No need to worry, Emma.

[White Winmar]

I read with interest that Emma Quayle fears for the saints when they "Begin to shed players", in a couple of years time. She bases this fear on the fact that the saints haven't got much up and coming young talent, and she appears particularly concerned about this year's selections. Fear not Emma, because if you really did your homework, and you knew anything about the work, planning and forecasting that our football club's professional personnel put into the process, you might have a different view. I also find it laughable that she is considered a "draft expert", because she's written about it over the past few years. My spies at The Age told me she got the gig because no one else wanted it and they had to find something for her, as she was nowhere near the class of the other sports and feature writers.

The comment about John Peake working all year round, only to be able to call out a couple of names is a good example of ignorant and sloppy reporting. JP is heavily involved in all manner of list management issues and liaises with the Matt Drain and the rest of the football department. He casts his eye and does his homework on all potential recruits, be they recycled or new. Paul Collins and John Beveridge assist him in this. As a result, I believe we have one of the most thorough and professional recruiting set ups in the competition. You can be assured that Jesse Smith was the best available for our needs at pick 60.

EQ also ignores the fact that we have been stockpiling some decent young talent over the past three years. Do the names Armitage, McEvoy, Steven, Heyne, Stanley and Lynch ring a bell Emma? They should, seeing as you are the so-called "draft" expert. Throw in Cahill, A.Smith, Gaernter, McGrath and Simpkin, not forgetting our other NSW scholarship boys (Murphy and Duncan in particular) and Irish rookies and the pool starts to look a bit deeper. We're also going to take another batch of kids in the upcoming rookie draft and there could be some hidden gems amongst that lot when you consider who missed out.

The other thing that our expert EQ seems to miss, is that the obsession with youth at the draft is coming to an end. The conventional thinking over the past 15 years or so is that you can only build strong lists and premierships by drafting a group of talented kids and bringing them through over a number of years. Early draft picks are no guarantee of success. Otherwise Richmond and Fremantle would be challenging for, and winning premierships by now. Instead they are trapped in an endless "cycle of rebuilding", drafting kids and not addressing other fundamental flaws in their lists.

What our list managers have achieved in just a few years is extraordinary. The list has great depth, there will again be fierce competition for places in the side, and our core group is largely in the 22-28 year range, perfect for a good 3-4 year tilt at a premiership. The aim of the list managers is to keep that "profile" of the list intact. That is they will continue to recruit players who will keep us in that mode, rather than just drafting "kids" for the sake of it.

Furthermore the obsession with youth and early picks has another flaw. While it's good to have first "dibs" at the best young players in the land, more recruiters (especially ours) are now realising that there are rich veins of untapped potential in the state and suburban leagues. As the market for kids coming through the drafts gets more competitive and will only get more so with GC amd GWS coming in, canny recruiters are already looking at the 20-23 year age range, where potential recruits have mature bodies, stronger minds and more experience.

In any event, it's not so much what number in the draft a recruit gets picked up, it's what you do with them when they join your club. Just look at the way Geelong, Adelaide and Sydney have remained competitive without "bottoming out". We also now have a developmental structure and system that will get the best out of our recruits. Just look at some of our recent successes in Clinton Jones, Zac Dawson and Farren Ray. All vastly improved by their time at Moorabbin.

So Emma, no need to panic about the saints. By introducing 8 (yes 8) new players onto the list this year , we are ensuring turnover keeps things fresh and on the improve. Everyone of the 8 was selected to fulfill a specific purpose on the list, now and well into the future. They weren't picked just because the conventional thinking says you should pick kids. FWIW, I think Michael Voss has also realised this and gone for experience and demonstrated form in favour of youth. I think this will be the new trend.

[Verdun66]

Excellent post. Superb. Low draft picks don't always work out! A mixture which includes mature players gives a better chance of success.

But, shhhh, everyone else will start doing it!

[Legendary]

Terrific post, absolutely spot on in every way, really thorough analysis.

[True Blue Sainter]

You are a wise man, my friend. Well articulated points. I think EQ's mention of us was a bit naive, and based mainly on skimping over the past few season's recruiting, and not studying our list in enough depth. Again, great post.

