Member. We lost the tackle count again on the weekend. For a game that was in the balance until halfway through the fourth you've gotta wonder.

I don't get all the angst about foot skills. It's not like they're static figures. We always look like a more skillful team when our confidence is up. How about Melbourne - will anyone argue that their foot skills are worse?

Maybe it's the game plan that stacks up, and it's the execution that is found wanting? Has that become the common consensus yet?

[bergholt]

Spot on Johnny Member. We lost the tackle count again on the weekend.

adelaide lost the tackle count to gold coast last week despite beating them by ten goals. it's not exactly an infallible indicator.

[spert]

Good TEAMS win games, not a few individuals, there's no could have, we didn't win those games for a reason. As old Jeansy used to say, make less mistakes than your opponents, and in the Geelong game, we gifted them a couple of goals with stupid decision making. The Carlton and Hawthorn games clearly showed RL that our midfield has poor defensive games, and thats' why receivers like NDS went to the backline on Saturday for a reality check, and McQ and Gram got dropped, as they just let their opponents win the ball too easy, and if you have a good defensive game, you at least stop your opponent from winning the contest even if you don't have the ball.

[Johnny Member]

Spot on Johnny Member. We lost the tackle count again on the weekend.

adelaide lost the tackle count to gold coast last week despite beating them by ten goals. it's not exactly an infallible indicator.

But tackles, clearances and contested footy?

[Johnny Member]

Good TEAMS win games, not a few individuals, there's no could have, we didn't win those games for a reason.

But as per my original question, how are we able to get so close whilst being belted in stats that are considered critical?

Stats that if other teams are belted in, they don't get done by 3 points - they get done by 10 goals!

[BAM! (shhhh)]

How are we remaining competitive? Modern stats tell us, that if you lose contested footy and tackles - you get beaten. In most cases, you get beaten badly.
But we've lost in these areas twice and still won. And also lost 3 close ones (I'm including the Draw) where we lost these stats.

Careful - it's easy to get confused at times between "what stats tell us" and what stats imply. A high correlation between CP and Wins, between I50 and Wins, is not the same as saying it's a rule - the only stat that has that "rule" is goals.

Consider, your odds of heads or tails are 50:50, but there's no rule which says it's going to go heads,tails,heads... etc. in fact, the odds of any pattern comin up like that are extremely low.

The art of playing the percentages is understanding that they don't always come off.

As others have said, as close as we've been, the fact remains, the Saints are a 2 win team.

There remain positives about the Saints ability (fitness, defensive ability to repel I50s), but over the medium and long term, if contested possessions and inside 50s don't start trending the Saints way, we can't expect the games to.

[spert]

Good TEAMS win games, not a few individuals, there's no could have, we didn't win those games for a reason.

But as per my original question, how are we able to get so close whilst being belted in stats that are considered critical?

Stats that if other teams are belted in, they don't get done by 3 points - they get done by 10 goals!

I think our backline has stood up under massive pressure, and should take a lot of credit for keeping us close in most games this season.