Is 2012 a realistic chance?

[Teflon]

Our seasons shot. We'll struggle to make the 8 and Im not sure we want to.

For all the talk of "start pre season now" Im concerned that 2012 may not be a realistic "shot" at a flag. Reality is we'd need to find a ruck option who is ready made NOW. McEvoy isnt a number 1 and certainly not a GF winning ruck....he looks a way off it to me.

Our kids appear ok.....Sippos enouraging, Cripss allright, Smith avge, Lynch? - who knows, Winmar ?...see Lynch....point is even if these kids and others are good enough is there really enough time in 1 pre season to expect them to rise in maturity/ability level to ably assist our current mids for a genuine shot at a flag?

I really fear at 28 we are starting to see a drop from Roo...Hayes with another knee and year older should be the ceam at this stage...not the engine.....

So if we trade a star for GWS kids - then surely we are admitting the likes of Riewoldt and Co wont see a flag. This group has missed out if so.

Either way, 2012 might be a pipe dream is all I fear - and the worry is we will innevitably become one of those mid table sides (or worse) who delude themselves that if "everything goes right" we can win the thing.

[sainter#4]

honestly,i think we have missed the boat on this group.

the gap between our stars and our youngsters is too big.

by the time they will be ready the stars will be fading or have faded.

IMO we are looking at 2015-2016 realistically at climbing the mountain again.
even then richmond melbourne may be power houses we wont be able to overcome unless we find a few gems or get lucky in our drafting/trading

[Dr Spaceman]

honestly,i think we have missed the boat on this group.

the gap between our stars and our youngsters is too big.

by the time they will be ready the stars will be fading or have faded.

IMO we are looking at 2015-2016 realistically at climbing the mountain again.
even then richmond melbourne may be power houses we wont be able to overcome unless we find a few gems or get lucky in our drafting/trading

Who knows.

But I'm sure Roo and Lenny and a few others won't be writing off 2012. They simply can't afford to.

[bobmurray]

2011 is gone...

Unless there are some decent changes at seasons end then 2012 wont be much either...

Finishing by September 4th will at least guarantee a decent pre-season for those that survive and the new blood.....

[Teflon]

honestly,i think we have missed the boat on this group.

the gap between our stars and our youngsters is too big.

by the time they will be ready the stars will be fading or have faded.

IMO we are looking at 2015-2016 realistically at climbing the mountain again.
even then richmond melbourne may be power houses we wont be able to overcome unless we find a few gems or get lucky in our drafting/trading

Who knows.

But I'm sure Roo and Lenny and a few others won't be writing off 2012. They simply can't afford to.

No doubt those guys will give their all - always have. Sadly it wasnt enough twice.

To me right now we have 2 gaping holes to be immediately fixed if we are a serious hope in 2012:

1.Is ruck - we need a genuine tap ruck that gives us first use - look at Pies rise with Jolley??
2.Mids - need to find other, classy rotations to go through the middle who can SPREAD with some speed...

I know in time some of our kids will do this - but in 1 yr?

Or do you say - this group has its last hurrah in them for 2012 and try and trade in some experienced players.....(very risky.....)

The more I think practically on it and from what Ive seen in 8 games this year I just cant help but feel this lots missed their chance.

Kills ya inside, I always knew we wouldnt stay up forever....I just never expected the drop to be so fast/hard and without a cup....

[clarky449]

Nick Riewoldt will not be a premiership player at St Kilda.

[bigcarl]

We need a much better start to the season.

One of the things overlooked in our horror year is the fact that we've played hardly any matches at home so far.

You need a few before your own fans in conditions in which you feel comfortable. Then hopefully get on a bit of a roll a la 2009.

As it is, we started badly, lost a couple of close ones, and now feel that we cannot win.

Are we a chance in 2012? Who knows, but if we are it's got to be with a gameplan that has a emphasis on scoring more heavily.

We also need someone to step into the shoes vacated by Lenny and Gardiner because we are being absolutely smashed in the middle week after week,

[dcstkfc]

One of the things overlooked in our horror year is the fact that we've played hardly any matches at home so far.

You need a few before your own fans in conditions in which you feel comfortable. Then hopefully get on a bit of a roll a la 2009.

That's an excellent point. Back in 2004 we played 8 of our first 10 at the Dome!

And then in 2009 we had 7 of our first 10.

In 2011 we have just 4 of our first 10.

[mad saint guy]

If we prepare well for next year (blood the kids, cut the deadwood, trade Gilbert for a ruck/mid/pick and generally be a lot smarter with list management), this could be the basis of the 2012 team

B: Gwilt, Dawson, ---
HB: Fisher, Walsh, Goddard
C: Montagna, Hayes, Gram
HF: Schneider, Riewoldt, Ray
F: Siposs, ---, Milne

Foll: ---, Armitage, Dal Santo
Int: McEvoy, ---, ---, ---

Retain Kosi, Geary, Dempster and Polo as solid backup. Baker, Blake, Gardiner, Peake, Jones, McQualter, Gamble all gone. I'm a fan of Raph and his top form is fantastic, but he just doesn't show it enough so he's gone as well.

