Our top 16 (warning: for stats junkies only)

[meher baba]

I have read a lot on here lately, and in the media as well, about the importance of the "bottom 6".

For a bit of variety, I've been having a bit of a think about our top 16, and how it has evolved over the past 6 seasons (ie, since we turned into a top team again).

I've looked at our performance over this period and have reached the unsurprising conclusion that there is an important link between the availability/fitness of players in this elite group, and our performances on field.

The history seems to be that we had a good, relatively fit top 16 in 2004, this deteriorated in 2005 and 2006, hit rock bottom in 2007, turned up again in 2008 and has been really good in 2009.

Some details for those who might be interested.

First of all, to define my top 16 and how it has evolved (and I appreciate that some would wish to change these listsaround the edges)

2004
Baker
Ball
Black
Dal Santo
Gehrig
Goddard
Hamill
Harvey
Hayes
Hudghton
A Jones
Kosi
Milne
Penny
Powell
Riewoldt

2005
In: S Fisher, Maguire
Out: Black (to Freo), Powell (deteriorating)

2006
In: Gram, Montagna
Out: A Jones, Penny (both retired)

2007
In: Blake
Out: Gram (2006 has been his best year by a country mile)

2008
In: Gilbert, King
Out: Hamill (retired), Maguire (stuffed by long-term injury)

2009
In: Dawson, Gardiner, Schneider
Out: Gehrig, Harvey (both retired), King (eclipsed by Gardiner)

ANALYSIS
I have used the concept of an "absentee rate", that is the percentage of non-apperances by top 16 players due to injury, suspension or - on a couple of occasions - being dropped for poor form.

2004: Absentee rate for the top 16 over the year was 14%. Key culprits/victims were Hudghton (missed 9), Kosi (missed 8) and Hamill (missed 7).
During the 10 game "streak", it was 12%, while during the 3 finals games we played, it fell to 0% (that is, we had our top 16 available for all 3 games).

2005: Absentee rate for the top 16 over the year was 19%. Key culprits/victims were Penny (missed 15), Hamill (missed 12), Kosi (missed 11), Riewoldt (missed 8) and Harvey (missed 7).
Remarkably, during the second half of the H&A season - when we won 9 out of 11 - it remained at 19%. During our two finals appearances, it rose to over 25 per cent. (In the PF we lost to the Swans, we were missing 4 of our top 16).

2006: Absentee rate for the top 16 over the year was 16%. Key culprist/victims were Kosi (missed 16), Hayes (missed 14), Hamill (missed 14) and Maguire (missed 6).
In the EF which we lost to the Demons, we rather amazingly got all of our top 16 other than Lenny and Goose onto the field, but several (Hamill, Kosi, Gehrig after half time) were playing badly injured.

2007: The darkest year for injuries. Absentee rate for the top 16 was 24%. Hamill didn't get on the field. Goddard was out for the season after 7 games. Goose limped around for 10 (which was probably 10 too many). Lenny and Ball were far from 100%. We missed the finals.

2008: Rather like 2005. Absentee rate for the top 16 was 18%, and this high rate continued even through our powerful run home of 8 wins from 10 from Round 13 (the round in which Dal and Milne were dropped).
Key culprits/victims were Baker (missed all but 2 games), Gehrig (missed all but 5 games and shouldn't have come back from retirement) and Ball (played 18 but then missed the last few rounds and all the finals). The other 13 had a pretty good run with injuries, and all played in all three finals: albeit that Kosi wasn't quite himself.

2009: In the 16 rounds so far, the absentee rate among the top 16 has only been 9%. If you thought that Hudghton is no longer in our top 16 (which is a tenable view) and replaced him with, say, Farren Ray, then the rate has only been 3%.
Better still, they have all been fit and firing (with the partial exception of Luke Ball in the last few rounds). Baker, Kosi and Lenny are back to their best, Dal has lifted, Gardi is the best he has been in years, etc.
We are clearly back in 2004 territory. Lets hope we can go 1 or 2 goals better relative to our opponents in the PF this time and then take it up a notch in the Grand Final!!

I hope someone finds this trawl through the stats interesting.

