LYON Mountain, LYON Hill or LYON Valley ?
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- Enrico_Misso
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LYON Mountain, LYON Hill or LYON Valley ?
This graph basically tries to encapsulate the history of the StKFC.
The purple line shows the Match % each year.
The match % = (Wins + Draws/2) / Games in season
So if you win 10 and draw 1 in a 20 game season your Match % = 10.5/20 = 52.5%.
The Blue line is the cumulative version of the purple line ie our all time record to that point
The Black line is a trend line (line of best fit using linear regression) to illustrate the long term trend.
It is somewhat misleading as it's steep upward gradient is more due to the influence of our dismal first 15 years
Conclusions
A bleak start to our VFL career saw us sitting on 0% until our 4th year
It took till 1905 before our cumulative Match % reached 10%.
By 1908 we reached 20% before dipping back to 18%
It took till 1929 to pass the 30% barrier
We hit our all time high of 38.46% in 1976 in the last year of Allan Jeans' reign.
After the "lost decade" of the 80s we dropped back to below 36% in 89.
Under Sheldon, Alves and Thomas we have steadily recovered ground.
How far are we from our all time high ?
Very close.
We closed 2007 at 38.23%, and if we were to win our next 8 games (or have 8 more wins than losses in 2008) then we will pass that 1976 high water mark.
When will we hit the 40% barrier ?
To achieve that we would need to win about 63 more games (or accrue 63 more wins than losses) so that would require quite a few years of consistent success.
Selective viewings of history ?
Pre and post Jeans
If you define StK in terms of the influence of Allan Jeans then
- our record before Jeans commenced coaching in 61 was 32.3%
- and 44.4% since he took over in 61
His influence can never be understated.
The "Modern" era
If you define the modern era as commencing with Kenny's manifesto in 1990, then
- our record since Sheldon took over is an impressive 47.7% (and that includes Watson/Blight)
The Four Decades of Shame
In many ways we are still recovering from our dismal dark days prior to 1910, the 40s, the 50s and the 80s
- excluding those 4 decades of shame our overall rate is 47.4% (covering 68 years)
- or conversely those 4 decades of shame produced a rate of only 23.0% (covering 43 years)
It is no surprise that we won 20 of our 26 wooden spoons in those periods
And of the other 6 spoons, the one in 1910 and the two in the late 70s would roll into the decades of shame if I was slightly more flexible in defining those dark periods.
(For completeness sake the other 3 spoons consisted of two in the 20's and the Watson spoon in 2000).
Or Three eras of Shame
In fact if I add 5 more years (1910-11, 1977-9) into our three eras of shame to become 1897-1911, 1940-1959, and 1977-1989
Then our Match rate in the 63 years not covered by these periods is a very respectable 49.6%
Could we reach 50% in our lifetime ?
Not unless you are into cryogenics.
If you define a goodish average season as say 14 wins and 10 losses.
Then it would require 109 consecutive goodish average seasons before we reached 50%, so bookmark 2116.
Basically it will take many many many more respectable decades to obliterate the impact of those three unsuccessful eras.
The stand-out feature of the graph is the impact of Allan Jeans
His reign from 1961 to 1976 is obvious from the purple graph.
His impact is also obvious in the form of a distinct lump in the cumulative curve.
I have called this phenomena "The Allan Jeans Mountain".
The impact of other coaches can also be seen.
Sheldon, Alves and Thomas were also consistently above average.
And the impacts of coaches Watson and Gellie is obvious to see, I have named valleys after them !
From earlier eras George Sparrow and Ansell Clarke had spikes, whilst Allan Hird and Les Foote had dips.
Indeed prior to Allan Jeans we only had 4 coaches who coached for more than two consecutive years (Minogue, Clarke, Froude and Killigrew) and they each managed only 3 years.
ie before Jeans no-one coached us for more than 3 consecutive years.
So the StK coaching position was pretty much a revolving door prior to Jeans, making it hard to name spikes or dips after individual coaches.
Note that prior to McNamara in 1913 we did not have a coach, just a captain as per the custom of that era.