[santazzi]

Thank you so much for taking the time to articulte the reality of our club.

You have crystalised and put it in precise arguements what Ihave been feeling strongly .........

[saintsRrising]

Emma has confused drafting young talent with List Management.

They are not one and the same.

Also has I mentioned in the original thread her statement that Peake could only choose 2 kids is wildly wrong as well.

When you are at the bottom, the name of the game is to get extra picks if you can and assemble a group of young guys that can go forward and mature together.

That is not where the Saints are at.

When you finish higher you have to draft smarter as you don;t have eraly picks..and you have to actively manage your list to optimise your structure and balance. That is where the Saints are at.

[shmic_s]

great read. i see that in the way the list has been evolving also. extremely happy with lyon, drain and team.

[Con Gorozidis]

good call. obsession with TAC cup youth is over-blown.

I also noticed the Dogs are also looking outside the TAC comp now with their pics - a kid from sth aussie and older guy from the NT.

im guessing the dogs are a bit disappointed with the progress of their high TAC pics Grant and Everitt....

[elphie]

....a knowledgeable and thoughtful response from it seems someone inside the club. as ROSSIE stated only time will tell whether in hindsight we went the right way with this admitted recycled player focus this year.
i am personally pleased to consolidate our highly competitive tilt at the premiership with this depth but realistically feel the only depth that will let us raise the cup in sept. will still be our internal youth.
the injection and physical strength development of our 2009 second-rung developing youth (STEVEN, ARMO, MCEVOY, GEARY) will be the crux of our success. and it must come to fruition within the period that our top-tier players are still at peak. i mean ROOEY, LENNY AND FISH to name a few.
realistically, that would how many years left? certainly not as exorbitant as the 3-5 been mentioned in my book!

[bozza1980]

Great post, a thought out and well articulated rebuttal to a very short minded and not well thought out prediction.

That said, the press have been claiming our window is closing for 4 years now, in fact at the end of 2006 and again at the end of 2007 our window was declared shut.

It really does my head in when a journalist (who is paid to know the ins and outs of the football world) spend such little time investigating the actual facts before making predictions.

[Teflon]

Its posts like that which is why I come here....sure Ive got to trawl through 3,000 cr@p Dodgy posts to get one....but its worth the wait.

Can't help but feel its a post thats reasonably close to the action also....

[Batnoe]

I agree


i read her thing the other day and i was like 'pfft, you have no idea emma' i wanted to write what you did above but my grammar and wording isnt as good so it is as though you have taken words straight out of my mouth

well done

[White Winmar]

Yes it's good to know that the St.Kilda Football Club is at last setting trends and not simply following, both on and off the field. Witness the way most clubs were mimicking our on field style and game plan by the end of last season. Unfortunately, as Verdun mentioned, "SSh, everyone will start doing it". The good part is we're already two and three steps ahead. All we need now is that damned, elusive premiership. Last year was just about the perfect season in every sense, bar the obvious at the end.

[Quixote]

Good post fella! AGREE whole heartedly with your analysis of the 'system' of drafting and list management, and have thought the same for a while.

In EQ's defence, however, a) it was but a small comment in a larger story, without space to qualify her stance, and b) anyone who has read The Draft or some of her longer articles will confirm, she can write.

[saint66au]

Dissapointing effort from Emma, shes normally better than that. No-one would question the time and effort sh puts into researching under-age players, but her summation of us just smacked of "Oh they only picked one TAC kid, hell what am I gonna write about them?"

Lets not underestimate the influence a properly resourced recruitment dept can have too. John Beveridge in on the record saying that in the RB era, every penny was scrutinised and there was no money for player scouts or travel for research. Where other Clubs were flying interstate every weekend in chartered planes to watch a kid play out in the sticks somewhere, JB was in his car, restricted to where he could get to in a days driving.

I get the impression FF have thrown some badly needed cash at our recruiting staff.

