a loss anyone......not for mine...

[stinger]

Saints' streak renews the debate on power of a loss

Dan Silkstone | July 22, 2009

SOMETIMES football can be perverse. Sixteen clubs devote each waking moment to one cause: winning. And yet, as each season's crescendo approaches, the football world argues over which teams might be better off doing just the opposite.

At both ends of the table this is true. At the foot we wonder whether it is nobler to tank for draft picks or to linger in mediocrity. At the top, a different chestnut: for a team on a winning streak, as St Kilda is this year, is it helpful to cop a loss?

"There's no rule in the rule book that says you have to lose," says Robert Shaw, who as a senior assistant at Essendon in 2000 coached a group that got closer than any in the modern era to the perfect form — an elusive 25-win season. Shaw believes the 2009 Saints are not as good as the Y2K Bombers, but sees plenty of similarities in the way they have dispatched all challengers. So far. "We believed the more you won, the harder it became to lose," Shaw says. "The pressure to us was really enjoyable and it drove us on."

And yet lose those Bombers eventually did. This year, as in 2000, the question again emerges: can a team go through a season undefeated? Collingwood did it in 1929, but that was an 18-round fixture, with no draft or salary cap and no away trip more distant than Geelong.

No club will admit to wanting a loss and St Kilda is no different. The Saints declined yesterday for a member of the coaching staff to even discuss the issue. But coach Ross Lyon has been firm all year: he will not "flirt with form" by resting players or easing off.

And yet the stats appear to show that a loss can help. Essendon's 2000 juggernaut was a snarling, ruthless machine driven by the pain of failure in 1999. It appeared on track for an undefeated season until a surprise loss to the Western Bulldogs in round 21. Kevin Sheedy now believes that defeat was needed to inspire the finals glory that followed. Shaw is not so certain but admits it helped. "It (the loss) was just a reminder that there are no guarantees," he says.

Sheedy's team at its best had a fanatical hunger for the ball. In the first 19 rounds of season 2000 Essendon lost the contested-possession count just twice. In round 20 it lost it by seven but still won against Carlton. Danger signs.

The next week it was beaten again for contested ball, losing the match this time to the super-flooding Bulldogs. How did the Dons respond? By coming out and winning the contested-possession count by 15 against Collingwood, then mauling their way to a flag.

Before the loss the Bombers had conceded 82 points a game. Terry Wallace's Bulldogs beat them with 92. For the remainder of the year they held opposition teams to 75. It is hard to avoid the notion that Sheedy's men played better after that famous loss than they had been immediately before it.

Shaw, though, says there was no complacency at Essendon because the club used the pain of 1999 as a motivator. Though he says the streak was never discussed openly, it did take over the club's focus for a while. "We were not relieved with the loss; we were really disappointed that we didn't create history," he says.

Another case is the 2007 Geelong team and its 15-match streak, broken in round 21 by a surprise loss to Port Adelaide. In the first 10 of those wins Geelong conceded just 64 points but in the month leading up to the Port loss that figure jumped to 76. The Cats had loosened.

For Mark Thompson's run-and-share side, uncontested possession was a barometer. In the month before the loss the Cats were accumulating an average of 54 more uncontested possessions than their opponent. Against Port this lead dropped to just 10 and the match was lost. A week later and for the rest of the season they lifted it to 64, as they took revenge against the Power in a lop-sided grand final.

A loss can prove a valuable circuit breaker, puncturing complacency and restoring hunger. But the crucial factor may just be when it comes. For both the 2000 Essendon and 2007 Geelong sides, defeat came in round 21, just before the finals. The rebound effect has a limited lifespan.

The 2008-model Geelong lends weight to that theory. That team did suffer the sort of stinging loss that would motivate any proud group — an 86-point pounding by Collingwood. But the loss came in round nine. Before that thumping, Geelong had averaged 117 points a match. Against the Pies they scored just 48. For the next seven weeks, the Cats responded, piling on 129 points a game. They were on a winning streak again. Another loss eventually followed. This time, in the grand final.

St Kilda fans will already know that pain, remembering the nine-match winning streak Stan Alves' Saints took into the 1997 grand final.

Geelong football manager Neil Balme believes these examples are coincidence. "You always look back depending on the outcome," he says. "But surely there is never a time when you want to lose." Balme does not subscribe to the idea that a loss can be cathartic, saying: "It's an absolute myth. When you do lose you always think it will be good for you. If you don't lose you would just not think that way."

Essendon won its premiership by remembering the pain of 1999, Geelong had decades of underachievement to spur it on in 2007. So, too, do the Saints, who as yet show no signs of faltering. For most of the league's history they have been the least successful of clubs. Understandable then, that they should cherish every win. Should they drop one, Lyon will not be happy. But would a loss assist their premiership tilt? The answer is maybe, perhaps, and who knows?

