emma quayle says saints will be going downhill in 2 years,.

[saintsRrising]

i've read it. i thought this was an extra-ordinary situation. hey did you read the homepage 'True Believer'?. Yeah that's mine.

Sorry I missed the part in the stickie stating that writing a piece for the home page meant you could ignore forum rules.

[Top4King]

i've read it. i thought this was an extra-ordinary situation. hey did you read the homepage 'True Believer'?. Yeah that's mine.

Sorry I missed the part in the stickie stating that writing a piece for the home page meant you could ignore forum rules.

apology accepted hey did you find emma's picks?

[Top4King]

i cant find it. i know she picked trengove @1

saintbrat???

[joffaboy]

She is spot on except for the two years bit.

I reckon we have probably got four years and then it is rebuilding time.

Just in time for the first uncompromised draft.

basically we need to win one or more flags by 2013 or we will be waiting until 2020 before we have another crack.

[saint66au]

i've read it. i thought this was an extra-ordinary situation. hey did you read the homepage 'True Believer'?. Yeah that's mine.

Sorry I missed the part in the stickie stating that writing a piece for the home page meant you could ignore forum rules.

apology accepted hey did you find emma's picks?

The article quote has been deleted..and Top4King...you are dangerously close to yet another of your nicknames being banned...behave!!

[saint66au]

i think it's important that we publish the article in full:

:

I think you might want to read the first Stickie then.....see at top of page.

i've read it. i thought this was an extra-ordinary situation. hey did you read the homepage 'True Believer'?. Yeah that's mine.

You claiming another posters work as your own ?

[matrix]

[SainterK]

i think it's important that we publish the article in full:

:

I think you might want to read the first Stickie then.....see at top of page.

i've read it. i thought this was an extra-ordinary situation. hey did you read the homepage 'True Believer'?. Yeah that's mine.

You claiming another posters work as your own ?

Yeah, I seem to recall the poster that helped out True Believer was in fact Bayside Saint

[vacuous space]

Emma Quayle is a fantastic journalist. She didn't say we'd tumble down the ladder, she didn't say we'd implode - she just said that she has her doubts about our youth. It's not an outrageous statement. We have three players taken in the top-20 in the last five drafts and two more who were taken in the top-40. We're not overwhelmed with high-end youth.

That doesn't mean we're doomed. We could have some later picks and rookies defy the odds and become elite players. We could have our high-end talent play for longer than expected. There's no reason we have to fall down the ladder as our players age and retire. You can see why someone like Emma Quayle would have her doubts though.

[Saintersss]

People have to realise that sure we have some good young players coming through, but teams who take all their picks and do not trade them are in a much better position than us and of course teams who finish lower have better picks and are more likely to pick up better players.

Have a look at Adelaide's, Collingwood's, Essendon's and Carlton's list etc. and tell me we have better young players then them.

But I don't think it matters too much that we are trading our picks away because OUR time is now, so we may as well go all out. If it means we'll be near the bottom in a couple years time so be it as long as we can win premiership during our time.

Now sure there is a rare chance that our low picks will be gems and maybe we could stay up the ladder, but the chances are low.

[S.A Saint]

for some reason i dont think that we will bottom out like some people suggest...take a look at the swans...they have always been there or thereabouts...they have got plenty of young talent coming through as well as aging players...they seem to be always around the eight mark with being near the bottom and i believe that will be us in about 4 or so years time ...teams that are bottoming out usually have a massive clean out with 5 or 6 old players who have kept the team together retiring at once...our transformation will be more subtle i think...

[Ghost Like]

It's a reasonable assumption by Emma based purely on draft picks but I think her time frame is a little narrow. I think 3 to 5 years could be the period we start to go backwards or get overtaken but alot of things can happen in that period...our few picks, although quite high could end up being gems and the high picks of other clubs may not be the pieces of gold those clubs hope they become.

Still she has to write something given her brief on judging the draft & all things being equal, clubs get similar runs with injuries, draft picks perform in their order, gun players getting older & slower, young guns developing then she's probably going to be right but alot can happen in 2 years and not all of it will be what we expect.

[BAM! (shhhh)]

Emma I normally rate quite highly...but in this case people should not get too excited. It was a "filler" article with a few paragraphs on each club and mainly lightweight lines. Not normal Emm material at all.

Compared to the detailed in-depth articles that she normally writes this was paper to line the bird-cage.

Filler article? It's a draft review by the Age's number 1 on all things draft related. Straight down the middle core Quayle writing, the only difference is in style.

That said, I'm impressed that this place has managed to (for the most part) curb it's normal parochial requirement to blast any unflattering journalism.

In this case, I disagree with Quayle 100%. Right now, I actually think the best moves are being made by the select few clubs playing with "mature" players - teams are overvaluing draft picks and kids that will never do anything and undervaluing any player that hasn't won a brownlow and premiership - scratch that, the Blues got Judd for a steal. More and more, value is being found in developing players onto the list via the rookie system.

