Jack Carroll

[TheGreatZacsby]

Hope this silences the lambs on this boomer forum:

[Brunswicksainter]

Deja Vu.

I couldn’t pick Carroll in a line up, and don’t recall seeing him play so I won’t comment on his ability.

However I have been concerned around SOS arriving at the Saints and what input he has in recruiting.

Drafting of first round picks during his tenure at GWS was horrendous, not much better at Carlton.

At Carlton he flooded them with failed GWS rejects and I am concerned he is doing the same at St Kilda with Dow and now Carroll.

I hope it is coincidence, and I hope Carroll is a player, I just don’t rate SOS at all.

His drafting at GWS was incredibly good what are you on about? He selected almost all of their current champion players. Besides those two years where he went a bit crazy with the GWS rejects, his record at Carlton was also tremendous, he turned that club around from where it was as one of the worse performing sides of the 2000's to where it is today. Cripps, Curnow, Mackay, Walsh and Weitering are all among his personal picks. Grossly underrated list manager.

Almost all of their champion players?
Absolute bulls***!
Name the players he picked that make up almost all of their current champions.

SOS was only at GWS for three years and here is a list of his incredibly good first round picks.
He then recruited 12 (yes 12) former GWS players to Carlton.

Yes there's a handful of good picks on the journey, but overall the first round recruiting during his tenure at GSW was the worst in AFL history and poor to average at Carlton, not to mention taking GWS fringe players.

GWS
#1 Jon Patton
#1 Tom Boyd
#2 Jono O'Rourke
#3 Dom Tyson
#3 Lachie Plowman
#4 Jarred Picket
#5 Matt Buntine
#5 Will Setterfield
#6 Caleb Marchbank
#6 Paul Ahern
#10 Liam Sumner
#12 Kristin Jacksh
#14 Aidan Corr

Carlton
#3 Dow
#4 Stocker (gave up #4 for #19)
#6 Sam Petrevski-Seton
#10 O'Brien
#17 Brodie Kemp
#19 Blaine Boekhurst

Then SOS doubled down on a swag of the guys who couldn't cut it at GWS and recruited them to Carlton, where he got the arse BTW despite being a club playing legend and part of the Carlton Royal family.

Great player, probably a ripping bloke but very ordinary history at GWS and Carlton.

Moronic post, you clearly have bias here. As you know the list you posted here is a cherry picked minority of GWS picks during his tenure. His strike rate at the blues and GWS in the first and second rounds is exceptional.

Name champion GWS players SOS selected? Try almost every good +100 gamer to ever player for the giants including (but not even slightly limited to); Congolio, Greene, Cameron, Hayes, Whitfield, Trealor, Hoskin Elliot, Taylor Adams, Kelly, Taranto, Tomlinson, Boyd (who contrary to your view was an exceptional player), Zac Williams, Nathan Wilson, Smith, Jack Steele, Lobb and settlefield.

Pretty handy list I would’ve thought.

The entire backbone of Carlton’s success in recent times is due to him. Almost all of their good current players he drafted or recruited.

Very ordinary history at Carlton and GWS? Again Moronic.

This hilarious post by Brunswicksainter, attempts to be demeaning by referring to ‘moronic posts’ while claiming amongst SOS’s First round drafting success:

# 1- Tom Boyd (9 games) traded for Caleb Marchbank (7 games) and Ryan Griffen (55 games)
Griffen was a good player but a combined 71 games from a #1 (over 3 players) is a total bust, even Paddy McCartin played 63 games (more than Boyd BTW). Thank god for SOS he got Griffen and not another first rounder to waste.

Brunswicksainter thinks trading King would be a win (82 games & 162 goals) and rates McCartin a failure, but Boyd a success and an exceptional player, though Paddy played more games and King is well in front of them both. For the record I rate both McCartin & Boyd as a #1 bust.

If we are able to trade king this off season, I can’t see a situation where we lose out.

I still to this day cannot believe our recruiters went against the expectations of the entire AFL industry all other club scouts in picking Mccartin.

# 4 - Hoskin- Elliott (42 games) traded for #28
Nick Coffield played 52 games for the saints and as a pick 8 is considered a bust.

