One thing that I am curious about but don't have the emotional strength to do yet is to watch the grand final and plot out where our misses came from, who missed them and times for those forwards during the game.
During the second half of the year our goal scoring drifted off, we started missing goals that earlier in the season we would have made. This was critical in the grand final.
So my theory is, does our "lion cage" game plan of hard running forwards lead to tired players? We work up very high and run hard as a forward pack with lots of tackles and pressur being put on. This worked early because we played bd teams who turned the ball over in areas where kicking goals was very easy. We also killed off games early through scoreboard pressure and thus were not needed to kick the killer goals.
Have we become less flexible, could mini/milne/schneider play back and we move a fresher player into the goal scoring role later in games? Do we need the ability to rest roo deep and work some talls onto the half forward line. An extra mdium tall is an obvious answer to this but could using defenders/midfielders as forwards work to keep the forward line fresh. So that when we have shots on goals they are not leg tired?
Recruiting speed to use the ball in space will help us get better shos at goal but does our forward line need a revamp. I always said, get us to be scores level with 5 to go and I would back to team to win it but that did not happen on grand final day.....
Forwardline, pressure, flexibility and goal scoring
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I think our goal kicking has been a problem for quite a while. We rely on Roo & Koz way to much. Our midfielders and rucks should kick more goals. We seemed to have overcome that in the first half of the year but we seemed to lapse back. We became even more reliant on Roo when Koz injured his hand and didn't play as well for the remainder of the season. As for GF day, the weather was atrocious, was always going to be hard kicking goals. Just a shame we couldn't have capitalised more on the opportunities we had.
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aussiejones
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borderbarry
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saintnick12
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We were at least two goal (and often more) down early on in all of the last six games - against Ess, NMelb, Melb, Collingwood, WB and Geelong. We were chasing in every game. Some games we got there and others we did not. But we had trouble scoring, partitcularly early in every one of those games. The warning signs were there. Earlier in the season ..the opposite was true ...we were killing off games early on by great first halves. Having said that, we could have been several goals in front at half time in the GF which may well have led to a different result.
By the way, I have watched most of the GF. I am a glutton for punishment and forced myself to do it. I wanted to see what went wrong. Nothing more complicated than simple skill errors at crucial moments. As has been said here many times....Schinder, Milne, Dempster, McQualter all missed sitters...some more than one. Schnider in particular will be very dissappointed. Could have won the norm smith if he finished well on the day. Yes Nick had issues and Kosi and Milne didn't do much - but the talls brought the ball to the smalls and the opportunities were well and truely there to win the game and we didn't...pure and simple. At least the mid sized forward we are all wanting would give us another alternative. I too would like to see BJ rotate through this position if we can afford it elsewhere.
By the way, I have watched most of the GF. I am a glutton for punishment and forced myself to do it. I wanted to see what went wrong. Nothing more complicated than simple skill errors at crucial moments. As has been said here many times....Schinder, Milne, Dempster, McQualter all missed sitters...some more than one. Schnider in particular will be very dissappointed. Could have won the norm smith if he finished well on the day. Yes Nick had issues and Kosi and Milne didn't do much - but the talls brought the ball to the smalls and the opportunities were well and truely there to win the game and we didn't...pure and simple. At least the mid sized forward we are all wanting would give us another alternative. I too would like to see BJ rotate through this position if we can afford it elsewhere.
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samoht
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The GF showed we lacked good strong medium sized forwards.
If you watch the last quarter when the Cats started to take control you'll see ..
Our talls may have brought the ball to the ground.. but
Our 3 small forwards(milne, Mcqualter ,schneider) wilted under tackling pressure - we have too many small forwards who weren't physically up to it.
I reckon we need to lose 2 of our smalls, replace them with slightly bigger, stronger medium sized players.
Whereas..
Ablett and Chapman on the other hand had the body strength to deal with the tackles, just arrogantly brush past our tacklers , barge through, hold their balance with sheer strength and do the damage.
If you watch the last quarter when the Cats started to take control you'll see ..
Our talls may have brought the ball to the ground.. but
Our 3 small forwards(milne, Mcqualter ,schneider) wilted under tackling pressure - we have too many small forwards who weren't physically up to it.
I reckon we need to lose 2 of our smalls, replace them with slightly bigger, stronger medium sized players.
Whereas..
Ablett and Chapman on the other hand had the body strength to deal with the tackles, just arrogantly brush past our tacklers , barge through, hold their balance with sheer strength and do the damage.
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ThePunter
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Let's see if there was any noticeable trend as the season wore on.