Make no mistake the Saints transition will be difficult when players like Roo & Hayes retire, but that's not going to be addressed easily regardless... the trouble with those who spend all their time looking at kids is they tend to forget that not every one of them is a Roo in the making.

[Hurricane]

Excuse me for my ignorance but who in teh blue hell is Emma Quayle?

BANG BANG

[BelfastSaint]

Excuse me for my ignorance but who in teh blue hell is Emma Quayle?

BANG BANG

Google is your friend ..........

[borderbarry]

It must be remembered that most of the players we have traded for have been reasonably young, apart from King, Gardiner and Lovett.

[saintly]

People have to realise that sure we have some good young players coming through, but teams who take all their picks and do not trade them are in a much better position than us and of course teams who finish lower have better picks and are more likely to pick up better players.

Have a look at Adelaide's, Collingwood's, Essendon's and Carlton's list etc. and tell me we have better young players then them.

But I don't think it matters too much that we are trading our picks away because OUR time is now, so we may as well go all out. If it means we'll be near the bottom in a couple years time so be it as long as we can win premiership during our time.

Now sure there is a rare chance that our low picks will be gems and maybe we could stay up the ladder, but the chances are low.

the issue may be what happens if thewe don't win the priemership within the next 3 years. ?

what then?

the saints then just may implode, go down hill fast, without gaining the perimeriship we all desire.

[Hurricane]

Excuse me for my ignorance but who in teh blue hell is Emma Quayle?

BANG BANG

Google is your friend ..........

Well it/she/he hasnt added me on facebook so I dont consider them my friend

BANG BANG

[Con Gorozidis]

Emma is right. Id have a liked another kid or two this year (yes pick 25 for Ball would have been nice! as well as using 32 on Winmar).

On the other hand her cred is in the toilet.

After WA dominated National under 18 Champs and there were only 7 Victorian players in the All Australian side (our of 22) - Emma had 15 Vics in her top 22 draft prospects.

2009 All Aus Team - 15 interstate - 7 Vic

Emma Quayle - 7 insterstate - 15 Vic

Actual Draft - 10 interstate - 12 Vic

Sure this is one sample and people will say it not big enough - But im sure it would be similar or stronger in previous years if u botherd to look bat over the past 10.

To me this shows that clubs are still biased/parochial to local players. And Journos like Emma are very biased/parochial.

So bargains/value will still mainly be found outside TAC/Victoria (Our 2 Sam's + Lenny for instance).

[Con Gorozidis]

Ok..based on Saints who are currently 26 or less we have a team of:

Smith Dawson Miles
Dempster Gilbert Peake
DalSanto Goddard Montagna
Gram Lynch McQualter
Schneider Cahill Jones

McEvoy Armitage Steven

Stanley Geary Ray Clarke

Quite likely to still be playing in 2012 = Roo, Lovett, Kosi, Sam Fisher

Wildcard = Walsh

Rookies = Given our recent success it is likely that one or two new rookies will have forced their way in the 2012 team

Lenny and Roo are our only two true current elites. Losing them would make a hole in any team.

however BJ may well soon be one.

Replace Peake with Jesse Smith. Replace Clarke with Winmar. Find a spot for Tommy Simpkin and we dont look too bad at all...

[BAM! (shhhh)]

Emma is right. Id have a liked another kid or two this year (yes pick 25 for Ball would have been nice! as well as using 32 on Winmar).

On the other hand her cred is in the toilet.

After WA dominated National under 18 Champs and there were only 7 Victorian players in the All Australian side (our of 22) - Emma had 15 Vics in her top 22 draft prospects.

2009 All Aus Team - 15 interstate - 7 Vic

Emma Quayle - 7 insterstate - 15 Vic

Actual Draft - 10 interstate - 12 Vic

Sure this is one sample and people will say it not big enough - But im sure it would be similar or stronger in previous years if u botherd to look bat over the past 10.

To me this shows that clubs are still biased/parochial to local players. And Journos like Emma are very biased/parochial.

So bargains/value will still mainly be found outside TAC/Victoria (Our 2 Sam's + Lenny for instance).

What on earth does Vic vs interstate have to do with her credibility when looking at the quality of youngsters? She wrote a top 25 preview offering some insight and familiarity with the players.

There are 2 measures:
#1, given she's done this a couple of years running, how are her top players from year past progressing?
#2, how was her top 25 reflected in the actual draft.

I couldn't comment on #1. On #2, she appears to have done pretty well, not just across the top 10 (where I gather there was much more predictability than a lot of years), but across the 25.

A few of her players slipped out (Taylor being the big one, she picked at 15 and he went to Richmond at 51, the others being Vardy 22/42 and Reid 25/38), but her hit rate for top 30 was pretty good considering she wasn't trying to get into the clubs heads and was just rating her top 25.

