Must be top 4 to win

[Con Gorozidis]

So here we are again in familiar territory in prelim final week.
Every single year - people get deluded that someone from outside the top 4 can win the flag - every year people think will be an exception. And lets face it - it never is.
If you want to win the flag you have to finish top 4. If you cant finish top 4 - how can you really be good enough to win it? Answer is you cant.

[Life Long Saint]

Out of the 26 semi finals that have been played only two of them have resulted in a team outside the top four losing.
Neither of those two teams went on to play in the Grand Final.

Other than revenue, why do we bother having a top 8?

[dragit]

Yes, but you probably need a year or two at 5-8 before you build to top 4… Collingwood, Hawthorn, Sydney have done so… Adelaide lost first week after finishing 2nd and will get obliterated this week.

Freo, North, WCE will be looking for a top 4 spot… Tigers, Blues, Bombers will be looking to make the 8, hopefully we are a chance too but it is not likely for awhile IMO.

[dragit]

Other than revenue, why do we bother having a top 8?

Hope?
It will happen one day…
I liked that fact that we were still a chance upto round 20 this year.

[Life Long Saint]

Other than revenue, why do we bother having a top 8?

Hope?
It will happen one day…
I liked that fact that we were still a chance upto round 20 this year.

A chance for what?
To be knocked out in week one or two? To suffer the same fate as North Melbourne?

In the old final five system, only a couple of teams made it to the GF from 5th and they were belted both times but at least they made it.

In thirteen years of the current final eight system not one team outside the top four has made it past the preliminary final.
That is not hope. That is revenue!

[Con Gorozidis]

Out of the 26 semi finals that have been played only two of them have resulted in a team outside the top four losing.
Neither of those two teams went on to play in the Grand Final.

Other than revenue, why do we bother having a top 8?

And I believe those 2 were both cliffhangers - one was extra-time.

[dragit]

Other than revenue, why do we bother having a top 8?

Hope?
It will happen one day…
I liked that fact that we were still a chance upto round 20 this year.

A chance for what?
To be knocked out in week one or two? To suffer the same fate as North Melbourne?

In the old final five system, only a couple of teams made it to the GF from 5th and they were belted both times but at least they made it.

In thirteen years of the current final eight system not one team outside the top four has made it past the preliminary final.
That is not hope. That is revenue!

You have very conveniently left out the fact the Adelaide actually won a premiership from 5th…
I'll enjoy finishing 8th over missing the finals any day, could be another decade before we do then I dare say most of us will be happy for any finals appearance… we've been so spoilt this past decade, we've forgotten all about how much it sucks missing the finals every single year.

I'm sure the young North players have learnt a lesson even though they were flogged.

[WinnersOnly]

Must be top 4 and win the first final to win GF !

[Life Long Saint]

You have very conveniently left out the fact the Adelaide actually won a premiership from 5th…
...
I'm sure the young North players have learnt a lesson even though they were flogged.

Not conveniently left it out at all. Adelaide won it from 5th under the old final eight system where if you finished 5th and lost you got the double chance providing that the top 2 teams won!
Another stupid system that ranks right up there with final six system from 1991!

North have been flogged in a lot of finals this decade...In 2007 they finished fourth and played three finals. They lost the first by 106 points, won the second by 33 points and lost the 3rd by 87 points...2012 was their first series since...Remains to be seen what experience they derive from it.

[Life Long Saint]

Must be top 4 and win the first final to win GF !

Don't have to meet the 2nd criteria.
Both Sydney in 2005 and West Coast in 2006 lost their first final (ironically to each other) and went on to win the flag (ironically to each other).

[SaintPav]

You have very conveniently left out the fact the Adelaide actually won a premiership from 5th…
I'll enjoy finishing 8th over missing the finals any day, could be another decade before we do then I dare say most of us will be happy for any finals appearance… we've been so spoilt this past decade, we've forgotten all about how much it sucks missing the finals every single year.

I'm sure the young North players have learnt a lesson even though they were flogged.

didn't they lose one of their finals but continue as they were the higher ranked team? system was different then. No team has won 4 in a row or have they?

