The Fox Report - Grand Final Edition

[rodgerfox]

Ok, here's what's going to happen on Saturday.....

Similar to the horses that run on MacKinnon Stakes Day then run well when backed up on the Tuesday in the Cup, having a tough leadup to the Granny is often a key factor.

Some spoilt footy fans reckon last Friday's game was boring. Most players and footy purists believe, and I quote Jon Brown, "it was the most intense game I've ever seen".

Compared to Saturday night which was void of pressure, the Friday winner I believe, gets an advantage.


Geelong are back slapping already. I get a hint of 'ahhh great we have all good players back so now it will all be Ok' from them.
It may be the case, as having key players in the team is critical to success - but having them fit is the key.

Is Johnson really fit? Surely Ottens isn't 100% 'Grand Final' fit? How's Chapman's hammy? And what about Rooke's thigh?

I'm sure our boys are carrying things too, the skipper the obvious one.

But I reckon Geelong will lose a player or two during the game.

In a way, last Saturday could have been a curse. Could Johnson have played out the game on Friday night? He got through the Saturday one cause it was like training.

So that's the first prediction. Geelong won't run out the match with a fit 22.


The second one is that it's going to rain. And that that falls into the category of us again, being lucky this year.

The big issue right now is that we aren't scoring well. Hasn't been an issue because we've been keeping our opponents from scoring too. The question is how the hell could we expect to keep Geelong to 7 goals in a GF?

The answer is - good defence, and some heavy rain!

Riewoldt and Lenny Hayes are outstanding wet weather footballers.


I also couldn't help but notice that when the Cats were pressured (for all of about 10 minutes for the entire match) that Collingwood made them look hopeless.

They really do rely on winning the nut in the D50 and running it out.

This is why I believe we may have altered our style. There was a comment made to Tom Harley on some footy show the other night along the lines of "In Round 14 it seemed that you guys worked out the Saints defence half way through the match and then were able to score pretty easily". He concurred.

I still wonder whether or not we tweaked how we move the ball forward after that, knowing that we'd be playing these guys in September, and that we needed to bring something else to the table?

Thrid prediction, is that Roo will be reasonably quite. Kosi will be the one that turns the match.
Scarlett will be the one given the license to run, whilst Taylor takes Roo and Harley and Milburn triple team him.

This will mean a couple of things....

- We go to Roo everytime and get smashed.
- We get smart about it and use other options like Milne and Schneider.
- That Kosi gets one-out if our mids are on top and carry the ball slightly deeper.

Really, in the end our mids need to at least break even, and our forward pressure needs to be top shelf - and our forwards need to take their chances!


So, the final prediction is this....

Saints by 26 points in quite a boring GF (for non-Saints fans of course).

The Cats will come out firing and look sharp. We'll hold firm due to our hard leadup to the game.
We'll stifle them, then they'll slow down due to carrying suspect players into the game - and their fear of failure will kick in.

We'll have a burst of 4 or 5 goals at some point in the 2nd or 3rd quarter then shut it down and grind out a famous win.


Oh, final prediction - I'll be rolling drunk by 6pm and won't see my family for a week.

[St Michele]

Sounds like a plan to me

[bergholt]

So that's the first prediction. Geelong won't run out the match with a fit 22.

I had a dream last night which involved Steven King putting a huge slinging tackle on Ablett. Ablett flew about five metres through the air and landed heavily. He didn't get back up.

Yeah, King might be suspended for a decade. But he's retiring anyway. And if it gets us a victory...

[Milton66]

No arguments from me. Go Saints!

[markp]

their fear of failure will kick in.

This is what I believe too... there will be a distinct point in the game when a palpable "oh sh!t" icy shudder goes through their entire team, and our boys will go for the kill like a pack of savage dogs.

[Joffa 5]

I love this thread

[Cairnsman]

what the OP said

[SainterK]

I had wondered that myself Roger, the hype surrounding their "fully fit and firing" list all coming together at the right time, has won many over.

Surely there is an opportunity to take advantage of the fact that quite a few have missed a bit of footy, I am not sure they could grind out the entire game if challenged. Quite often players return from injury to make an instant impact, and then over following weeks their peformances suffer as result of lack of match fitness.

