Stats without Reiwoldt

[Foz]

Its been 4 weeks that Roo has been out so I've had a look at how we are looking in terms of stats without him.

In terms of scoring, we are 15th in the AFL
In terms of goals per inside 50 or 'strike rate' we are 16th
In terms of scoring shots per inside 50, we are ranked 15th

In terms of general play, the 2010 rankings are (2009 in brackets)

disposal 2nd
contested possession 7th
clearances 13th (2nd)
tackles 9th (1st)
points against 1st (1st)

Following the Carlton game, opposition sides in 2010 have entered their inside 50 mark more than the Saints have. To be the number 1 defensive team is therefore a good effort. However with poor clearances, we are under constant pressure. The inability to score in attack seems somewhat indicative of a)lack of forward options and b) slow build up from defence.

[Statsman]

I think it's a whole bunch of factors combining to produce those poor numbers, all of which stem from a general lack of intensity and confidence.

• We're getting beaten at the centre clearances and therefore start each passage of play "chasing tail".
• Having lost the centre clearance, we're having to build from deep in defense instead of starting on the front foot attacking inside 50.
• We're not pressuring as aggressively and therefore aren't creating turnovers to generate free flowing goals on the rebound.
• We lack viable marking options in the forward line and therefore aren't going inside 50 with confidence.
• The lack of marking contests inside 50 means our crumbers aren't finding the opportunistic goals they normally do.
• We're turning the ball over more regularly going inside 50 and as a result we're getting burnt by the opposition on the rebound.
• Allowing the opposition to rebound quickly and easily means we can't set up our zone structures to pin them down.
• The opposition's free flowing rebound from defense is exposing our lack of pace.

The cure many of those ills is to lift our intensity - win our fair share of centre clearances, use the ball more effectively going inside 50 and step up our defensive pressure to lock the ball inside our attacking territory.

Remember last year when we'd see the opposition pinned down deep in their defense and absolutely unable to penetrate our zone to escape? They'd often be trapped kicking the ball around for 4-5 minutes before eventually turning it over for an easy Saints goal. That used to happen serveral times a game. Have we seen anything approaching that level of collective defensive pressure in 2010?

Our intensity and confidence is down and with that we've seen a drop in hardness, decisiveness and defensive pressure. You can't flick a switch to turn on confidence, but you can step up your intensity. If we play with more intensity, the confidence will come and everything else will fall into place.

Saints Footy needs to be something tangible that the players deliver each week, not just meaningless marketing hyperbole.

[bigcarl]

[*]We lack viable marking options in the forward line and therefore aren't going inside 50 with confidence.

a big factor imo. where is the incentive to move it in there quickly if you know it is just going to sail straight back over your head?

with riewoldt there, the mids would have had confidence of a reward for their efforts. with just an out of form kosi ...

so give them something to kick to, both at chf and inside 50.

kosi inside the arc isn't working. the stats show that pretty clearly. so at very least i'd move him to chf and get a dangerous target like goddard deep. give him plenty of space.

if we fall still down at chf, i'd look at gilbert or blake. though he is not a noted goalkicker, blake has a big tank and would present all day like riewoldt.

problem is he is the cornerstone of our defence (imo) and we probably cannot afford him out of there.

[plugger66]

The big stat for me is simple. Tackling first last year ninth this year. Less pressure means we arent getting the turnovers from last year which in turn means we dont move the ball as quickly into our forward line. As I said does anyone think if Plugger and Dunstall played last week would we have won. IMO not a hope because if the ball is moved slowly then the forwards are covered. Quick movement and anyone can kick goals. Freo game in point.

[bigcarl]

The big stat for me is simple. Tackling first last year ninth this year. Less pressure means we arent getting the turnovers from last year which in turn means we dont move the ball as quickly into our forward line. As I said does anyone think if Plugger and Dunstall played last week would we have won. IMO not a hope because if the ball is moved slowly then the forwards are covered. Quick movement and anyone can kick goals. Freo game in point.

i'm sure that is also a big factor plugger and the intensity must lift.

but since rooey went down we are ranked 15th in terms of scoring shots per inside 50 and the worst in the competition for goals per inside 50.

in short, since riewoldt's injury the forward line has been the least efficient in the competiton.

that ought to be ringing a few alarm bells.

[plugger66]

The big stat for me is simple. Tackling first last year ninth this year. Less pressure means we arent getting the turnovers from last year which in turn means we dont move the ball as quickly into our forward line. As I said does anyone think if Plugger and Dunstall played last week would we have won. IMO not a hope because if the ball is moved slowly then the forwards are covered. Quick movement and anyone can kick goals. Freo game in point.

i'm sure that is also a big factor plugger and the intensity must lift.

but in terms of scoring shots per inside 50 we are ranked 15th since rooey went down. that ought to be ringing a few alarm bells.

It is. Since the Freo game our mids and back have moved the ball slower for some reason. Probably lost some confidence. This makes it impossible for the forwards. Mt guess is RL thinks that as well and thats why he isnt going overboard by playing CJ at FF and Geary at CHF.

