An Intresting Stat re. Grand Final Winners

[Sam23]

Results of the last game the teams in the Grand Final played.

2008: Geelong beat Hawks (Rd 17)
2007: Port beat Geelong (Rd 21)
2006: Swans beat Eagles(QF)
2005: Eagles beat Swans (QF)
2004: Brisbane beat Port (Rd 11)
2003: Collingwood beat Brisbane (QF)
2002: Collingwood beat Brisbane (Rd 8?)


Tank Rd 14?

[plugger66]

Results of the last game the teams in the Grand Final played.

2008: Geelong beat Hawks (Rd 17)
2007: Port beat Geelong (Rd 21)
2006: Swans beat Eagles(QF)
2005: Eagles beat Swans (QF)
2004: Brisbane beat Port (Rd 11)
2003: Collingwood beat Brisbane (QF)
2002: Collingwood beat Brisbane (Rd 8?)


Tank Rd 14?

Just like every side we played the next week were winning. It is called coincidence.

[saintsRrising]

2007: Port beat Geelong (Rd 21)
?

Geelong also beat PA in Round 9

[perfectionist]

It is an interesting stat and goes a long way back too. For anyone who can remember, the game before the 1966 GF between St Kilda and Collingwood, also had the opposite result. It is not a coincidence. In fact, it would only be coincidental if the losing team took no steps to reverse the result. In 1966, the selectors took one consequential and vital decision following our loss to Collingwood in the 2nd semi. They brought in John Bingley, who had played just 7 games in '65 and '66, to tag Des Tuddenham who had kicked 7 in the 2nd semi. Des still kicked 3 goals in the GF but was nowhere the influence that he was in the 2nd semi. John Bingley went back to Tassie after "that" match - a premiership in his bag.

[bigcarl]

what about 1971?

hawthorn beat us by 2 points in the second semi and by 7 in the grand final. they also beat us by 23 points in round 15 that year.

interesting stats, but there's no real pattern.

the only thing you can say with any certainty is that the team that kicks the highest score will win.

[Sam23]

what about 1971?

hawthorn beat us by 2 points in the second semi and by 7 in the grand final.

interesting stats, but there's no real pattern.

the only thing you can say with any certainty is that the team that kicks the highest score will win.

Well the past 7 grand finalist lost their match against their opponent the last time they played them.

Seems like a bit of a pattern to me?>

[plugger66]

what about 1971?

hawthorn beat us by 2 points in the second semi and by 7 in the grand final.

interesting stats, but there's no real pattern.

the only thing you can say with any certainty is that the team that kicks the highest score will win.

Well the past 7 grand finalist lost their match against their opponent the last time they played them.

Seems like a bit of a pattern to me?>

All it means is that it is getting closer to side that wins the last time they played will also win the GF.

[bigcarl]

what about 1971?

hawthorn beat us by 2 points in the second semi and by 7 in the grand final.

interesting stats, but there's no real pattern.

the only thing you can say with any certainty is that the team that kicks the highest score will win.

Well the past 7 grand finalist lost their match against their opponent the last time they played them.

Seems like a bit of a pattern to me?>

i wouldn't read too much into it.

[Sam23]

2007: Port beat Geelong (Rd 21)
?

Geelong also beat PA in Round 9

Please re read the first post.

[jonesy]

Could it be the year the club that has won only one flag finally win there second?


The cats beat the dogs 3 weeks ago,interesting....

[Sam23]

what about 1971?

hawthorn beat us by 2 points in the second semi and by 7 in the grand final.

interesting stats, but there's no real pattern.

the only thing you can say with any certainty is that the team that kicks the highest score will win.

Well the past 7 grand finalist lost their match against their opponent the last time they played them.

Seems like a bit of a pattern to me?>

i wouldn't read too much into it.

haha im not!

just an interesting pattern.

[perfectionist]

The stat shows, that when teams are close in ability, and that is often the case in GFs, then planning is important. And the most recent game between the two teams would be an excellent place to start. Only a complete idiot would suggest that coaches should ignore the last game between the two teams and then say that a reversed result was "just coincidence".

[saintsRrising]

2007: Port beat Geelong (Rd 21)
?

Geelong also beat PA in Round 9

Please re read the first post.

Please read that Geelong also beat PA that year in Round 9.

My point being that they played 3 times and the Cat's won twice.

[saint75]

Nothing better than beating the stats. I say we win them all and don't drop a game! The thought of a 25 game streak is quite appealing......