Interestingly, lots of people believe our 3 small forwards will have much opportunity come Saturday. Last time they kicked 1 goal each, and I still maintain we need another forward option such as Gwilt.

[saint75]

I agree re-Ottens and Johnson. They have both missed substantial chunks of the season and don't have full match fitness. Was easy for them to run around and look good against a team that applied almost no pressure to them on Saturday night. They didn't have to work very hard. Johnson will not be able to play that well this week.

Also, they still seem to have some yips in front of the goals. Not easy to pick up last week against Collingwood, but the same goal shooting issues are there and under pressure in a low scoring, high pressure game where every goal will count, they will have trouble scoring. I can see them relying on their mids a fair bit to score.

Clinton Jones is also going to play a big role in this game. He will go to Ablett. His job on Ablett will be crucial to us.

I think you will also find that Milne and Schneider will be crucial to us for this game. They need to be at the feet of Kosi and Roo to pick up the crumbs as Roo and Kosi are going to have some very close scrutiny from the Geelong defenders. I think you will see big games from one of both of these players. Especially Schneider.

[Moods]

I agree about Kosi - however I can't see either of Kosi or Rooey kicking a bag. Kosi just has to be able to create genuine contests so that Milne and schneider have some opportunities at ground level. Our midfield has to at least break even. CJ is crucial on Ablett, Lenny and Dal just need to keep going the way they are, Joey has to step up more, and even BJ needs to do more. Need more from Gram and Ray as well. THose blokes can at least break even with their opponents I reckon we'll win. OUr backs have been great, despite criticism from some. Fisher has had a great series, Zac has been solid, and Raph really stepped it up last game. Bakes has been Bakes and Gilbo has been a bit shakey last game, but I'm confident that won't happen again. Blake has been good. All in all, just need to get it in there moreand give our fwds more opportunities.

P.S. - Don't agree about the weather favouring us though. Chapman, Ablett Selwood and Johnson thrive in wet, windy conditions.

[saintlee]

Great read Rog.....I agree with almost all of it....although I think Geelong do alright in the wet.....no real advantage or disadvantage there I think.....however if it helps to keep scoring low, we should win

[aussiejones]

The hype about Geelong has gone too far . They do have all their name players back in , but , the Collingwood game was no indication particularly the second half was just a training run. The first haf they were not impressive .

On the other hand the Saints had a tight game which will do no harm. If anything it will have emphasised the finals pressure experience. It will give Lyon the opportunity to reemphasize his message.

We are keeping the media lid on this week . Underdog status is fine.

We need to bring our best game obviously , however I believe we can step up and show that the Cats are overrated.

[spert]

Geelong to be in top form, need two players to be totally effective- Ablett and Scarlett. Scarlett needs to be kept back near the goals by his direct opponent so he has to contest big marks, and not to left to wander up to the half forward line when his opponent is not watching. We need to drill the ball deep into the forward line. Ablett will win a lot of the ball, but we will reduce his efficiency. The Magpie effort in the second quarter last week showed how Geelong's game goes a bit messy when the opposition forwards take a few strong grabs or keep the ball in the forward 50. The Magpie effort after half time was joke -I've never seen so little one-on-one pressure in final for a long time.

[InkerSaint]

Really, in the end our mids need to at least break even, and our forward pressure needs to be top shelf - and our forwards need to take their chances!

I'm confident about the last two, and nervous about the first.

We absolutely must break even with, or win, the contested ball.

Go you Sainters... give 'em hell.

[matrix]

even i have to say 'great read rodge'

heard it all week that when it rains it will suit the cats

ya reckon??
pffft
milne schneides eddy hayes ball dal joey bj all head over the cherry creating pressure pressure pressure and spillages

i see that as our advantage

come on sainters

[saintsRrising]

We are fitter than the Cat's.

Rain, hail or shine will not make a major difference though except to the Cat's fans who do not think we can play in the wet (we have played well in the wet this year)...though yes it may give us a slight stamina edge.

Our record away from Etihad is also better than it was at Etihad this year.

So the G , or playing outside holds no fear for our team.

What will bring our fitness advantage to fore though is a hard grinding 4 quarter game

This was the case in the Dogs match where both teams could hardly run in the last quarter , but we were a tad fitter than the very fit Dogs.