[bigred]

The big stat for me is simple. Tackling first last year ninth this year. Less pressure means we arent getting the turnovers from last year which in turn means we dont move the ball as quickly into our forward line. As I said does anyone think if Plugger and Dunstall played last week would we have won. IMO not a hope because if the ball is moved slowly then the forwards are covered. Quick movement and anyone can kick goals. Freo game in point.

Agree on the tackling pressure. Its way, way too far down at the moment...

More than anything. More than the pace issue, more than the lack of the key forward issue....Our attrocious disposal is the main problem. General skill issues are smashing us.

[bigcarl]

It is. Since the Freo game our mids and back have moved the ball slower for some reason.

we had goddard forward for quite a bit of that match, providing a dangerous target to go to. a coincidence? no imo.

[plugger66]

It is. Since the Freo game our mids and back have moved the ball slower for some reason.

we had goddard forward for quite a bit of that match, providing a dangerous target to go to. a coincidence?

Dont know. Kosi is a bigger target than him and it isnt helping now.

[bigcarl]

It is. Since the Freo game our mids and back have moved the ball slower for some reason.

we had goddard forward for quite a bit of that match, providing a dangerous target to go to. a coincidence?

Dont know. Kosi is a bigger target than him and it isnt helping now.

he might be bigger, but he's not better.

i dunno. you lose the player most important to your team and structure (riewoldt) and who do you replace him with? imo the next best option (goddard).

[bigcarl]

the other thing i read into those stats is that we might be missing luke ball more than i thought we would.

clearances is a concern and ball, if nothing else, was good at that hard in and under stuff ... getting it out to his teammates.

armitage is not luke ball, but is probably the closest we have to him in terms of style of player. he needs win more of the ball though and lift his workrate.

i think he probably has to play this week to give lenny hayes a hand.

[meher baba]

Watching the game on Monday, I thought the problem was that we simply didn't have enough quality midfielders. The Blues knew that, if they could go 50/50 with Lenny and keep a tight rein on Dal and Joey, they'd be set.

I assume that Steven was expected to chip in in the middle, but he was invisible there and that's presumably why he was dropped.

CJ is sometimes able to get his hands on the ball and do a bit, but he can only do this if his opponent gets drawn into the midfield battle against Lenny, Dal, Joey, etc. This hasn't happened lately: I suspect oppositions are watching CJ a little more closely than they did in his breakthrough season last year, and he's consequently struggling a bit.

Goddard was required to make a very strong contribtion in the midfield on Monday, and therein lies the reason we can't use him forward more often.

Given that Raph seems set to play again this week, I was wondering whether he could be given a run in the middle of the midfield. He loves to tackle and go in hard at contested ball. He will undoubtedly miss the odd tackle and make the odd fumble, but he'll also get his hands on the ball unexpectedly and could really shake things up.

And, of course, Waph wunning awound on the edge of the wuck contests would enable Woss to welease Bwendon to go fowward.

[bergholt]

the other thing i read into those stats is that we might be missing luke ball more than i thought we would.

agreed.

i think it's as simple as st kilda being short one a-grade midfielder, thanks to a disappointing off-season. either ball or lovett would have been that midfielder. different roles, but it's about having enough numbers to share the load.

now we're battling to get one more player up to standard - armo or geary or eddy or mcqualter or peake or steven or even ray - but none of those are currently playing as first choice a-grade mids. and some never will be.

[spert]

I think consistancy is another factor- we are playing in bursts compared to 2009, rather than consistant pressure for four quarters. The midfield and half forwards with their lack of defensive pressure are a culprit here, as the defence is needing to do a lot more work than last season, due to the ball being pumped in there from opposition midfield and running half backs. Our mids need to get first touch of the ball more so than they have been doing.
Our mids and half forwards have dropped off in their offensive game as well, which is not encouraging. Call me old-fashioned, but forwards are supposed to kick goals, not purely be a target for the ball to bounce off in the hope that someone will crumb. Right now we have a disfunctional forward line, and the poor scoreboard return of the midfield is making things worse. I hope it turns around quickly.

[SainterK]

The big stat for me is simple. Tackling first last year ninth this year. Less pressure means we arent getting the turnovers from last year which in turn means we dont move the ball as quickly into our forward line. As I said does anyone think if Plugger and Dunstall played last week would we have won. IMO not a hope because if the ball is moved slowly then the forwards are covered. Quick movement and anyone can kick goals. Freo game in point.

i'm sure that is also a big factor plugger and the intensity must lift.

but in terms of scoring shots per inside 50 we are ranked 15th since rooey went down. that ought to be ringing a few alarm bells.

It is. Since the Freo game our mids and back have moved the ball slower for some reason. Probably lost some confidence. This makes it impossible for the forwards. Mt guess is RL thinks that as well and thats why he isnt going overboard by playing CJ at FF and Geary at CHF.

