Time Vault: Guess how many of our top 4 picks will be duds?

[saintspremiers]

The reason why I've left out Gamble and Marco Polo is that they have played AFL before, so they go into the recycled bin......

If we are consistent with the last 5 years, at best 1 out of the 4 kids we drafted will be a decent player.

So my guess is one of the four will make it.

Re-open this post in 2013 to see!!!

[st_Trav_ofWA]

what a negative way to look at things ...... do you look forward in your life and think how many things will i stuff up befor i die aswell ?

cheer up not everything in the world is bad

[Animal Enclosure]

Another positive & uplifting post regarding our new draftees.

Congratulations misery guts, you've just written off 3 kids as duds.

Care to name which of the 4 will meet your requirements?

[kosifantutti23]

If we are consistent with the last 5 years,

We'll make the finals four times, play in 3 prelims and 3 grand finals.

[stkildathunda]

If we are consistent with the last 5 years,

We'll make the finals four times, play in 3 prelims and 3 grand finals.

I dont think i could live with that failure at all. Might be time to support a team that actually does well for a change.

[SaintWodonga]

The draft is a way to find out which supporters are optimistic or pessimistic people. Any guesses for the writer of this post?

[InkerSaint]

If I guessed how many of your posts were duds I'd be on here permanently.

[plugger66]

If making it means over 100 games then thats good. How anyone on here would know anything about our drafted players is beyond me. We have no idea if they will be good or bad but for gods sake lets give all of them a chance.

[saintspremiers]

If making it means over 100 games then thats good. How anyone on here would know anything about our drafted players is beyond me. We have no idea if they will be good or bad but for gods sake lets give all of them a chance.

agree.

Don't get me wrong, I'd love one or some of them to be 100 game players.

FFS some of you lot have no idea.

Our record recently in drafting decent kids is shocking, that is FACT.

Glad that you lot have blind faith

[Animal Enclosure]

If making it means over 100 games then thats good. How anyone on here would know anything about our drafted players is beyond me. We have no idea if they will be good or bad but for gods sake lets give all of them a chance.

agree.

Don't get me wrong, I'd love one or some of them to be 100 game players.

FFS some of you lot have no idea.

Our record recently in drafting decent kids is shocking, that is FACT.

Glad that you lot have blind faith

What facts are you talking about? The kids like Lynch that are yet to get a real crack at it? Winmar written off after 1 year on the list?

Supporters like you have no idea... the same ones that would have bagged BJ unmercifully, called Montagna a dud and swore they would not renew memberships when Zac was picked up.

BTW Plugger was disagreeing with your idiotic post... so agreeing with him pretty much sums you up.

[BigMart]

2 probably.....most likely the two WA boys, who could come on and play senior footy.....

History says only about half the kids drafted end up with AFL longish careers...

Crocker/Ledger are quite small, so are Baker/Schnieder/Milne/Montagna.....but also there have been many whose size have cost them a career....need to make up for it with upside in pother areas....

[Bigmal47]

Everybody is quick to slam saintspremiers comments but only three rising star nominations in seven years seems to back up his statement. I for one hope he is wrong but am able to pull my head out of the sand and see that the comments have some reasoning behind them. Its great to have faith in your team and we should all keep an open mind but not so open that our brains fall out.

[SaintPav]

Everybody is quick to slam saintspremiers comments but only three rising star nominations in seven years seems to back up his statement. I for one hope he is wrong but am able to pull my head out of the sand and see that the comments have some reasoning behind them. Its great to have faith in your team and we should all keep an open mind but not so open that our brains fall out.

It's maybe because we have been finishing high up on the ladder that we have not been getting the decent draft picks....I'd rather have played in 5 out of the last seven prelims. Only the Cats have done that.

[saintspremiers]

Everybody is quick to slam saintspremiers comments but only three rising star nominations in seven years seems to back up his statement. I for one hope he is wrong but am able to pull my head out of the sand and see that the comments have some reasoning behind them. Its great to have faith in your team and we should all keep an open mind but not so open that our brains fall out.

It's maybe because we have been finishing high up on the ladder that we have not been getting the decent draft picks....I'd rather have played in 5 out of the last seven prelims. Only the Cats have done that.

There are plenty of decent players running around at the moment taken beyond the Top 10.

Remember, we did get picks below 20 (ie good picks) every draft except this one (due to the Suns), so I don't take that one completely.

Hopefully Animal Enclosure will read these last few posts....

[InkerSaint]

Everybody is quick to slam saintspremiers comments but only three rising star nominations in seven years seems to back up his statement. I for one hope he is wrong but am able to pull my head out of the sand and see that the comments have some reasoning behind them. Its great to have faith in your team and we should all keep an open mind but not so open that our brains fall out.