[Life Long Saint]

No team has won 4 in a row or have they?

Yep!
Adelaide in 1997.
Finished 4th - played West Coast (5th) in week 1 but didn't get a week off.
Played Geelong in week 2 (straight sets for the Cats)
Played the Bulldogs in week 3
Played us in week 4.

[dragit]

You have very conveniently left out the fact the Adelaide actually won a premiership from 5th…
I'll enjoy finishing 8th over missing the finals any day, could be another decade before we do then I dare say most of us will be happy for any finals appearance… we've been so spoilt this past decade, we've forgotten all about how much it sucks missing the finals every single year.

I'm sure the young North players have learnt a lesson even though they were flogged.

didn't they lose one of their finals but continue as they were the higher ranked team? system was different then. No team has won 4 in a row or have they?

Yes it was a different system, which allowed them to lose their first final and continue from 5th…
However what is lost from that year is the fact that they lost to Melbourne who finished 4th, but then went on to beat 3rd, 2nd and 1st (syd, dogs, north) to win the flag…

So it would be very similar to finishing 5th now assuming that you could get past the side that finished 8th… the task would be then the same - beat 3 top 4 sides…

The top 4 sides happen to make and win grand finals because they are generally better sides, although it is pretty unlikely that a team out of the 4 can make or win a grand final, it has happened and it will happen again.

[Con Gorozidis]

Wont happen very often! Will happen ~ 5% of the time tops. So wont happen 95% of the time. Im happy to be on the side of the 95%.
yet every single year people will bet on it happening.

[spert]

Apparently no team that finished outside the eight has won a premiership in AFL history.

[Dr Spaceman]

Apparently no team that finished outside the eight has won a premiership in AFL history.

Easy to say in hindsight.

[magnifisaint]

So here we are again in familiar territory in prelim final week.
Every single year - people get deluded that someone from outside the top 4 can win the flag - every year people think will be an exception. And lets face it - it never is.
If you want to win the flag you have to finish top 4. If you cant finish top 4 - how can you really be good enough to win it? Answer is you cant.

Do you ever live in hope?

[Dr Spaceman]

So here we are again in familiar territory in prelim final week.
Every single year - people get deluded that someone from outside the top 4 can win the flag - every year people think will be an exception. And lets face it - it never is.
If you want to win the flag you have to finish top 4. If you cant finish top 4 - how can you really be good enough to win it? Answer is you cant.

Do you ever live in hope?

Exactly.

If the Saints manage to finish anywhere between 5 & 8 next year I will be smothering myself in delusion

[Con Gorozidis]

ok so when was the last time a team win a flag finishing outside the top 5?

[dragit]

That's next year, Freo finish 8th, we finish on top… however they beat us in the Grand Final when BJ takes a screamer in the goal square in the last minute to put them in front.

Final Score
StK 5.7.37
Fre 6.2.38

[Sainternist]

Other than revenue, why do we bother having a top 8?

Why even bother having finals? Why not have a system like the EPL where the top side come end of home & away season wins the premiership?

Damn, that would have suited us in 2009

[Dr Spaceman]

Other than revenue, why do we bother having a top 8?

Why even bother having finals? Why not have a system like the EPL where the top side come end of home & away season wins the premiership?

Damn, that would have suited us in 2009

But we would have missed in 1966.

To Collingwood

[saintspremiers]

The final 5 was the best of the lot. It was a three teired system that gave the top team a gaurantee of a prelim final and an advantage over 2nd and 3rd.

[OneEyedSainter77]

That's next year, Freo finish 8th, we finish on top… however they beat us in the Grand Final when BJ takes a screamer in the goal square in the last minute to put them in front.

Final Score
StK 5.7.37
Fre 6.2.38

That's an insane scoreline.

No way will they kick six goal against us.

[plugger66]

Top 8 is fine. 10 sides miss out. As someone pointed out you may not win it from 5th to 8th but it could help in the next year or years. Anyway Con is right. We will probably not see many if any win it from form the bottom 4 of the 8 whilst we have the current system.