Questions
Can we surpass our all time peak next season ?
When can we reach the 40% threshold ?
Will Lyon be a Mountain, a Hill or a Valley ?
The purple line shows the Match % each year.
The match % = (Wins + Draws/2) / Games in season
So if you win 10 and draw 1 in a 20 game season your Match % = 10.5/20 = 52.5%.
The Blue line is the cumulative version of the purple line ie our all time record to that point
The Black line is a trend line (line of best fit using linear regression) to illustrate the long term trend.
It is somewhat misleading as it's steep upward gradient is more due to the influence of our dismal first 15 years
Conclusions
A bleak start to our VFL career saw us sitting on 0% until our 4th year
It took till 1905 before our cumulative Match % reached 10%.
By 1908 we reached 20% before dipping back to 18%
It took till 1929 to pass the 30% barrier
We hit our all time high of 38.46% in 1976 in the last year of Allan Jeans' reign.
After the "lost decade" of the 80s we dropped back to below 36% in 89.
Under Sheldon, Alves and Thomas we have steadily recovered ground.
How far are we from our all time high ?
Very close.
We closed 2007 at 38.23%, and if we were to win our next 8 games (or have 8 more wins than losses in 2008) then we will pass that 1976 high water mark.
When will we hit the 40% barrier ?
To achieve that we would need to win about 63 more games (or accrue 63 more wins than losses) so that would require quite a few years of consistent success.
Selective viewings of history ?
Pre and post Jeans
If you define StK in terms of the influence of Allan Jeans then
- our record before Jeans commenced coaching in 61 was 32.3%
- and 44.4% since he took over in 61
His influence can never be understated.
The "Modern" era
If you define the modern era as commencing with Kenny's manifesto in 1990, then
- our record since Sheldon took over is an impressive 47.7% (and that includes Watson/Blight)
The Four Decades of Shame
In many ways we are still recovering from our dismal dark days prior to 1910, the 40s, the 50s and the 80s
- excluding those 4 decades of shame our overall rate is 47.4% (covering 68 years)
- or conversely those 4 decades of shame produced a rate of only 23.0% (covering 43 years)
It is no surprise that we won 20 of our 26 wooden spoons in those periods
And of the other 6 spoons, the one in 1910 and the two in the late 70s would roll into the decades of shame if I was slightly more flexible in defining those dark periods.
(For completeness sake the other 3 spoons consisted of two in the 20's and the Watson spoon in 2000).
Or Three eras of Shame
In fact if I add 5 more years (1910-11, 1977-9) into our three eras of shame to become 1897-1911, 1940-1959, and 1977-1989
Then our Match rate in the 63 years not covered by these periods is a very respectable 49.6%
Could we reach 50% in our lifetime ?
Not unless you are into cryogenics.
If you define a goodish average season as say 14 wins and 10 losses.
Then it would require 109 consecutive goodish average seasons before we reached 50%, so bookmark 2116.
Basically it will take many many many more respectable decades to obliterate the impact of those three unsuccessful eras.
The stand-out feature of the graph is the impact of Allan Jeans
His reign from 1961 to 1976 is obvious from the purple graph.
His impact is also obvious in the form of a distinct lump in the cumulative curve.
I have called this phenomena "The Allan Jeans Mountain".
The impact of other coaches can also be seen.
Sheldon, Alves and Thomas were also consistently above average.
And the impacts of coaches Watson and Gellie is obvious to see, I have named valleys after them !
From earlier eras George Sparrow and Ansell Clarke had spikes, whilst Allan Hird and Les Foote had dips.
Indeed prior to Allan Jeans we only had 4 coaches who coached for more than two consecutive years (Minogue, Clarke, Froude and Killigrew) and they each managed only 3 years.
ie before Jeans no-one coached us for more than 3 consecutive years.
So the StK coaching position was pretty much a revolving door prior to Jeans, making it hard to name spikes or dips after individual coaches.
Note that prior to McNamara in 1913 we did not have a coach, just a captain as per the custom of that era.