Biggest. Load. Of. Crap. Ever.

It's high time the fanfare around Rising Star nominations was debunked. Here's the final word.

Arguably the best on ground for the Magpies in the GF replay were Jolly, Sidebottom, Thomas, Pendlebury, Swan, Maxwell.

Of that lot only Pendlebury has had a nomination. The other nominees Nathan Brown, Leigh Brown, Reid, Beams, Clarke, Goldsack, Cloke, Ball and Didak played their role but were nowhere near as influential. I'd suggest even that some of those names were lucky to be along for the ride.

Geelong had 10 rising star nominees on the park for last year's GF to the Saints' 11.

Most of West Coast's 18 nominees for the last 10 years earned their nominations from 2004 onwards. 3 of them are premiership players and the rest of them probably never will be.

West Coast and Western Bulldogs both had 13 in their list this year, one finished 4th and the other got the spoon.

The Saints have had 11 nominations in a decade, including such luminaries as Cayden Beetham and James Begley. Sydney have had 8 (one is now on our list). Richmond have had 14. Melbourne have had 17. Yippee!

Rising Star nominations are for cellar dwellers. By all means develop the kids, but field a competitive team first and foremost.

[AP Erebus]

Everybody is quick to slam saintspremiers comments but only three rising star nominations in seven years seems to back up his statement. I for one hope he is wrong but am able to pull my head out of the sand and see that the comments have some reasoning behind them. Its great to have faith in your team and we should all keep an open mind but not so open that our brains fall out.

Biggest. Load. Of. Crap. Ever.

It's high time the fanfare around Rising Star nominations was debunked. Here's the final word.

Arguably the best on ground for the Magpies in the GF replay were Jolly, Sidebottom, Thomas, Pendlebury, Swan, Maxwell.

Of that lot only Pendlebury has had a nomination. The other nominees Nathan Brown, Leigh Brown, Reid, Beams, Clarke, Goldsack, Cloke, Ball and Didak played their role but were nowhere near as influential. I'd suggest even that some of those names were lucky to be along for the ride.

Geelong had 10 rising star nominees on the park for last year's GF to the Saints' 11.

Most of West Coast's 18 nominees for the last 10 years earned their nominations from 2004 onwards. 3 of them are premiership players and the rest of them probably never will be.

West Coast and Western Bulldogs both had 13 in their list this year, one finished 4th and the other got the spoon.

The Saints have had 11 nominations in a decade, including such luminaries as Cayden Beetham and James Begley. Sydney have had 8 (one is now on our list). Richmond have had 14. Melbourne have had 17. Yippee!

Rising Star nominations are for cellar dwellers. By all means develop the kids, but field a competitive team first and foremost.

Win.

/endthread

[Animal Enclosure]

Everybody is quick to slam saintspremiers comments but only three rising star nominations in seven years seems to back up his statement. I for one hope he is wrong but am able to pull my head out of the sand and see that the comments have some reasoning behind them. Its great to have faith in your team and we should all keep an open mind but not so open that our brains fall out.

It's maybe because we have been finishing high up on the ladder that we have not been getting the decent draft picks....I'd rather have played in 5 out of the last seven prelims. Only the Cats have done that.

There are plenty of decent players running around at the moment taken beyond the Top 10.

Remember, we did get picks below 20 (ie good picks) every draft except this one (due to the Suns), so I don't take that one completely.

Hopefully Animal Enclosure will read these last few posts....

I read them mate & they still don't change my view that our drafting has not been as horrendous as you suggest in recent years.

If you're concentrating on our first picks, the following players have been chosen during Ross' tenure

2006- David Armitage
2007- Ben McEvoy
2008- Tom Lynch
2009- Traded to Ess- Lovett
2010- Jamie Cripps

If you then look at our 2nd rounders-

2006- Brad Howard
2007- Traded for Schneider & Dempster
2008- Traded for Farren Ray & pick 48 (Nick Heyne)
2009- Nick Winmar
2010- Sam Crocker

I would argue with you that it is way too early to be calling our young players duds and stating that it is fact that our drafting has been awful. Armitage is the only player IMO that have been around long enough to have made an impact... some argue that he has the ability and is just being starved of the opportunity to show it.

McEvoy has started to hit his straps & will be a good player for us for a long time.

It is way too early to make a call on Lynch, Heyne and Winmar.

Brad Howard was a mistake.

Schneider, Ray and to a lesser extent Dempster have been very useful pickups in return for losing two late second round picks.

I'm just really disappointed that some supporters prefer to cry over who we have drafted when they most likely have never seen those kids play. BigMary being an annual offender.