Since the Freo game, we haven't had the same players though. Lost Gram and Farren, Gram still missed the week after, Farren and Gram played against Carlton but we didn't have Armitage.

Couple this together with all the shuffling, and it's not exactly like stability has been our strong point.

Ross has realised this, that's a start...

[bigcarl]

Given that Raph seems set to play again this week, I was wondering whether he could be given a run in the middle of the midfield. He loves to tackle and go in hard at contested ball. He will undoubtedly miss the odd tackle and make the odd fumble, but he'll also get his hands on the ball unexpectedly and could really shake things up.

agree with that and have suggested it elsewhere.

as to your other point, i'm not sure we can afford NOT to play goddard forward. afterall, it is Nick Riewoldt he would be replacing.

rooey leaves an enormous hole there and the replacement needs to be quality.

[AnythingsPossibleSaints]

Right with you bigcarl. Goddard forward and build the team and gameplan around that, till Roo comes back. Goddard leading out of the goalsquare and doing his tricks against Freo just showed how good he'd be in that posi (more often than not). They've just got to have the guts to stick with it.
I'd much prefer they did that and if things aren't going our way at any stage, put the acid on other guys around the middle to lift, instead of just automatically moving BJ there. Some of these other guys need to lift and show some leadership and ticker.
As far as the stats go, though, the tackles (ranked 9th this year) is a huge drop and our inside 50's, since Roo went out, is also a huge disappointment (ranked 14th, with just 45 per match). So, while our forward line is a shambles, it's clearly not our only problem.

[rodgerfox]

The big stat for me is simple. Tackling first last year ninth this year. Less pressure means we arent getting the turnovers from last year which in turn means we dont move the ball as quickly into our forward line. As I said does anyone think if Plugger and Dunstall played last week would we have won. IMO not a hope because if the ball is moved slowly then the forwards are covered. Quick movement and anyone can kick goals. Freo game in point.

I disagree.

We've played ordinary games where Roo has carried us over the line in.

We were good last year, but Roo's season made us appear great - reality was we were just good.

It showed on GF day when we had 16 more Inside 50s and managed only 3 more shots at goal.

We need him desperately - or we need to spend the next 12 weeks working out a way to be a contender with him just playing a role in a team, not being the team.

[rodgerfox]

the other thing i read into those stats is that we might be missing luke ball more than i thought we would.

agreed.

i think it's as simple as st kilda being short one a-grade midfielder, thanks to a disappointing off-season. either ball or lovett would have been that midfielder. different roles, but it's about having enough numbers to share the load.

now we're battling to get one more player up to standard - armo or geary or eddy or mcqualter or peake or steven or even ray - but none of those are currently playing as first choice a-grade mids. and some never will be.

Again I think the club got sucked in to thinking they had their 'structures' so perfect that anyone could step in and play Luke Ball's role.

Again, they were wrong. It isn't the roles and structures that have made us hard to beat - it's the individual brilliance of the players in those roles that have carried us.

Take those guys out - and frankly we're pretty shiit.

[maverick]

the other thing i read into those stats is that we might be missing luke ball more than i thought we would.

agreed.

i think it's as simple as st kilda being short one a-grade midfielder, thanks to a disappointing off-season. either ball or lovett would have been that midfielder. different roles, but it's about having enough numbers to share the load.

now we're battling to get one more player up to standard - armo or geary or eddy or mcqualter or peake or steven or even ray - but none of those are currently playing as first choice a-grade mids. and some never will be.

Again I think the club got sucked in to thinking they had their 'structures' so perfect that anyone could step in and play Luke Ball's role.

Again, they were wrong. It isn't the roles and structures that have made us hard to beat - it's the individual brilliance of the players in those roles that have carried us.

Take those guys out - and frankly we're pretty shiit.

No one can fill Luke Ball's role, no one

[rodgerfox]

No one can fill Luke Ball's role, no one

No one on our list can.

[saintspremiers]

the other thing i read into those stats is that we might be missing luke ball more than i thought we would.

agreed.

i think it's as simple as st kilda being short one a-grade midfielder, thanks to a disappointing off-season. either ball or lovett would have been that midfielder. different roles, but it's about having enough numbers to share the load.

now we're battling to get one more player up to standard - armo or geary or eddy or mcqualter or peake or steven or even ray - but none of those are currently playing as first choice a-grade mids. and some never will be.

Again I think the club got sucked in to thinking they had their 'structures' so perfect that anyone could step in and play Luke Ball's role.

Again, they were wrong. It isn't the roles and structures that have made us hard to beat - it's the individual brilliance of the players in those roles that have carried us.

Take those guys out - and frankly we're pretty shiit.

Not as shiit as when you last coached us Grant!

[rexy]

s*** might be an over raction RF???? You think?

[rodgerfox]

s*** might be an over raction RF???? You think?

Our last 3 weeks have been shiit.

[rexy]

s*** might be an over raction RF???? You think?

Our last 3 weeks have been shiit.

With 2 i's, that is bad

They have been poor, not up to our standard, disappointing.

Richmond are shiit.