Leigh Montagna could take home Brownlow Medal, statistician

saintnt · Post: # 788783Post **saintnt** » Wed 05 Aug 2009 12:18pm

Leigh Montagna could take home Brownlow Medal, statistician says
Mark Stevens | August 05, 2009 12:00am

http://www.news.com.au/heraldsun/sport/ ... 42,00.html

ST KILDA'S Leigh Montagna would take "Charlie" home if the Brownlow Medal count was held tonight, the AFL's official statistician says. Using the formula that identified Jimmy Bartel as tearaway winner in 2007 and Adam Cooney in last year's top three, Champion Data now has Montagna ahead of early fancy Gary Ablett.

Source: Herald-Sun.

matrix · Post: # 788784Post **matrix** » Wed 05 Aug 2009 12:24pm

thanks for that

im putting a tonne on him today
if he gets up, ill meet ya's at livewire/whitten

Dane Swan 2.60
Gary Ablett 4.50
Chris Judd 7.00
Joel Selwood 7.00
Leigh Montagna 9.00
Brendon Goddard 10.00
Nick Dal Santo 11.00
Paul Chapman 14.00
Jonathan Brow 17.00
Nick Riewoldt 17.00

https://www.sportsbet.com.au/sports/eve ... tID/910128
EDIT:
im guessing it wont be at the dome we will be having a frothy seeing as we wont play there

Wed 05 Aug 2009 1:24pm

i reckon Roo is good value at 17s ... blonde hair, inspirational, midfield numbers, leadership, marks, goals ... will get loads of 1s and 2s ... some 3s

SaintWodonga · Wed 05 Aug 2009 1:25pm

After all the wins we have had, we will see more Saints get votes then ever before. Whether we take too many votes off each other is a different matter all together.

Thinline · Post: # 788808Post **Thinline** » Wed 05 Aug 2009 1:31pm

Oddly, or not, I can see Hayes polling better.

His year has been absolutely brilliant.

perfectionist · Wed 05 Aug 2009 1:35pm

Thinline wrote:Oddly, or not, I can see Hayes polling better.

His year has been absolutely brilliant.

He would if I was giving votes, in fact, it would be tie between Nick and Lenny.

matrix · Post: # 788812Post **matrix** » Wed 05 Aug 2009 1:38pm

just call lenny Norm

bigcarl · Post: # 788814Post **bigcarl** » Wed 05 Aug 2009 1:38pm

i think dal santo's the one to watch.

he's eye-catching, highly skilled and a ball-player ... the type that umpires traditionally love. plus he has polled well before.

i watched rounds 1 and 2 again over the weekend and would be surprised if he doesn't get 6 votes for those two.

matrix · Post: # 788816Post **matrix** » Wed 05 Aug 2009 1:40pm

i have a bet with a mate (port twit

) that Dal will poll higher than any Port player in the Brownlow.

only $50

bigcarl · Post: # 788818Post **bigcarl** » Wed 05 Aug 2009 1:44pm

matrixcutter wrote:i have a bet with a mate (port twit ) that Dal will poll higher than any Port player in the Brownlow. only $50

if he polls like he deserves to your money will be safe.

i reckon he flies under the radar a bit on here because we all know how good he is and we've come to expect brilliance from him.

Premiers2009 · Wed 05 Aug 2009 1:47pm

if you were an umpire who would you give it to:-
some bloke that looks like he just crawled out of prison and uses the ball cheaply, or,
an italian stallion that runs his heart out each and every game.

would be easily the best endurance runner in the competition.
gets plenty of pill and runs, the kind of player umps admire simply because they cant keep up with him.

lets do a list of games that he would have scored in and we can help each other fill in the blanks --:

matrix · Post: # 788823Post **matrix** » Wed 05 Aug 2009 1:48pm

bigcarl wrote:
matrixcutter wrote:i have a bet with a mate (port twit ) that Dal will poll higher than any Port player in the Brownlow. only $50
if he polls like he deserves to your money will be safe.

i reckon he flies under the radar a bit on here because we all know how good he is and we've come to expect brilliance from him.

i have another Port mate who says Dal is our best player and wopuld snap the bloke up in a heartbeat
i said "better than Roo??"
he said "overated"

Premiers2009 · Wed 05 Aug 2009 1:49pm

i have some advice for you MC - dont hang around with d1ckheads.

Premiers2009 · Wed 05 Aug 2009 1:53pm

SYDNEY
ADELAIDE
WEST COAST
FREMANTLE
PORT ADELAIDE
WESTERN BULLDOGS
COLLINGWOOD
ESSENDON
BRISBANE
MELBOURNE
NORTH MELBOURNE
CARLTON
RICHMOND
GEELONG
WEST COAST
ADELAIDE
WESTERN BULLDOGS
SYDNEY

which games would he have scored in?