Questions
Can we surpass our all time peak next season ?
When can we reach the 40% threshold ?
Will Lyon be a Mountain, a Hill or a Valley ?
The rest of Australia can wander mask-free, socialise, eat out, no curfews, no zoning, no police rings of steel, no illogical inconsistent rules.
They can even WATCH LIVE FOOTY!
They can even WATCH LIVE FOOTY!
- Oh When the Saints
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- saint patrick
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Geez looking at that graph the 80,s were as grim as I remember...
No wonder I have a nervous condition when it comes to watching games...
A legacy of a decades of torture
No wonder I have a nervous condition when it comes to watching games...
A legacy of a decades of torture
Never take a backward step even to gain momentum.....
'It's OK to have the capabilities and abilities, but you've got to get it done." Terry Daniher 05
"We have beauty in our captain and we have a true leader in our coach. Our time will come"
Thinline.Post 09 Grand final.
'It's OK to have the capabilities and abilities, but you've got to get it done." Terry Daniher 05
"We have beauty in our captain and we have a true leader in our coach. Our time will come"
Thinline.Post 09 Grand final.
- my les foote
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- samoht
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Before adulating and crediting Alan Jeans for our golden era and how much influence he had , what I'd like to know is ..
- was it a quirk of history, our recruiting or the favourable zoning that provided us the wealth of player talent in the 60's and 70's..
Those players would have succeeded under any coach.
- was it a quirk of history, our recruiting or the favourable zoning that provided us the wealth of player talent in the 60's and 70's..
Those players would have succeeded under any coach.
I'm sure it was a combination of good recruiting and Jeans' ability to unify a group of footballers and bring the best out of them.samoht wrote:Before adulating and crediting Alan Jeans for our golden era and how much influence he had , what I'd like to know is ..
- was it a quirk of history, our recruiting or the favourable zoning that provided us the wealth of player talent in the 60's and 70's..
Those players would have succeeded under any coach.
We were the dominant team around then and should've won a lot more than the one flag.
The coach is the most important person at any club imo.
- saintsRrising
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could it be that the extra volatility seen post 1990 could be in part due to the introduction of the salary cap, draft etc... effectively showing that football goes in cycles, making the comp fairer as compared to prior decades where the powerful clubs were able to dominate???
such, the peaks and troughs of Alves, Thomas & Co not solely because of their coaching ability but also due to these innovations in footy.
a coaching performance would be judged more on the ability to stay at the top, reduce volatility of year to year results - signifying something that nullifies cyclical effect of draft etc. Going by that it would suggest we have never really had an outstanding coach, or that their influence was limited
such, the peaks and troughs of Alves, Thomas & Co not solely because of their coaching ability but also due to these innovations in footy.
a coaching performance would be judged more on the ability to stay at the top, reduce volatility of year to year results - signifying something that nullifies cyclical effect of draft etc. Going by that it would suggest we have never really had an outstanding coach, or that their influence was limited
"The line 'I'm a mad St Kilda supporter' is one of life's great tautologies, because sanity has never been a requisite to follow the fortunes of the red, white and black"
the graph has disappeared for me, but its a good read.
the graphs back.
its a great read, nice piece of research and analysis.
as for teh comment 'anyone can coach', well thats bollux IMO.
you have the ingredients in teh players, its up to the coach to extract it from them.
IMO guys like lethal and once pagan, and once sheedy regularly took 'ordinary talents' and slotted them into champion teams.
the graphs back.
its a great read, nice piece of research and analysis.
as for teh comment 'anyone can coach', well thats bollux IMO.
you have the ingredients in teh players, its up to the coach to extract it from them.
IMO guys like lethal and once pagan, and once sheedy regularly took 'ordinary talents' and slotted them into champion teams.
Bewaire krime, da krimson bolt is comeing to yure nayborhood to smach krime
SHUT UP KRIME!
