How are we still flag favourites?

[SydneySainter]

Why is this?

The majority of the football community have declared 2010 to be the 'year of the Dogs' and apparently the betting money for the Dogs hasn't stopped rolling in, so why are we still favourites and they're third in flag favouritism?

[Bowey Boy]

Perhaps some people recognise that both the Dog's coach and reject forward are rather suspect under pressure. Some people are also aware that any result in the pre-season means next to nothing.

[Solar]

because once they put up the odds at the start of the pre-season the odds are effected by the punters. Obviously there has not been enough money on th dogs to shorten their odds.... simple maths really

[degruch]

30,000 rabid Dogs fans on a silverware high, the club declares itself premiers 2010, the club president declares St Kilda vanquished and the coach declares they're not afraid of anyone, and the poor buggers can't raise enough money between them to make the bookies flinch!

[saintdooley]

its all media talk.
they won the NAB, well done. history of that shows the team does very poorly. Carlton? Wizzard cup, spoon in the same year? Us in 08? we made the prelim yes, but were very lucky to make it. we made it because essendon in rd 22 gave up at 3/4 time and let us into the top 4, if it wasnt for that i believe we would of been knocked out by the pies the following week. 04 we won it...made the prelim, but lost.
people may think the doggies are top stuff because they won it, but it means bugger all, and i think the bookies know that. i can guarantee you we will get further than the dogs this year, people think it will be a saints dogs GF, what it could be...could also be a Tigers Dees GF... depends how much we want it.
its anyones game

[Beno88]

We started as flag favourite because we have won 31 of our last 38 games.

We are still flag favourites because more money has been put St.Kilda to win the 2010 premiership than any other club.

[st_Trav_ofWA]

why are we still flag favorites well firstly the hunger is still there from last years g/f loss.... secondly we have basically the same 22 as last yer ecxept Ball returning .... thirdly we are well coached ... forthly we showed last year how dominant we can be ...

why the dogs are third on the odds .... first they have a muppet for a coach ..... second Aka, Hall, Johno are all at the end of thier game and as we saw painfully with big Fraser when the end comes it comes really really fast !! .... and thirdly the dogs didnt beat geelong at all last year nor St Kilda (pre season doesnt count look at the tiges beating geelong) so in the REAL thing the bulldogs havent proven to anyone they can beat last years g/f

[GrumpyOne]

No, we are not flag favourites....... and that is not such a bad thing. A little less pressure is good.

I'm happy with it.

[degruch]

No, we are not flag favourites...

Yes, we are.

[spert]

Well, Geelong have won a couple and now it's our turn, so that's why we're favorites.

[saintlee]

its all media talk.
they won the NAB, well done. history of that shows the team does very poorly. Carlton? Wizzard cup, spoon in the same year? Us in 08? we made the prelim yes, but were very lucky to make it. we made it because essendon in rd 22 gave up at 3/4 time and let us into the top 4, if it wasnt for that i believe we would of been knocked out by the pies the following week. 04 we won it...made the prelim, but lost.
people may think the doggies are top stuff because they won it, but it means bugger all, and i think the bookies know that. i can guarantee you we will get further than the dogs this year, people think it will be a saints dogs GF, what it could be...could also be a Tigers Dees GF... depends how much we want it.
its anyones game

What about Geelong last year? Or the Bombers in 2000? They both went on to win the premiership....in fact, I think Carlton are really the odd man out on this...usually teams that win the preseason go on to do reasonably well in the season proper...

[plugger66]

We are favourites because more money is on us to win the flag and more people even in the media think we will win the flag. the Dogs are favourite for one week and then everyone forgets who won the GF of the practice matches.

[Life Long Saint]

What about Geelong last year? Or the Bombers in 2000? They both went on to win the premiership....in fact, I think Carlton are really the odd man out on this...usually teams that win the preseason go on to do reasonably well in the season proper...

Not sure that Carlton are the "odd man out" here at all...

Since 1997 (the first season with all 16 teams) quite a few pre-season winners have failed to make the finals...Most notably Geelong in 2006.

Of the 13 cups, 5 teams have missed on the finals...Adelaide in 2003 and St Kilda in 2008 hardly had stellar years. Only North Melbourne (98), Essendon (2000) and Geelong (09) have played in the Grand Final that year.