As the OP has noted the Cats are vulnerable when great pressure is applied. However few teams have done this.

That we can apply such pressure though...and importantly can apply it for a whole game.

This is the key to the Saints winning for I am confident that if we can deliver 4 quarters of pressure that we will win. part of this is sticking to our structures which are now habitual.


Hawkins looked good against the Pies...but he had little pressure applied to him....and as has been noted by the OP the Pies applied little pressure for most of the game...and were dominated.

Conversely less than intense pressure will allow the Cat's enough breathing space.

We need to push them to their limits so that they are spent. Once Ottens is exhausted we will be able to exploit him.

Once SJ is tired his skills will decline (again all those missed goals by the Dogs was not just due to the pressure, but also due to the fatigue that they were feeling).


TEAM play is what can win us the flag this year....for The Lyon Cage - Full Field Press or whatever you wish to name it only works by team executions.

A few weak links and holes open up that can be exploited.


Importantly too our midfield set-ups are crucial for the midfield is Geelongs main hope of winning ascendancy to win the game.

It is vital that we minimize the Cats having fast clearances and breaks from the centre.

This starts with Gardi and King. we need them to have the edge on Ottens and Blake...not necessarily bya huge margin...but enough to make the cats mids work hard.

Our midfield needs to bea UNIT.

I have noticed over the last 6 weeks that opposition clubs tend to pounce quicker on our players as they know that we will play on quicker. so we need to be clean...and CJ against the Dogs for example had great poise with his handballs.


I am expecting an epic battle...and am expecting that applied pressure and team play will win the day for us.

Roo may well now be the competitions MVP....but what will win us the game is all 22 doing their bit.

[reincarnated]

It is only a great read because we win. If Rodgerfox believed we would not win everyone on here would be on Rodgerfox's back whinging about how much of a doodle he is

[meher baba]

even i have to say 'great read rodge'

heard it all week that when it rains it will suit the cats

ya reckon??
pffft
milne schneides eddy hayes ball dal joey bj all head over the cherry creating pressure pressure pressure and spillages

i see that as our advantage

come on sainters

I don't agree with you or Rodger on this point: I reckon the rain will favour the Cats.

They are a superb team on wet grounds: as they should be, because they play on a them a hell of a lot more often than we do. Low-scoring games favour the Cats, because they like keeping things tight early on until their superior run through the midfield breaks down the resistance of their opponents, enabling them to pile on a few goals in a short period (usually in the third quarter or late in the second quarter). After this, they tend to go back to trying to keep things tight again. Because they have an extremely poor bunch of forwards (seriously, some VFL teams have better), they are trying to avoid end to end shoot-outs at any cost.

But I agree with the other points: I think that the Cats' walking wounded are going to be a major factor that helps us. Against our top class defence, I can't see a 60% fit Johnson having much of an impact. Ottens looked better to me, so he is a serious threat: but, if we can't neutralise him, then we don't deserve to win.

I also agree that how Kosi goes will be particularly important. As will our second string players like Gram, CJ, McQualter, Raph and ? (Eddy, Armo, Gwilt, Dempster or whoever): Geelong will have definite plans in place to hamper the impact of the likes of Riewoldt, Kosi, Dal, Lenny, Fisher, Milne, Schneider, etc., but you can't neutralise all 22 opponents (unless you are playing Freo this season ).

In grand finals, it is often some of the more unheralded players who step up and play match-winning games. I'm thinking Gram could be the go: perhaps it will be the one game in which all his kicks come off!!

[plugger66]

even i have to say 'great read rodge'

heard it all week that when it rains it will suit the cats

ya reckon??
pffft
milne schneides eddy hayes ball dal joey bj all head over the cherry creating pressure pressure pressure and spillages

i see that as our advantage

come on sainters

I don't agree with you or Rodger on this point: I reckon the rain will favour the Cats.

They are a superb team on wet grounds: as they should be, because they play on a them a hell of a lot more often than we do. Low-scoring games favour the Cats, because they like keeping things tight early on until their superior run through the midfield breaks down the resistance of their opponents, enabling them to pile on a few goals in a short period (usually in the third quarter or late in the second quarter). After this, they tend to go back to trying to keep things tight again. Because they have an extremely poor bunch of forwards (seriously, some VFL teams have better), they are trying to avoid end to end shoot-outs at any cost.