[Enrico_Misso]

Assuming all goes to plan and the most likely scenario happens and we play Geelong in the GF....

The odds of either team winning both games is less than the chance of a split result.
And if the games are split, I know which one I'd prefer to win.

[emmdee]

an "honourable" R14 loss would certainly take pressure off us & load it onto the cats, IMHO. A part of me wont be too concerned if we have a close loss (can't believe i am saying this OMG).

[Griggsy]

I just hope it is close. A match that can go either way and we lose I can live with. On the other hand if we win I don't care by how much. Would be great to embarass the catters.

[Thinline]

I believe we should make our own history.

[plugger66]

The stat shows, that when teams are close in ability, and that is often the case in GFs, then planning is important. And the most recent game between the two teams would be an excellent place to start. Only a complete idiot would suggest that coaches should ignore the last game between the two teams and then say that a reversed result was "just coincidence".

Of course its coincidence. Lets go all the way back to 1897 and see who wins the last game before the GF and if its 60% or higher I will go with you but just to pick the last 7 years and say there is a pattern isnt correct. Also you picked 1966 so it must be true.

2 of the games were round 8 and 11. Far to early to get any guide at all.

Anyway it means nothing as the Cats/Saints game may not even be the GF teams. That may have already come and gone.

[perfectionist]

You see, I was right!

[bergholt]

Of course its coincidence. Lets go all the way back to 1897 and see who wins the last game before the GF and if its 60% or higher I will go with you but just to pick the last 7 years and say there is a pattern isnt correct. Also you picked 1966 so it must be true.

i wouldn't be drawing any conclusions from stats in 1897. otherwise we'll start making the claim that kicking more than 20 points a game is a pretty good score. the last seven years are a lot more relevant than the aggregation of the first hundred because the game changes over time.

[plugger66]

Of course its coincidence. Lets go all the way back to 1897 and see who wins the last game before the GF and if its 60% or higher I will go with you but just to pick the last 7 years and say there is a pattern isnt correct. Also you picked 1966 so it must be true.

i wouldn't be drawing any conclusions from stats in 1897. otherwise we'll start making the claim that kicking more than 20 points a game is a pretty good score. the last seven years are a lot more relevant than the aggregation of the first hundred because the game changes over time.

The point the other person is saying is the side that loses learns from the loss and changes things to try and change the result next time they play. Why wouldnt that have happened years ago.

I do agree the other sides would learn from the previous games just saying it is a coincidence that the side that lost the last game have won the GF in the last 7 years.

[bergholt]

The point the other person is saying is the side that loses learns from the loss and changes things to try and change the result next time they play. Why wouldnt that have happened years ago.

probably because there was no coaching staff, just a player-coach. and everyone in the game worked full-time. there's a big difference between full-time professional footballers with video analysis and heaps of support staff, and amateurs playing for fun.

I do agree the other sides would learn from the previous games just saying it is a coincidence that the side that lost the last game have won the GF in the last 7 years.

yeah, i mostly agree. but seven years is quite a long coincidence - it's possible to toss a coin seven times and get heads each time, but the probability of that happening is 1/128. and it's especially surprising because you'd expect the bias to be the other way.

[bigcarl]

well it might be a trend of sorts in recent history, but i wouldn't count on it as a hard and fast rule.

[perfectionist]

Yes, that's right. There is a big difference between "coincidence" which it certainly isn't, and "perfect prediction" which it also isn't. Unlike tossing a coin, the outcome of a footy game is not a random event. The original stat is "interesting" as the poster said. It does not mean that if we lost to Geelong in Round 14 then we would beat them in our next meeting or vice versa.

The stat does indicate that, with the high concentration of tactics these days, and with teams which are close together in terms of ability, one game can be viewed as a learning example by the loser. The big surprise, as I said earlier, would be if teams did NOT do this.

Of course, the best laid plans can come to nought if something unsuspected happens. Alas, this was the problem in 1971. The plan was to "nullify" Peter Hudson, interpreted by Cowboy as a KO if the opportunity arose and it worked. As it turned out, he needed to KO Bob Keddie as well. No-one planned for that.

And speaking of what ifs, in that game, in the third quarter, we were four goals up with five minutes to play and Barry Breen had a running shot for goal which hit the post. We would have been five up at that stage. Minutes later, just before the siren, Leon Rice, the only player on the Hawks forward line, had a left foot shot from the boundary which rolled through, reducing the margin to 20 points - an achievable target as it turned out.