Theres no magic answer in recruitment. For every Joel Selwood theres a Jarrod Oakley-Nicholls. For every Sam Fisher theres a Phil Raymond....but good staff, resources and time can at least give you the best shot at getting it right. Look back to 2003-04. Carlton and Richmond were in a similar place. Carlton have got it right, Richmond have buggered it up

Oh....great OP!!!

[BAM! (shhhh)]

...

EQ also ignores the fact that we have been stockpiling some decent young talent over the past three years. Do the names Armitage, McEvoy, Steven, Heyne, Stanley and Lynch ring a bell Emma? They should, seeing as you are the so-called "draft" expert. Throw in Cahill, A.Smith, Gaernter, McGrath and Simpkin, not forgetting our other NSW scholarship boys (Murphy and Duncan in particular) and Irish rookies and the pool starts to look a bit deeper. We're also going to take another batch of kids in the upcoming rookie draft and there could be some hidden gems amongst that lot when you consider who missed out.

The other thing that our expert EQ seems to miss, is that the obsession with youth at the draft is coming to an end. The conventional thinking over the past 15 years or so is that you can only build strong lists and premierships by drafting a group of talented kids and bringing them through over a number of years. Early draft picks are no guarantee of success. Otherwise Richmond and Fremantle would be challenging for, and winning premierships by now. Instead they are trapped in an endless "cycle of rebuilding", drafting kids and not addressing other fundamental flaws in their lists.
...

I'm sure the quoted post sits well with many as a rebuttal of perceived negative press. That one liner about players moving on in a couple of years has touched a bit of a raw spot perhaps?

On the first, throwing out the names Armitage, McEvoy, Steven, Heyne, Stanley and Lynch is pretty much garbage when the players Quayle was referring to moving on are Reiwoldt (27... hope there's more than a couple of years left, but his knees are a worry), Koschitzke (likely more time than Roo, but nowhere near the quality), Hayes (29?), Blake (29?), King and Gardiner... that's 1/4 of our 22, 4 of who can list AA on their resume's. I'm as high on McEvoy as the next guy, but there are still plenty of hurdles, and the rest have proven nothing. Including Heyne and Stanley on any "blue chip" list is actually concerning.

On the bright side, Geary wasn't included on your list and looks the goods. whether he's replace Hayes level is a different matter.

What Quayle is talking about is that while recycled players have less downside, they either have big knocks (ala Smith - ankles) or don't have the upside.

As to the second, I only hope the "obsession with youth" doesn't end any time soon. As far as I can see, there are 3 clubs adequately valuing mature players - Sydney (won them a flag), ourselves, and Brisbane's joined the game. It's where the bargains are, so I have no trouble with what we're doing - smart in my books.

I believe Emma's point however was that to really build from youth, it takes quantity - some are going to start high and miss, some are going to develop better... and you'll never retain all of it. We've just seen two top ten picks from 2001 - a fantastic draft - and a 2nd from the same leave the club (X, Goose, Ball). If we were to go back 5 (or more) years, and compare where those 3 were at, they'd all have been significantly ahead of any of our so called "stockpile".

Now, I don't believe we're in a bad place. I don't think Emma Quayle really believes we're in a bad place. But insofar as highlighting a risk, she's not incorrect.

[aussiejones]

"Theres no magic answer in recruitment. For every Joel Selwood theres a Jarrod Oakley-Nicholls. For every Sam Fisher theres a Phil Raymond....but good staff, resources and time can at least give you the best shot at getting it right."

Yes

The question is from the stockpile decisions must be made ..who and when to drop non performers so we dont stagnate in our stockpile .

I like where we are at ....given the draft opportunities we had.

[JABBER]

A very good post Im Not worried about two kids this year the club said last years pool was stronger. I can see T Lynch N Heyne P Cahill Rhys Stanley and A Smith play a lot of football in the next few years.(whether with us or not). Is Andrew Lovett worth pick 16 I think he is Nicholas Winmar will be a bargain at .32 and Jesse Smith is a very classy act at pick 60 might be the selection of the draft. A Pattison and W Johnson are better than their number in the draft. And I forgot Brett Peake who is a better player than a third round pick.

I really do beleive we have built a very strong list for many years to come and with the hurt of the grand final will make the players more ralaxed on grand final day and the end result will come.