[markp]

I envy all the players and coaching staff inside the St Kilda bubble, cos it's raining horse sh!t out here.

[degruch]

Nice to see Robert Shaw admitting they were disappointed with the loss...to heard Hird and Sheedy talk about it, you'd think it was part of a strategic recovery program. The fact that it was an energetic, hard-fought game seems to be glossed over...I'd be pissed if I was one of the Doggies players, having their victory diminished as an Essendon pre-finals training run.

An important note is that both losses were late season, as continuity is important. I reckon the Dogs really paid for their late season drop in form last year, sucking confidence and momentum from their finals campaign.

[stinger]

shaw has always been a st kilda hater.....most bummers are......or just plainly dismissive of us......were the bummers a better team than the current saints...???/...well...until we win the flag...yes...if we do....no......they were averaging 82 points against......we are averaging 60 points against.......

[Eastern]

Going through the entire season (H & A + Finals) is an opportunity for this group to be known as;

THE GREATEST TEAM IN HISTORY

As a 2009 member, I can rightly claim to be a very small part of it. I say;

GO FOR IT !!

[yipper]

Going through the entire season (H & A + Finals) is an opportunity for this group to be known as;

THE GREATEST TEAM IN HISTORY

As a 2009 member, I can rightly claim to be a very small part of it. I say;

GO FOR IT !!

Spot on - and if we do it, I will personally shout you a drop of the finest beer at whatever venue we are heading to after the GF!! I will leave aussie at home on this occasion!!

[stinger]

Going through the entire season (H & A + Finals) is an opportunity for this group to be known as;

THE GREATEST TEAM IN HISTORY

As a 2009 member, I can rightly claim to be a very small part of it. I say;

GO FOR IT !!

i like your attitude.....

[degruch]

shaw has always been a st kilda hater.....most bummers are......or just plainly dismissive of us......

'Animals' anyone? Shaw would have been part of that Essendon team, wouldn't he?

Seems Sheeds and Hird are dismissive of everyone. "Oh yeah, 2000, we planned that loss so we could clean up in the finals". Puh-leeeze.

[saintsrus]

shaw has always been a st kilda hater.....most bummers are......or just plainly dismissive of us......were the bummers a better team than the current saints...???/...well...until we win the flag...yes...if we do....no......they were averaging 82 points against......we are averaging 60 points against.......

Spot on mate, anytime Shaw has said anything positive about us its always with a proviso that the other team didnt have so and so playing etc

[saintbrat]

team aren't planning to lose
http://www.saints.com.au/season2009/new ... fault.aspx

Riewoldt scoffs at loss theory
Luke Holmesby
4:42 PM Wed 22 July, 2009
Nick Riewoldt says St Kilda's mantra will be self-improvement in the run-up to the finals

ST KILDA skipper Nick Riewoldt has scoffed at suggestions the Saints will need to lose a game before the finals.

The Saints sit undefeated after 16 rounds but Riewoldt says the team feels no pressure to go through the season undefeated.

“I think it’s rubbish to be honest. It’s a gambler’s fallacy really. Every week we go into the game wanting to win, just like every other team,â€

[norwood97]

lets lose 4 rounds. i mean really tank it and put the sandringham saints on the ground. call up chanell 7 and make the squad watch every tape from 67 onwards (97 im looking in your derection)

Ross Lyon Rulz

[iwantmeseats]

Jesus, could we ask for a better captain? Could anyone? What a out and out leader/star/champion.

[stinger]

lets lose 4 rounds. i mean really tank it and put the sandringham saints on the ground. call up chanell 7 and make the squad watch every tape from 67 onwards (97 im looking in your derection)

Ross Lyon Rulz

learn to spell first....

[saintbrat]

audio link to Nick

http://podsentral.com/sites/default/fil ... %20pod.mp3

[norwood97]

******!

[Nick]

A loss would do us the world of good. Just like Essendon in Round 21 2000, ironically enough also against the Bulldogs. If we lose on Saturday night all the pressure will be released and the players will know that the flag is not yet in the bag.

[OneEyedSainter77]

A loss would do us the world of good. Just like Essendon in Round 21 2000, ironically enough also against the Bulldogs. If we lose on Saturday night all the pressure will be released and the players will know that the flag is not yet in the bag.

Bollocks. We don't need to lose games. These boys have their heads screwed on. We're going undefeated. Bookmark it

[saintly]

A loss would do us the world of good. Just like Essendon in Round 21 2000, ironically enough also against the Bulldogs. If we lose on Saturday night all the pressure will be released and the players will know that the flag is not yet in the bag.

am getting sick of your spamming. its enough already.