After this weeks to PA just had a look at out our fixture:
Still to go:
We play twice:
• Crows
• Richmond
• Essendon
So I would expect at least 5 out of 6 wins there, if not all 6.
So add to 4 wins that we already have and that is 8/9 wins
Very Winnable Games
Plus we play PA in Melb. = Very winnable
WCE once, but in WA. = Very winnable
North = Very winnable
Demons = Very winnable
Hawks in Round 17 (so may have a few more players back by then) = winnable
Win 2/3 of those 5 games and you have Top 8 finish.
Top 8 finish in many years is 11/12 wins and so as long as we win 12 in Top 8 is virtually guaranteed.
So win 4 of 5 here and that is then 13/14 wins = Possible Top 4 finish , even with no other wins.
Most years:
• 16 or more = Top 2 Finish
• 14 or more = Likely Top 4 Finish. 15 and you are safe.
o Depending on results of other teams less than these wins can get Top 2 or 4, and certainly has in many years.
Then:
• Blues = we would be favourites
• Lions at GABBA = a hard game for us.
Hardest games left are Freo (in Freo) Dogs, Cats and Pies.
• We could lose all of these now and still finish Top 2.
So the rest of our draw this year actually looks quite favourable apart from too many 6-day breaks. We can probably make Top 4 even if we lost all of these “hard “ games.
To those panicking; Fixture to come...
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