[BackFromUSA]

great analysis

[perfectionist]

So, Jason Gram, Clinton Jones and Farren Ray are not in your top 16? If those 3 are in our bottom 6 then we will win the flag by 20 goals.

[meher baba]

So, Jason Gram, Clinton Jones and Farren Ray are not in your top 16? If those 3 are in our bottom 6 then we will win the flag by 20 goals.

Jones and Ray are definitely on the verge of the top 16 IMO. You could put one of them in for Hudghton, but who would you leave out for the other?

I personally think that Gram is firmly in our bottom 6 ATM, although that could change if he could somehow regain his 2006 form.

[Saintschampions08]

Farren Ray, Jason Gram, Brendon Goddard, Nick Dal Santo, Leigh Montagna, Sam Gilbert, Farren Ray, Jason Blake, Stephen Milne, Adam Schneider, Jarryn Geary, Clinton Jones, Justin Koschitzke, Zac Dawson, Andrew McQualter. Michael S. Gardiner, Raphael Clarke...

I'm not going to go on.

These are all players who have performed better then their 2004 seasons (and i havn't named all of them). Quit dreaming, Quit comparing our 2004 players to now, they're different, the coach is different and so far the result is different.

[meher baba]

Farren Ray, Jason Gram, Brendon Goddard, Nick Dal Santo, Leigh Montagna, Sam Gilbert, Farren Ray, Jason Blake, Stephen Milne, Adam Schneider, Jarryn Geary, Clinton Jones, Justin Koschitzke, Zac Dawson, Andrew McQualter. Michael S. Gardiner, Raphael Clarke...

I'm not going to go on.

These are all players who have performed better then their 2004 seasons (and i havn't named all of them). Quit dreaming, Quit comparing our 2004 players to now, they're different, the coach is different and so far the result is different.

I'm not dreaming of or comparing anything. I'm talking about the fitness and availability of our top players.

Our list of top players has changed quite a bit since 2004. I haven't included the likes of McQualter, Raph, Geary, C Jones and others in our top 16, but there is no doubt that these guys have come on a long way under Lyon.

But one of the things that I am particularly loving about 2009 is seeing so many of our long-standing stars - Kosi, Dal, BJ, Lenny, Joey, etc. - fit and firing like they haven't been for years. This is a credit to Lyon and the fitness staff.

And that's really the bottom line of my lengthy post.

[Foz]

Great analysis.

I think as far as trends go, its right on the money - I dont think its importance to argue over who is the 15th best player and who missed at 17. This analysis backs up the conditioning/medical dept that seem to be doing a great job.

In a separate thread, there's probably scope to say that both bottom 6 and rookie listed players have provided an added dimension. This combined with the increased availability of the core group adds to improved performance.

[meher baba]

P.S., for those who continue to believe that I carry a torch for GT, I would point out that this analysis provides some evidence for the view that GT ran the top players into the ground - particularly in 2006 - and that it has taken a while for Lyon to get them back to reasonable fitness.

[Foz]

wonder what the Hawthorn 2009 stat is ?

[Saintschampions08]

Farren Ray, Jason Gram, Brendon Goddard, Nick Dal Santo, Leigh Montagna, Sam Gilbert, Farren Ray, Jason Blake, Stephen Milne, Adam Schneider, Jarryn Geary, Clinton Jones, Justin Koschitzke, Zac Dawson, Andrew McQualter. Michael S. Gardiner, Raphael Clarke...

I'm not going to go on.

These are all players who have performed better then their 2004 seasons (and i havn't named all of them). Quit dreaming, Quit comparing our 2004 players to now, they're different, the coach is different and so far the result is different.

I'm not dreaming of or comparing anything. I'm talking about the fitness and availability of our top players.

Our list of top players has changed quite a bit since 2004. I haven't included the likes of McQualter, Raph, Geary, C Jones and others in our top 16, but there is no doubt that these guys have come on a long way under Lyon.

But one of the things that I am particularly loving about 2009 is seeing so many of our long-standing stars - Kosi, Dal, BJ, Lenny, Joey, etc. - fit and firing like they haven't been for years. This is thanks to Lyon and the fitness staff.

And that's really the bottom line of my lengthy post.