Goals kicked per game by our top four goal kickers v Goals kicked per game by other players
Round 1 v Sydney (12 goals)
Top four: 5 (Milne 3, Koschitzke 2, Riewoldt & Schneider 0)
Others: 7 (Dal Santo 2, Gardiner 2, Goddard, Gram, McQualter)
Top four %: 41.67%
Round 2 v Adelaide (15 goals)
Top four: 9 (Koschitzke 4, Riewoldt & Schneider 2, Milne 1)
Others: 6 (Gardiner, Geary, Goddard, King, Montagna, Ray)
Top four %: 60.00%
Round 3 v West Coast (25 goals)
Top four: 10 (Koschitzke & Milne 4, Riewoldt & Schneider 1)
Others: 15 (Goddard 4, Gardiner 2, Dal Santo, Dawson, Geary, Gram, Hayes, Jones, King, McQualter, Montagna)
Top four %: 40.00%
Round 4 v Fremantle (17 goals)
Top four: 6 (Riewoldt 5, Milne 1. Koschitzke & Schneider 0)
Others: 11 (Jones 3, Dal Santo 2, Gardiner, Geary, Goddard, Gwilt, McQualter, Montagna)
Top four %: 35.29%
Round 5 v Port Adelaide (15 goals)
Top four: 9 (Riewoldt 4, Milne 3, Schneider 2, Koschitzke DNP)
Others: 6 (Ball, Eddy, Geary, Gwilt, Hayes, McQualter)
Top four %: 60.00%
Round 6 v Western Bulldogs (14 goals)
Top four: 8 (Riewoldt 4, Schneider 3, Koschitzke 1, Milne 0)
Others: 6 (Dal Santo, Gardiner, Goddard, Gram, Gwilt, McQualter)
Top four %: 57.14%
Round 7 v Collingwood (20 goals)
Top four: 15 (Riewoldt & Schneider 5, Milne 4, Koschitzke 1)
Others: 5 (McQualter 2, Goddard, Gram, Jones)
Top four %: 75.00%
Round 8 v Essendon (13 goals)
Top four: 8 (Koschitzke 4, Riewoldt 3, Milne 1, Schneider 0)
Others: 5 (Ball, Geary, Gram, Hayes, McQualter)
Top four %: 61.54%
Round 9 v Brisbane (14 goals)
Top four: 11 (Koschitzke & Riewoldt 4, Milne 3, Schneider 0)
Others: 3 (Montagna 2, Gardiner)
Top four %: 78.57%
Round 10 v Melbourne (11 goals)
Top four: 5 (Riewoldt 4, Koschitzke 1, Schneider 0, Milne DNP)
Others: 6 (Goddard 2, Geary, Gwilt, McQualter, Ray)
Top four %: 45.45%
Round 11 v North Melbourne (15 goals)
Top four: 11 (Koschitzke 6, Riewoldt 3, Schneider 2, Milne DNP)
Others: 4 (Dal Santo, Gram, Gwilt, Jones)
Top four %: 73.33%
Round 12 v Carlton (16 goals)
Top four: 9 (Riewoldt 5, Schndeider 2, Koschitzke & Milne 1)
Others: 7 (Gram 2, Dal Santo, Dawson, Goddard, McQualter, Montagna)
Top four %: 56.25%
Round 13 v Richmond (13 goals)
Top four: 8 (Koschitzke 5, Riewoldt 2, Schneider 1, Milne 0)
Others: 5 (Ball, Dal Santo, Geary, Goddard, McQualter)
Top four %: 61.54%
Round 14 v Geelong (14 goals)
Top four: 7 (Riewoldt 3, Koschitzke 2, Milne & Schneider 1)
Others: 7 (Gardiner 4, S Fisher, Jones, McQualter)
Top four %: 50.00%
Round 15 v West Coast (13 goals)
Top four: 5 (Milne 4, Riewoldt 1, Koschitzke 0, Schneider DNP)
Others: 8 (Dal Santo 3, Eddy & McQualter 2, Ray)
Top four %: 38.46%
Round 16 v Adelaide (15 goals)
Top four: 11 (Milne & Riewoldt 4, Schndeider 2, Koschitzke 1)
Others: 4 (Gram, McEvoy, McQualter, Ray)
Top four %: 73.33%
Round 17 v Western Bulldogs (16 goals)
Top four: 11 (Milne & Riewoldt 5, Schneider 1, Koschitzke DNP)
Others: 5 (Gwilt 2, Dempster, Eddy, Gram)
Top four %: 68.75%
Round 18 v Sydney (13 goals)
Top four: 6 (Riewoldt & Schneider 2, Koschitzke & Milne 1)
Others: 7 (McQualter 2, Dal Santo, Gram, Gwilt, King, McEvoy)
Top four %: 46.15%
Round 19 v Hawthorn (10 goals)
Top four: 6 (Milne & Schneider 3, Koschitzke 0, Riewoldt5 DNP)
Others: 4 (Armitage, Jones, McEvoy, Steven)
Top four %: 60.00%
Round 20 v Essendon (16 goals) LOSS
