Luck of the Draw?
Moderators: Saintsational Administrators, Saintsational Moderators
-
- Club Player
- Posts: 1293
- Joined: Thu 22 Jun 2006 4:03pm
- Location: StKilda East
- Has thanked: 50 times
- Been thanked: 230 times
- Contact:
Luck of the Draw?
Assuming Richmond beat WC today and take the Saint's place in the eight,
below is a list on how many times each of the top nine teams plays other teams currently out of the eight.
From memory this follows on from very difficult draws in the 2 previous years.
This puts us at a handicap of maybe 2 games against a team like Geelong who gets to play North and West Coast twice.
It is quite apparent that the Saints have copped the worst fixture on top of our eight matches out of Melbourne (7 interstate and 1 in Geelong)
Geel 4
Bris 4
Syd 4
Rich 4
Freo 3
Coll 3
Carl 2
Melb 2
StK 1
below is a list on how many times each of the top nine teams plays other teams currently out of the eight.
From memory this follows on from very difficult draws in the 2 previous years.
This puts us at a handicap of maybe 2 games against a team like Geelong who gets to play North and West Coast twice.
It is quite apparent that the Saints have copped the worst fixture on top of our eight matches out of Melbourne (7 interstate and 1 in Geelong)
Geel 4
Bris 4
Syd 4
Rich 4
Freo 3
Coll 3
Carl 2
Melb 2
StK 1
Last edited by StPeter on Sun 03 Jul 2022 5:03pm, edited 3 times in total.
-
- Club Player
- Posts: 1029
- Joined: Sun 20 Mar 2022 6:05pm
- Has thanked: 195 times
- Been thanked: 68 times
Re: Luck of the Draw?
You need to base it on last years 8
St Kilda should never trade with Essendon and Sydney ever again!!!
NeXus
NeXus
-
- Club Player
- Posts: 1293
- Joined: Thu 22 Jun 2006 4:03pm
- Location: StKilda East
- Has thanked: 50 times
- Been thanked: 230 times
- Contact:
Re: Luck of the Draw?
I am talking about how it stands at the current position which is the most relevant.
Even based on last year's draw we still got arguably the most difficult.
-
- Club Player
- Posts: 1029
- Joined: Sun 20 Mar 2022 6:05pm
- Has thanked: 195 times
- Been thanked: 68 times
Re: Luck of the Draw?
As it stands now we got the rough end of the stick I agree. But it was just lady luck laughing at us like she normally does unfortunately
St Kilda should never trade with Essendon and Sydney ever again!!!
NeXus
NeXus
-
- Club Player
- Posts: 1029
- Joined: Sun 20 Mar 2022 6:05pm
- Has thanked: 195 times
- Been thanked: 68 times
Re: Luck of the Draw?
If only GC had beaten Collingfilth
St Kilda should never trade with Essendon and Sydney ever again!!!
NeXus
NeXus
- The_Dud
- Saintsational Legend
- Posts: 13879
- Joined: Sun 27 May 2007 9:53pm
- Location: Bendigo
- Has thanked: 1313 times
- Been thanked: 2075 times
Re: Luck of the Draw?
Yeah, if only we got to play more inferior teams not in the 8 like Essendon or Port…
![Rolling Eyes :roll:](./images/smilies/icon_rolleyes.gif)
![Rolling Eyes :roll:](./images/smilies/icon_rolleyes.gif)
All posters are equal, but some posters are more equal than others.
- SaintPav
- Saintsational Legend
- Posts: 18947
- Joined: Wed 16 Jun 2010 9:24pm
- Location: Alma Road
- Has thanked: 1587 times
- Been thanked: 1987 times
Re: Luck of the Draw?
I did a ladder predictor.
Freo are not a sure thing.
Freo are not a sure thing.
Holder of unacceptable views and other thought crimes.
-
- Saintsational Legend
- Posts: 4272
- Joined: Fri 15 Sep 2006 10:35am
- Location: earth
- Has thanked: 1 time
- Been thanked: 1409 times
Re: Luck of the Draw?
Based on current standings, our entire season is a about a 50/50 split between playing teams in the 8 and teams outside the 8. Can't complain about that.
-
- Club Player
- Posts: 921
- Joined: Sat 24 Oct 2020 10:22am
- Has thanked: 217 times
- Been thanked: 906 times
-
- Club Player
- Posts: 921
- Joined: Sat 24 Oct 2020 10:22am
- Has thanked: 217 times
- Been thanked: 906 times
- Munga
- Saintsational Legend
- Posts: 5287
- Joined: Tue 09 Mar 2004 12:00am
- Has thanked: 525 times
- Been thanked: 98 times
Re: Luck of the Draw?