You can't compare our 2004 list to our 2009 list, no matter how you try to do it.

Sure: Baker, Ball, Blake, Dal, Goddard, Hayes, Kosi, Milne, Montagna and Roo were playing back then (regularily) but basically none (except Baker and Ball) were as good as they are now.

Not to mention the rest of our players are much better then before, it's like comparing the saints of '66 to the saints of '09...it doesn't work.

Our team is completely different to any other, in strategy, ability and endeavor.

I'd say the improvement of the Jones, Montagna, Ray, Dawson, Gardiner, Schneider, Blake, Gilbert, Gram, Fisher etc...has been much more a factor then the improvement of Dal, Roo, Kosi etc.

The thread is made of crap, sorry...but in no way can you even consider comparing this team to the one of 5 years ago. They're differnet in every way..

[James]

Our best 22:

Hayes
Montagna
Dal Santo
Goddard
Ball
Jones
Riewoldt
Fisher
Gilbert
Hudghton
Koschitzke
Gardiner
Milne
Schneider
McQualter
Dawson
Gram
Blake
Ray
King
Baker
Dempster

Seriously, there isn't much of a gap between our best player and our 22nd. In fact, past Hayes, Dal Santo, Montagna and Goddard, I'd say they're pretty even.

[meher baba]

You can't compare our 2004 list to our 2009 list, no matter how you try to do it.

Sure: Baker, Ball, Blake, Dal, Goddard, Hayes, Kosi, Milne, Montagna and Roo were playing back then (regularily) but basically none (except Baker and Ball) were as good as they are now.

Not to mention the rest of our players are much better then before, it's like comparing the saints of '66 to the saints of '09...it doesn't work.

Our team is completely different to any other, in strategy, ability and endeavor.

I'd say the improvement of the Jones, Montagna, Ray, Dawson, Gardiner, Schneider, Blake, Gilbert, Gram, Fisher etc...has been much more a factor then the improvement of Dal, Roo, Kosi etc.

The thread is made of crap, sorry...but in no way can you even consider comparing this team to the one of 5 years ago. They're differnet in every way..

With respect, I still don't think you get the point. I'm not comparing anything about the 2004 and 2009 team except for the availability of the rather different lists of top players.

You are entitled to your view that our 2009 team is much better than the 2004 one. But, to bring a balanced perspective, you should surely have noted the fact that our 2004 team contained top draw players who are now retired such as Gehrig, Hamill, Aussie and Harves.

I tend to agree that the 2009 team is marginally better, but there isn't a lot in it. What I'm on about is that the top players in the 2004 team were generally fit and avaiable, as is the case now, but hasn't been for much of the intervening period.

[plugger66]

So, Jason Gram, Clinton Jones and Farren Ray are not in your top 16? If those 3 are in our bottom 6 then we will win the flag by 20 goals.

Jones and Ray are definitely on the verge of the top 16 IMO. You could put one of them in for Hudghton, but who would you leave out for the other?

I personally think that Gram is firmly in our bottom 6 ATM, although that could change if he could somehow regain his 2006 form.

I ilke it but Gram is in out top 10 and Cj could nearly be All Australian

[bergholt]

good thread, i reckon.

[meher baba]

Oh dear

The Tribunal has just tarnished the 2009 state a bit. Poor Zac

[saintsRrising]

good read MB

[saint66au]

Im pretty sure there was a post prior to Round 1 that, commenting on our percieved lack of depth, said something along the lines of "No side with Blake, Jones, Dawson, Gwilt and R Clarke in it will ever win a flag"

[rodgerfox]

Im pretty sure there was a post prior to Round 1 that, commenting on our percieved lack of depth, said something along the lines of "No side with Blake, Jones, Dawson, Gwilt and R Clarke in it will ever win a flag"

Why the rolling eyes?

Not sure who made the post you refer to, but I'd be staggered if an AFL team with those guys all in it won a flag.



And to add, the OP is correct - if not blatantly obvious.

We have average depth. Like every club. Depth is a myth.

Your best players must be playing well, and actually playing. You can look at game plans, structures, tactics, the players hairstyles, whatever. None of it matters - unless your best players are playing and playing well.