But I agree with the other points: I think that the Cats' walking wounded are going to be a major factor that helps us. Against our top class defence, I can't see a 60% fit Johnson having much of an impact. Ottens looked better to me, so he is a serious threat: but, if we can't neutralise him, then we don't deserve to win.

I also agree that how Kosi goes will be particularly important. As will our second string players like Gram, CJ, McQualter, Raph and ? (Eddy, Armo, Gwilt, Dempster or whoever): Geelong will have definite plans in place to hamper the impact of the likes of Riewoldt, Kosi, Dal, Lenny, Fisher, Milne, Schneider, etc., but you can't neutralise all 22 opponents (unless you are playing Freo this season ).

In grand finals, it is often some of the more unheralded players who step up and play match-winning games. I'm thinking Gram could be the go: perhaps it will be the one game in which all his kicks come off!!

Its funny but i think that a low scoring game favours us because we get them a lot more. Also think the wet favours us because they share the ball around more and handball more than us. also brings bally back into the game where he can be a very important player.

[reincarnated]

even i have to say 'great read rodge'

heard it all week that when it rains it will suit the cats

ya reckon??
pffft
milne schneides eddy hayes ball dal joey bj all head over the cherry creating pressure pressure pressure and spillages

i see that as our advantage

come on sainters

How are the above players going to give us an advantage. Geelong will put their heads over the ball as well. They are always very skilled and big players. So it offers no advantage to us when a player from either side goes at it hard, hopefully our player goes harder but thats all we can hope for

[matrix]

yes correct reincarnated

you are right
as usual
carry on

go saints

[InkerSaint]

It is only a great read because we win. If Rodgerfox believed we would not win everyone on here would be on Rodgerfox's back whinging about how much of a doodle he is

And why shouldn't we win?

Have an opinion on the subject either way?

And something else is bugging me... why did you choose the nick "reincarnated" when you constantly act as if you've "ascended"?

[reincarnated]

It is only a great read because we win. If Rodgerfox believed we would not win everyone on here would be on Rodgerfox's back whinging about how much of a doodle he is

And why shouldn't we win?

Have an opinion on the subject either way?

And something else is bugging me... why did you choose the nick "reincarnated" when you constantly act as if you've "ascended"?

After Friday's effort against a quick team Reincarnated has no doubt that our style/game plan/insert over-used football term can succeed against each of the 15 other clubs

Our only issue now is getting it to work against a team that has been dominate for a longer period than us and has played in a grand final before

If we play the game on our terms we win

If we do not then our natural attacking flair and our quality at the top of the list should keep us in it at least

[aussiejones]

"In grand finals, it is often some of the more unheralded players who step up and play match-winning games"

Who will it be ?? Someone who is overlooked in matchups or underrated by the opposition and able to stand up and do damage ...

McQualter , Ray , Gram, Schnieder , Clark , Milne

You cannot cover all players all the time .

Even throw Goddard down forward and Kosi back .....create some x factor play.

I am sure Ross has some contingencies for the GF and will not just direct a dour grind game plan.

One forlorn hope I have is to see more of our hard / multiple tackes from early in the year. But to hit them first you must catch them.....

[reincarnated]

"In grand finals, it is often some of the more unheralded players who step up and play match-winning games"

Who will it be ?? Someone who is overlooked in matchups or underrated by the opposition and able to stand up and do damage ...

McQualter , Ray , Gram, Schnieder , Clark , Milne

You cannot cover all players all the time .

Even throw Goddard down forward and Kosi back .....create some x factor play.

I am sure Ross has some contingencies for the GF and will not just direct a dour grind game plan.

One forlorn hope I have is to see more of our hard / multiple tackes from early in the year. But to hit them first you must catch them.....

Kosi is not moving anywhere. His best position is full forward so why change it now. X-factor play is garbage. You might argue that Grand Finals are littered with X factors in a few games however the majority have the best players playing well and come out winners

Goddard for Kosi is not a good swap. Kosi is not the cliched quarterback now?