Top four: 11 (Koschitzke, Milne & Schneider 3, Riewoldt 2)
Others: 5 (S Fisher & Armitage 2, Dal Santo)
Top four %: 68.75%
Round 21 v North Melbourne (8 goals) LOSS
Top four: 6 (Riewoldt & Koschitzke 3, Milne & Schneider 0)
Others: 2 (McQualter, Ray)
Top four %: 75.00%
Round 22 v Melbourne (17 goals)
Top four: 11 (Riewoldt 6, Koschitzke & Milne 2, Schneider 1)
Others: 6 (Dal Santo, Dempster, Gilbert, Gram, McQualter, Montagna)
Top four %: 64.71%
Qualifying Final v Collingwood (12 goals)
Top four: 9 (Riewoldt 5, Koschitzke 2, Milne & Schneider 1)
Others: 3 (McQualter 2, Goddard)
Top four %: 75.00%
Preliminary Final v Western Bulldogs (9 goals)
Top four: 5 (Riewoldt 4, Milne 1, Koschitzke & Schneider 0)
Others: 4 (Dal Santo, S Fisher, Hayes, McQualter)
Top four %: 55.56%
Grand Final v Geelong (9 goals) LOSS
Top four: 4 (Schneider 2, Riewoldt & Koschitzke 1, Milne 0)
Others: 5 (Dempster, Goddard, Hayes, Jones, Montagna)
Top four %: 44.44%
Games where top four goalkickers did not account for at least half of goals kicked:
Round 1 v Sydney (Riewoldt underdone)
Round 3 v West Coast (Goddard forward)
Round 4 v Fremantle (Koschitzke injured)
Round 10 v Melbourne (Milne out)
Round 15 v West Coast (Schneider out)
Round 18 v Sydney (Both Sydney games)
Grand Final v Geelong
We played ordinary football in all of the games above except for the first West Coast game, and the Grand Final.
Some other important things to note:
- McQualter was incredibly consistent. He kicked 22 goals in 24 matches this season, kicking goals in 18 of the 24 matches, and never kicking more than 2 (which he did four times).
- Geary kicked goals in four of the first five matches.
- Gardiner kicked his last goal of the year to win the Geelong match
As long as the opportunities created for some of the other players are not being taken from the big four, and we can add a couple of goals a week, we should be fine, and there is no desperate need for a much bigger spread of goals.
Goals kicked per game by our top four goal kickers v Goals kicked per game by other players
Round 1 v Sydney (12 goals)
Top four: 5 (Milne 3, Koschitzke 2, Riewoldt & Schneider 0)
Others: 7 (Dal Santo 2, Gardiner 2, Goddard, Gram, McQualter)
Top four %: 41.67%
Round 2 v Adelaide (15 goals)
Top four: 9 (Koschitzke 4, Riewoldt & Schneider 2, Milne 1)
Others: 6 (Gardiner, Geary, Goddard, King, Montagna, Ray)
Top four %: 60.00%
Round 3 v West Coast (25 goals)
Top four: 10 (Koschitzke & Milne 4, Riewoldt & Schneider 1)
Others: 15 (Goddard 4, Gardiner 2, Dal Santo, Dawson, Geary, Gram, Hayes, Jones, King, McQualter, Montagna)
Top four %: 40.00%
Round 4 v Fremantle (17 goals)
Top four: 6 (Riewoldt 5, Milne 1. Koschitzke & Schneider 0)
Others: 11 (Jones 3, Dal Santo 2, Gardiner, Geary, Goddard, Gwilt, McQualter, Montagna)
Top four %: 35.29%
Round 5 v Port Adelaide (15 goals)
Top four: 9 (Riewoldt 4, Milne 3, Schneider 2, Koschitzke DNP)
Others: 6 (Ball, Eddy, Geary, Gwilt, Hayes, McQualter)
Top four %: 60.00%
Round 6 v Western Bulldogs (14 goals)
Top four: 8 (Riewoldt 4, Schneider 3, Koschitzke 1, Milne 0)
Others: 6 (Dal Santo, Gardiner, Goddard, Gram, Gwilt, McQualter)
Top four %: 57.14%
Round 7 v Collingwood (20 goals)
Top four: 15 (Riewoldt & Schneider 5, Milne 4, Koschitzke 1)
Others: 5 (McQualter 2, Goddard, Gram, Jones)
Top four %: 75.00%
Round 8 v Essendon (13 goals)