Top 8 teams lose to other teams outside the top 8, it happens. It's just those teams in the top 8 are receiving more chances to play bottom teams.
Brisbane lost to Hawthorn.
Carlton lost to Gold Coast.
Carlton lost to St Kilda.
Collingwood lost to West Coast.
Collingwood lost to Bulldogs.
Fremantle lost to St Kilda.
Fremantle lost to Gold Coast.
Geelong lost to Hawthorn.
Geelong lost to St Kilda.
Richmond lost to St Kilda.
Richmond lost to Adelaide.
Sydney lost to Bulldogs.
Sydney lost to Gold Coast.
Sydney lost to Port Adelaide.
Sydney lost to Essendon.
We lost to Port by a point, and the Bombers. But we don't have the luxury of making it up with an easier fixture like the rest. Sydney have been the worst and probably deserve the top 8 the least.
Gehrig emerged from scans yesterday saying he was "as sweet as a bun"
- samuraisaint
- Saintsational Legend
- Posts: 5910
- Joined: Sun 25 Sep 2011 3:23pm
- Location: M32
- Has thanked: 855 times
- Been thanked: 797 times
Re: Luck of the Draw?
Swans, Brisbane and Fremantle all should be wins to us at home.StPeter wrote: ↑Sun 03 Jul 2022 1:54pm Assuming Richmond beat WC today and take the Saint's place in the eight,
below is a list on how many times each of the top nine teams plays other teams currently out of the eight.
From memory this follows on from very difficult draws in the 2 previous years.
This puts us at a handicap of maybe 2 games against a team like Geelong who gets to play North and West Coast twice.
It is quite apparent that the Saints have copped the worst fixture on top of our eight matches out of Melbourne (7 interstate and 1 in Geelong)
Geel 4
Bris 4
Syd 4
Rich 4
Freo 3
Coll 3
Carl 2
Melb 2
StK 1
Hawthorn are a bottom team and we play them at home as well.
Plus we play the second bottom team in the Eagles - we play them in Perth but we should still win that.
The Dogs are having a down year as well, so that's 50/50.
I think conservatively we win 5 from last 7.
Last edited by samuraisaint on Sun 03 Jul 2022 5:31pm, edited 1 time in total.
Your friendly neighbourhood samurai.
- samuraisaint
- Saintsational Legend
- Posts: 5910
- Joined: Sun 25 Sep 2011 3:23pm
- Location: M32
- Has thanked: 855 times
- Been thanked: 797 times
Re: Luck of the Draw?
Port did finish third last year, and in 2020 as well, and the game was played in a swamp.Munga wrote: ↑Sun 03 Jul 2022 4:52pmTop 8 teams lose to other teams outside the top 8, it happens. It's just those teams in the top 8 are receiving more chances to play bottom teams.
Brisbane lost to Hawthorn.
Carlton lost to Gold Coast.
Carlton lost to St Kilda.
Collingwood lost to West Coast.
Collingwood lost to Bulldogs.
Fremantle lost to St Kilda.
Fremantle lost to Gold Coast.
Geelong lost to Hawthorn.
Geelong lost to St Kilda.
Richmond lost to St Kilda.
Richmond lost to Adelaide.
Sydney lost to Bulldogs.
Sydney lost to Gold Coast.
Sydney lost to Port Adelaide.
Sydney lost to Essendon.
We lost to Port by a point, and the Bombers. But we don't have the luxury of making it up with an easier fixture like the rest. Sydney have been the worst and probably deserve the top 8 the least.
We shouldn't have lost to Essendon though.
Our season's alive. We just need to keep winning, that's all.
Your friendly neighbourhood samurai.
-
- Saintsational Legend
- Posts: 7300
- Joined: Tue 09 Mar 2004 9:31am
- Has thanked: 12 times
- Been thanked: 143 times
Re: Luck of the Draw?
Very very optimisticsamuraisaint wrote: ↑Sun 03 Jul 2022 5:29pmSwans, Brisbane and Fremantle all should be wins to us at home.StPeter wrote: ↑Sun 03 Jul 2022 1:54pm Assuming Richmond beat WC today and take the Saint's place in the eight,
below is a list on how many times each of the top nine teams plays other teams currently out of the eight.
From memory this follows on from very difficult draws in the 2 previous years.
