Where we are and what we need to do

[3rd generation saint]

I'm looking at where we we're this time last year compared to this year. At this time last year we we're undefeated and peaking. We had just belted Adelaide and Bulldogs in successive weeks at Etihad and we looked unstoppable.
Of course we all worried about Geelong, who this time last year we're struggling, but winning, but just, they fell in about three weeks in games they rightfully should have lost.
Collingwood are like us this year and we are like Geelong last year.
Over the next few weeks, we have to really start getting it together, yes we have been winning, but we have been far from impressive on a regular basis this year.
We must start with the Bombers next week, it's not a matter of just winning, we have to start winning with authority, we need the percentage because we are effectively 2 games behind the filth.
If we want to win this marathon, we must start our run to the finish about now.
Our forward line started working last night, we have the best weapons of any of the top 4 sides.
If we can get it working to it's full potential, we should belt everyone over the next 5 weeks and have a really good run into the finals.

[saintnick12]

I'm looking at where we we're this time last year compared to this year. At this time last year we we're undefeated and peaking. We had just belted Adelaide and Bulldogs in successive weeks at Etihad and we looked unstoppable.
Of course we all worried about Geelong, who this time last year we're struggling, but winning, but just, they fell in about three weeks in games they rightfully should have lost.
Collingwood are like us this year and we are like Geelong last year.
Over the next few weeks, we have to really start getting it together, yes we have been winning, but we have been far from impressive on a regular basis this year.
We must start with the Bombers next week, it's not a matter of just winning, we have to start winning with authority, we need the percentage because we are effectively 2 games behind the filth.
If we want to win this marathon, we must start our run to the finish about now.
Our forward line started working last night, we have the best weapons of any of the top 4 sides.
If we can get it working to it's full potential, we should belt everyone over the next 5 weeks and have a really good run into the finals.

Don't think we can catch Collingwood on percentage. We need to rely on them losing. They are playing Hawks and Cats in the run home, so its possible. You never know, maybel the blues could beat them next week. We need to win every game on the run home. Mind you, if the Dogs win today we are 6 points clear of 4th so should be ok from there. Its in our hands. Doesn't make any difference if we finish second or third seeing the top three will all be vic teams more than likely.

[Dan Warna]

aye we are 4 full points behind the pies.

first place is a key because its a passage to the 3rd round of the finals. The dogs or freo are a weak link atm in final 4.

That said if the saints drop more and the hawks keep rising, they'll seriously put the cats to fright.

could have beaten the cats and us and would be a different ball scenario atm.

I would say on current form...

1. Cats
2. Pies
3. Hawks
4. Us

[saint vince]

aye we are 4 full points behind the pies.

first place is a key because its a passage to the 3rd round of the finals. The dogs or freo are a weak link atm in final 4.

That said if the saints drop more and the hawks keep rising, they'll seriously put the cats to fright.

could have beaten the cats and us and would be a different ball scenario atm.

I would say on current form...

1. Cats
2. Pies
3. Hawks
4. Us

Are you saying that is what you think the final 4 will be because if that is the case we need to lose at least 3 games on the run home. If we do then we may as well give up I rekon.

[saintsRrising]

aye we are 4 full points behind the pies.

first place is a key because its a passage to the 3rd round of the finals.

I don't think you know how the finals system works......and by the way if the Hawks make the Top 4 it will be 4th as there is no way they will overtake the Saints.

Re Top 4...If Victorian Teams take the Top 2 spots then that eliminates any chance of playing Freo in Freo and in which case finishing 1st has no real difference to finishing anywhere else in the Top 4.

Vic Teams will play at the G...and Freo will play at the G if they finish Top 4..

If Freo lose week 1 after finishing Top 4 they play in Freo against a team from outside the 8.

[saintnick12]

aye we are 4 full points behind the pies.

first place is a key because its a passage to the 3rd round of the finals.

