List Analysis - Drafting for our window

[BackFromUSA]

IMHO we have a current window of 3 to a maximum of 5 years to win Premierships with our list. Our best chances will be 2010 - 2012 but while Roo and Kosi still hold down the key forward posts the window will stay open so perhaps 2013 and 2014.

This is our list with DOB split into categories and from oldest to youngest in each category. Notice that our core talent sits within a 3 year range and this is the core that the next 3 to 5 years will be built on and around.

Senior Players:

Hayes, Lenny 14.01.80
Milne, Stephen 08.03.80
Baker, Steven 22.05.80
Blake, Jason 15.03.81
Fisher, Sam 10.07.82
Koschitzke, Justin 20.09.82
Riewoldt, Nick 17.10.82
Lovett, Andrew 11.11.82
Peake, Brett 05.07.83
Montagna, Leigh 02.11.83
Jones, Clinton 02.02.84
Dal Santo, Nick 22.02.84
Gram, Jason 27.04.84
Schneider, Adam 12.05.84
Ball, Luke 25.05.84
Goddard, Brendon 20.05.85
Dawson, Zac 22.02.86
Ray, Farren 23.03.86
McQualter, Andrew 09.06.86
Gilbert, Sam 19.08.86

Rucks:

Gardiner, Michael S. 05.07.79
King, Steven 22.11.78

Developing Rucks:

McEvoy, Ben 11.07.89
Stanley, Rhys 01.12.90

Support Players:

Dempster, Sean 20.01.84 (Jason Blake)
Fisher, Leigh 19.04.84
Clarke, Raphael 24.09.85
Gwilt, James 11.08.86
Miles, Luke 30.10.86
Eddy, Robert 07.01.88
Armitage, David 16.06.88 (Lenny Hayes)
Geary, Jarryn 23.06.88 (Stephen Baker)

Development:

Steven, Jack 28.03.90 (Steven Milne)
Heyne, Nicholas 22.07.90
Smith, Alistair 08.08.90
Cahill, Paul 19.08.90
Lynch, Tom 15.09.90

In brackets I have nominated who I feel will take over from the aging players born in the year 80 /81. This will not be next year but eventually these players will slow or move on. Of course if Luke Ball does walk out, we shall need to replace him too.

Interestingly list wise we sit pretty much at where the Lions were at the start of their 4 year reign that delivered 3 premierships with their most important dozen players aged 25 to 27.

The reality is that no kids we draft now (especially with the draft picks we have this year in a severly compromised draft) will be anywhere near to senior footy standard within 3 years. I also think we have a good spread of development talent - 2 ruckman, 2 lead up medium forwards, a key position player (Cahill) and two nippy midfielders plus we have some exciting rookies as well.

One could argue with Max and Goose gone that we lack back up key posotion defenders, but on our list we have Zac, Blake, Fisher and Gilbert who can all play the two key defensive posts and we have a huge number of 188cm - 192cm running defenders who can take over the 3rd tall spots when we have to cover injuries. This is where I think players like : Fisher, Dempster, Miles and Geary start to fit into the picture. When we have injuries to Zac and or Blake and we have to sacrifice S Fisher and / or Gilbert, we then can look at Dempster, L Fisher. Miles and Geary to play roles in the backline. So we have backline depth ... if we swing players around.

It is also obvious to me that Peake and Lovett were selected because they sit at the right age and experience to slip right into the core of our premiership window.

So the question begs - in the draft do we take kids who may or may not make it but definitely will not be influential in the next 3 to 5 years for our premiership assault OR do we hand pick some recycled players with our draft picks to suit our premiership window. There are certainly alot of players this year available - more than usual and not all of them are duds.

Looking at Hawthorn and what they did with stewie Dew - they knew he was only good for 2 years BUT he was exactly what they needed for the complete forward line that any team would struggle to match up on ... so they brought him in and the gamble worked.

If I was recruiting at St Kilda over the next few weeks I would be making a checklist of our immediate structural deficiencies and picking players that have been partially developed already (like Zac was) and bringing them on to play a specific role EVEN if it was for 1 or 2 years so that some of our development players like Heyne / Lynch had time to grow as footballers.

We need a medium forward and a medium back ... ideally both strong marking, both good tacklers and both with discipline.

I am prepared to be a bottom side after 2014 in uncompromised drafts ... as long as we have given the next 5 years a red hot go for Premierships.

Essentially 2014 becomes our 2001.

[sendmehomehappy]

Good read and well thought out...

Yes the window is wide open and will be for 3-4 more years

Should already be one in the bag...

Lovett and Peake have been picked to address lack of speed and we need players to address the deficiencies which remain...these need to be pretty much ready to go. Use the draft picks to get these.

The rookie list can be turned over hard for young, but unsuspected, gems...over the next few years. 1-2 out of 6 each year to make it would be nice.