This puts us at a handicap of maybe 2 games against a team like Geelong who gets to play North and West Coast twice.
It is quite apparent that the Saints have copped the worst fixture on top of our eight matches out of Melbourne (7 interstate and 1 in Geelong)
Geel 4
Bris 4
Syd 4
Rich 4
Freo 3
Coll 3
Carl 2
Melb 2
StK 1
Hawthorn are a bottom team and we play them at home as well.
Plus we play the second bottom team in the Eagles - we play them in Perth but we should still win that.
The Dogs are having a down year as well, so that's 50/50.
I think conservatively we win 5 from last 7.
saint4life
-
- Saintsational Legend
- Posts: 10191
- Joined: Fri 16 Feb 2007 3:24pm
- Location: WARBURTON
- Has thanked: 145 times
- Been thanked: 1306 times
Re: Luck of the Draw?
Our fixture is a pile of s***. Games in Geelong which Carlton and Collingwood never have to worry about.
NO IFS OR BUTS HARVS IS KING OF THE AFL
- The Fireman
- Saintsational Legend
- Posts: 13268
- Joined: Mon 08 Mar 2004 11:54pm
- Has thanked: 649 times
- Been thanked: 1918 times
- SaintPav
- Saintsational Legend
- Posts: 18947
- Joined: Wed 16 Jun 2010 9:24pm
- Location: Alma Road
- Has thanked: 1587 times
- Been thanked: 1987 times
Re: Luck of the Draw?
The Essendon loss was inexcusable and will hurt us.
I think it suits them to have their backs to wall.
I think it suits them to have their backs to wall.
Holder of unacceptable views and other thought crimes.
- SaintPav
- Saintsational Legend
- Posts: 18947
- Joined: Wed 16 Jun 2010 9:24pm
- Location: Alma Road
- Has thanked: 1587 times
- Been thanked: 1987 times
Re: Luck of the Draw?
Who knows, but that is beside the point.
Like all things these days, the fixture is rigged.
So much for “equity”.
Holder of unacceptable views and other thought crimes.
- Sainter_Dad
- Saintsational Legend
- Posts: 6316
- Joined: Thu 05 Jun 2008 1:04pm
- Has thanked: 262 times
- Been thanked: 1118 times
Re: Luck of the Draw?
I think you have miscalculated - for instance - we play Hawthorn, Bulldogs and Eagles - so that is 3 (and would be 4 if we had beaten Sydney as they would now be 9th)StPeter wrote: ↑Sun 03 Jul 2022 1:54pm Assuming Richmond beat WC today and take the Saint's place in the eight,
below is a list on how many times each of the top nine teams plays other teams currently out of the eight.
From memory this follows on from very difficult draws in the 2 previous years.
This puts us at a handicap of maybe 2 games against a team like Geelong who gets to play North and West Coast twice.
It is quite apparent that the Saints have copped the worst fixture on top of our eight matches out of Melbourne (7 interstate and 1 in Geelong)
Geel 4
Bris 4
Syd 4
Rich 4
Freo 3
Coll 3
Carl 2
Melb 2
StK 1
I have:
Geelong Cats 5
Richmond 5
Brisbane Lions 4
Fremantle 4
Collingwood 4
Carlton 3
St Kilda 3
Melbourne 2
And if we won the game against Port:
Collingwood 5
Richmond 5
Geelong Cats 4
Fremantle 4
St Kilda 4
Sydney Swans 4
Brisbane Lions 3
Carlton 3
Melbourne 2
So I would think Melbourne is the worst in terms of playing outside of the 8 - but by far the better starting point
“Youth ages, immaturity is outgrown, ignorance can be educated, and drunkenness sobered, but stupid lasts forever.”
― Aristophanes
If you have a Bee in your Bonnet - I can assist you with that - but it WILL involve some smacking upside the head!
― Aristophanes
If you have a Bee in your Bonnet - I can assist you with that - but it WILL involve some smacking upside the head!
-
- SS Hall of Fame
- Posts: 2203
- Joined: Wed 19 Aug 2009 10:32pm
- Location: Del Mar, California
- Has thanked: 34 times
- Been thanked: 237 times
Re: Luck of the Draw?
It's technically not Luck of the Draw.
That would imply that the games were decided by drawing the teams from a hat, like they decide the barrier draw for the Melbourne Cup. If there was a draw, then luck plays an important part.
But the AFL schedule is not decided by a draw, perhaps calling it a fixture is more relevant. This means the schedule is arbitrarily fixed by the AFL.