[saintsRrising]

I don't think Emma Quayle really believes we're in a bad place. But insofar as highlighting a risk, she's not incorrect.

Emma is normally thorough.

This article was lightweight and sloppy and not up to her normal standard.
Factually she is incorrect too as she basically stated that Peake would only get choose 2 kids, whereas it will be 4 or 5.

I must admit that I have come around on recruiting "recyclables". After several years of GT disasters I was very wary of it and had a stong kid-preference.


I am still of the belief that generally that a club should keep it's No 1 pick as this is the highest % chance of obtaining a future new star. though the trouble with finishing high is that you do not get low first round picks either. so that path to future stars is denied us. Interesting to not that the Cat's grabbed Selwood when they slipped and gaineda No. 7 selection. without that No. 7 they may well have not as been as successful.

After the first round future stas may well almost equally come from pick 50 or pick 30...

So the Lovett deal is a bit of a gamble..but it was late pick at 16 in a draft where that pick starts to get weak.


With later picks the AFL average career is I think 3 years. So far the StKilda 'recyclables" under Lyon look like on average exceeding that.

So that to me leaves the main issue as being as porential loss of future stars.

Offsetting that is the enanced ability to pick players for specific team needs and roles and so get an extra boost in team performance...that is if you can select the right players. So far Lyon and Drain and now with Peake seem to have the ability to get their selections right. Recognising that just as with kids that no all will work out.

So far so good though. The returns have been good.

And yes we have not produced a new Roo yet..BUT equally the club underLyon has not had No 1 picks either!!!!

[terry smith rules]

As to the second, I only hope the "obsession with youth" doesn't end any time soon. As far as I can see, there are 3 clubs adequately valuing mature players - Sydney (won them a flag), ourselves, and Brisbane's joined the game. It's where the bargains are, so I have no trouble with what we're doing - smart in my books.

excellent post Bam

I would like to add with the swans, that yes when their window was open they topped up with older players. However now they are in for a world of pain.

Many retirements, aging lists and the youngsters coming through (coule of exceptions) are not that good.

There is a fine line between the current needs and the future requirements.

fqf

[Teflon]

As to the second, I only hope the "obsession with youth" doesn't end any time soon. As far as I can see, there are 3 clubs adequately valuing mature players - Sydney (won them a flag), ourselves, and Brisbane's joined the game. It's where the bargains are, so I have no trouble with what we're doing - smart in my books.

excellent post Bam

I would like to add with the swans, that yes when their window was open they topped up with older players. However now they are in for a world of pain.

Many retirements, aging lists and the youngsters coming through (coule of exceptions) are not that good.

There is a fine line between the current needs and the future requirements.

fqf

Swans now in a world of pain but have a flag to show for it - whats the point if you arent recruiting for that?

[Dr Spaceman]

As to the second, I only hope the "obsession with youth" doesn't end any time soon. As far as I can see, there are 3 clubs adequately valuing mature players - Sydney (won them a flag), ourselves, and Brisbane's joined the game. It's where the bargains are, so I have no trouble with what we're doing - smart in my books.

excellent post Bam

I would like to add with the swans, that yes when their window was open they topped up with older players. However now they are in for a world of pain.

Many retirements, aging lists and the youngsters coming through (coule of exceptions) are not that good.

There is a fine line between the current needs and the future requirements.

fqf

Swans now in a world of pain but have a flag to show for it - whats the point if you arent recruiting for that?

That’s right. Let’s not worry about multiple premierships and dynasties until we’ve got this next flag. Digging deep into a shallow draft is just likely to result in a lot of list clogging in a couple of years time. The time is now!

With Riewoldt we’ve got a once in a generation superstar. Even if he plays on for another five of six years, history shows that his type of player is rarely as effective once they reach 30 years of age. I’m sure many, if not most, would accept a trip to the cellar in a few years time as long as we’ve got that 2nd cup to admire.

