The teams that finished first, second, third and fourth all have the same statistical chance of winning the flag. They can do it two ways, either win three games (one chance in eight) or lose one and then win three games (one chance in 16). So, these teams have three chances in 16 of winning the flag from here.
For the teams that finished 5 to 8, they must win four games - one chance in 16.
This means that teams 1 to 4 are three times more likely to win than teams 5 to 8. Under the current finals system (since 2001 or eight years), no team that has finished 5 to 8 has won the flag - statistically, it should only happen once in every 16 years.
The bookies odds take other things into account, not least of all, the irrational behaviour of fanatical fans.
Do you rate our chances as better than three in 16? Perhaps you could try a little experiment. Get 16 little squares of paper and write W on three and L on the other thirteen. Put them in hat, close your eyes and draw out one. If you pick a W, you will have done, statistically, what the Saints must do to win the flag from here. Of course, next week, the statistical odds will change because there will be just six teams left.
Let the nerves begin!
Our (statistical) chances of winning the flag
Moderators: Saintsational Administrators, Saintsational Moderators
-
perfectionist
- Saintsational Legend
- Posts: 9053
- Joined: Mon 30 Jul 2007 3:06pm
- Has thanked: 60 times
- Been thanked: 353 times
-
Sainter_Dad
- Saintsational Legend
- Posts: 6338
- Joined: Thu 05 Jun 2008 1:04pm
- Has thanked: 263 times
- Been thanked: 1123 times
lol - okay done - picked a W - where do we pick up the cup!
Love your work Perfectionist but in this case you cannot assign purely statistical odds. For instance Federer is playing Devin Britton. Shall we put two pices of paper in the hat.
In truth you would need to add more pieces for form, bigger pieces for tactics etc so a probability table will not work for this exercise.
Oh and it is not so much 3/16 - there is only one favourable course through the finals and that is WWW so you would need to draw out 3 W's in a row for us to take the flag home!
Love your work Perfectionist but in this case you cannot assign purely statistical odds. For instance Federer is playing Devin Britton. Shall we put two pices of paper in the hat.
In truth you would need to add more pieces for form, bigger pieces for tactics etc so a probability table will not work for this exercise.
Oh and it is not so much 3/16 - there is only one favourable course through the finals and that is WWW so you would need to draw out 3 W's in a row for us to take the flag home!
“Youth ages, immaturity is outgrown, ignorance can be educated, and drunkenness sobered, but stupid lasts forever.”
― Aristophanes
If you have a Bee in your Bonnet - I can assist you with that - but it WILL involve some smacking upside the head!
― Aristophanes
If you have a Bee in your Bonnet - I can assist you with that - but it WILL involve some smacking upside the head!
-
samoht
- Saintsational Legend
- Posts: 5878
- Joined: Sun 14 Mar 2004 10:45am
- Location: https://www.amazon.com.au/Fugitive-Sold ... B00EO1GCNK
- Has thanked: 615 times
- Been thanked: 460 times
- Contact:
I know you provided those odds tongue in cheek.
it makes statistical sense if you're assigning equal chances to a win or a loss as you would to a Heads or Tails in a coin toss.
so 3/16 x 4 (the 4 teams that finish top 4) = 12/16
and 1/16 x 4 (the 4 bottom final's teams) = 4/16
which adds up to 1 as you would expect for all possible outcomes .. so statistically sound if a win or loss are equally likely events at all times, with respect to all the AFL finalists.
however we all know that you can have perfectly prepared teams like Adelaide in 1997 that may start off in 5th - 8th positions but get it together at the right time - and are more likely to win the premiership than higher up teams.
it makes statistical sense if you're assigning equal chances to a win or a loss as you would to a Heads or Tails in a coin toss.
so 3/16 x 4 (the 4 teams that finish top 4) = 12/16
and 1/16 x 4 (the 4 bottom final's teams) = 4/16
which adds up to 1 as you would expect for all possible outcomes .. so statistically sound if a win or loss are equally likely events at all times, with respect to all the AFL finalists.
however we all know that you can have perfectly prepared teams like Adelaide in 1997 that may start off in 5th - 8th positions but get it together at the right time - and are more likely to win the premiership than higher up teams.
Last edited by samoht on Mon 31 Aug 2009 6:21pm, edited 2 times in total.
-
InkerSaint
- SS Hall of Fame
- Posts: 2132
- Joined: Wed 07 Jan 2009 3:06pm
Just 3 years ago West Coast won a flag from LWWW. Sydney did the same thing the previous year. Brisbane did it two years prior to that.Sainter_Dad wrote:Oh and it is not so much 3/16 - there is only one favourable course through the finals and that is WWW so you would need to draw out 3 W's in a row for us to take the flag home!
Last edited by InkerSaint on Mon 31 Aug 2009 5:32pm, edited 1 time in total.
"... You want to pose a threat to the opposition in as many ways as you can, both defensively and offensively. We've got a responsibility to explore all those possibilities - and we will."
-
SaintHomer
- Club Player
- Posts: 1086
- Joined: Fri 16 Sep 2005 3:30pm
- Location: Brisbane QLD
and ironically, they lost that first final to each other by the exact same margin that they went on to win the GF by against each other. believe it or not...InkerSaint wrote:Just 3 years ago West Coast won a flag from LWWW. Sydney did the same thing the previous year.Sainter_Dad wrote:Oh and it is not so much 3/16 - there is only one favourable course through the finals and that is WWW so you would need to draw out 3 W's in a row for us to take the flag home!
-
saintdooley
- Saintsational Legend
- Posts: 4571
- Joined: Mon 20 Feb 2006 2:32pm
you gotta be in it to win it.
essendon have a chance, carlton have a chance, geelong have a chance, we have a chance....i dont see it any other way. until about 8 weeks ago i saw it as "the tab has us at $2, we have the best chance
" but something must of hit me in the head and my opinion has changed. all 8 teams have a chance, its just a matter of who wants it the most.
essendon have a chance, carlton have a chance, geelong have a chance, we have a chance....i dont see it any other way. until about 8 weeks ago i saw it as "the tab has us at $2, we have the best chance
" but something must of hit me in the head and my opinion has changed. all 8 teams have a chance, its just a matter of who wants it the most."Another storied win in Robert Harvey's career. They say he is the embodiment of their motto of strength through loyalty, and on the day he became just the tenth man to play 350 league games the saints reward him with a seemingly impossible victory."
-
desertsaint
- Saintsational Legend
- Posts: 10426
- Joined: Sun 27 Apr 2008 2:02pm
- Location: out there
- Has thanked: 190 times
- Been thanked: 713 times
I've worked out the statistical odds taking form, injuries, history, the alignment of the planets, global warming, the el nino effect, and the piper girls contrariness, all into account!
chance - out of 8:
saints 2.5
cats 2
dogs 1.5
pies 1
crows .5
lions .25
blues .125
bombers .125
not happy with the science i then added the effect of karma or balance or reward, whatever you wish to call it, and got this:
saints 8
the rest 0
chance - out of 8:
saints 2.5
cats 2
dogs 1.5
pies 1
crows .5
lions .25
blues .125
bombers .125
not happy with the science i then added the effect of karma or balance or reward, whatever you wish to call it, and got this:
saints 8
the rest 0
"The starting point of all achievement is desire. "
-
marksnsparks
- Club Player
- Posts: 506
- Joined: Sat 28 Jul 2007 8:09pm
- Location: Mentone