# 5 – Will Setterfield (2 games) traded for 4th round pick
Seriously if Setterfield is considered a success list we might as well include the outstanding AFL careers of O’Rourke, Pickett, Sumner and Ahern as well

Brunswicksainter rates Billings #3 and his 171 games a spud, but calls Hoskin-Elliott #4 & Setterfield #5 GWS successful SOS first round picks

Billings is a spud

Brunswicksainter's gun list (minus Setterfields 2 games and Hoskin-Elliotts 42 games) leaves 10 good, very good or gun first round draft picks:
Congolio, Greene, Cameron, Hayes (I assume you mean Haynes), Whitfield, Trealor, Taylor Adams, Kelly, Taranto, Tomlinson

And 14 very average, poor or total bust first round draft picks:
Jon Patton, Tom Boyd, Jono O'Rourke, Hoskin-Elliott, Dom Tyson, Lachie Plowman, Jarred Picket, Matt Buntine, Will Setterfield, Caleb Marchbank, Paul Ahern, Liam Sumner, Kristin Jacksh, Aidan Corr

So, you are happy with a rounded up 42% strike rate for successful first round picks and that makes SOS a genius, well good for you Brunswicksainter. Hell, I’ll throw in Setterfield and his 2 games and Boyd’s 9 games into the win column to get SOS’s incredible record up to a strike rate of 50% wins on first round selection.

But SOS wasn’t done with his failed GWS first rounders and players who couldn’t cut the mustard, not by a long, long way (even Brunswicksainter agrees here) he doubled down on 12 of them, YES “12 TWELVE” GWS players were recruited to Carlton while SOS was there. Some household names there that SOS just wouldn’t give up on – loyalty.

Marchbank, Sumner, Whiley, Pickett, Palmer, (Brunswicksainters boy) Setterfield, Kennedy, Jaksch, Lamb, Buckley, Plowman, Phillips

So Brunswicksainter, you may choose to be a fanboy of SOS, that's fine with me.
I think he was a gun player and is probably a great bloke (I have never met him).
But I look at his first round recruiting at GWS and it is a horror show for anyone with a semblance of common sense.

BTW, I think SOS got the gig at the Saints because he is great mates with RTB, not because he has a record of any substance.

12 GWS rejects to Carlton geez even SOS fanboy sycophant Brunswicksainter acknowledges that series of stupidity.

Let's hope the pattern is broken and we don't take a list of Carlton rejects like Dow for the next few years.

Geez you’re a peanut. Put a lot of effort in this post to more or less prove my point.

A 50% success rate among first round selections would rank SOS among the top recruiters of the past few decades, that’s is an excellent strike rate.

Yes Boyd had a better career than McCartin and king (so far) he is one of the key reasons the dogs won in the gf and that’s all that matters. Dont think you would find many to disagree with this.

Yes Settlefield and Hoskin Elliot are exponentially better players than billings and were great selections at the time. Not sure how them or Boyd leaving reflects poorly on SOS’ ability to identify talent in the draft?

Horror show his time at GWS? Didn’t seem like that in 2019? I’m sure Carlton fans are pretty happy with the team he built now.

Out of interest can we run a little exercise here, who do you think is a good recruiter in the league currently?

[Nick DalSanto Claus]

Simon Dalrymple.

[mad saint guy]

A 50% success rate among first round selections would rank SOS among the top recruiters of the past few decades, that’s is an excellent strike rate.

In the nineties? Sure. In the modern era, 50% is a terrible strike rate in the first round. SOS has proven to be an inept recruiter and I hope he has minimal influence at the draft. The dude traded pick 4 to draft Stocker.

Of the 21 first round picks in the 2015 draft, 16 of them will play 100+ games. It's looking like 18 of the 21 from 2016 will play 100+ games. 15 out of 19 should hit 100+ from 2017.

50% is a terrible strike rate, especially considering how many of those first rounders were top 10 picks.

[Brunswicksainter]

A 50% success rate among first round selections would rank SOS among the top recruiters of the past few decades, that’s is an excellent strike rate.

In the nineties? Sure. In the modern era, 50% is a terrible strike rate in the first round. SOS has proven to be an inept recruiter and I hope he has minimal influence at the draft. The dude traded pick 4 to draft Stocker.

Of the 21 first round picks in the 2015 draft, 16 of them will play 100+ games. It's looking like 18 of the 21 from 2016 will play 100+ games. 15 out of 19 should hit 100+ from 2017.

50% is a terrible strike rate, especially considering how many of those first rounders were top 10 picks.

Complete nonsense. Who do you think is a good recruiter presently? Let’s compare their picks.

[Brunswicksainter]

Simon Dalrymple.

Simon Dalrymple first round picks during his time as head recuriter at Sydney (2018-2023)
- Nick Blakey (Academy)
- James Rowbottom
- Dylan Stephens
- William Gould
- Logan McDonald
- Braedan Campbell
- Angus Sheldrick
- Jacob Konstanty
- Will Green

20% strike rate, with a 4 of top 10 picks included in that bunch

[silverhalo]

Mmmmm.....nowhere near as good as Chris Toce but it sounds like it's going to be pretty difficult to get it wrong this year with the exceptionally strong candidates available.