Steven, Smith, Ledger, Lynch, Cripps, Winmar, Johnson, Crocker, Stanley, Archer, Simpkin to fight for 2 or 3 of the empty spots with recruits to fill the others. I have faith in Walsh making it - he is an athletic monster with surprisingly good skills and excellent timing. I don't see why he couldn't move a bit up the ground to CHB, or possibly even move forward if he's comfortable. And I've seen enough skill and poise from Siposs over the year to believe that he's a serious AFL player.

An ideal scenario could be that we trade Gilbert and a third round pick for Hamish McIntosh, who is a very good ruckman but behind a prodigy in Goldstein. Then if we could snare a skilled, running player or two (in the Wellingham, Zaharakis mould) from another side our midfield would look so much better. If any quality tall forwards become available (or someone similar to Jack Darling in the draft) then they would help immensely.

Please someone tell Ross - if a club has delisted them or doesn't demand anything for them, don't draft them. Yes, that's you Gamble, Begley, Attard, Clarke, C.Gardiner, McQualter, Eddy, M.Ferguson, Pattison, L.Fisher, J.Smith, Howard and Attard. That's 13 spots wasted under Lyon's reign. But they were all late picks destined to fail you say? How about long shots such as our own Gwilt, S.Fisher, Milne or other team's successes in Sandilands, Cox, Barlow, Hill, Thomas, Warnock, Stokes, Knights etc.

Even if all of this does eventuate, I'm not 100% sure that this core is good enough anymore. Riewoldt's marking used to be utterly incredible and is now mediocre for a tall forward and he can't kick a goal from more than 20m out. Lyon introduced a style of game that was all about effort, pressure and tactics. The rest of the comp has trumped this by playing a game about effort, pressure, tactics, pace and skill. The last two are things that we do not have an abundance of on our best day.

[plugger66]

One of the things overlooked in our horror year is the fact that we've played hardly any matches at home so far.

You need a few before your own fans in conditions in which you feel comfortable. Then hopefully get on a bit of a roll a la 2009.

That's an excellent point. Back in 2004 we played 8 of our first 10 at the Dome!

And then in 2009 we had 7 of our first 10.

In 2011 we have just 4 of our first 10.

Its not a good point. We have played at the G 3 times which shouldnt worry us at all and twice interstate and have our only win there. If we cant play at the G then why even make the finals.

[BigMart]

Yes

But

Collingwood, carlton, essendon will be cherry ripe

I think the eagles are building, dockers and crows ok

Likely top 4 team
Collingwood....2011-2015
Carlton..........2012-2015
Hawthorn......2012-2014
Geelong........2012
Essendon.......2013-2016
Gold coast.....2015-

Freo, adelaide, sydney, bulldogs, melbourne, richmond, north
All top 8 sides over the next few years

Brisbane, port, gws have not got a lot to look fwd to

[Johnny Member]

I think we're cactus.


The game plan we've played, requires 100% effort for 4 quarters - which we can't deliver.

It also requires mature bodies and heads to execute it.

It's also been highly suspect, when our gun players aren't putting in huge individual performances.

It seems to require the unique balance of steady, rock solid guys like Baker and Blake playing certain roles, and freak attacking players like BJ and Roo playing other roles.



Even if we rediscover the 100% effort required in time for the 2012 season, I have doubts as to whether our gun players are still in the top echelon of the comp.
I mean, Roo can't kick and Lenny's surely not going to be the same with a reco at 32. And Joey isn't the same player without a guy like Lenny in the team.

With the introduction of young guys, they won't have the physical maturity and fitness to play 4 quarters of 'Saints footy'.

And we've completely lost the 'rock solid' element to our team.
Only last year, and certainly in 2009, you could lock in the fact that Jones would not let you down in doing his job. Blake would do his job every week, and Bakes was as solid as they came.
That's changed.


So basically, it's unravelling. And based on my opinions above, I can't see it being fixed for next year.

[Zed]

the list of talent that got us into the 2009 and 2010 GF's hasnt changed. Our game plan has been adopted by almost every other team and our our belief systems and hunger have taken a hit.

We've got some good kids get some games now. What needs to happen is:
* the coaching staff need to adapt our game plan
* give the kids with excellent foot skills more games
* book in everyone who could benefit from an operation now
* give mentally tired players time away overseas
* start nurturing the belief systems and hunger for the 2012 season

[Johnny Member]

the list of talent that got us into the 2009 and 2010 GF's hasnt changed. Our game plan has been adopted by almost every other team and our our belief systems and hunger have taken a hit.