I don't give a stuff about the saints bottoming out in 2013-14. Hell, i stood in the rain and watched them play in the mud at Moorabbin that many times when they were cellar dwellers...that I am pretty much immune to it

But I will only remain immune...and blissfully happy, if there is one or more(hopefully) cups in the cupboard to show for the brilliant talent and all-round expertise we have assembled at the club at the moment.

Go Saints....Go for it now...and go Fcuking hard for it now!

[borderbarry]

I dont believe we have 4 years of window, more like two. Lenny cant last forever, and I cant really see anyone completely taking his place.
We recruited the two players with pace in mind, but by the same token we let Xavier go, and he was one of our fastest. SO we have not gained all that much. With this years recruits and rookies, speed should be a priority. And we have to take advantage of the speed of our young big fellas, Stanley and Walsh.

[sendmehomehappy]

There is no denying how good Lenny is..and his value to the team...but he is only one player.

Banger retired and we made the GF the year after.

We will find the going tough when the big chunk of players from 2001-3 vintage all retire or fade en masse

[linz]

I don't think Kosi can be ranked anywhere close alongside Roo at the moment either.

A third or better option to Kosi up forward is required IMO.

[saintsRrising]

If I was recruiting at St Kilda over the next few weeks I would be making a checklist of our immediate structural deficiencies and picking players that have been partially developed already .

With respect...this is excatly what Lyon has been doing since he first arrived.

Gardi, King, M Clake = ruck

Charlie = HF (did not work..but was cheap)
Schneideer = groomed as hard working defensive/offensive small forward
Zac = Full back
Ray = running outside player for mifield or across half back

However the beauty of Lyon is that he is not JUST about the immediate and has been stocking up on bottom age players such as Steven and McEvoy...playing a full rookie list to search for players (CJ, Geary and Eddie already looking good along with Zac)....and so our depth continues to grow. Flash our new young ruckman looks promising.


Lyon for example wanteda running tagger..and trialled L Fisher and (mentall blank from too many American Beers)) a Dogs player (not Ray) before settling on CJ.



Medium HF has proved problematic... Charlie tried...Gwilt tried...but noreal soltion cyet found...

Expect in 2010 to see a few others tried there...Lynck...maybea fast tracked Walsh (but EARLY days yet there..)


However on Windows...if you want to use that term....yes our best chance ofa flag will be while Lenny and roo are still at their peaks...as thety are our two genuine superstars.


But make no mistake...our success in 2009 was all due in the main to TEAM football... Lyon's ability to maintain this will be what will deliver success or not.

[St DAC]

Lyon for example wanteda running tagger..and trialled L Fisher and (mentall blank from too many American Beers)) a Dogs player (not Ray) before settling on CJ.

Birss.

[Teflon]

I dont think our window is 4 years and I too dont see a ready made midfield replacement for Hayes who we all saw GF day in the first half especially IS the only true inside/outside mid we have (so much so the Cats needed a Brownlow medallist to apply a hard tag to stop him - he was clearly BOG at half time for mine).

While we can say hes 1 player and we moved on from Harvey etc - with due respects to Harvs he wasnt at the peak of his powers when he retired....Hayes has just come off a super year capped by AA. He IS that important to our side. IMHO Dal can still be sat on and Montagna (while making huge steps fwd) can and does go missing. So often in games this year Hayes has been the ignition out of the guts.....he is the prime mover.

The answer HAS to be the succesful integration over time of the likes of Lynch, McEvoy, Stanley, Armitage, Steven and Co whilst we see the decline of some of these others. Just like Lenny played alongside Harvs as a kid......so to must Stevens/Armo get a run alongside him.

Yes we have to go for broke in the next 2 yrs to grab a flag but we MUST keep kids coming in as I dont believe we have to revert to the low days of Watson again to rebuild.

[PJ]

The answer HAS to be the succesful integration over time of the likes of Lynch, McEvoy, Stanley, Armitage, Steven and Co whilst we see the decline of some of these others. Just like Lenny played alongside Harvs as a kid......so to must Stevens/Armo get a run alongside him.

This is why I'm not as keen as others to keep Ball. Lenny was never a superstar to start with he just had plenty of promise. Armitage, Steven & others need game time, game time they won't get while Luke is (dare I say it) clogging the list. He wants to go so lets just kiss and say goodbye.

[Zed]

Tommy Walsh clearly earmarked for tall forward role - however query over how many years we will get out of him (and we are also assuming he will make it at the top level).

Concern for mine is tall mobile defenders. If we could pluck a future Maxy or Sam Gilbert would be very happy with that.

[borderbarry]

Lenny was never a superstar to start with he just had plenty of promise;
What are you on about PJ? 3rd in the Brownlow this year, definitely a Superstar now.

[vacuous space]

Concern for mine is tall mobile defenders.

We did chase after Nathan Brown and Anrejs Everitt in trade week. I think the coaching staff may share your concern. There are a few guys I'm aware of who might be there at 32. Dylan Grimes (brother of Jack), Sam Reid (brother of Ben) and Sam Shaw. They're all about 192cm and fairly mobile. One of them might be a possibility.