[Mr Magic]

Mmmmm.....nowhere near as good as Chris Toce but it sounds like it's going to be pretty difficult to get it wrong this year with the exceptionally strong candidates available.

It won’t matter who we pick, there will be some on here bagging the selections as stupid, dumb, wrong.

[The Fireman]

Mmmmm.....nowhere near as good as Chris Toce but it sounds like it's going to be pretty difficult to get it wrong this year with the exceptionally strong candidates available.

It won’t matter who we pick, there will be some on here bagging the selections as stupid, dumb, wrong.

We are blessed with many self confessed oracles here

[Yorkeys]

Simon Dalrymple.

Simon Dalrymple first round picks during his time as head recuriter at Sydney (2018-2023)
- Nick Blakey (Academy)
- James Rowbottom
- Dylan Stephens
- William Gould
- Logan McDonald
- Braedan Campbell
- Angus Sheldrick
- Jacob Konstanty
- Will Green

20% strike rate, with a 4 of top 10 picks included in that bunch

Our approach to this seems to be that the ultimate success/failure/development of an early draft pick lies solely with the head recruitment official.
This might not be fair.
Isn't what happens with the draft that promising raw talent is put on a club's production line to produce a polished finished player in a year or two with a lot of others involved in the process - and there are a lot of unknowns when making the initial choice.
Obviously there are clear failures in the initial choices e.g. P. McCartin because the recruiter was far too naive and dismissive of his diabetic condition (susceptibility to concussion was not originally known, I think) and possibly Billings in a star loaded year.
But by and large the recruits delivered in the draft are athletically suited to AFL, can play to a good standard and as far as can be assessed of sound mind and are ranked objectively and subjectively by mainly physical characteristics.
Then the recruit gets passed on to the production line and his life outside of football happens and the recruit is pitted against players similarly talented, some more experienced and some more talented and shaped by various coaches.
What could go wrong.
Well for one, some people cannot cope with intense competition and meeting consistent high standards, but who is to know that until the stress test is applied in a real world setting.
Maybe even a 20% success rate is OK, does a team turn over about once every 5 years on average*? - can a 100% success rate even be absorbed by a Club (possibly no, that's why GWS shed so much talent when given the world).
Is the chap that recruited Jack Lukosius a dummy - 195cm, kick like a mule, footy smarts, quick - or did the Suns production line spoil the raw talent or is it Hardwick couldn't be bothered trying to extract the obvious potential.

*noting it seems Saints are presently looking to turn over the 2022 playing group in 3 years.

[CURLY]

Having a player like Carrol means that a player like Byrnes is overlooked. Must improve our depth.

[whiskers3614]

Having a player like Carrol means that a player like Byrnes is overlooked. Must improve our depth.

Did Byrnes run over your dog?
Obsessed!

[CURLY]

Having a player like Carrol means that a player like Byrnes is overlooked. Must improve our depth.

Did Byrnes run over your dog?
Obsessed!

No he’s just not best 22

[spert]

Having a player like Carrol means that a player like Byrnes is overlooked. Must improve our depth.

Did Byrnes run over your dog?
Obsessed!

No he’s just not best 22

Lyon is a fan of Byrnes, so see how we go

[SAINT-LEE]

Other Carlton supporters are disappointed that he got delisted and have a different view of his skillset.

He's not Shane Birss and he's not Dean Polo.

Damn straight! There's only one Polzy!

[B.M]

50% strike rate with First round selections (mostly top 10

Is not good enough

If you’re happy with that, you’re easily pleased

Would you be happy
If pick 7 was very good but pick 8 is a spud!?!

[Yorkeys]

50% strike rate with First round selections (mostly top 10

Is not good enough

If you’re happy with that, you’re easily pleased

Would you be happy
If pick 7 was very good but pick 8 is a spud!?!

I'd be happy one was very good. Disappointed about the spud but realistic enough to know that's probably par.
Better than 2 spuds.
But I think you miss the point suggesting whether a draftee turns out very good might not rest solely with the person calling the name of the chosen player i.e. there are other important moving parts in the development process outside the control of the head recruiter.

[CURLY]

To be fair SOS had to recruit for every position as they started with basically nothing.

[mad saint guy]

A 50% success rate among first round selections would rank SOS among the top recruiters of the past few decades, that’s is an excellent strike rate.

