Building a side for new AFL

[BackFromUSA]

I can totally understand the frustration felt by many after the first 2 losses. I am frustrated too.

Of course if after 6 more games we have turned that around and have evened the ledger - it will be another story. At this stage that looks unlikely.

But at the moment, I dont think that winning and losing games in 2013 are the highest priorities for this coaching staff.

I am not saying they want to lose but I almost feel like that they are prepared to lose some battles in order to win the overall war.

They are definitely reshaping our list for the new AFL.

An AFL where endurance athletes will reign.

Where bulk will be wasted and taxing.

An AFL where packs are no longer the norm (with rules that punish pack formers) and the ball is in motion for a greater percentage of the time being quickly thrown up or in from any around the ground stoppage.

An AFL where teams will be limited to 20 to 25 interchanges per quarter and fatigue in the final 5 minutes of a quarter will start to influence results more.

There is no doubt that we have slimmed down. I think we are actually finishing quarters out quite well ... with the exception being the humidity / cramping in Gold Coast.

We have started the process a year early to build a side that can run, run and run.

Our traded recruits - Hickey and Lee both are mobile talls ... to add to Stanley and McEvoy with their athletic abilities, plus TDL a small that runs. Roberton has endurance.

Our game style has changed already into an open style and I believe we are practicing already for the 2014 game style that will be required by AFL rule changes.

AFL 2014 onwards will not be about speed or strength - it will be an endurance game where speed and strength are a bonus.

Games will be a lot harder to shut down in the way that the Swans and then Ross Lyon loved to do ...

We will win around 8 to 10 games this year BUT we shall win more games next year with this head start.

And do not be surprised if the AFL swiches to a 24 or possibly a 25 or 26 round season as early as next year but definitely by 2016.

The commercial reality is that they are giving NRL a headstart each year in Northern markets by not playing real games by the start of March ... and the television networks are crying out for the extra weeks too. The NAB Cup will become a February 3 week knock out competition using the 3 teams / 2 halfs each format ... 18 teams (6 games with 6 clear winners) then round 2 with 2 games (6 teams participating) wth 2 clear winners and the NAB Cup Grand Final being between those 2 teams. They will lose the week off before the season and give all teams 2 weeks off during the season using the split round strategy.

Long seasons = more endurance to survive.

I believe that St Kilda has decided to use 2013 in preparation for 2014 to 2018 and get a head start on the competition (if possible) by preparing for the new age of AFL.

I believe that for that reason our 2013 free agency period will see us load up on midfielders and this obsession for a big full back will have disappeared with the continual growth of Stanley, Simpkin and Siposs as the cornerstone of a defensive 6 for many years to come. These are 3 quality kids we can build a premiership backline around.

Lenny, Tip Rat are there to hold it togther for 1 to 2 years and mentor the next group but once the new rules come into play they will be retired or relegated to the situation that Kosi and Blake find themselves in ... mentors primarily and seasoned experienced back ups in case of injuries. Rooey, Dal and joey have 3 or 4 years still to go.

Don't be surpised if we recruit through Free Agency 27 year old midfielders with elite endurance and reasonable ball winning ability (averaging 20 disposals a game) and good skills.

I believe that they are not looking for superstars but an even team ... with some breakout stars. They would rather have 6 foirwards that average 2 goals a game than a start that averages 4 that they then have to pay a trillion dollars to keep. I believe they would rather have 10 midfielders that can gather 20 possessions a game regularly than have a start who can get 30+ but will cost heaven and earth to get and keep ... and leave only pennys to patch together the rest of the midfield.

... then again I may be down the wrong path, have rose coloured glasses and no clue at all.

That final scenario may in fact be true.

[Verdun66]

Top post. A lot to think about. Watters is always mentioning 'aerobic animals' to describe players he admires. Interesting.

[Eastern]

We've been hearing all summer that Jack, Ben, Armo & Jaryn have been leading the way at training. Surprise, Surprise, they have been in our best so far this year. The problem is that they make up almost ALL of our PRIME AGE/GAMES (22-26 yrs/50-120 games) players !!

[asiu]

yes please.
... thinkn ahead of the pack.

Finally.

God give me the Grace to actually believe it.

[dragit]

Good thoughts cheers...

I still wonder about the influence the very highest calibre midfielders can have on a match, Cotchin, Dangerfield, Gaz... When fatigue sets in sometimes these guys can do something that the others can't, like stream out of the centre and goal from 60... Be nice to nab a player of that quality in the next couple of years.

Where bulk will be wasted and taxing. - don't tell this to Con, he'll pound your fairy floss head in.

[borderbarry]

Oh I hope you are right.

[Teflon]

Nice theory that we are getting ahead of the pack but what's glaringly missing is skills

Sure, aerobic capacity is increasingly important but no one runs faster than a 40 meter stab pass that often hits its target. We simply don't possess the skill level to carry out fast, free flowing attacking game. Check the Tiger goals last week.... I think 4-5 were from direct turn overs by us.

I remember a few seasons back Brad Howard was a running machine.... problem was he couldn't get the ball and did but have elite disposal.......real shame about Crocker... wonder where he ended up?

I know when Jack Stevens has the ball I close my eyes... I suspect he does too...