Top four: 8 (Koschitzke 4, Riewoldt 3, Milne 1, Schneider 0)
Others: 5 (Ball, Geary, Gram, Hayes, McQualter)
Top four %: 61.54%
Round 9 v Brisbane (14 goals)
Top four: 11 (Koschitzke & Riewoldt 4, Milne 3, Schneider 0)
Others: 3 (Montagna 2, Gardiner)
Top four %: 78.57%
Round 10 v Melbourne (11 goals)
Top four: 5 (Riewoldt 4, Koschitzke 1, Schneider 0, Milne DNP)
Others: 6 (Goddard 2, Geary, Gwilt, McQualter, Ray)
Top four %: 45.45%
Round 11 v North Melbourne (15 goals)
Top four: 11 (Koschitzke 6, Riewoldt 3, Schneider 2, Milne DNP)
Others: 4 (Dal Santo, Gram, Gwilt, Jones)
Top four %: 73.33%
Round 12 v Carlton (16 goals)
Top four: 9 (Riewoldt 5, Schndeider 2, Koschitzke & Milne 1)
Others: 7 (Gram 2, Dal Santo, Dawson, Goddard, McQualter, Montagna)
Top four %: 56.25%
Round 13 v Richmond (13 goals)
Top four: 8 (Koschitzke 5, Riewoldt 2, Schneider 1, Milne 0)
Others: 5 (Ball, Dal Santo, Geary, Goddard, McQualter)
Top four %: 61.54%
Round 14 v Geelong (14 goals)
Top four: 7 (Riewoldt 3, Koschitzke 2, Milne & Schneider 1)
Others: 7 (Gardiner 4, S Fisher, Jones, McQualter)
Top four %: 50.00%
Round 15 v West Coast (13 goals)
Top four: 5 (Milne 4, Riewoldt 1, Koschitzke 0, Schneider DNP)
Others: 8 (Dal Santo 3, Eddy & McQualter 2, Ray)
Top four %: 38.46%
Round 16 v Adelaide (15 goals)
Top four: 11 (Milne & Riewoldt 4, Schndeider 2, Koschitzke 1)
Others: 4 (Gram, McEvoy, McQualter, Ray)
Top four %: 73.33%
Round 17 v Western Bulldogs (16 goals)
Top four: 11 (Milne & Riewoldt 5, Schneider 1, Koschitzke DNP)
Others: 5 (Gwilt 2, Dempster, Eddy, Gram)
Top four %: 68.75%
Round 18 v Sydney (13 goals)
Top four: 6 (Riewoldt & Schneider 2, Koschitzke & Milne 1)
Others: 7 (McQualter 2, Dal Santo, Gram, Gwilt, King, McEvoy)
Top four %: 46.15%
Round 19 v Hawthorn (10 goals)
Top four: 6 (Milne & Schneider 3, Koschitzke 0, Riewoldt5 DNP)
Others: 4 (Armitage, Jones, McEvoy, Steven)
Top four %: 60.00%
Round 20 v Essendon (16 goals) LOSS
Top four: 11 (Koschitzke, Milne & Schneider 3, Riewoldt 2)
Others: 5 (S Fisher & Armitage 2, Dal Santo)
Top four %: 68.75%
Round 21 v North Melbourne (8 goals) LOSS
Top four: 6 (Riewoldt & Koschitzke 3, Milne & Schneider 0)
Others: 2 (McQualter, Ray)
Top four %: 75.00%
Round 22 v Melbourne (17 goals)
Top four: 11 (Riewoldt 6, Koschitzke & Milne 2, Schneider 1)
Others: 6 (Dal Santo, Dempster, Gilbert, Gram, McQualter, Montagna)
Top four %: 64.71%
Qualifying Final v Collingwood (12 goals)
Top four: 9 (Riewoldt 5, Koschitzke 2, Milne & Schneider 1)
Others: 3 (McQualter 2, Goddard)
Top four %: 75.00%
Preliminary Final v Western Bulldogs (9 goals)
Top four: 5 (Riewoldt 4, Milne 1, Koschitzke & Schneider 0)
Others: 4 (Dal Santo, S Fisher, Hayes, McQualter)
Top four %: 55.56%
Grand Final v Geelong (9 goals) LOSS
Top four: 4 (Schneider 2, Riewoldt & Koschitzke 1, Milne 0)
Others: 5 (Dempster, Goddard, Hayes, Jones, Montagna)
Top four %: 44.44%
Games where top four goalkickers did not account for at least half of goals kicked:
Round 1 v Sydney (Riewoldt underdone)
Round 3 v West Coast (Goddard forward)
Round 4 v Fremantle (Koschitzke injured)
Round 10 v Melbourne (Milne out)
Round 15 v West Coast (Schneider out)
Round 18 v Sydney (Both Sydney games)
Grand Final v Geelong
We played ordinary football in all of the games above except for the first West Coast game, and the Grand Final.