SHUT UP KRIME!
and that would be why those teams spent more than a year or two at the peak (because they are doing more with what they've got), or their 'dips' would not go as low.
your opinion is not inconsistent with what was proposed, in fact it supports it.
your opinion is not inconsistent with what was proposed, in fact it supports it.
"The line 'I'm a mad St Kilda supporter' is one of life's great tautologies, because sanity has never been a requisite to follow the fortunes of the red, white and black"
- Enrico_Misso
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Thanks for the advice - they don't call you "Fingers" for nothing.fingers wrote:Dude - love the effort - but get yourself an Xbox or something....even online porn would be a break.
I have always been troubled by our low historical win rate which is why I have monitored it over time.
It is something of an embarassment that we have won less than 40% of our games in total.
And I sort of feel that passing that barrier gives us credibility.
Even worse is our record against the three horror clubs.
Against Essendon our Match % is just 31.3% and has only recently hit 30%.
Against Collingwood it languishes at 26.6%
And against Carlton it is a pathetic 22.3%.
And that is after winning our last 9 games against them.
Before that it was just 18.65%
These are embarassing numbers.
The modern (post 1990) era with it's Match rate of almost 48% has been a source of satisfaction to all of us who endured the deep dark days of the 80s, as we watch ourselves gradually haul our way back to respectability.
The rest of Australia can wander mask-free, socialise, eat out, no curfews, no zoning, no police rings of steel, no illogical inconsistent rules.
They can even WATCH LIVE FOOTY!
They can even WATCH LIVE FOOTY!
- Enrico_Misso
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I think there are two components to being a successful coach.samoht wrote:Before adulating and crediting Alan Jeans for our golden era and how much influence he had , what I'd like to know is ..
- was it a quirk of history, our recruiting or the favourable zoning that provided us the wealth of player talent in the 60's and 70's..
Those players would have succeeded under any coach.
Firstly you need to have the cattle.
And there is no doubt Jeans was lucky to have such a talented bunch of players emerging in 63.
And then he rebuilt another talented team in 71.
And at Hawthorn he picked up an even more talented group in 81 which he kept topping up through till 1990.
But it is one thing being "lucky" to inherit a talented list.
It is quite another thing to get them to perform.
Jeansy averaged over 58% with us.
And incredibly over 72% with Hawthorn.
All up he coached 575 games at a 62.3% success rate.
That is phenomenal.
And proves he is the best of the best.
There have been plenty of other "talented" teams over the years.
But it takes a talented coach to bring them together.
And that 62.3% includes the 22 games he coached at Richmond for just 5 wins in 92. (A worse record than even KB).
I met Allan Jeans once and I asked him why he coached Richmond.
His answer was "for the money".
Whilst that was an honest answer I found it sad that despite his successes at StK and Hawthorn he obviously never got the sort of money that someone of his talent would command today.
Bit of an indictment on both clubs.
The rest of Australia can wander mask-free, socialise, eat out, no curfews, no zoning, no police rings of steel, no illogical inconsistent rules.
They can even WATCH LIVE FOOTY!
They can even WATCH LIVE FOOTY!
- Bernard Shakey
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LOL. In all seriousness it's an interesting piece of analysis. The carlton figures REALLY sh!t me. It would be interesting to compare the overall rate to other clubs.Enrico_Misso wrote:Thanks for the advice - they don't call you "Fingers" for nothing.fingers wrote:Dude - love the effort - but get yourself an Xbox or something....even online porn would be a break.
I have always been troubled by our low historical win rate which is why I have monitored it over time.
It is something of an embarassment that we have won less than 40% of our games in total.
And I sort of feel that passing that barrier gives us credibility.
Even worse is our record against the three horror clubs.
Against Essendon our Match % is just 31.3% and has only recently hit 30%.
Against Collingwood it languishes at 26.6%
And against Carlton it is a pathetic 22.3%.
And that is after winning our last 9 games against them.
Before that it was just 18.65%
These are embarassing numbers.
The modern (post 1990) era with it's Match rate of almost 48% has been a source of satisfaction to all of us who endured the deep dark days of the 80s, as we watch ourselves gradually haul our way back to respectability.