Compare it to the AA U18s, and I would suggest based on the numbers and a little digging above, all that's demonstrated is that Emma Quayle is a better source of draft likelihood than the U18 All Australian Side. I haven't got a clue who GC got their claws into, but of the (eligible) U18 AA, Hooper, Wilson, Panos, Coyler and McNeil went undrafted. Harwood went at 47 and James Craig went at 61.

I'd say her cred stands up pretty well.

[joffaboy]

It must be remembered that most of the players we have traded for have been reasonably young, apart from King, Gardiner and Lovett.

Jon Ralph agrees with you, but don’t tell anybody on here because apparently he is the devil incarnate around here.



http://www.heraldsun.com.au/sport/afl/c ... 5805129639

Does Ross Lyon just not rate his list if he is so determined to keep topping it up?

On face value Lyon seems obsessed with recycled players, but dig a little deeper and a pattern emerges.
Lyon just loves a bargain. He tends to find players who are underrated or have been injured, and knows that if he can rejuvenate them, the rewards are immense.
Andrew Lovett is the perfect man to roam at half-forward and Brett Peake hasn't lived up to his potential.
If he can get his body right, Jesse Smith could have rival clubs furious they didn't take a similar risk on him, and Adam Pattison is a former first-round pick worth another chance.
The key is getting these players in the right age bracket. Lovett is 27 and ruckmen Steven King and Michael Gardiner were around 30. He knows if he can turn a player's career around, he can get 6-8 good years out of them. You can't knock his record so far.

[Saintersss]

Emma is right. Id have a liked another kid or two this year (yes pick 25 for Ball would have been nice! as well as using 32 on Winmar).

On the other hand her cred is in the toilet.

After WA dominated National under 18 Champs and there were only 7 Victorian players in the All Australian side (our of 22) - Emma had 15 Vics in her top 22 draft prospects.

2009 All Aus Team - 15 interstate - 7 Vic

Emma Quayle - 7 insterstate - 15 Vic

Actual Draft - 10 interstate - 12 Vic

Sure this is one sample and people will say it not big enough - But im sure it would be similar or stronger in previous years if u botherd to look bat over the past 10.

To me this shows that clubs are still biased/parochial to local players. And Journos like Emma are very biased/parochial.

So bargains/value will still mainly be found outside TAC/Victoria (Our 2 Sam's + Lenny for instance).

There is a reason for her top 25 having more Vics than the AA under 18's. A few of top WA players were too young to be drafted this year and will be drafted next year including three of their top players in Swallow, Darling and Matera who all probably would have gone in the top 7 of this years draft. So do a little bit of research before critizing.
And the actual draft is only 3 off, so that is hardly a big difference.

[Con Gorozidis]

Emma is right. Id have a liked another kid or two this year (yes pick 25 for Ball would have been nice! as well as using 32 on Winmar).

On the other hand her cred is in the toilet.

After WA dominated National under 18 Champs and there were only 7 Victorian players in the All Australian side (our of 22) - Emma had 15 Vics in her top 22 draft prospects.

2009 All Aus Team - 15 interstate - 7 Vic

Emma Quayle - 7 insterstate - 15 Vic

Actual Draft - 10 interstate - 12 Vic

Sure this is one sample and people will say it not big enough - But im sure it would be similar or stronger in previous years if u botherd to look bat over the past 10.

To me this shows that clubs are still biased/parochial to local players. And Journos like Emma are very biased/parochial.

So bargains/value will still mainly be found outside TAC/Victoria (Our 2 Sam's + Lenny for instance).

There is a reason for her top 25 having more Vics than the AA under 18's. A few of top WA players were too young to be drafted this year and will be drafted next year including three of their top players in Swallow, Darling and Matera who all probably would have gone in the top 7 of this years draft. So do a little bit of research before critizing.
And the actual draft is only 3 off, so that is hardly a big difference.

sticking by the criticism. too parochial. take those 3 u mention out and u still could have had 11 non vics in the 22 easily. ballbark/back of envelope figure would have been 8-12 non vics in 22.

but 7?

[Saintersss]

Also Wilson (another WA boy who was AA) I believe was too young to be drafted.

Plus Hooper, Panos(SA) and McNeil(NSW) all didn't get drafted and were AA so AA doesn't mean that much and defiently doesn't mean you'll get drafted let alone be drafted in the top 25.

Plus if you look at her players only 3 were drafted outside the top 25 range including Vardy (rated the best ruck in the draft), Taylor (an exictment machine and maybe not top 25 quality, but she is always known to throw up a smoky like Sibisado last year) and Reid.

So I don't know how you can question her creditability. I think you just need to take off your rose-coloured glasses, she is very correct in what she is saying. I mean when other teams are taking at least 2 picks in the top 30 we did not have one, which means of course they are more likely to pick up more quality. I really don't know how you can't see it.