The Pelican being looked at by Carlscum

[FQF]

I don't see Pelchin as doing anything other in a football club than the bleedin' obvious as far as assembling talent for possible development, and if he goes he goes. It takes a whole lot more than a Pelchin to get a club up and competitive and I would be more concerned about the ability of AR to take the playing group to the next step, so for him and if still there, Pelchin, 2015 is going to be the make or break.

disagree 2015 is still rebuild mode .... its not make or break in fact ill say we will prob be worse next year then we were this year

Don't think we will be any worse. If we have a better run with injuries, I think we will be more competitive throughout games than we were this year.

[plugger66]

I don't see Pelchin as doing anything other in a football club than the bleedin' obvious as far as assembling talent for possible development, and if he goes he goes. It takes a whole lot more than a Pelchin to get a club up and competitive and I would be more concerned about the ability of AR to take the playing group to the next step, so for him and if still there, Pelchin, 2015 is going to be the make or break.

disagree 2015 is still rebuild mode .... its not make or break in fact ill say we will prob be worse next year then we were this year

Don't think we will be any worse. If we have a better run with injuries, I think we will be more competitive throughout games than we were this year.

Who do we beat though. We have lost Lenny and surely Roo can be as good next year because of age and losing Lenny. Some younger guys will improve but we still have a fair few older players who cant improve and most likely will go backwards. Im not sure who we beat next year baring an upset win.

[FQF]

I don't see Pelchin as doing anything other in a football club than the bleedin' obvious as far as assembling talent for possible development, and if he goes he goes. It takes a whole lot more than a Pelchin to get a club up and competitive and I would be more concerned about the ability of AR to take the playing group to the next step, so for him and if still there, Pelchin, 2015 is going to be the make or break.

disagree 2015 is still rebuild mode .... its not make or break in fact ill say we will prob be worse next year then we were this year

Don't think we will be any worse. If we have a better run with injuries, I think we will be more competitive throughout games than we were this year.

Who do we beat though. We have lost Lenny and surely Roo can be as good next year because of age and losing Lenny. Some younger guys will improve but we still have a fair few older players who cant improve and most likely will go backwards. Im not sure who we beat next year baring an upset win.

I don't think Roo will go backwards going of this year's form. He had a better year this year than his last few before that, so I don't predict a drop off. Lenny is a big loss but we barely had Jack this year playing at his usual form so it almost evens out.
Hopefully we get consistent years from Gilbert, Fisher, Hickey, Wright, Geary, Savage - all of whom barely contributed this season.

Then I think there will be improvement from many of the younger brigade, some of whom might take very large steps forward. I think Newnes and Webster might be in line for very big years of improvement. I expect Dunstan to get even better. Incremental improvement from Stanley, Billings, White, Wright, Eli, Ross, Weller, Curren, Acres etc. etc. will give us a combined boost (although small). Throw in Petracca who from all reports is ready to slot in round 1.

None of us have a crystal ball but the injuries we had this year were disastrous. If we were a mid-table team it would have derailed our season, but because we were always going to be down the bottom, they have been somewhat overlooked.

Yes we've lost Lenny, Jones and Gwilt. Yes Dempster, Roo, Fisher, Ray will all be a year older. But our younger brigade will all get better, the team will be familiar with the new coach, we will have a more settled line up with more of our squad available for selection.

Who do we beat? We're still better than Melbourne I believe, and there are always teams who drop down the ladder (could be Carlton for one). Bulldogs, Brisbane, GWS all have better lists but will be beatable if we're on.

Or maybe I'm just wearing rose-coloured glasses. Time will tell...

[st_Trav_ofWA]

Lenny is the huge loss
CJ early in the year when we got our wins was in cracking form
Gwilt for all his downfalls was still a strong body down back and while he shanked the kick most times he did provide a contest ...

we saw this year Shnider fall back of the pack very quickly so its amazing what one year can do to a player who is getting close to the end - sometimes it catches them quicker then they thought it would so guys like Ray Dempster Fisher heck even Joey might find themselves below what they were this year

you mention Steven being back will help and yes it will but the questions early are going to be how does he cope with the hard tag without Lenny to shoulder some of the work load ?

we will continue to pump the kids through and its not uncommon for some of the boys to suffer a case of second year blues as they realise that the recovery period between seasons is not a long as it sounds ..

we will try our all next year but i cant see us being lucky enough to catch a Freo unprepared again nor can i see us getting the jump on Essendon like we did this year ... we would go into games against the Dee's and GWS being a 50/50 chance and perhaps give the Lions a bit of a run but other than that i think we will struggle to keep up with the others much like we did this year ...
its really really early but if we get more than 5 wins in 2015 ill be very very impressed by the team

[ace]

You can never pay under 95% of the SC. You can bank the 5% difference and then use it in the following year.

You can however throw a fortune at players who won't be around in a couple of years time.
e.g. pay Riewoldt 2 million a year, Fisher 1 million a year etc.
As a result when their time comes to depart you have space within the salary cap to reward and retain new star recruits.
You don't want to have players on big money early in their careers and then tell them to take a pay cut like happened to Luke Ball.
No-one likes a pay cut, it hurts their ego.
You just need to able to use spreadsheets.

[gringo]

We can cover Lenny if Armo and Steven can have injury free years. Guys like Ross, Saunders and Newnes should improve. Geary will help. Savage seems to have found a spot and Billings and Dunstan should get a bit better again. I think we will be more competitive but probably not win many more games.

[Rosco]

You can never pay under 95% of the SC. You can bank the 5% difference and then use it in the following year.

