c'mon doc, your medical degree needed a little more study of probability. when the events are independent, it's much easier to predict over the long-term than the short. i can get pretty close to the number of heads you'll get if you toss a coin 1000 times, but if you're tossing it once i'm only 50-50.Dr Spaceman wrote:Scientists can predict the weather in 50 years time but have trouble getting tomorrow's forecast right.
We're trying to predict the ladder at the end of the season and really have little hope of picking the 8 winners this week.
that applies to climate but not so much to ladder predicting, because the events aren't independent. i don't reckon anyone will get close this far out.
for what it's worth, if we only win 5 of 9 then we won't be playing well enough anyway, so i'd rather we miss the eight. if we win 6 or 7 then we'll be looking decent, win 8 and we'll be good enough to give anyone a shake.
most likely we win 5 or 6 and scrape in or just miss. but i'm still holding onto hope of a dramatic turnaround in form starting last week.