2017 v 2018 stats - reading the entrails

[Yorkeys]

How's this for not having enough to do:

after 12 games in 2017 Saints averaged 14.4 goals a game for and 15 against (rounded). For the second half we averaged 13.5 for and 13.6 against. This indicates a 22% drop in scoring but a 10% improvement in defence. It translated to losing one more game in the second half than the first and dropping 1 place in the ladder. The naïve eye might say there was an alarming sign that scoring potential was in serious decline and this was possibly masked a bit by the significant increase in defensive capacity.

In 2018 after 12 rounds we are averaging 11 goals a game for a decline from the same period last year of just over 3 goals a game, a very similar percentage decline pattern to the last half of 2017 (note we have played all the top 8 sides, so strong opponents, nevertheless..). Hypothesis: the decline in scoring potential has been in broad daylight for 12 months and nothing has been done to correct it. Poor form coaches? Our defence seems very similar or minutely better than last year based on scores against. So simplistically the main issues seems to be around a lack of firepower.
The difference between the R23 2017 team and last Saturday's in the forward line (published teams) were Nic and Josh Bruce replaced by Paddy and Josh Battle. In the engine room the changes were Billings and Longer out and Hickey and, for the sake of this story, say Steele in (its hard to exactly line up roles so far on, Steele was named on a HBF R23). Anyway the point being there has not been much innovation in the face of some evidence that the scoring has to improve.

Now if there is a steadfast commitment to playing forwards that have proven over a period that they cannot score and mids that cannot set up goal assists all the hand wringing in the world isn't going to fix things. And if the technical staff cannot see that trouble has been brewing for over 12 months and still persist with the same failed formula there is no hope. Battle should obviously have been played earlier. Marshall can hardly find form being treated as a yo yo in one week dropped the next. From reports of the Sandringham team there are a few promising types that deserve a chance because there is a case that Weller and Lonie are just not what are required. Maybe some from our defence could be given a crack in the middle e.g. Jimmy W. Alan must have been at some session where it was pointed out to win you need to score more than the opposition. I suspect there are a number of coaches in waiting that would love to get hold of our list as they can see opportunity to improve straight away.