The criteria for the fixture is not necessarily based on fairness or equality, but rather on optimizing or maximizing the commercial benefits for the AFL and their TV ratings.
So luck has nothing to do with it, the schedule un-apologetically fixed, and typically this favors the high rating teams.
That would imply that the games were decided by drawing the teams from a hat, like they decide the barrier draw for the Melbourne Cup. If there was a draw, then luck plays an important part.
But the AFL schedule is not decided by a draw, perhaps calling it a fixture is more relevant. This means the schedule is arbitrarily fixed by the AFL.
The criteria for the fixture is not necessarily based on fairness or equality, but rather on optimizing or maximizing the commercial benefits for the AFL and their TV ratings.
So luck has nothing to do with it, the schedule un-apologetically fixed, and typically this favors the high rating teams.
-
- Club Player
- Posts: 508
- Joined: Sun 07 Jan 2007 4:18pm
- Location: Derby, West Kimberley WA
- Has thanked: 761 times
- Been thanked: 149 times
Re: Luck of the Draw?
Our 2022 fixture looked difficult from the start, but we have only ourselves to blame for our current position out on the ladder because we lost winnable games and failed to build percentage when we had the opportunities.
-
- SS Hall of Fame
- Posts: 2490
- Joined: Mon 19 Mar 2012 8:54pm
- Has thanked: 140 times
- Been thanked: 546 times
Re: Luck of the Draw?
Absolutely the loss to Port was just typical St.Kilda snatched defeat from the jaws of victory . Should have beaten North by 100 points but didn't , Essendon owned us ,Sydney owned us hence our % took a big hit so now we are a game down on percentage against teams challenging for 8 . Yeah it's a tough draw but we are our own worst enemy IMO anyway
- Devilhead
- Saintsational Legend
- Posts: 8388
- Joined: Mon 08 Mar 2004 11:56pm
- Has thanked: 138 times
- Been thanked: 1172 times
Re: Luck of the Draw?
No game going forward is a guaranteed win ... even Hawks and Eagles
The Devil makes work for idle hands!!!
- samuraisaint
- Saintsational Legend
- Posts: 5910
- Joined: Sun 25 Sep 2011 3:23pm
- Location: M32
- Has thanked: 855 times
- Been thanked: 797 times
Re: Luck of the Draw?
Calton beat Geelong at Geelong in 2020 by 2 points. No excuses.
Your friendly neighbourhood samurai.
- samuraisaint
- Saintsational Legend
- Posts: 5910
- Joined: Sun 25 Sep 2011 3:23pm
- Location: M32
- Has thanked: 855 times
- Been thanked: 797 times
Re: Luck of the Draw?
Not really - just going by the data. Empirically based prediction.chook23 wrote: ↑Sun 03 Jul 2022 6:04pmVery very optimisticsamuraisaint wrote: ↑Sun 03 Jul 2022 5:29pmSwans, Brisbane and Fremantle all should be wins to us at home.StPeter wrote: ↑Sun 03 Jul 2022 1:54pm Assuming Richmond beat WC today and take the Saint's place in the eight,
below is a list on how many times each of the top nine teams plays other teams currently out of the eight.
From memory this follows on from very difficult draws in the 2 previous years.
This puts us at a handicap of maybe 2 games against a team like Geelong who gets to play North and West Coast twice.
It is quite apparent that the Saints have copped the worst fixture on top of our eight matches out of Melbourne (7 interstate and 1 in Geelong)
Geel 4
Bris 4
Syd 4
Rich 4
Freo 3
Coll 3
Carl 2
Melb 2
StK 1
Hawthorn are a bottom team and we play them at home as well.
Plus we play the second bottom team in the Eagles - we play them in Perth but we should still win that.
The Dogs are having a down year as well, so that's 50/50.
I think conservatively we win 5 from last 7.
This week we play the Dockers here - v good recent record against them - won 7 of 11 - and 2 of those four losses were by 6 points or less.
Week after - Bulldogs at Docklands - won 3 out of last 4 including a final.
Then Eagles in Perth - currently sitting second last with two wins and a % of 55.
Hawks back at Docklands again - won our last 4 against them, and 5 out of 7. Three of those wins was by well over 10 goals.
Geelong at Geelong - okay, loss.
Brisbane at Dockands - probably lose that one, although winnable here.
Swans - here in Melbourne - beaten them easily the last two seasons, of course they have beaten us too, but it is our last home game of the season and I like us here combined with their recent inconsistency turns the game in our favour.
5 out of 7 simples.
Your friendly neighbourhood samurai.