Some other important things to note:
- McQualter was incredibly consistent. He kicked 22 goals in 24 matches this season, kicking goals in 18 of the 24 matches, and never kicking more than 2 (which he did four times).
- Geary kicked goals in four of the first five matches.
- Gardiner kicked his last goal of the year to win the Geelong match
As long as the opportunities created for some of the other players are not being taken from the big four, and we can add a couple of goals a week, we should be fine, and there is no desperate need for a much bigger spread of goals.
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bigcarl
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interesting stats punter. you've gone to a lot of trouble.ThePunter wrote:As long as the opportunities created for some of the other players are not being taken from the big four, and we can add a couple of goals a week, we should be fine, and there is no desperate need for a much bigger spread of goals.
one disturbing trend, i think, is our dependence on riewoldt in the finals.
without his five goals against collingwood and his four against the bulldogs we might well have gone out in straight sets.
and we all know what happened in the grand final with riewoldt blanketed.
a priority is to find a third tallish forward who can provide a marking target and kick goals as well as defend, imo.
preferably someone who can rotate through full forward and grab a goal if what we are doing isn't working on the day.
someone they will actually look for who isn't there purely as a defensive decoy.
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spert
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Hit the nail on the head -strength of the smalls. McQualter is still developing, and Schneider is OK, but we can't carry any more small forwards who can't break tackles.samoht wrote:The GF showed we lacked good strong medium sized forwards.
If you watch the last quarter when the Cats started to take control you'll see ..
Our talls may have brought the ball to the ground.. but
Our 3 small forwards(milne, Mcqualter ,schneider) wilted under tackling pressure - we have too many small forwards who weren't physically up to it.
I reckon we need to lose 2 of our smalls, replace them with slightly bigger, stronger medium sized players.
Whereas..
Ablett and Chapman on the other hand had the body strength to deal with the tackles, just arrogantly brush past our tacklers , barge through, hold their balance with sheer strength and do the damage.
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saintnick12
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This may be true, but Milne and Schneider still found themselves free enough to have won us the game earlier on had they finished better. Schneider kicked 2.3 and Milne 0.2 and one that didn't make it. On that type of day which went against the talls being able to dominate, the smalls had to take their opportunities...they got the ball but didn't finish. Other smalls also missed. Agree with you that need a good strong medium forward as an alternative to just talls and smalls.samoht wrote:The GF showed we lacked good strong medium sized forwards.
If you watch the last quarter when the Cats started to take control you'll see ..
Our talls may have brought the ball to the ground.. but
Our 3 small forwards(milne, Mcqualter ,schneider) wilted under tackling pressure - we have too many small forwards who weren't physically up to it.
I reckon we need to lose 2 of our smalls, replace them with slightly bigger, stronger medium sized players.
Whereas..
Ablett and Chapman on the other hand had the body strength to deal with the tackles, just arrogantly brush past our tacklers , barge through, hold their balance with sheer strength and do the damage.
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samoht
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good analysis, The punter .
McQualter and Milne may have been consistent over the year but what about the all important finals ?
Interesting that over the 3 finals our 3 small forwards kicked only 4 goals between them.
That means they kicked a paltry 1.33 goals on average between the 3 players.
So it seems when the going get's tough, our 3 small forwards effectively disappear or are rendered useless.
So it clearly shows ...
We need bigger, stronger medium sized forwards .. 3 small forwards are 2 smalls too many come finals time - we should still go in with 1 small perhaps.
McQualter and Milne may have been consistent over the year but what about the all important finals ?
Interesting that over the 3 finals our 3 small forwards kicked only 4 goals between them.
That means they kicked a paltry 1.33 goals on average between the 3 players.
So it seems when the going get's tough, our 3 small forwards effectively disappear or are rendered useless.
So it clearly shows ...
We need bigger, stronger medium sized forwards .. 3 small forwards are 2 smalls too many come finals time - we should still go in with 1 small perhaps.