If we lose our good players, and are forced to have Jones, Geary, Eddy, Blake, Dawson etc. play 1st and/or second string roles on their own - we'll be back with the pack (infact probably behind the pack) very quickly.

The one difference between now, and the previous era that Meher Baba refers to, is that in the previous era we handled the loss of key players incredibly well. Remarkably well even.

This time around, I suspect (based on 2007, 2008) that we can't cover the loss of the stars.

[saint66au]

Im pretty sure there was a post prior to Round 1 that, commenting on our percieved lack of depth, said something along the lines of "No side with Blake, Jones, Dawson, Gwilt and R Clarke in it will ever win a flag"

Why the rolling eyes?

Not sure who made the post you refer to, but I'd be staggered if an AFL team with those guys all in it won a flag.



And to add, the OP is correct - if not blatantly obvious.

We have average depth. Like every club. Depth is a myth.

Your best players must be playing well, and actually playing. You can look at game plans, structures, tactics, the players hairstyles, whatever. None of it matters - unless your best players are playing and playing well.

If we lose our good players, and are forced to have Jones, Geary, Eddy, Blake, Dawson etc. play 1st and/or second string roles on their own - we'll be back with the pack (infact probably behind the pack) very quickly.

The one difference between now, and the previous era that Meher Baba refers to, is that in the previous era we handled the loss of key players incredibly well. Remarkably well even.

This time around, I suspect (based on 2007, 2008) that we can't cover the loss of the stars.

Well..every team we have fielded this year has included at least three, often four and occasionally all 5 of these players...and we are doin OK the last time I looked at the ladder

The post I was referring to didnt have these players "playing 1st or 2nd string roles", just in the side full-stop. Anyway, CJ is our No#1 tagger, Dawson and Blake key defensive players. Id argue they are 1st string anyway.

Is "covering our stars" something that just St Kilda is unable to do? Look at Geelong 2 weeks ago. A raft of stars out for whatever reason and they crash and burn. Every team is weaker with key players out, thats not rocket science. Hawthorn's first half of the year is also testament to that

Yes we covered our stars well in the "previous era" but the fact that we had to is becoming more obvious by the day as being caused by appalling injury management. maybe MB could provide us with some stats on that...but..that wouldnt suit both your agenda's would it?

[rodgerfox]

Well..every team we have fielded this year has included at least three, often four and occasionally all 5 of these players...and we are doin OK the last time I looked at the ladder

And has also included all of our best players. Our best players being fit also.

The post I was referring to didnt have these players "playing 1st or 2nd string roles", just in the side full-stop. Anyway, CJ is our No#1 tagger, Dawson and Blake key defensive players. Id argue they are 1st string anyway.

I still don't know why you had the rolling eyes.

CJ has been Ok. He's been beaten pretty comfortably by the elite mids. And again, if suddenly we needed him to win his own ball and use it well (in the absence of our other 5 or so gun mids) then we'd be rooted.

Dawson has been beaten pretty easily when left on his own. Blake has been pretty good.
Both are incredibly vunerable when our mids aren't dominating the midfield.

Both average footballers playing Ok in a side which protects them.

Is "covering our stars" something that just St Kilda is unable to do? Look at Geelong 2 weeks ago. A raft of stars out for whatever reason and they crash and burn. Every team is weaker with key players out, thats not rocket science. Hawthorn's first half of the year is also testament to that

Absolutely.

So why are we getting Ross Lyon cast in bronze again?

Really, all he has done (and he hasn't even don it himself) is keep our best players on the park.
Keep them on the park, and the rest takes care of itself.

Yes we covered our stars well in the "previous era" but the fact that we had to is becoming more obvious by the day as being caused by appalling injury management.

That's a completely different debate. And one in which I agree completely with you.

For whatever reason, we could not keep anything close to good side on the park for an extended period of time.

However even with this curse, we bucked the trend of bottoming out when we were fielding a reserves team (see Geelong in 06, Hawthorn in 09, St Kilda in 07 & 08 under Lyon, and so on and so on).

Oddly though, the Saintsational experts think the drafting of Robert Eddy and Clinton Jones, and the emphasis on 'team footy' is the reason for our great performance this year.