In the nineties? Sure. In the modern era, 50% is a terrible strike rate in the first round. SOS has proven to be an inept recruiter and I hope he has minimal influence at the draft. The dude traded pick 4 to draft Stocker.

Of the 21 first round picks in the 2015 draft, 16 of them will play 100+ games. It's looking like 18 of the 21 from 2016 will play 100+ games. 15 out of 19 should hit 100+ from 2017.

50% is a terrible strike rate, especially considering how many of those first rounders were top 10 picks.

Complete nonsense. Who do you think is a good recruiter presently? Let’s compare their picks.

How is what I stated nonsense? That's a pretty good sample size of 49 players out of 61 taken in the first round over three years hitting 100 games. That's an 80% strike rate between all recruiters participating. 50% is not up to scratch.

[Yorkeys]

It's nonsense because you are apparently comparing aggregate all club whole of draft cohort figures with an individual club. The aggregate figure has to be better and doesn't reflect individual intuitive excellence. Actually shows 20% are already destined to fail? So the nominal 50% adjusts immediately to a 70% comparison rate? Is that fair?
You would need to know what other recruiters would have done better in exactly the same circumstances, which is impossible, to rate recruiters against themselves, yes?

[Otiman]

Just watched the BA video, he's a first receiver with quick hands to the outside. He will definitely need some stars around him to shine.

[mad saint guy]

It's nonsense because you are apparently comparing aggregate all club whole of draft cohort figures with an individual club. The aggregate figure has to be better and doesn't reflect individual intuitive excellence. Actually shows 20% are already destined to fail? So the nominal 50% adjusts immediately to a 70% comparison rate? Is that fair?
You would need to know what other recruiters would have done better in exactly the same circumstances, which is impossible, to rate recruiters against themselves, yes?

Your argument literally makes no sense. If the average amongst all recruiters is an 80% strike rate in the first round and one recruiter has a 50% strike rate, then it's clear that recruiter is underperforming.

Just like if key forwards in the comp have a 60% goal to behind ratio on average while an individual sits at 40%, they're a below average shot on goal.

[TheGreatZacsby]

Just watched the BA video, he's a first receiver with quick hands to the outside. He will definitely need some stars around him to shine.

That was my first impression as well Otiman. I hope we get some decent contested ball winners in this draft and help feed it out to him, Wilson and Henry get some pace going.

[Killa]

Curly has a point

There was the building of a side, starting with structure hence rucks, kpp’s, mids both inside and out

And the reason those who bang on on this site about mids miss the point of the exercise, which is to recruit the potential best player available

In recent years we have recruited the likes of Steele, Hill and Henry - and this is a factor in assembling a side

[Brunswicksainter]

A 50% success rate among first round selections would rank SOS among the top recruiters of the past few decades, that’s is an excellent strike rate.

In the nineties? Sure. In the modern era, 50% is a terrible strike rate in the first round. SOS has proven to be an inept recruiter and I hope he has minimal influence at the draft. The dude traded pick 4 to draft Stocker.

Of the 21 first round picks in the 2015 draft, 16 of them will play 100+ games. It's looking like 18 of the 21 from 2016 will play 100+ games. 15 out of 19 should hit 100+ from 2017.

50% is a terrible strike rate, especially considering how many of those first rounders were top 10 picks.

Complete nonsense. Who do you think is a good recruiter presently? Let’s compare their picks.

How is what I stated nonsense? That's a pretty good sample size of 49 players out of 61 taken in the first round over three years hitting 100 games. That's an 80% strike rate between all recruiters participating. 50% is not up to scratch.

For a couple of obvious and undeniable reasons.

1) Playing 100 games is not an indication of a good selection. 50% also isn’t SOS’ strike rate of selecting 100+ game players in the first round. This stat has no relevance to anything previously discussed on this forum.
2) The three years you have cherry picked (2015-2017) for your analysis is the best three year draft pool in the history of the league. Lets compare to 2010,2011 and 2012?
3) SOS’ ability to identify elite talent (all Australians) in the first round whilst at GWS and Carlton would place him well above 90% of the recruiters in the league. Again 50% is the number of good players he’s selected at GWS (not just +100 game players) whilst combatting two years of historically weak draft pools in 2011 and 2012. Also let’s not conveniently forgot his time at Carlton where he drafted the best defender, forward and mid in the game over a two year period. For every GWS “reject” he brought in for chips he was also in the team that found an 5 x All Australians, 2x Coleman winners and a Brownlow medalist.

Interesting everyone is smashing SOS on here but no one can give me a current recruiter that has a better record of identifying talent through the draft.