Premiers2009 · Wed 05 Aug 2009 1:57pm

Premiers2009 wrote:
SYDNEY
ADELAIDE
WEST COAST
FREMANTLE
PORT ADELAIDE
WESTERN BULLDOGS
COLLINGWOOD
ESSENDON
BRISBANE
MELBOURNE
NORTH MELBOURNE
CARLTON
RICHMOND
GEELONG
WEST COAST
ADELAIDE
WESTERN BULLDOGS
SYDNEY
which games would he have scored in?

i'll start with the bookend games against sydney where i reckon he would have scored at least five points, perhaps even six.

matrix · Post: # 788830Post **matrix** » Wed 05 Aug 2009 1:58pm

Premiers2009 wrote:i have some advice for you MC - dont hang around with d1ckheads.

i have to work with em mate
80% odd all port and crows

Premiers2009 · Wed 05 Aug 2009 2:00pm

matrixcutter wrote:
Premiers2009 wrote:i have some advice for you MC - dont hang around with d1ckheads.
i have to work with em mate
80% odd all port and crows

so your task MC, is how many points if any did he score against adelaide and port this year?

matrix · Post: # 788834Post **matrix** » Wed 05 Aug 2009 2:03pm

dunno dont care
ive got 200 coming for finishing higher than the crows and port on the ladder.

sucked 4 peeps in with that one

Premiers2009 · Wed 05 Aug 2009 2:10pm

that's fair enough.
Champion Data have him on 25 ahead of GAJ on 24.
i just think that five of them were against Sydney.
There are sixteen other rounds where he has scored twenty (20) points.
three or four of them would have been against WBD i reckon.
three or four against WCE aswell.
three or four against Adelaide
zero against geelong and collingwood (unless someone knows something that i dont)

that's between 14 and 17 conservatively by my count. anyone have anything else they would like to add?

Red · Post: # 788839Post **Red** » Wed 05 Aug 2009 2:24pm

I doubt any saint would win it as they are going to be stealing each others

votes. Hope I'm wrong but as we have 5 players in the favourites it will

depend who gets the 1 vote and who gets the 3.

I remember Brad Hardie saying that in 2005 when he won the medal he

polled in 8 games and the next year he polled in more games but only ever

received 1 vote in any game. Which season was his best?

Premiers2009 · Wed 05 Aug 2009 2:27pm

he kicked a goal against fremantle and had 30 when freo scored just 28 points. two votes.
no votes for the port game.
actually yeah he had 38 touches aginst collingwood. would have gone close with NDS in that game.
lenny hayes would have got 3 and kosi 2 v Essendon. joey 1 with 19 kicks and 28 posessions
against brisbane he would gone close 33, 21 kicks 2 goals.
riewoldt and fisher against melbourne
kosi against north with 6 goals, lenny with 32 touches
36 touches and 21 kicks against carlton. judd with only 20 riewoldt 5 goals (3pts)
richmond 0pts
geelong 0pts
had 43 against WCE in round 15\
adelaide round 16 0pts
WBD round 17 0pts

Premiers2009 · Wed 05 Aug 2009 2:30pm

Red wrote:I doubt any saint would win it as they are going to be stealing each others

votes. Hope I'm wrong but as we have 5 players in the favourites it will

depend who gets the 1 vote and who gets the 3.

I remember Brad Hardie saying that in 2005 when he won the medal he

polled in 8 games and the next year he polled in more games but only ever

received 1 vote in any game. Which season was his best?

by my calculations he is only losing points to:-
1. hayes
2. riewoldt
3. dal santo
4. fisher
5. goddard
6. gardiner
7. koschitzke
and in about only a handful of games.

HarveysDeciple · Wed 05 Aug 2009 2:31pm

Red wrote:I doubt any saint would win it as they are going to be stealing each others

votes. Hope I'm wrong but as we have 5 players in the favourites it will

depend who gets the 1 vote and who gets the 3.

I remember Brad Hardie saying that in 2005 when he won the medal he

polled in 8 games and the next year he polled in more games but only ever

received 1 vote in any game. Which season was his best?

It's a fair point, But Lions won brownlows in 2 of their 3 flag years and Bartel smashed them in 07.

spert · Post: # 788849Post **spert** » Wed 05 Aug 2009 2:57pm

If Roo remains in good form I think he will be our main man for the Brownlow not Monty -if ever a player looked like he was playing fairly and leading by example it is Roo, and the umps can't help but notice that kind of thing.

ausfatcat · Post: # 788852Post **ausfatcat** » Wed 05 Aug 2009 3:03pm

spert wrote:If Roo remains in good form I think he will be our main man for the Brownlow not Monty -if ever a player looked like he was playing fairly and leading by example it is Roo, and the umps can't help but notice that kind of thing.

Forwards every rarely get votes, Roo wont be top 5. And wont be the top saint.