History is against the Saints in 2010
Moderators: Saintsational Administrators, Saintsational Moderators
-
- Club Player
- Posts: 47
- Joined: Mon 17 Aug 2009 4:44pm
History is against the Saints in 2010
Apart from the dreadful form of this last month shown by the Saints, a glance at the history books shows that a flag will be beyond us in 2010.
Its more or less a foregone conclusion that Collingwood and Geelong will finish 1 & 2 for the season. And none but the most one-eyed and delusional fan would deny that they are there on merit. Both sides are playing exceptionally good and confident football. The most compelling argument against our chances for the premiership is history:
The last time a team won from outside of the top four was in 1998 (when Adelaide won from 5th) since then the flag has only gone to 1st or 2nd on the H&A ladder, with two wins to the 3rd placed side.
Not only will we need a miracle on a scale of Lazarus with our form, but we would need to do something (win from outside the top 3) that has not been done for twelve seasons.
Forget about 2010 flag chances and just enjoy watching the game! and get ready for another attempt in 2011
Its more or less a foregone conclusion that Collingwood and Geelong will finish 1 & 2 for the season. And none but the most one-eyed and delusional fan would deny that they are there on merit. Both sides are playing exceptionally good and confident football. The most compelling argument against our chances for the premiership is history:
The last time a team won from outside of the top four was in 1998 (when Adelaide won from 5th) since then the flag has only gone to 1st or 2nd on the H&A ladder, with two wins to the 3rd placed side.
Not only will we need a miracle on a scale of Lazarus with our form, but we would need to do something (win from outside the top 3) that has not been done for twelve seasons.
Forget about 2010 flag chances and just enjoy watching the game! and get ready for another attempt in 2011
Yus my dear!!!!!
-
- Saintsational Legend
- Posts: 6043
- Joined: Mon 21 May 2007 5:31pm
- Location: Currumbin, Quoinslairnd
Firstly, f*** off with your pessimism. I will never give up on 'em even if the slump carries on to Rd 22.
Secondly, Geelong are playing same old, same old.
Dogs and Pies are clearly the two best sides as at Rd 18.
But a lot can happen in a month, good and bad.
Geelong may burst a bubble this weekend. Pies may over cook the goose. Dogs may lose Hall. Who knows?
Meanwhile we may carve Port a new freckle and get back on track.
There is time if there is hunger.
Secondly, Geelong are playing same old, same old.
Dogs and Pies are clearly the two best sides as at Rd 18.
But a lot can happen in a month, good and bad.
Geelong may burst a bubble this weekend. Pies may over cook the goose. Dogs may lose Hall. Who knows?
Meanwhile we may carve Port a new freckle and get back on track.
There is time if there is hunger.
"The inches we need are everywhere around us. They're in every break in the game. Every minute, every second. On this team we fight for that inch. On this team we tear ourselves and everyone around us to pieces for that inch. We claw with our fingernails for that inch. Because we know when we add up all those inches that's gonna make the f***in' difference between winning and losing! Between living and dying!'
-
- Club Player
- Posts: 47
- Joined: Mon 17 Aug 2009 4:44pm
Classy response thinline!
Try READING THE POST SLOWLY AND TRY TO DIGEST WHAT I WAS SAYING I'm NOT asking people to give up on them...simply saying that history and current form point toward another blank season, enjoy going to the game and dont get disappointed at the inevitable outcome!
I'd settle for Geelongs "same old same old" any time! by7 the way!
![Rolling Eyes :roll:](./images/smilies/icon_rolleyes.gif)
I'd settle for Geelongs "same old same old" any time! by7 the way!
Yus my dear!!!!!
we are still in 3rd - and playing 4 sides in the bottom 8 on the run to the finals so i wouldn't put us outside the top 3 just yet!!!! the boys just need to find a bit of form and the next few weeks would be a great time to do it!!
or maybe we should drop Riewoldt we were going well till he came back![Wink :wink:](./images/smilies/icon_wink.gif)
or maybe we should drop Riewoldt we were going well till he came back
![Wink :wink:](./images/smilies/icon_wink.gif)
-
- Saintsational Legend
- Posts: 6043
- Joined: Mon 21 May 2007 5:31pm
- Location: Currumbin, Quoinslairnd
It was written with an "i'm not buying the pessimism line" disregard.Arthur Mullard wrote:Classy response thinline!Try READING THE POST SLOWLY AND TRY TO DIGEST WHAT I WAS SAYING I'm NOT asking people to give up on them...simply saying that history and current form point toward another blank season, enjoy going to the game and dont get disappointed at the inevitable outcome!