I don't think you know how the finals system works......and by the way if the Hawks make the Top 4 it will be 4th as there is no way they will overtake the Saints.

Re Top 4...If Victorian Teams take the Top 2 spots then that eliminates any chance of playing Freo in Freo and in which case finishing 1st has no real difference to finishing anywhere else in the Top 4.

Vic Teams will play at the G...and Freo will play at the G.

If Freo lose week 1 after finishing Top 4 they play in Freo againsta team from outside the 8.

Last year we finished top, but ended up with the harder prelim v the dogs. If fourth is clearly behind the other which has been the past few years, the top team gets the softer game in week one, but the harder one in the prelim. Same for Geelong in 2008 when top three were clear of us scraping into 4th. FInished top, got the perceived softer game in week 1 vs us, but had to play dogs in the prelim, while the hawks who finished second got the perceived softer game against us.
If we finish second or third and geelong ends up top we'll play collingwood week one, and if we won and games go according to grading could get Freo in a home prelim. That would be an interesting result, as Geelong would have to play Collingwood in a home prelim despite finishing top It depends each year on the relative strength of the sides. Some years the gap is bigger than others. I think Hawthorn will make a prelim wherever they finish, causing problems with the normal order of the top 4...I hope its not us that they knock out

[mbogo]

The first final between second and third - which will be between us and Geelong or Coll will be a cut-throat affair - with the loser most likely playing Hawthorn the following week in a knockout match.
Not something that we should relish.
Nevertheless we probably have to beat all three of these teams to win it this year anyway. But we need to make it over three games - not four. That second week's rest will be crucial.

[Sawf]

I don't know for certain, but I would suggest that Dan Warna is saying that in terms of how teams are performing at the minute, he would rate them in this order:

1. Cats
2. Pies
3. Hawks
4. Us

This isn't how he expects the top 4 to finish...

Also, I agree that finishing 1st is key because playing Freo or the Dogs first up will pretty much guarantee the following week off. This only changes if the Hawks manage to sneak into 4th spot.

Again, I think this is what Dan was getting at with his reference to the importance of top spot - not where games will be played, but the quality of the opposition in week 1 of the finals.

[mbogo]

We have almost zero chance of finishing first even if we win all remaining games. Coll would have to lose to both Geel and Hawth - but Geel then would need to lose another and that is not gonna happen and we cannot catch Coll percent wise.

[saintsRrising]

Too early to say as where everyone will finish is unknown,

For example if Hawks stay 6th...then in the Prelim 1st if they win week one will play the Hawks.


You will have to know the final finishing order before knowing whether first is any real advantage.

Personally I don't mind the Cats in week one as I believe we match up very well against them. If Dogs and Freo hold onto 5 and 6th..you would then play Dogs or Freo in the Prelim if we knock over the Ctas and I believe we can.

But again finishing order is unknown...and so therefore whether 1 is better than 2/3 is also unknown.

[saintsRrising]

We have almost zero chance of finishing first even if we win all remaining games. Coll would have to lose to both Geel and Hawth - but Geel then would need to lose another and that is not gonna happen and we cannot catch Coll percent wise.

Agree...we will be 2nd or 3rd in the most likely scenarios.

[mbogo]

Too early to say as where everyone will finish is unknown,
For example if Hawks stay 6th...then in the Prelim 1st if they win week one will play the Hawks.
You will have to know the final finishing order before knowing whether first is any real advantage.
Personally I don't mind the Cats in week one as I believe we match up very well against them. If Dogs and Freo hold onto 5 and 6th..you would then play Dogs or Freo in the Prelim if we knock over the Ctas and I believe we can.
But again finishing order is unknown...and so therefore whether 1 is better than 2/3 is also unknown.

True - but if Hawks finish 6th and win in the first week - the loser of our first game plays them. Very likely!
Playing 4th (for the first team) has to be an advantage - unless Hawks sneak past both Foots and Freo.
But of course anything COULD happen.