You can however throw a fortune at players who won't be around in a couple of years time.
e.g. pay Riewoldt 2 million a year, Fisher 1 million a year etc.
As a result when their time comes to depart you have space within the salary cap to reward and retain new star recruits.
You don't want to have players on big money early in their careers and then tell them to take a pay cut like happened to Luke Ball.
No-one likes a pay cut, it hurts their ego.
You just need to able to use spreadsheets.

this is just plain silly, but I guess we are talking about footy players (and their managers) who may not be able to grasp salary cap management

[saintspremiers]

You can never pay under 95% of the SC. You can bank the 5% difference and then use it in the following year.

You can however throw a fortune at players who won't be around in a couple of years time.
e.g. pay Riewoldt 2 million a year, Fisher 1 million a year etc.
As a result when their time comes to depart you have space within the salary cap to reward and retain new star recruits.
You don't want to have players on big money early in their careers and then tell them to take a pay cut like happened to Luke Ball.
No-one likes a pay cut, it hurts their ego.
You just need to able to use spreadsheets.

this is just plain silly, but I guess we are talking about footy players (and their managers) who may not be able to grasp salary cap management

It's a sensible plan. If you did that to Roo and Fisher they'd be playing plenty of tax though! In some ways it would be a reward for getting paid under their market value at times to keep us under our cap during the gold years. That's if that was the case for them

[Legendary]

Agree with the above poster - if Pelchen stuffs things up at the Saints, he won't get another gig in footy, so he's just as invested in our success as anyone.

At this stage in a club's cycle, recruiting and list management is by far the most important aspect of future success. It wouldn't really matter if plugger66 or stinger were coaching the Saints right now - Elshaugh and Pelchen are the guys who will set up our success over the next decade.

The Kangaroos aren't a bad model either - they built a list of mainly B-graders with a few A-graders and it looked like they weren't going to take the next step - but they've added Dal and they could add another free agent and all of a sudden they're right in the frame for a flag.

Pelchen has the runs on the board in this business. Despite what Dermie says, there's a reason that the Blues are looking at him. One of Dermie's main criticisms of Pelchen is that he was not responsible for recruiting Buddy. That was never Pelchen's value. His value was setting them up with a list where they have been contenders for 6 years and will be contenders for another 3-4.

Why do you think Clarko wanted him? I reckon Clarko seems like a pretty good judge of both people and what it takes to succeed in footy.

And don't knock his spreadsheets... apparently they are absolutely incredible. Pelchen's IP is worth six figures alone.

[matrix]

im still trying to figure out why its a strange promise
doesnt really seem strange to me

[evertonfc]

I'm probably the opposite to you in that his short term looks bleak but he is building a potential dynasty by wrecking our current list.

I should have clarified - decisions made in the short-term with a long-term view.

No doubt he is killing our short-term hopes of success, but that's fine with me, because we have zero chance of finals in the next year or two.

[saint6709]

I'm probably the opposite to you in that his short term looks bleak but he is building a potential dynasty by wrecking our current list.

I should have clarified - decisions made in the short-term with a long-term view.

No doubt he is killing our short-term hopes of success, but that's fine with me, because we have zero chance of finals in the next year or two.

For this reason I don't think he is going anywhere just yet - The St Kilda list is still very much a work in progress - I don't think his future job prospects will be done any favours if he starts leaving positions with 'the job half done'

[Megamaguire]

This year and the drafting strategies committed to will highlight the abilities of Pelchin. carlton are demonstrating just how desperate they are. Pelchin has made a commitment to St.Kilda and has to be backed in for a while yet.
Everton makes a good point that his influence should be monitored however.
There's building the list and there's coaching the team. Both need to be done successfully.

G O S A I N T S !

[gringo]

Agree with the above poster - if Pelchen stuffs things up at the Saints, he won't get another gig in footy, so he's just as invested in our success as anyone.

At this stage in a club's cycle, recruiting and list management is by far the most important aspect of future success. It wouldn't really matter if plugger66 or stinger were coaching the Saints right now - Elshaugh and Pelchen are the guys who will set up our success over the next decade.

The Kangaroos aren't a bad model either - they built a list of mainly B-graders with a few A-graders and it looked like they weren't going to take the next step - but they've added Dal and they could add another free agent and all of a sudden they're right in the frame for a flag.

Pelchen has the runs on the board in this business. Despite what Dermie says, there's a reason that the Blues are looking at him. One of Dermie's main criticisms of Pelchen is that he was not responsible for recruiting Buddy. That was never Pelchen's value. His value was setting them up with a list where they have been contenders for 6 years and will be contenders for another 3-4.

Why do you think Clarko wanted him? I reckon Clarko seems like a pretty good judge of both people and what it takes to succeed in footy.

And don't knock his spreadsheets... apparently they are absolutely incredible. Pelchen's IP is worth six figures alone.

Yeah we had an extremely bad period of drafting and trading before Pelchen that dug us into a corner. I get the feeling before he came along there wasn't a lot of process involved in our strategy. More like picking players on a vibe.

I remember watching a carnival match where Nick Winmar played and watching because of the family connection. He was one of the most underwhelming players on the field. Allen Christensen played and absolutely dominated. Enough to make you think he should be on the radar. The rest is history but that's an example of poor recruiting on a whim IMO.

If someone had looked at some stats in comparison we might have done a little better. Processes can fall down too but at least they show some commitment to improvement and structure. It's no coincidence that the best run teams seem to be the best at drafting and development.