I'd settle for Geelongs "same old same old" any time! by7 the way!
No personal offence intended at all.
"The inches we need are everywhere around us. They're in every break in the game. Every minute, every second. On this team we fight for that inch. On this team we tear ourselves and everyone around us to pieces for that inch. We claw with our fingernails for that inch. Because we know when we add up all those inches that's gonna make the f***in' difference between winning and losing! Between living and dying!'
-
- Club Player
- Posts: 47
- Joined: Mon 17 Aug 2009 4:44pm
Lets take a look at what we have got:
Kosi playing like a donkey. Forwards who cant kick a 3 figure score.
Defenders who were given the runaround in the last three games.
And what are we pinning OUR hopes on?....Oh yeah
"geelong may burst a bubble, pies may get overconfident, Dogs may lose hall" WOW!!!!! I take it all back!!! With that logic we're a shho-in!!!!
![Rolling Eyes :roll:](./images/smilies/icon_rolleyes.gif)
Kosi playing like a donkey. Forwards who cant kick a 3 figure score.
Defenders who were given the runaround in the last three games.
And what are we pinning OUR hopes on?....Oh yeah
"geelong may burst a bubble, pies may get overconfident, Dogs may lose hall" WOW!!!!! I take it all back!!! With that logic we're a shho-in!!!!
![Laughing :lol:](./images/smilies/icon_lol.gif)
![Rolling Eyes :roll:](./images/smilies/icon_rolleyes.gif)
Yus my dear!!!!!
-
- Club Player
- Posts: 47
- Joined: Mon 17 Aug 2009 4:44pm
-
- Saintsational Legend
- Posts: 6043
- Joined: Mon 21 May 2007 5:31pm
- Location: Currumbin, Quoinslairnd
So you DON'T believe we can turn it around and/or the competition's dynamics can change in a month.Arthur Mullard wrote:Lets take a look at what we have got:
Kosi playing like a donkey. Forwards who cant kick a 3 figure score.
Defenders who were given the runaround in the last three games.
And what are we pinning our hopes on?....Oh yeah
"geelong may burst a bubble, pies may get overconfident, Dogs may lose hall" WOW!!!!! I take it all back!!! With that logic we're a shho-in!!!!![]()
And you suggest everyone forget about 2010 - "Forget about 2010 flag chances and just enjoy watching the game! and get ready for another attempt in 2011".
Oh. But that's somehow NOT asking people to give up.
And yet you take apparent offence at being referred to as pessimistic.
Fair dinkum. She's been a weird old couple of days around here.
A month is a massive time in football. I'll watch that month unfold before I pack away the scarf and beanie for the year. Anything could happen yet. Freo could claim a first week home final. Geelong could belt Collingwood into submissive self doubt. Any number of players could get injured. Any number of winnable games could be lost.
In short nothing is predetermined.
You obviously disagree?
"The inches we need are everywhere around us. They're in every break in the game. Every minute, every second. On this team we fight for that inch. On this team we tear ourselves and everyone around us to pieces for that inch. We claw with our fingernails for that inch. Because we know when we add up all those inches that's gonna make the f***in' difference between winning and losing! Between living and dying!'
-
- Saintsational Legend
- Posts: 6043
- Joined: Mon 21 May 2007 5:31pm
- Location: Currumbin, Quoinslairnd
Ah. A child.Arthur Mullard wrote:Hey Thinline! stick it!!!!!!
Back to your x-box, unsqueezed zits, and dreams of Miley Cyrus, kiddo.
Leave you to it.
"The inches we need are everywhere around us. They're in every break in the game. Every minute, every second. On this team we fight for that inch. On this team we tear ourselves and everyone around us to pieces for that inch. We claw with our fingernails for that inch. Because we know when we add up all those inches that's gonna make the f***in' difference between winning and losing! Between living and dying!'
-
- Saintsational Legend
- Posts: 9370
- Joined: Wed 03 Aug 2005 10:01pm
- Has thanked: 657 times
- Been thanked: 498 times
I EXPECT nothing from the season.
However, I always BELIEVE that while there's a chance of winning we should back the side to win!
I have to admit that its not looking as rosy at round 18 as it did last year, but if you read Rohan Connolly (that well known Magpie!) in the Age today you should take some heart Arthur me boy!!!!