We've got some good kids get some games now. What needs to happen is:
* the coaching staff need to adapt our game plan
* give the kids with excellent foot skills more games
* book in everyone who could benefit from an operation now
* give mentally tired players time away overseas
* start nurturing the belief systems and hunger for the 2012 season

I don't think our game plan has been adopted by other teams.

I think elements of it have. But certainly not the whole thing.


And the irony is, that the parts they've all adopted, are the parts that are rendering our game plan useless.


ie. our game plan doesn't work against our game plan.

[borderbarry]

if a club has delisted them or doesn't demand anything for them, don't draft them. Yes, that's you Gamble, Begley, Attard, Clarke, C.Gardiner, McQualter, Eddy, M.Ferguson, Pattison, L.Fisher, J.Smith, Howard and Attard. That's 13 spots wasted under Lyon's reign. But they were all late picks destined to fail you say?
Dean Polo belongs in there too, and Lovett, so that makes 15 spots. Quite a lot in such a short time, and add to that those that have been a success, namely King, M. Gardiner, Ray, Dawson, Dempster,(have I missed any?) Thats 20 plus Schneider. Gardiner may have been taken before Lyons got appointed. not sure. Anyway far too many recruiting spots have gone to these rejects from other clubs. If we had only taken half of them, thats 10 more youngsters we would have had in that period.

[Teflon]

I think we're cactus.


The game plan we've played, requires 100% effort for 4 quarters - which we can't deliver.

It also requires mature bodies and heads to execute it.

It's also been highly suspect, when our gun players aren't putting in huge individual performances.

It seems to require the unique balance of steady, rock solid guys like Baker and Blake playing certain roles, and freak attacking players like BJ and Roo playing other roles.



Even if we rediscover the 100% effort required in time for the 2012 season, I have doubts as to whether our gun players are still in the top echelon of the comp.
I mean, Roo can't kick and Lenny's surely not going to be the same with a reco at 32. And Joey isn't the same player without a guy like Lenny in the team.

With the introduction of young guys, they won't have the physical maturity and fitness to play 4 quarters of 'Saints footy'.

And we've completely lost the 'rock solid' element to our team.
Only last year, and certainly in 2009, you could lock in the fact that Jones would not let you down in doing his job. Blake would do his job every week, and Bakes was as solid as they came.
That's changed.


So basically, it's unravelling. And based on my opinions above, I can't see it being fixed for next year.

Mature heads/bodies are required for the 2009 game plan.....could we revamp this to an outside Essendon style (still with defensive focus) and rely more on our kids?

Still a tough ask in 1 year...ah well..

[SainterK]

I think we're cactus.


The game plan we've played, requires 100% effort for 4 quarters - which we can't deliver.

It also requires mature bodies and heads to execute it.

It's also been highly suspect, when our gun players aren't putting in huge individual performances.

It seems to require the unique balance of steady, rock solid guys like Baker and Blake playing certain roles, and freak attacking players like BJ and Roo playing other roles.

Even if we rediscover the 100% effort required in time for the 2012 season, I have doubts as to whether our gun players are still in the top echelon of the comp.
I mean, Roo can't kick and Lenny's surely not going to be the same with a reco at 32. And Joey isn't the same player without a guy like Lenny in the team.

With the introduction of young guys, they won't have the physical maturity and fitness to play 4 quarters of 'Saints footy'.

And we've completely lost the 'rock solid' element to our team.
Only last year, and certainly in 2009, you could lock in the fact that Jones would not let you down in doing his job. Blake would do his job every week, and Bakes was as solid as they came.
That's changed.

So basically, it's unravelling. And based on my opinions above, I can't see it being fixed for next year.

I am pretty confident that every game plan requires it's players to put in for four quarters.

Especially now the comp is so even.

Disagree that the kind of effort required is exclusive to us.

Watched the likes of Essendon and WC lately?

Think we've show the younger teams the kind of discipline that is required, not them showing us that freedom and fun wins games of footy.

[skeptic]

i think providing we start doing hte right thing now, the answer is yes

[Johnny Member]

I am pretty confident that every game plan requires it's players to put in for four quarters.

So am I.

Disagree that the kind of effort required is exclusive to us.

I don't think it's exclusive to us.

[Sainternist]

FFS, can we stop talking 2012 and just be in the moment?

[White Winmar]

Gee that's an ugly list you've come up with there Border Barry.

[saintdooley]

to answer the question, absolutely no F^ck!n* chance.

[Teflon]

FFS, can we stop talking 2012 and just be in the moment?

why would we want to "live in this moment" when the only bright spot is the friggin future?

[plugger66]

I think we are a chance if we take up planking.

[Teflon]

I think we are a chance if we take up planking.

Whack a "W" in front of it and I reckon you've been doing it for years...