1997 - Carlton - 11th
1998 - North Melbourne - 2nd
1999 - Hawthorn - 9th
2000 - Essendon - 1st
2001 - Port Adelaide - 3rd
2002 - Port Adelaide - 3rd
2003 - Adelaide - 6th
2004 - St Kilda - 3rd
2005 - Carlton - 16th
2006 - Geelong - 10th
2007 - Carlton - 15th
2008 - St Kilda - 4th
2009 - Geelong - 1st

The stats for the runners-up are not so flash. Only Brisbane in 2001 have lost the pre-season GF and won the flag. West Coast came close in 2005 being runners up in both the Pre-season and premiership cup.

Let's hope we can "do a Brisbane" this year.

[saintlee]

What about Geelong last year? Or the Bombers in 2000? They both went on to win the premiership....in fact, I think Carlton are really the odd man out on this...usually teams that win the preseason go on to do reasonably well in the season proper...

Not sure that Carlton are the "odd man out" here at all...

Since 1997 (the first season with all 16 teams) quite a few pre-season winners have failed to make the finals...Most notably Geelong in 2006.

Of the 13 cups, 5 teams have missed on the finals...Adelaide in 2003 and St Kilda in 2008 hardly had stellar years. Only North Melbourne (98), Essendon (2000) and Geelong (09) have played in the Grand Final that year.

1997 - Carlton - 11th
1998 - North Melbourne - 2nd
1999 - Hawthorn - 9th
2000 - Essendon - 1st
2001 - Port Adelaide - 3rd
2002 - Port Adelaide - 3rd
2003 - Adelaide - 6th
2004 - St Kilda - 3rd
2005 - Carlton - 16th
2006 - Geelong - 10th
2007 - Carlton - 15th
2008 - St Kilda - 4th
2009 - Geelong - 1st

The stats for the runners-up are not so flash. Only Brisbane in 2001 have lost the pre-season GF and won the flag. West Coast came close in 2005 being runners up in both the Pre-season and premiership cup.

Let's hope we can "do a Brisbane" this year.

Interesting stats, I was only going off memory, but I still think Carlton are the odd man out in terms of just how badly they went following the preseason GF win....as I said, most have done reasonably well....and I definitely consider a top 4 finish reasonably well, which would give you 7 out of 13...

[ace]

You don't have to be good to be a favourite, you only have to be more likely to win than those that surround you to become a favourite.

[saintsRrising]

Why is this?

The majority of the football community have declared 2010 to be the 'year of the Dogs' and apparently the betting money for the Dogs hasn't stopped rolling in, so why are we still favourites and they're third in flag favouritism?

Yes but quality of quantity...just because a few journos jump on board does not make anything so.

All that has happened so far is we have had the NAB practice competition which history shows is no useful yardstick of anything.

Take the saints..by and large it was our fringe that impressed which is not surprising as it is they that need to impress to squeeze into the 22.

However I have faith that come Round 1 that Kosi, Ray etc will resume their 2009 form.

So until some real judges get some proper data to suggest otherwise, they are sticking with the Saints.

[Longwayfromhome]

Wish in one hand and s*** in the other. What gets full first. Yes, you're right, the s***.
Why are we flag favorites? I'm not sure.
Yes we won22 of 25 games last year, but that was last year. We won 3 out of our last 6 games. 50% people.
We beat Collingwood by a point. the Sydney Swans by a point, a piss week Freemantle by twelve goals and lost to the Bulldogs by 40 points when it counted. Only the Nab cup, but games of footy none the less.
Our Captain is the only forward looking to go forward and our ruck stocks are more than 'over the hill".
Our back line is showing signs of 'what will happen if so and so doesn't come up' and the media keeps referring to the TWIN TOWERS which is no more than an insult to our captain, because he is so far ahead of the named full forward in our team that it's becoming embarrassing. One tower and a housing commission unit maybe.
Install us as favorites at your own risk. I won't be backing the boys until they show me a little more than nostalgia.

[bozza1980]

Wish in one hand and s*** in the other. What gets full first. Yes, you're right, the s***.
Why are we flag favorites? I'm not sure.
Yes we won22 of 25 games last year, but that was last year. We won 3 out of our last 6 games. 50% people.
We beat Collingwood by a point. the Sydney Swans by a point, a piss week Freemantle by twelve goals and lost to the Bulldogs by 40 points when it counted. Only the Nab cup, but games of footy none the less.
Our Captain is the only forward looking to go forward and our ruck stocks are more than 'over the hill".
Our back line is showing signs of 'what will happen if so and so doesn't come up' and the media keeps referring to the TWIN TOWERS which is no more than an insult to our captain, because he is so far ahead of the named full forward in our team that it's becoming embarrassing. One tower and a housing commission unit maybe.
Install us as favorites at your own risk. I won't be backing the boys until they show me a little more than nostalgia.

Do you still think Geelong are a contender to win the premiership?