![Rolling Eyes :roll:](./images/smilies/icon_rolleyes.gif)
I have to admit that its not looking as rosy at round 18 as it did last year, but if you read Rohan Connolly (that well known Magpie!) in the Age today you should take some heart Arthur me boy!!!!
St Kilda forever ![🔴](//cdn.jsdelivr.net/gh/twitter/twemoji@latest/assets/svg/1f534.svg)
![⚪️](//cdn.jsdelivr.net/gh/twitter/twemoji@latest/assets/svg/26aa.svg)
( God help me)
- saintsRrising
- Saintsational Legend
- Posts: 30089
- Joined: Mon 15 Mar 2004 11:07am
- Location: Melbourne
- Has thanked: 711 times
- Been thanked: 1233 times
If the Saints finish Top 4, then where you finish the H&A this year will not matter.
YES our current form is of great concern and in particular at Pies, Cats and Dogs are hitting their straps at present.
However last year Cats were dipping round about now..but ending up winning.
Saints were still dominating, but missed out on that final day.
What matters if we make Top 4 is Sept form.
However we need to make top 4 still and so rediscover good form now.
This weekends game will show a lot, one way or the other...
YES our current form is of great concern and in particular at Pies, Cats and Dogs are hitting their straps at present.
However last year Cats were dipping round about now..but ending up winning.
Saints were still dominating, but missed out on that final day.
What matters if we make Top 4 is Sept form.
However we need to make top 4 still and so rediscover good form now.
This weekends game will show a lot, one way or the other...
Flying the World in comfort thanks to FF Points....
-
- Saintsational Legend
- Posts: 9370
- Joined: Wed 03 Aug 2005 10:01pm
- Has thanked: 657 times
- Been thanked: 498 times
-
- Saintsational Legend
- Posts: 4887
- Joined: Fri 05 Jun 2009 3:05pm
- Has thanked: 330 times
- Been thanked: 465 times
08 - Hawks lost to us in Rd 17 and lost to the tiges Rd 21.
07 - Pies finish 5th. Beat WC who lost Cousins, Kerr and Judd who is on one leg. Win final in extra time and lose prelim by a kick to possibly greatest team ever.
05 - Swans lost first final. Were behind all game in 1st semi, and fell over line more due to cats losing all their players through injury rather than any good play.
03 - Lions lose first final. make GF with reportedly 17 fit players and 5 blokes who wouldn't have played if it was any otehr game.
02 - pies fall into top 4 with 13 wins (playing horribly in last 2 mths of H&A season) Win first final against Port and go on to nearly snatch improbable win.
My Point? Still an awful long way to go. Things can change quickly. Our form may get worse (1998) and we drop away completely. Our form might stagnate OR it may get better. It's a ride - don't give up. I have faith in RL and what he's trying to do. Starting posts about history is against us is ridiculous. We are currently third. Who says we will drop beyond that? Top 2 generally have been successful b/c of the interstate teams that have historically made the finals in the past 12 years. this year will be all Victorian, so there is no home ground advantage. Top 2 is no more advantageous than top 4.
Finals are a different ball game.
07 - Pies finish 5th. Beat WC who lost Cousins, Kerr and Judd who is on one leg. Win final in extra time and lose prelim by a kick to possibly greatest team ever.
05 - Swans lost first final. Were behind all game in 1st semi, and fell over line more due to cats losing all their players through injury rather than any good play.
03 - Lions lose first final. make GF with reportedly 17 fit players and 5 blokes who wouldn't have played if it was any otehr game.
02 - pies fall into top 4 with 13 wins (playing horribly in last 2 mths of H&A season) Win first final against Port and go on to nearly snatch improbable win.
My Point? Still an awful long way to go. Things can change quickly. Our form may get worse (1998) and we drop away completely. Our form might stagnate OR it may get better. It's a ride - don't give up. I have faith in RL and what he's trying to do. Starting posts about history is against us is ridiculous. We are currently third. Who says we will drop beyond that? Top 2 generally have been successful b/c of the interstate teams that have historically made the finals in the past 12 years. this year will be all Victorian, so there is no home ground advantage. Top 2 is no more advantageous than top 4.
Finals are a different ball game.
-
- Saintsational Legend
- Posts: 18579
- Joined: Thu 11 Mar 2004 1:36am
- Has thanked: 1905 times
- Been thanked: 843 times
well saidThinline wrote:Firstly, f*** off with your pessimism. I will never give up on 'em even if the slump carries on to Rd 22.
Secondly, Geelong are playing same old, same old.
Dogs and Pies are clearly the two best sides as at Rd 18.