I'm happy to sink the boots into the club when it is deserved but I can't find sufficient reason to whine about drafting over the last 5 years when every club has had hits and misses.

[Dr Spaceman]

Rather than guessing how many of our top 4 picks will be duds, I'd rather run a book on:

1) Who will be the first of the 4 to be labelled a dud?
2) Which poster will make that call?
3) When will that call be made?

Now that, IMO, would be far more interesting

[BAM! (shhhh)]

At the risk of being complicated... it doesn't have to be all good, or all bad.
Rising Star nominations are a terrible metric. The 3 best first year players of 2010 were all ineligible for nomination, period. Drafting & recruitment are just one small part of list management... the main part of which for the Saints has been attempting NOT to lose players.

Our development program in recent times is actually showing progress with long term players such as Gwilt, Jones, McQualter (in 2009, regardless of what you think of his 2010), McEvoy. It may not be as much fun as having a Cyril Rioli step straight into stardom... but it's probably more important in the long run.

For the pessimists - the last time the Saints to 4 kids in 1 draft, they got 4 kids who should all see senior footy in 2011, Lynch, Stanley, Heyne and Alistair Smith. Any one of these kids who cannot (I think) be nominated for rising star could go on to better careers that Rising Star WINNER Justin Koschitzke.

For the optimists - nobody in the above group has actually done squat yet.

[stinger]

.

Brad Howard was a mistake.

and one we happily repeated i'm afraid....

[BigMart]

OK keep your head in the sand.....yes, we have been great...I am sorry.

BTW - our recent success (or so called, in AFL success is measured in Flags)...is due to....

1998-2003 recuiting.....Hayes, Baker, Blake, Riewoldt, gehrig, Voss, Powell, Kosi, Montagna, Ball, Maguire, Fisher, Goddard, Penny, Gram, Milne.our elite came from that group......a few nominations there.....

How will we go from 2013-2020.....

or have we put all our eggs in the now basket....well lets hope we snare one....or more pain

Gold Coast, WCE, Essendon, Sydney, Freo, Melbourne, Carlton, North, Collingwood and even Richmond would smash us in with regards to talent under 25 ..... this is a fact. I could list 5-10 most likely to be guns on each of their list...

so here's hoping we win one in 2009-2011.....

[InkerSaint]

BTW - our recent success (or so called, in AFL success is measured in Flags)...is due to....

1998-2003 recuiting.....Hayes, Baker, Blake, Riewoldt, gehrig, Voss, Powell, Kosi, Montagna, Ball, Maguire, Fisher, Goddard, Penny, Gram, Milne.our elite came from that group......a few nominations there.....

Stop, my head hurts. You're confusing me.

Is that meant to be sarcasm???

You can't have it both ways. How can they be considered "elite" if they have had NO SUCCESS by your definition?

We either have a good team or we don't. Make up your mind.

[St Ick]

InkerSaint, love your comments re rising star nominations. Couldn't agree more, I think I'll leave the rest of the comments on this thread up to you, seem to have a pretty good handle on it.

I do wish we played more kids, don't believe in the apprenticeship, but you can't measure success of kids based on one good game hence one rising star nomination!

[BAM! (shhhh)]

OK keep your head in the sand.....yes, we have been great...I am sorry.

BTW - our recent success (or so called, in AFL success is measured in Flags)...is due to....

1998-2003 recuiting.....Hayes, Baker, Blake, Riewoldt, gehrig, Voss, Powell, Kosi, Montagna, Ball, Maguire, Fisher, Goddard, Penny, Gram, Milne.our elite came from that group......a few nominations there.....

How will we go from 2013-2020.....

or have we put all our eggs in the now basket....well lets hope we snare one....or more pain

Gold Coast, WCE, Essendon, Sydney, Freo, Melbourne, Carlton, North, Collingwood and even Richmond would smash us in with regards to talent under 25 ..... this is a fact. I could list 5-10 most likely to be guns on each of their list...

so here's hoping we win one in 2009-2011.....

I don't understand... is it a revelation that when the Saints best players start moving on in the next few years they'll be hard to replace? In other news, rain is wet, winter is cold, and Christmas is coming.

The Saints are at the place in list development where it's supposed to be hard. Melbourne, WCE, Gold Coast, Richmond are in places where it's supposed to be easy. Carlton were until recently.

1998-2003 the Saints drafted once outside the top 10 (and got Hayes, pretty hand). Since 2003, The Saints have reached the heady heights of #9 twice (2006 - Armitage, 2007 - McEvoy) in the 2 years they weren't making the top 4 an playing prelims or grand finals.

Of course our National Draft returns aren't spectacular. Relax, one of those shiny boxes under the tree with the funny bubbles on it might yet have an umbrella in it.