What garbage.

We have had the least injuries of any team in the comp this year - and on top of that have played teams when they have had good players out.

maybe MB could provide us with some stats on that...but..that wouldnt suit both your agenda's would it?

Agenda? WTF?

My 'agenda' (what a patheticly stupid term to use in reference to an opinion or view expressed on an internet forum) has always been the same....

I want the club I've supported for 30 years to do well. I'll continue to express my opinions and concerns when I see things happening that I feel aren't assisting that cause or 'agenda'.

I'll also gladly point out other posters' stupidity, naivety and ignorance when I see it. Which sadly, is incredibly often.


Pretty simple really.

[saint vince]

Yes we covered our stars well in the "previous era" but the fact that we had to is becoming more obvious by the day as being caused by appalling injury management.

That's a completely different debate. And one in which I agree completely with you.

For whatever reason, we could not keep anything close to good side on the park for an extended period of time.

However even with this curse, we bucked the trend of bottoming out when we were fielding a reserves team (see Geelong in 06, Hawthorn in 09, St Kilda in 07 & 08 under Lyon, and so on and so on).

Surely you are not saying that a prelim final is bottoming out?????

[rodgerfox]

Surely you are not saying that a prelim final is bottoming out?????

No, we scraped into the 8 and then the top 4 (by a whisker) once we had a full team on the park.

Until we did, we were a very ordinary side. And the ladder reflected this.

[saint vince]

Surely you are not saying that a prelim final is bottoming out?????

No, we scraped into the 8 and then the top 4 (by a whisker) once we had a full team on the park.

Until we did, we were a very ordinary side. And the ladder reflected this.

So when GT did he was bucking the trend and when Lyon did it we scraped into the 8 and then the top 4 with an ordinary side.

I am not a GT or Lyon lover I love the saints but ou can't honestly say that we bottomed oulast year. If you stick to your guns on this then you are more arrogant than I ver thought. Ask Melbourne if they think a prelim is bottoming out????????

[meher baba]

maybe MB could provide us with some stats on that...but..that wouldnt suit both your agenda's would it

Hey, don't drag me into this: I don't agree with anything rodgerfox is saying here.

I certainly think we could win a GF with Raph, Clinton, Blake, Dawson and R Clarke in it. I reckon we will see at least 4 of those guys in our GF team - possibly 5 - and we will win.

AFAIC, Blake and Dawson are clearly in our top 16 and Clinton is only just outside. I reckon Blake is the unsung hero of our winning streak: if people would stop focusing on the 1-2 mistakes he makes per game and look at what he does over 4 quarters, they might form a different view.

And I reckon our depth in 2009 is far better than it has been in living memory, perhaps ever. If you look at the teams of the GT era, we were pretty poor once you got outside the top 25 or so. The way we used to cover for injuries then was to select our least injured players.

This season, we have had the luxury of being able to drop Geary (who would walk into at least half the teams in the comp), Gwilt (who played his best two quarters of football before he was dropped), Raph (BOG in a final last year) and Ball (whom nobody can deny is a top quality player) and Eddy (who has performed reasonably well in plenty of winning AFL teams, including in a finals game).

We haven't even considered selecting Maguire (99 AFL games), Leigh Fisher (once an automatic selection in our top 22), Armitage (first round draft pick who has looked to be close to AFL standard), etc.

Please don't accuse me of having an agenda. I don't and never have. Posters frequently accuse me of carrying a torch for GT, hating Lyon, etc., but you firstly need to consider who all these posters are and the agendas they might be running.

[rodgerfox]

So when GT did he was bucking the trend and when Lyon did it we scraped into the 8 and then the top 4 with an ordinary side.

I am not a GT or Lyon lover I love the saints but ou can't honestly say that we bottomed oulast year. If you stick to your guns on this then you are more arrogant than I ver thought. Ask Melbourne if they think a prelim is bottoming out????????

What the hell??

No, read what I wrote.

Lyon didn't 'do it'. We were useless until we had a full team available.

We didn't make a prelim with key players out. We made a prelim by winning several games at the tail end of the season once Lyon had a full list to work with.