But a lot can happen in a month, good and bad.
Geelong may burst a bubble this weekend. Pies may over cook the goose. Dogs may lose Hall. Who knows?
Meanwhile we may carve Port a new freckle and get back on track.
There is time if there is hunger.
- InkerSaint
- SS Hall of Fame
- Posts: 2132
- Joined: Wed 07 Jan 2009 3:06pm
I actually thought you got the response you deserved... but since you're after a dispassionate response:Arthur Mullard wrote:Classy response thinline!Try READING THE POST SLOWLY AND TRY TO DIGEST WHAT I WAS SAYING I'm NOT asking people to give up on them...simply saying that history and current form point toward another blank season, enjoy going to the game and dont get disappointed at the inevitable outcome!
I'd settle for Geelongs "same old same old" any time! by7 the way!
There are lies, damned lies, and statistics.
Under the McIntyre final 8 system there have been 7 of 16 Grand Finals where 1st played 2nd, making the last 3 years an abberation. Even if the top 8 remains unchanged it is statistically unlikely that this year's Grand Finalists will be Collingwood and Geelong.
However in that same period the minor premier has only missed the Grand Final 4 times.
Interestingly, in that position, the minor premier only has a 50-50 chance of winning the flag. The strike rate actually gets a little better for those who don't finish on top.
Add to that the statistic that where last year's minor premier wins this year's flag... I predict a Saints-Magpies Grand Final. Saints Premiers.
"... You want to pose a threat to the opposition in as many ways as you can, both defensively and offensively. We've got a responsibility to explore all those possibilities - and we will."
Re: History is against the Saints in 2010
Let's look at the Grand Finals since 2000 when the new system was introduced:Arthur Mullard wrote:Apart from the dreadful form of this last month shown by the Saints, a glance at the history books shows that a flag will be beyond us in 2010.
Its more or less a foregone conclusion that Collingwood and Geelong will finish 1 & 2 for the season. And none but the most one-eyed and delusional fan would deny that they are there on merit. Both sides are playing exceptionally good and confident football. The most compelling argument against our chances for the premiership is history:
The last time a team won from outside of the top four was in 1998 (when Adelaide won from 5th) since then the flag has only gone to 1st or 2nd on the H&A ladder, with two wins to the 3rd placed side.
Not only will we need a miracle on a scale of Lazarus with our form, but we would need to do something (win from outside the top 3) that has not been done for twelve seasons.
Forget about 2010 flag chances and just enjoy watching the game! and get ready for another attempt in 2011
2000: Essendon 1st at end of HnA season d Melbourne 3rd at end of HnA season
2001: BL 2nd d Ess 1st
2002: BL 2nd d Coll 4th
2003: BL 3rd d Coll 2nd
2004: PA 1st d BL 2nd
2005: Syd 3rd d WCE 2nd
2006: WCE 1st d Syd 4th
2007: Geel 1st d PA 2nd
2008: Haw 2nd d Geel 1st
2009: Geel 2nd d StK 1st
So for each top 4 position:
1st: 4 premiership, 3 runners-up
2nd: 4 flags, 4 ru
3rd: 2 flags, 1 ru
4th: 2 ru
Top 4 have filled 38 of 40 prelim spots
so a flag from 3rd is less likely than from top 2, but not impossible
Last edited by dcstkfc on Mon 02 Aug 2010 2:30pm, edited 1 time in total.
STRENGTH THROUGH LOYALTY.
''I still get really excited, and I've got the '66 thing up on the wall in a frame … You look at it and think: one day, we want to achieve that.''- Arryn Siposs
''I still get really excited, and I've got the '66 thing up on the wall in a frame … You look at it and think: one day, we want to achieve that.''- Arryn Siposs
- InkerSaint
- SS Hall of Fame
- Posts: 2132
- Joined: Wed 07 Jan 2009 3:06pm
Re: History is against the Saints in 2010
Yes but you're forgetting that the law of averages is to re-assert itself. The last 3 years have been an abnormal streak of 1 vs. 2 - the streak is more likely to finish sooner rather than later.dcstkfc wrote:so a flag from 3rd is less likely than from top 2, but not impossible
"... You want to pose a threat to the opposition in as many ways as you can, both defensively and offensively. We've got a responsibility to explore all those possibilities - and we will."