[Scollop]

It'd be great if we had a team full of Dals, Gary Abletts, and Bartels, and Scarletts and Rooys circa 2006-2009....but that's a fantasy

The kid cemented his place in Saints midfield with a breakout year and earnt his keep in 2012 as one of our better players. He's not perfect, but don't bag the kid and focus on the negatives... oh and pls get his name right ffs...it's Steven.

[Teflon]

It'd be great if we had a team full of Dals, Gary Abletts, and Bartels, and Scarletts and Rooys circa 2006-2009....but that's a fantasy

The kid cemented his place in Saints midfield with a breakout year and earnt his keep in 2012 as one of our better players. He's not perfect, but don't bag the kid and focus on the negatives... oh and pls get his name right ffs...it's Steven.

HTFU petal

I'm sure Jack well aware his chook-head disposal will hold him back.

THE TOPIC btw if you are interested is aerobic ability and skill levels - if you can't add anything sensible say nothing but spare me the whole "don't pick on my poor little boys" bullshyte FFS

This is an elite game , these guys k ow there strengths and weaknesses and what we say on a Saints website matters eff all

And I could care less if its Jon Stevens - you knew who I meant so shove your semantics up your bum

[Richter]

A really interesting point of view BTUSA.

One point, you say that you think we will win 8-10 games.... optimistically I count 6 (GWS, Bulldogs, Melbourne, Port, Lions, GC). And even then I think the Port, Bulldogs and Lions games are even money.

[spert]

Lets get fair dinkum and start Hayes and Roo on the bench, maybe Milne as Sub, and get games into Ross, Wright and any other likely midfielders. TDL and Lee to the forward line. We need these guys to get their bodies up to senior level aerobic standards which you can only do so much of in training and VFL. Losing to GC and Richmond is just unacceptable IMHO, so Watters needs to pull some tricks out of the bag to ensure we beat GWS, and shouldn't include the reliance on the core of ageing, slowing senior players.

[Greg T]

Great Post backfromusa...
Alot to think about there.Although we need these areobic animals,skill animals would also be nice,especially with the pace of the game.
Watters has alot to think about,between balance and blooding.
We still need our ageing blokes to pass down the passion,experience and mentor the younger crew and keep them hungry
to play finals as well.
Another couple of key blokes would be essential for our future.
Were always going to have to kick and mark and pass.
I hope the interchange stays the same,not a fan of the sub either...
Still a great ppost,well thought out USA.

[FQF]

I am not sold that we are that well organised and that forward thinking. But we can hope.

[Junction Oval]

A fair bit of time put into that BFUSA. Thanks. What has been said, in context, seems fairly obvious. The key priority from a Club perspective, is to balance recruitment/re-building, with not sliding down to the bottom of the ladder - we can't afford to do that. It's Watters key challenge to manage that successfully.

Revenue is increasingly difficult to find (some Clubs will eventually fold). Low ladder position means lower sponsorship. Cost pressures on Members are increasing. People have other recreational options today. If the re-build is not managed correctly, the Club slides and members walk (as occurring with Social Club), then the Club will slowly/not so slowly sink.

[loris]

Very interesting and perceptive post 'BackfromUSA'............... then again they usually are from you............... nearly as good as that bloke 'AwayinUSA' who frequented here in the 'bad old days'.................... now he was always spot on with making us crank our grey matter into action.!!!!!

What I adore about your style of posting, you are a forward thinker and usually a lateral one at that, which is always so refreshing.

I love the way you obviously think analytically about your views, present them in a logical manner, with no hint of ego; ie. 'this is an idea I have what do you think of it fellow saintsationalists'? There is no, I know best posturing..... I've got all this experience, so listen to moi, regardez moi, inherent in your posting style.
If and when someone differs with your view, you always respect their opinion, as I say you never let your ego intrude and start an illogical slanging match with them to try and score points for your idea.

Thanks for another thought provoking post BfUSA..................... Gee I miss the times when your alter ego 'AwayinUSA and that other gentleman poster 'The Statsman' used to frequently post here.................... both of you were always ahead of the pack, with ideas/opinions that stimulated some interesting debates to happen. Debates that were always conducted without animosity. They were passionate debates on ideas, but never 'pissing up the wall' contests.

Whatever happened to 'The Statsman'? If you are lurking out there, please pop in and post one of your gems............ just so I know you are still alive and kicking.

Thanks again BackfromUSA................. now to sit back and digest your ideas in this thread.............. at first read, they seem to have much merit.

[saintsRrising]

Even Kosi lost mass this summer to try and improve his endurance etc..

However this has been the trend for some time ever since firstly the flood, and then press, came in.

Once it was just the midfield that required elite endurance and where it gained an advantage . ie Banger

Now there is not a position on the field that does not require endurance running.

The extended bench, combined with super-rotations, meant that those good at burst running gained favour. The change in bench numbers, cap on rotations and the AFL's desire to keep racking up rule changes to keep the ball in motion and remove body contests, is meaning that balance is being tipped to endurance runners who can constantly run, rather than run in bursts.

[magnifisaint]

Instead of a 26 round season, the AFL needs to shed 4 clubs from Victoria otherwise you cannot call it a national comp with 10 clubs from Victoria. It's ridiculous and ten we may have a better chance.