[White Winmar]

No BAM!, there's no sensitivity to her criticism. Just rebuttal. There's no raw nerve there because I believe deeper examination of the facts show she is mistaken. I think your arguments are sound, with one exception. That is to describe as "garbage" the argument of throwing up the names of McEvoy, Steven, Armitage, et. al. as evidence of a lack of quality talent coming on is a bit rich.

McEvoy and Armitage are both first round picks who have shown enough to suggest they will be very good senior footballers, if not elite. Steven was a "bottom age" player when he was selected, meaning he could've played U/18's at the Falcons for another year. He was regarded as a certain first rounder/top ten in the following draft, but the club snapped him up a year early. He too should become a very good player. The other one of that group that excites me is Stanley. He unexpectedly slipped through to the 40's with Heyne, and on the available evidence on his form at Sandy this year, and the fact he's a tall who is still developing, I think we have one of the most exciting young talents in the competition.

As for replacing the existing crop when it is "shed", the only truly irreplaceable player on our list is Nick Riewoldt. He is a freak, a once in a generation player. As for the rest we have some silk in the form of Dal Santo (pick 13 in his draft), with others I would categorise as "elite" being Hayes (11? correct me if I'm wrong), Goddard (1) , Fisher (55) and Montagna (37). Gilbert at pick 33 should join this group shortly. I think throwing Blake and Baker as being amongst the most difficult to replace is also overvaluing them. Good players, not great, and both will be under plenty of pressure for their spots this year.

In the end my point is that recruitment focus has been too narrow in the past, with many of the "gems" coming from left field. 3 years ago no one would've seen Montagna as elite, nor Sam Fisher when he first arrived. Gilbert struggled early on as well, while I needn't tell you the baggings Clinton Jones copped in his first two years. He is now considered by Mike Sheahan as a top 50 player and a vital cog in our team. Zac Dawson and Farren Ray are others whose selection raised eyebrows at first. Look at them now. It's way too early to write off any of the group I "threw up". Chances are some will fail and some will succeed. Based on the results of the developmental coaching of the past three years, I think it's safe to say that more more members of the group I "threw up" will succeed than fail. Their draft positions, and more importantly their profiles are very similar to those they will eventually replace. That's no accident, but a result of careful planning, plenty of homework and a willingness to go outside the norms of convention. Bring on the next three years, I can't wait!

[vacuous space]

My spies at The Age told me she got the gig because no one else wanted it and they had to find something for her, as she was nowhere near the class of the other sports and feature writers.

Talk about petty. Emma Quayle writes something vaguely unflattering about the Saints, so you attack her. Like I said in the other thread, she didn't even say that we were doomed. She said she was worried, and I think there's grounds for that. Now we have two threads and countless words poking holes in a single paragraph.

If you actually look at other teams lists, rather than just criticising Quayle for not looking at ours, we have less senior players 21 or younger than any other club. It's not even close. We have 12, the next fewest is three teams on 16. Geelong has 19. Melbourne has 23. If you're talking quality, we have three top-20 picks taken in the last five years. We have two more taken in the next 20 and two more taken in the ten after that. Outside the top-50, elite talent is rare.

The bulk of our list is between 23 and 27. Maybe those guys can hang on for long enough to get some more quality kids in. Maybe we'll have a better success rate with our kids than other teams. We can be optimistic, but there's no real reason that Quayle should share our optimism. If she looks at our list, she'll find fewer kids taken later in drafts with less senior experience than at other clubs.

There's nothing wrong with her opinion except, maybe, that Drain was 'allowed' to take two kids at the ND. Even if, as a junior writer, she was handed a job that no one else wanted, she's done a heck of a job with it.

[White Winmar]

She's hardly a junior writer, been around for ages. One or two good articles do not a writer make. I think in general she's sloppy and regurgitates a lot of information that is widely known already. I find her analysis shallow, or entirely absent. Writing "puff pieces" about teenage footballers hardly qualifies her as excellent at her craft. Matt Burgan does a far better job of analysing the draft and making predictions. He's been doing it longer and much better than EQ. Then again it's all a matter of opinion. For mine, she's very average at best. Anyhow, I don't want this to degenerate into a p**sing contest about Emma Quayle. The robust discussion about our list, its current and future states is what this was meant to be about.