-
- Saintsational Legend
- Posts: 4887
- Joined: Fri 05 Jun 2009 3:05pm
- Has thanked: 330 times
- Been thanked: 465 times
Re: History is against the Saints in 2010
Minor correction. 4th has finished runners up twice NOT once.dcstkfc wrote:Let's look at the Grand Finals since 2000 when the new system was introduced:Arthur Mullard wrote:Apart from the dreadful form of this last month shown by the Saints, a glance at the history books shows that a flag will be beyond us in 2010.
Its more or less a foregone conclusion that Collingwood and Geelong will finish 1 & 2 for the season. And none but the most one-eyed and delusional fan would deny that they are there on merit. Both sides are playing exceptionally good and confident football. The most compelling argument against our chances for the premiership is history:
The last time a team won from outside of the top four was in 1998 (when Adelaide won from 5th) since then the flag has only gone to 1st or 2nd on the H&A ladder, with two wins to the 3rd placed side.
Not only will we need a miracle on a scale of Lazarus with our form, but we would need to do something (win from outside the top 3) that has not been done for twelve seasons.
Forget about 2010 flag chances and just enjoy watching the game! and get ready for another attempt in 2011
2000: Essendon 1st at end of HnA season d Melbourne 3rd at end of HnA season
2001: BL 2nd d Ess 1st
2002: BL 2nd d Coll 4th
2003: BL 3rd d Coll 2nd
2004: PA 1st d BL 2nd
2005: Syd 3rd d WCE 2nd
2006: WCE 1st d Syd 4th
2007: Geel 1st d PA 2nd
2008: Haw 2nd d Geel 1st
2009: Geel 2nd d StK 1st
So for each top 4 position:
1st: 4 premiership, 3 runners-up
2nd: 4 flags, 4 ru
3rd: 2 flags, 1 ru
4th: 1 ru
Top 4 have filled 38 of 40 prelim spots
so a flag from 3rd is less likely than from top 2, but not impossible
Re: History is against the Saints in 2010
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gambler's_fallacyInkerSaint wrote:Yes but you're forgetting that the law of averages is to re-assert itself. The last 3 years have been an abnormal streak of 1 vs. 2 - the streak is more likely to finish sooner rather than later.dcstkfc wrote:so a flag from 3rd is less likely than from top 2, but not impossible
STRENGTH THROUGH LOYALTY.
''I still get really excited, and I've got the '66 thing up on the wall in a frame … You look at it and think: one day, we want to achieve that.''- Arryn Siposs
''I still get really excited, and I've got the '66 thing up on the wall in a frame … You look at it and think: one day, we want to achieve that.''- Arryn Siposs
- InkerSaint
- SS Hall of Fame
- Posts: 2132
- Joined: Wed 07 Jan 2009 3:06pm
Re: History is against the Saints in 2010
Oh go ahead, spoil the fun why don't you.dcstkfc wrote:http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gambler's_fallacyInkerSaint wrote:Yes but you're forgetting that the law of averages is to re-assert itself. The last 3 years have been an abnormal streak of 1 vs. 2 - the streak is more likely to finish sooner rather than later.dcstkfc wrote:so a flag from 3rd is less likely than from top 2, but not impossible
![Razz :P](./images/smilies/icon_razz.gif)
Which changes nothing, the OP is still refuted - history proves nothing.
"... You want to pose a threat to the opposition in as many ways as you can, both defensively and offensively. We've got a responsibility to explore all those possibilities - and we will."
-
- Saintsational Legend
- Posts: 11322
- Joined: Thu 11 Mar 2004 12:57am
- Location: South of Heaven
- Has thanked: 1312 times
- Been thanked: 447 times
Arthur, it's no great revelation that the odds are starting to stack up against us. However, this would make a premiership all the more sweeter, should we completely defy this so called "foregone conclusion".
Hold the phone a second! We're in the top 4. Fans of teams like Hawthorn would be crawling across hot coals in order to see their team get that kind of poll position and a double chance come September.
History schmistory... We have 4 rounds of H&A footy and then THE FINALS.
Shouldn't we be excited about this prospect instead?![Confused :?](./images/smilies/icon_confused.gif)
Hold the phone a second! We're in the top 4. Fans of teams like Hawthorn would be crawling across hot coals in order to see their team get that kind of poll position and a double chance come September.
History schmistory... We have 4 rounds of H&A footy and then THE FINALS.
Shouldn't we be excited about this prospect instead?
![Confused :?](./images/smilies/icon_confused.gif)
Curb your enthusiasm - you’re a St.Kilda supporter!!
![Image](https://i.imgur.com/LkJcQq3.jpg?2)
![Image](https://i.imgur.com/LkJcQq3.jpg?2)