If you rate practise game form as highly as you do, you would have to say they will be useless this year.

For crying out loud, this team lost 3 games last year by a combined total of 19 points and you care about what really equates to exposed contested training drills??

That housing commision unit kicked 50 goals last year, gee he's hopeless.

The rest of the competition must have been horrificially bad last year if we are half as bad as people on this forum seem to believe we are.

We have made the finals 5 out of the last 6 years, finished top 4, 4 of those years and were the best team last season and lost the premiership in a toss of a coin Grand Final classic.

Yep, that means nothing because we lost one pre season game and didn't look good winning a couple of others.

[degruch]

Wish in one hand and s*** in the other. What gets full first. Yes, you're right, the s***.
Why are we flag favorites? I'm not sure.
Yes we won22 of 25 games last year, but that was last year. We won 3 out of our last 6 games. 50% people.
We beat Collingwood by a point. the Sydney Swans by a point, a piss week Freemantle by twelve goals and lost to the Bulldogs by 40 points when it counted. Only the Nab cup, but games of footy none the less.
Our Captain is the only forward looking to go forward and our ruck stocks are more than 'over the hill".
Our back line is showing signs of 'what will happen if so and so doesn't come up' and the media keeps referring to the TWIN TOWERS which is no more than an insult to our captain, because he is so far ahead of the named full forward in our team that it's becoming embarrassing. One tower and a housing commission unit maybe.
Install us as favorites at your own risk. I won't be backing the boys until they show me a little more than nostalgia.

Do you still think Geelong are a contender to win the premiership?

If you rate practise game form as highly as you do, you would have to say they will be useless this year.

For crying out loud, this team lost 3 games last year by a combined total of 19 points and you care about what really equates to exposed contested training drills??

That housing commision unit kicked 50 goals last year, gee he's hopeless.

The rest of the competition must have been horrificially bad last year if we are half as bad as people on this forum seem to believe we are.

We have made the finals 5 out of the last 6 years, finished top 4, 4 of those years and were the best team last season and lost the premiership in a toss of a coin Grand Final classic.

Yep, that means nothing because we lost one pre season game and didn't look good winning a couple of others.

No Bozza, we're all in noddy land...you, me, the punters, the bookies, everyone.

[linz]

We haven't even played a game and we're DOOMED already

[SainterK]

Wow, that is some low expectation right there, is it a defence mechanism to avoid getting hurt?

Also just curious Longway, after our preseason last year, where did you think we would finish?

[Moccha]

Let the Bulldogs bask in the glory. The NooB cup will be a memory come finals time.

[AnythingsPossibleSaints]

That housing commision unit kicked 50 goals last year, gee he's hopeless.

Only 3 goals in the 3 finals, though and had 4 very ordinary games in the NAB Cup. So his most recent form is very poor. At the moment McEvoy may even be a better option at FF. Kosi needs to lift big-time.

[Milan Faletic]

To answer the original post question-we have won 25 of our last 29 games, lost the GF effective by a goal. Made the NAB Cup GF which is a better start to the season than last year. Barry is one hit or groin injury from ruining WB year. Geelong have some possibly unwarranted question marks about motivation and an ageing list. Adelaide is our biggest worry IMHO.

[AnythingsPossibleSaints]

Perhaps some people recognise that both the Dog's coach and reject forward are rather suspect under pressure. Some people are also aware that any result in the pre-season means next to nothing.

As opposed to us under pressure in the GF last year? Did you not see our blokes missing goals from as close as the top of the goalsquare?
And Barry Hall is hardly a "reject" and he's won more premierships than we have in the last 40 years. I also seem to recall him doing very well for us in the '97 GF, at a young age.

As for the main post, I've also been wondering why we're still the shortest odds in the betting.
Getting Andrew Lovett was an initial major reason for us being installed favourites, but now that's not happening and it's been a major distraction for Ross, especially.
Talk is that the Doggies have had a brilliant, drama free pre-season, which culminated in a smashing win over us. Most times when someone does well they say it's because they had a great pre-season, so what will happen to them when their whole team pretty much has?
They were clearly better last year than the year before (when they also made the Prelim) and with guys like Cooney, Griffen and Higgins likely to have even better year's this year, I'd have expected them to have been better again this year, and that was before they got Hall. Now they've got Hall and they look at least 3 goals better for it. We'll have to be outstanding to win it, especially since we only managed about 10 goals per game in the finals last year.
In fact I wouldn't mind if the WB end up flag favourites throughout the season, as they might find that hard to deal with. The more hype that is on them, the less likely I reckon they'll be to win it.